251
FXUS61 KAKQ 040739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains near the area this weekend. A weak cold front
crosses the area Saturday, but most of the area stays dry. A
stronger cold front moves through Monday, bringing noticeably cooler
and drier weather for the remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy today with highs in the mid-upper 70s.

- A few isolated showers may sneak into the area late this afternoon
and evening.

Elongated sfc high pressure is ridging down into the coastal Mid-
Atlantic this morning. Aloft, weak WSW flow prevails over the area,
under a weak/transient ridge. Some low-mid stratus is noted on
nighttime satellite imagery, along with some patchy fog over the
Piedmont. Otherwise, temps are generally in the lower 60s where
there are clouds and in the upper 50s in cloud-free areas across the
SE. Scattered-broken cloudiness continues through most of today,
especially inland, due to low-level southerly flow. Forecast high
temps are in the upper 70s, with a few readings near 80 F in NE NC
possible. A passing shortwave and approaching (weak) cold front may
spark a few showers over the higher terrain later this afternoon and
evening and there is a low chance a few of these showers spills
over into our wrn or NW counties. Confidence is not high enough
for anything more than slight chance PoPs at this time. Isolated
showers continue into tonight. Lows in the upper 50s or lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions
  expected this weekend.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to be clear of the area by
mid-Saturday morning. However, if anything, highs Saturday will be a
degree or two warmer (upper 70s-lower 80s) than today as there is
practically no cold advection behind the front and 850 mb temps
remain steady. Saturday night lows are in the low-mid 50s, with
upper 40s possible across the NW. Drier air in the mid and upper
levels does eventually translate to lower sfc dew points by Saturday
night and Sunday with afternoon highs Sunday again in the upper 70s
to around 80 F. The low-level flow veers to the S and then SW Sunday
night ahead of a stronger cold front and lows will be
milder...around 60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Another cold front crosses the area Monday, bringing a drier and
cooler airmass for most of next week.

There remains high confidence that the stronger cold front crosses
the area Monday, driven by a deep-layer trough moving through the
Great Lakes region. This will bring a noticeable intrusion of a
drier and cooler airmass, more akin to what is expected for fall.
Ahead of the front Monday, temps warm into the mid 70s across the N
to upper 70s-lower 80s further S. Not expecting much (if any) precip
along the front Monday, though the GFS and ECMWF show some potential
for a few showers across southern VA and NE NC in the afternoon and
evening hours. Model-derived soundings continue to show W or WNW
flow aloft and a corresponding deep layer of dry air in the mid and
upper levels. Thus, don`t expect widespread precip but there is
enough of a signal to continue slight chance PoPs over SE VA and NE
NC. Dry wx is expected through the rest of the week with troughing
over the eastern CONUS and have no PoPs for the foreseeable
future beyond Monday night. Highs Tuesday-Thursday remain rather
steady in the upper 60s-lower 70s, with overnight lows in the
40s and 50s. As we get closer, would not surprised if some upper
30s begin to sneak their way into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

Mainly VFR is expected at the TAF sites through the 06z period.
Some fog development is possible early this morning in the
Piedmont, but is expected to remain W of the RIC. There could
also be patchy fog at SBY closer to sunrise and have introduced
a 2 hr (10-12z) TEMPO for IFR VSBY. Any fog dissipates by 13z
or so. Mainly dry conditions expected today with a very low
chance of a shower spilling into the area from W. SCT-BKN cloud
cover with 5-7k ft CIGS today, along with gradually increasing
high-level clouds. Winds remain 10 kt or less through the
period, with a S wind inland and an E/SE wind closer to the
coast.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected from Fri night
through the weekend. Patchy fog could again develop late
tonight into early Sat morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure prevails today through this coming weekend
  bringing benign marine conditions.

- A cold front crosses the coast Monday brining and elevated
  north wind.

High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast early
this morning. The wind is light out of the SE. Meanwhile, 3-4ft
swell continues to propagate toward the coast from low pressure
well offshore. High pressure remains over the coast today and
well into tonight. A weak cold front slides across the coast
late tonight/early Saturday morning, which will be followed by
another area of high pressure that will build into the region
Saturday and Sunday. The wind will mainly be SE 5-10kt today
through this evening, and then will become N ~10kt Saturday in
the wake of the cold front. The wind will mainly be NE 5-10kt
Saturday night and E to SE 5-10kt Sunday. Swell will continue to
propagate toward the coast with 3-4ft seas today through
Sunday. High pressure slides off the coast Sunday night with the
wind becoming SW ~15kt N and 5-10kt S. This will potentially
boost seas to 4-6ft N (highest out near 20nm). A cold front
crosses the coast Monday followed by a decent CAA surge late
Monday night into Tuesday morning as the wind becomes N 10-15kt
with gusts to ~20kt. A period of SCA conditions are possible,
primarily for the Ches. Bay for wind, and the ocean for seas up
to 5ft (especially S). High pressure gradually builds into the
region through the middle of next week.

A moderate rip current risk is forecast for today and Saturday
with nearshore waves of 3ft to occasionally 4ft and 10s periods.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River
at Stony Creek where minor flooding is still occurring. Minor
flooding is possible along the Nottoway River at Sebrell later
this weekend.

See water.noaa.gov and FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for additional
information.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Minor tidal flooding persists for the Chesapeake Bay side of
  the MD Eastern Shore, the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay
  north of Windmill Point, the tidal Rappahannock, and the
  southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

- Anomalies continue to gradually drop with mainly nuisance
  flooding today into the weekend.

Tidal anomalies are gradually falling early this morning and are
generally 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, and should continue to fall
to ~1.0ft today. Therefore, tides should gradually lower with only
minor tidal flooding forecast for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern
Shore, the western shore of the Bay N of Windmill Point, and along
the tidal Rappahannock and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for these locations through
late this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>077-521-522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ