000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
633 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become centered along the southeast coast
tonight. Dry weather and a warming trend will prevail this week
as the high becomes centered offshore. A cold front will
approach from the northwest on Friday and cross the local area
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

Strong sfc high pressure (~1035mb) is currently centered just
off the coast of GA/SC. Aloft, NW flow prevails in between a
retreating upper trough over Atlantic Canada and a broad upper
ridge centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and southern
Plains.

Dew point temperatures have started to rebound with the loss of
heating/mixing this evening but will remain in the 20s away from
the coast tonight. Winds have begun to decrease as well this
evening. Overnight low temps fall into the low and mid 30s under
mostly clear skies.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EST Monday...

The warming trend begins in earnest on Tue as the sfc high moves
farther off the SE coast and the flow aloft flattens out/becomes
more from the W. The low level flow will generally be out of
the SSW or SW on Tue, allowing highs to warm into the upper 60s
to near 70F for most of the local area (lower 60s at the
immediate coast of the eastern shore). Skies will be mostly
sunny (with just some high clouds possible Tue aftn). Lows Tue
night will be in the upper 30s- low 40s under partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies. The models show another upper trough diving
SE through northern New England and off to the Canadian
maritimes Tue night into Wed, and this may allow winds near the
coast to shift more to the SSE on Wed, with highs Wed near the
coast on the eastern shore probably a few degrees cooler than
Tue. Highs W of Ches Bay will be into the lower 70s Wed. Min RH
values Tue are expected to be in the 20-30% inland and W of the
Bay to 30-35% for most of the Ern Shore on Tue and 25-30% well
inland/35-45% near the immediate coast on Wed. Although fine
fuels are drying out and RH values will meet or exceed increased
fire danger thresholds in many areas, headlines do not appear
likely given the current forecast for fairly light winds on Tue
and Wed. However, will keep monitoring Wed for the potential for
headlines if winds end up stronger than currently expected well
inland where it will be drier/warmer.

The next upper trough moves into the north central CONUS Wed
night/Thu, with the upper level ridge centered from the Gulf of
Mexico to the Carolinas. At the sfc, strong high pressure will
be centered just off the mid-Atlantic/SE US coast Wed night/Thu.
With a W to SW flow aloft and a SW flow in the low levels,
temperatures will warm well above avg (though not to record
levels). Mostly clear Wed night with lows mostly in the 40s,
followed by mostly sunny conditions Thu with highs in the mid
70s in most areas (mid 60s to lower 70s eastern shore). With
the somewhat breezy/well mixed airmass on Thu, a continued
potential for increased fire danger exists as dew points tend to
be slow to moderate this time of year (only into the upper 30s
to mid 40s). The current dew point forecast would result in min
RH values in the 30-35% range in most areas (slightly higher on
the Ern Shore). Mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Monday...

The medium range period continues to feature good model
consensus for the Fri period, and therefore confidence in this
portion of the forecast is high. Another warm day is expected
on Fri as the latest 12Z/08 deterministic models and their
respective ensembles keep a SW low level flow going as the upper
ridge will be slow to break down. However, the ECMWF and GFS
are forecasting some light pre- frontal showers across mainly
N/NW portions of the FA during the aftn and evening. Largely
followed the NBM 75th percentile for highs Friday, which gives
highs into the mid to perhaps upper 70s central/south (and a
few degrees cooler N). Have slight chc PoPs NW during the second
half of Fri. Mainly dry wx is expected late Fri evening- late
Fri night.

For the upcoming weekend, forecast confidence is better than 24
hrs ago but still not real high given that there is still a lot
of model spread with regard to timing and spatial differences
with the approaching cold front. Will continue to remain close
to the NBM 50th percentile and yields a frontal passage during
the day Sat, with highs ranging from the upper 60s/near 70F
across the far south to the mid-upper 50s NE. This will almost
certainly need to be fine tuned as we get closer in time. If the
front does cross the area during the day, there is the
potential for temperatures to quickly drop into the 50s
immediately following the FROPA (especially near the coast).
However, will not get too detailed with respect to exact timing
this far out. Given the uncertainty and with the front expected
to lose moisture as it moves into the local area, PoPs will be
capped at 20-30% and confined mainly to the day Sat and beyond.
Lows in the 40s Sat night and highs Sun mostly ranging through
the 50s. Will maintain 20% PoPs most areas per the NBM, though
the deterministic GFS/ECMWF are now stronger than their
ensembles and actually build sfc high pressure into the region
from the N. Skies will avg mostly cloudy Sat/Sat night and
variably cloudy Sun. Moisture looks to increase again by mon/mon
night so will have poPs rising to ~30% by mon aftn. Lows in the
30s to low 40s and highs Mon in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

VFR flying conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z
TAF period. Winds remain out of the SW and have fallen below 5
kt across the region. Will show light and variable winds area-
wide tonight with SW flow 5-10 kt resuming by mid morning
Tuesday.

Outlook...
VFR conditions continue through the end of the week as the high
becomes centered off the SE coast. Winds will tend to increase
and may become somewhat breezy from the SW (mainly during the
day) Thu- Fri. A cold front will bring more clouds and at least
a low chance for showers by Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EST Monday...

This afternoon, high pressure is centered along the GA/SC coastlines
and remains in control of the local weather pattern. Winds are light
and variable (primarily out of the W to NW), generally around 5
knots across the Bay/Rivers and 5 to 10 knots across the coastal
waters. Seas are around 1 to 2 feet while waves in the Bay are 1
foot or less. High pressure will drift farther off the SE coast
tonight into tomorrow with winds becoming S to SW as a result. High
pressure will linger off the SE coast through midweek before a cold
front slowly approaches from the NW later Thursday through Friday.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight into
Thursday morning. SW winds increase by Thursday afternoon due to the
tightening pressure gradient, with SCA conditions possible mainly
for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters Thursday
afternoon into Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB