Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides farther out to sea through this morning as a
cold front approaches from the west. The front crosses the region
tonight into Monday. Cool high pressure builds in from the west
early this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Early this morning, surface high pressure is located off the NC
coast and an area of low pressure is over the Great Lakes region. A
few scattered showers have developed early this morning and have
moved across the region. Any QPF with these showers has been fairly
light and any remaining showers will dissipate over the next couple
of hours. Temperatures are generally in the 50s to lower 60s across
the region.

Upper trough slowly approaches from the west today, with the
attendant surface cold front also approaching the local area later
this afternoon into tonight. Some weak overrunning showers will be
possible during this period as the front drops across the region. A
broken line of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms
cross the northern portions of the area during the mid to late
afternoon hours, shifting to the coast (including Hampton Roads)
during the evening hours, with any scattered showers likely tapering
off by or just after midnight. Marginal Risk continues from SPC for
today and a Slight Risk has also been introduced along our northern
CWA border. Weak instability (~500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) will be in
place in the presence of some decent 0-3km shear (35-45 kt). Still
while the threat remains on the lower side, given the dry antecedent
conditions and weak lift as the vort max crosses, some isolated
severe gusts will be possible this afternoon into this evening, with
the best threat across our north. Slightly warmer due to the decent
WAA ahead of the front, expect highs ranging from the upper 70s NW
to the mid 80s across the SE. Clearing late tonight into Monday
morning. Early morning lows range from the 50s W to the lower 60s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Front slides offshore through Monday, as 1020+MB high pressure
builds from the plains into the Mid-south region and toward the
local area. Drying out on Monday, as downslope flow (W-SW) and a
decent amount of sunshine bring quick clearing and should make for
another pleasant and mild early fall day. Breezy once again with W-
SW winds around 10 to 15 mph gusting to 20-25 kt Monday. Highs in
the mid to upper 70s inland, low to mid 80s SE. Low temperatures
Monday night will range from the mid/upper 40s to lower 50s inland
to the upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. Another
dry/pleasant day with plentiful sunshine is in store for Tuesday.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared to
Monday with highs ranging from the lower 70s W to around 80 E.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

The long term/medium range forecast period is still expected to
begin with high pressure across the Upper Midwest, eventually
building east across the Great Lakes through late week. Meanwhile
aloft, a series of shortwave troughs will carve out an anomalously
deep upper trough over the Ohio valley into the interior northeast.
Remaining dry and seasonable through midweek. Highs in the 70s
Wednesday, with lows in the 40s to mid/upper 50s Wednesday and
Thursday. Cooler highs in the 60s on Thursday as high pressure
slides into New England and begins to wedge south into the region.

All attention turns to Tropical Storm Ian and what/if any impacts
this system potentially brings to the region by the later portion of
the long range forecast (Thursday night-Saturday). The trend with
the evening model runs has been for the storm to potentially make
landfall further west with the remnant low tracking west of the
local area. For now, there is at least the potential for some
heavier rainfall and breezy onshore flow as the remnants come closer
to the local area by late Friday into next weekend. However, once
again important to note that the upper trough and an evolving cool
air wedge look to remain in place as we enter the late week period.
Long story short, significant disagreements still remains, but the
picture is slowly becoming a bit clearer. We will continue to iron
out the specific details as the forecast evolves. As always, please
continue to monitor the latest forecasts/information from the
National Hurricane Center regarding Ian.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period outside
of any afternoon/evening scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Winds have become SSW this morning as high pressure slides
further offshore and a front begins to approach from the NW.
Still seeing some mid level clouds across eastern terminals
(~8000 feet), but expect skies to briefly clear out for a few
hours later this morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase this afternoon into this evening and mid/high level
clouds increase. Any showers/storms will be scattered, but may
bring intermittent flight restrictions and localized gusty
winds. The best chances will be from roughly 18z to 00z at RIC
and SBY and after 00z at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Breezy later this
morning through this afternoon with SSW winds occasionally
gusting in excess of 20 knots at times.

Outlook: A cold front will cross the region tonight into Monday
morning with the possibility for a few lingering rain showers
near the coast through early Monday morning. Dry/VFR conditions
then persist through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast early
this morning, with low pressure and an associated cold front over
the Eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The wind is SW 15-20kt over
the Bay and ocean N of Chincoteague, and 10-15kt elsewhere. Seas are
2-3ft S to 3-4ft N, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. A SW wind is
expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt (10-15kt for the
Rappahannock, York, and upper James) this morning and continue into
tonight. Seas build to 4-6ft N and 3-4ft S today into tonight. SCAs
remain if affect for the Bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and
ocean N of Cape Charles. For the ocean S of Cape Charles, there is a
potential for occasional gust to 25kt this evening, but seas will
struggle to reach 5ft with an offshore wind. Therefore, an SCA was
not issued at this time. The gradient slackens late tonight allowing
the wind to diminish to 10-15kt, and then the wind shifts to W
behind to cold front by Monday, and then WNW by Monday night and
Tuesday. Another cold front slides through the area Tuesday night as
strong high pressure builds to the NW. SCA conditions are possible
with this front. Strong high pressure builds to the N mid to late
week. TS Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday and impact
FL by midweek. How (or if) Ian directly impacts our area remains
uncertain. Regardless, there is increasing confidence for a period
of modestly strong onshore flow and elevated seas later in the week
into early next weekend due to strong high pressure to the N and a
(remnant) tropical cyclone over the Southeast Conus. Please monitor
the NHC for the latest forecasts on Ian.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies are ranging from 0.75-1.0ft
above normal across the mid-Chesapeake Bay due to a persistent SW
wind. This is mainly affecting Bishops Head, and could once again
push waters levels near minor flood thresholds during high tide this
afternoon. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this
afternoons high tide at Bishops Head. Otherwise, the wind will shift
to W Monday, and then NW Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow
tidal anomalies to fall through midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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