Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191147
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes across the region this morning. Cold high
pressure builds in this afternoon through Wednesday. Much
colder air spills across the region tonight through the middle
of the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EST Sunday...

Low pressure is centered east of Lake Ontario early this
morning with a trailing cold front extending to the SW, east of
the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Strong Canadian high
pressure will build southeast from the southern Canadian
prairies into the upper Midwest today.

While the surface cold front remains west of the region early
this morning, all of the precipitation has been shunted to the
southeast with just a few light showers remaining across NE NC.
These showers will translate offshore through sunrise with only
very slight chance PoPs remaining near/just north of the
Albemarle Sound through mid morning. The cold front will move
eastward this morning with decreasing clouds and westerly winds
behind the boundary. Not much of temperature drop with the front
but dew points will fall sharply through the afternoon and
winds will become gusty as deeper mixing gets underway.
Westerly/downsloping flow and ample sunshine will allow temps to
warm into the low to mid 40s across the Piedmont and the lower
50s across the SE. A secondary front will cross the area tonight
with winds becoming NW, bringing much colder air to the region.
Overnight lows range from the low 20s N/W to the upper 20s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...

Strong cold advection continues on Monday with brisk NW winds
combining to result in a raw day across the region despite mostly
sunny skies. Bay-streamer clouds are possible downstream (south
and southeast) of the Ches bay on Monday as cold dry air
interacts with the relative warmth of the waters. Temperatures
will only warm into the mid to upper 30s with wind chill values
staying in the upper 20s for the majority of the area. Winds
decrease over land areas on Monday night but remain elevated
over the water. Overnight lows range from the upper teens in the
Piedmont to mid and upper 20s SE.

Cold and still somewhat breezy for Tuesday with deep upper troughing
over the eastern US. Highs in the mid and upper 30s for most with
wind chills below 30 degrees. Models suggest the formation of a cut-
off low near the GA/SC coast Tuesday night with low temps bottoming
out in the teens and low 20s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Saturday...

The extended period will feature mainly high pressure over the
region. There will be a ridge aloft over much of the East Coast. At
the surface, a Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic through the end of the week, with no chance of precip until
Friday. Temperatures will being to moderate as high pressure remains
over the region. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in upper 30s
to low 40s, mid 40s to near 50 on Thursday, and mid to upper 50s by
Friday. Wednesday morning temperatures will be some of the coldest
we have seen so far this winter for parts of the are. Lows will be
in the teens west of I-95, and low 20s along and east of I-95 and
Delmarva. A northeast wind will likely keep areas along the
southeast VA and northeast NC coast in the upper 20s-low 30s Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday morning low
temperatures will be in the upper 20s-low 30s area wide. Next chance
of rain will move in late Friday/Saturday with warming temperatures.
The next storm system looks to be all rain, with no signs of winter
precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Sunday...

Leftover showers are now confined to the far SE portion of the
region with only light returns showing up on radar. A few
showers are moving eastward north of SBY but these should move
offshore over the next hour or two and aren`t expected to impact
the terminal. CIGs have improved to VFR at all terminals except
ECG where MVFR will continue through mid/late morning. Winds
will swing to the west behind the cold front and become gusty
through the afternoon. A secondary front comes through tonight
with NW winds generally 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots near
the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Tue-Wed as cold high
pressure builds back across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...

Low pressure is tracking into nrn New England early this
morning, with a cold front trailing to the SW into the central
Appalachians. The wind is SW 15-25kt ahead of the front, with seas
generally 4-6ft, and up to 7ft out near 20nm N of Chincoteague. The
initial frontal boundary will cross the coast this morning, and the
wind will shift to WNW and diminish to 12-20kt. The primary CAA then
arrives late this aftn into tonight and the wind will become NW 22-
27kt with some gusts to ~30 kt for the Bay/ocean (even a few gusts
to ~35kt possible off the MD coast with the initial CAA), with the
wind primarily 15-20kt elsewhere. Seas subside slightly today, and
then return to 4-6ft tonight, with waves in the Bay building to 3-
4ft tonight. Seas Monday range from 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S. The wind is
expected to become NNW near to around 20kt for the ocean/Bay/Sound
and diminish to 10-15kt for the rivers. SCAs have been extended
through 7 pm Monday for the ocean/Bay/Sound, and 10 am Monday for
the lower James. The York/Rappahannock remain 4 pm today through 7
am Monday and the upper James has been added for the same time
period.

High pressure remains NW of the region Monday night, and another
push of low-level CAA should maintain a N wind of 15-20kt, and SCAs
will likely need to be extended for the Bay and ocean (for seas).
High pressure builds into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, with
20/00z models showing low pressure development off the GA/SC coast.
The wind will become NNE with speeds 10-15kt N to 15-20kt S, and
could reach 20-25kt off the Currituck Outer Banks. This will likely
maintain at least 5-6ft seas S, and could reach 6-7ft
Tuesday/Tuesday night off the nrn Outer Banks. Elsewhere, seas
subside to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds
over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and slowly slides
offshore Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ


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