Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 081154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
754 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
will diminish tonight. A much stronger cold front crosses the
region on Thursday. High pressure over the midwest on Friday
builds to the southeast states Friday night, then slides off the
coast Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Latest analysis indicates MCS activity riding ESE around the
periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico.
Overall, severe wx parameters are weakening as the activity
approaches northern portions of the CWA during the next few hrs
towards daybreak. There is enough shear and elevated instability
to keep a chance for tstms into areas from RIC on north and over
to the eastern shore through mid morning, but do not anticipate
any of this being severe. Otherwise, expect a lull in any
showers by late morning/early aftn, before the next impulse
brings another round of convection after ~18Z. SPC has the fcst
area in a marginal risk for severe wx, limited somewhat by a
downsloping flow that becomes nearly due westerly at peak
heating. With strong daytime heating and good shear however, a
few strong to severe storms (wind and large hail) are certainly
possible if they can develop. Will have PoPs 30-40% for
scattered tstms from 18-00Z, gradually shifting SE through late
aftn and becoming confined mainly to far southern VA and NE NC
after 22Z. Mostly cloudy through mid/late morning N, partly to
mostly sunny to the S. Partly cloudy all areas in the aftn
with highs ranging from the mid 70s/around 80F N to mid 80s S.
The weak boundary washes out tonight and winds turn back to the
SE or S, as strong low pressure (sfc- aloft) tracks across srn
Canada. The associated (trailing) cold front is expected to
reach near/just west of the Appalachians by 12z/Thu. Dry wx
tonight (except for 20 PoP late W of I-95). Lows mainly in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

On Thu, most models have trended a little quicker w/ the
arrival of precip Thu morning so bulk of the convection will
likely occur during the morning in the Piedmont and by late
morning through early aftn E of I-95. A Day 2 marginal risk is
forecast by SPC, mainly due to the continued strong wind
shear. Instability parameters are not overly impressive, but
there will still be some threat for strong/isolated severe
damaging winds given the shear. Becoming mostly sunny/breezy-
windy (even after any convection has ended) behind the front
with temperatures staying warm as cold air lags until Thu
evening. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s N/NW to the lower
80s SE.

Strong WNW winds will usher much drier and cooler airmass into
the region for Thu night and Fri. Winds will remain elevated
overnight, so temperatures will not get quite as cool as they
would if it were to decouple, but either way it will be much
cooler with lows into the upper 30s NW with mostly 40-45F
elsewhere (mid/upper 40s SE VA/NE NC coast). Mostly sunny and
very dry Fri, with dew pts in the 20s/possibly upper teens
along/W of I-95. Highs will range from the mid 50s eastern shore
to the upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere. If limited rain accumulates
Wed-Thu, this could potentially be a Fire WX day given a
strong/gusty WNW wind as intense sfc low pressure (<980 mb)
deepens off the northern New England coast. Highs on Fri in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Quiet start to the extended forecast period with high pressure
building into the region. High pressure moves overhead on
Saturday with highs below seasonal norms, generally in the upper
50s near the coast and on the eastern shore to the lower 60s
inland.

High pressure migrates offshore on Sunday which will allow
temps to moderate back into the mid/upper 60s and low 70s. A
trough in the southern jet will spawn low pressure in the lee of
the Rockies Saturday night, this low will strengthen and move
NE into the Midwestern states Sunday evening. Chances for rain
and potential for thunderstorms will increase across the west
late Sunday morning, spreading east into Sunday night and
Monday. Southerly flow across the local area will allow temps to
climb into the low/mid 70s on Monday before the associated cold
front crosses the region with cooler temps and high pressure in
its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail but an area of showers across
central VA and the MD eastern shore from a decaying MCS will
persist through ~15Z early this morning. Tstm activity has
diminished with this and flight restrictions are unlikely to
even affect RIC/SBY (mainly just CIGs around 5,000 ft).

Mid level clouds scatter out late this morning, and winds will
begin to increase from the WSW. Winds will become somewhat gusty
this aftn to around 20 kt. Additional scattered tstms
potentially develop around 18Z, lasting into the early evening.
They are not expected to be as widespread as yesterday and for
now have just VCSH mentioned in the TAFs (SBY has the lowest
probability and did not mention any precip there). Mainly VFR
tonight with any showers/tstms ending; some patchy fog will be
possible overnight/early Thu AM especially at sites where rain
is received today.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected Thu, but a period of
flight restrictions will be possible with scattered
showers/tstms that will develop earlier in the day than usual
(as early as 12Z W of I-95 and by 14Z towards the coast). Most
of the precip should end by 18Z but becoming very breezy Thu
aftn with strong WNW winds (gusts to 30kt+). Diminishing
winds inland Thu night, but all areas will be windy dry/VFR Fri
(gusts 30kt+/highest SBY). Less wind/dry Fri night and Sat. Rain
chances increase for Sunday with flight restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

A warm front has pushed north of the local waters this morning with
resultant winds from the SSW 5-15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft. The
next cold front approaches the area from the NW by around midday
with winds becoming W 10-15 kt. The front is expected to weaken as
it drops south across the local waters this afternoon and evening.
This will allow the winds to remain in the 10 to 15 kt range
before gradually weakening Wednesday evening as high pressure
briefly builds into the region for tonight.

On Thursday, winds will be on the increase by late morning as a
strong, fast-moving cold front approaches the waters by midday and
sweeps across the waters Thursday afternoon. SW-W winds in
advance of the front could reach 20 kt, but once the front moves
through, a quick switch to the NW is expected with winds
increasing to 20-25 kt. At this point, am expecting SCA level
winds for the Rivers, Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal
waters north of Parramore Island for Thursday afternoon and
evening. A few gusts of 30-35 kt are certainly possible Thursday
afternoon north off Parramore Island. There will then be a
brief lull in winds late Thursday evening into early Friday
morning before a stronger surge of winds comes during Friday
(starting early in the morning). A Gale Watch may be needed for
our northern 2 coastal zones (north of Parramore) on Friday (5th
period), so will let next shift make a decision on any
headlines that far out. For now, have SCAs ending at 10 pm
Thursday for the Rivers and Currituck Sound. SCAs for the Bay
and northern coastal zones go until 6 am Friday. At a minimum,
SCA conditions will continue through Friday evening before
subsiding. Have capped seas to around 5 FT north with the
offshore flow and 3-4 ft south. Waves in the Bay will reach 3-4
ft on Friday.

High pressure slowly builds back into the region Friday night and
hangs over the area through Sunday morning.  This will allow the
winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another
system impacts the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 535 AM EDT Wednesday...

Astronomical tides are currently running higher than normal
given the full moon phase. This will result in water levels
approaching minor flood thresholds at a number of tide gauges
during high tide tonight. Coastal Flood Statements may be needed
by later today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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