083
FXUS61 KAKQ 161133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
633 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures moderate later today through Saturday. Dry weather
prevails through Friday night with rain chances increasing on
Saturday. Another low pressure system will bring a chance for
rain and snow to the area on Sunday. Much colder weather is
expected by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds with a slight chance of a snow shower
  (north) today as a clipper system tracks to the north of the
  area.

- Cold tonight with lows in the 20s.

High pressure is centered over the area early this morning with
clear skies, light winds, and widespread mid teens-lower 20s. The
flow aloft is WNW with a clipper system tracking through the Great
Lakes. The surface high is progged to move offshore today while that
clipper system tracks to our north across PA/NJ before moving
offshore tonight. Clouds will increase ahead of that system, with
skies becoming mostly cloudy to overcast by midday. The bulk of any
precipitation will likely remain north of our area, but still think
there is the potential for a few flurries/light snow showers across
the VA Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore during the
afternoon/early evening hours. No accumulation is expected with
these snow showers or flurries. Winds become SSW at 10-15 mph today
with the high moving offshore, but it will still be cool with highs
ranging from the upper 30s north to mid 40s central/south. The
clipper system will drag a seasonably strong (but certainly not
Arctic) cold front through the area early tonight. Some of the
guidance is hinting at the potential for a few light rain showers
across E/SE VA ahead of that front from 6-10 PM...but will leave
this out of the forecast given how dry the low levels will be
(especially farther south). Otherwise, skies clear out tonight
behind the front as winds become W-WNW at ~5 mph. Lows fall into the
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near average temperatures are expected on Friday and Saturday.

- Rain chances increase Saturday as a cold front approaches the
  area. However, rainfall amounts will likely be less than
  0.10" in most locations.

Seasonable, dry, and sunny wx (with light winds) is expected on
Friday as high pressure builds over the area. Forecast highs are in
the lower 40s on the eastern shore with mid-upper 40s elsewhere. The
high will shift offshore by Friday night. Attention then turns to a
stronger low pressure system that is progged to track from Ontario
into Quebec from Fri night-Sat. This feature will drag a cold front
toward the area...but this front won`t cross the FA until Sat
evening/night. Meanwhile, a southern stream shortwave will track
from the Deep South through the Carolinas, and NWP models continue
to show a weaker, secondary sfc low tracking well to our south on
Saturday (in association with that southern stream shortwave). In
terms of sensible wx, this will bring a chance for rain to the area
during the day on Saturday, although rain amounts don`t look like
much. For now, have high chance to likely PoPs during the
day...tapering to slight chc Sat night. P-type will mainly be rain
(although light snow could briefly mix in at the onset across
Louisa/Fluvanna Counties). While ensemble guidance shows a high
chance of measurable precip Sat/Sat night, EPS/GEFS probabilities
for at least 0.10" are no higher than 20-30% across much of the FA.
Forecast highs on Sat are in the mid 40s-lower 50s after temps start
out in the mid 20s-lower 30s for lows. Lows Sat night are expected
to be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Chance of rain turning into snow Sunday into Monday with a cold
  front.

- Chilly Arctic airmass moving in early next week with highs below
  freezing Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Monitoring the potential for next system mid to late next week for
  wintry precipitation.

Low pressure over northern Canada will move eastward bringing a cold
front through the area Sun and strong CAA behind it. A weaker low
over the Deep South will move in conjunction with the stronger low,
strengthening once offshore the Carolinas. As the low strengthens,
and with the cold air of the front, a chc of rain/snow is possible
Sun into Mon morning. Precip will likely start off as a rain/snow
mix and then transitioning into snow for the majority of the area
Sun night. The 00z/16 ensemble runs for the ECMWF and GFS probs for
1" of snow has increased to 40-50% for a line NE from the southern
piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore. Ensemble probs for 3" of snow
remains below 15%. Confidence is growing for this event, however,
continue to monitor the forecast.

High pressure will then dominate the eastern half of the US with a
cold, dry Arctic airmass until mid next week. There is some signals
that a low pressure from TX could bring wintry precip across the SE
US mid to late next week. The track of this low pressure is still
unknown as the GFS ensemble keeps the track to the S of the FA,
while the ECMWF ensemble tries to bring it further north by having a
weaker high pressure beforehand. Tend to lean towards the ECMWF
ensemble over the GFS as it seemed to have a better handle on the
previous two winter systems days out to the day of the event. This
being said, current snowfall probs for 1" with the ECMWF ensemble
show 50-60% across the SE VA/NE NC and 40-50% for 3" probs. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with this event and will be closely
monitored.

With the cold front moving across the area Sun, temps won`t warm up
much during the day as strong CAA moves into the area with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. From there, temps will plummet with Sun
night lows from 15F-25F. Highs Mon will be colder in the mid 20s
towards the piedmont to 33F in SE VA/NE NC. Tues will be the coldest
day of the week with highs near 20F in the piedmont and Eastern
Shore to the upper 20s in SE VA/NE NC. Wed will continue to be cold
with highs in the lower 20s to near 30F. Overnight lows will be in
the single digits for the majority of the area. Thurs will be
slightly warmer with highs above freezing again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the 12z/16
TAF period. Cloud cover will begin to increase from the west
today as a clipper system dips down across the northern Mid-
Atlantic region. Skies will become BKN-OVC by 14-16z, but CIG
height will remain VFR with bases between 5-10 kft. Winds will
become SSW at 10-12 kt (with occasional 15-20 kt gusts). No
precipitation is expected with this feature...but cannot rule
out a few flurries/light snow showers at SBY late this
afternoon-this evening. Skies begin to clear tonight as the
system moves offshore and a cold front moves through the region.
Winds become W-WNW at ~5 kt tonight behind the front.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Friday. A low
pressure system will likely bring rain to the terminals from
Sat-Sat night, along with a period of sub-VFR conditions.
Increasing chances for light rain/snow on Sunday/Sunday night
may bring sub-VFR conditions during this period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A short-duration Small Craft Advisory has been issued tonight
  for the Chesapeake Bay and most of the coastal waters for
  elevated WNW winds in the wake of cold front.

- Much quieter marine conditions expected Friday through most of the
  weekend.

High pressure over the area has led to a further decrease in the
winds this morning. While there are still occasional gusts to 15-20
kt in the northern bay, expect sustained winds 10 kt or less by
sunrise. Seas are hovering around 2 ft, except ~3 ft S of the NC/VA
border.

Winds shift to the SW or SSW later this afternoon as the transient
high shifts offshore and a weak cold front approaches from the W.
Wind speeds also increase to ~15 kt this afternoon as a relatively
weak low-level jet moves overhead. This could allow for a period of
20-25 kt gusts through early this evening, highest on the coastal
waters. The transient nature of this precludes headlines for this
afternoon/evening. There is higher confidence in a quick period of
marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight behind the front as
winds shift to the WNW given 925 mb winds around 30 kt, pressure
rises of 4-5 mb/6 hr, and the cold advection/efficient mixing.
Forecast winds are 15-20 kt in the bay and 15-25 kt on the coastal
waters, with gusts 25-30 kt. Have raised SCA flags on the bay and
most of the coastal waters from 03z/10 PM this evening through
Friday morning. Decided to leave out the northernmost ocean zone
given we fall just shy of criteria up there, but it could be added
later today if winds trend up some. Given the short period of
elevated winds and the offshore wind direction, seas are likely to
stay below 5 ft. Winds slacken considerably later Friday as another
high pressure system moves overhead and sub-SCA conditions likely
persist through most of the weekend. Much colder air in the wake of
the next cold front will bring elevated winds and likely headlines
later Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ632-634-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW