000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure rebuilds across the region tonight through
Tuesday. Unsettled conditions return Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the next storm system moves northeast from the
Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary then stalls over the
southeast and mid Atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...

Latest MSAS has 1040 mb high over the upr midwest. The leading
edge of the colder air now pushing se across the local area
accompanied by a BKN-OVC mid/high level cloud deck, a few hr
period of gusty NW winds btwn 15-30 mph and dew points falling
into the 20s. These conditions to push farther south tonight.
Thus, partly to mstly cloudy skies thru the early morning hrs
becomes mstly clr north to pt cldy south late. Winds diminish
to 10 mph or less with lows falling into the mid-upr 20s inland,
low- mid 30s se coast.


PVS DSCN:

Remaining dry for Tuesday, with thickening clouds later in the
day. CAA post-frontal and typical shallow mixing will bring a
much colder day, with highs mainly in the 40s due to NNE flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Monday...

Very little spread among deterministic models with respect to
impacts from what will develop into a significant storm system
ejecting NE from the Gulf of Mexico Tue night, eventually
tracking through the TN/OH Valley into Wednesday, as strong,
though progressive sfc high pressure lingers briefly over the
NE CONUS. This should result in rather cold conditions to begin
the period Tue night, with only slow warming into Wed morning.
This pattern favors wintry/freezing pcpn over the area, with
most significant impacts likely remaining confined to the
Piedmont and northern sections of the forecast area. Meanwhile,
expect SE portions will tend to experience an initial burst of
snow/mixed pcpn, before quickly changing to all rain early Wed
morning.

Exact position and strength of the sfc high will be key in how
long cold air can stay in place. GEFS/EPS has trended up
slightly with snowfall totals, but on average remain in 3-4"
range of snow in the far NW (Fluvanna/Louisa...perhaps W.
Caroline) with less than one inch over far southern/SE VA and
NE NC. Typical battle zone Wed morning will likely be across
metro Richmond where 1-2" of snow is expected before a period of
mixed sleet/rain Wed morning, finally changing to rain by mid to
late morning. Rather strong warm nose at H85-H7 suggest period
for all snow across the Hwy 58/460 corridors will be limited to
pre-dawn hours Wed am, then transitioning to sleet and potentially
some freezing rain in areas that can remain at or below 32F
through midday/early aftn.

Have hoisted a Winter Storm Warning across our far NW tier of
counties (Fluvanna/Louisa), where greatest confidence exists
that a combination of snow and a light accumulation of ice will
develop and cause issues for the Wed morning commute. From
there, have a zone of a few hundredths of ice accumulation
across western zones. Overall, a rather broad area of Winter
Weather Advisories appear to be the most likely scenario at this
time, given past few model runs, but will continue to monitor
this scenario, as slight changes could lead to little to no
wintry precipitation for most of the area, or higher amounts if
the CMC is correct in depicting the sfc high lingering for
longer, with a stronger/colder solution than currently
anticipated then following. Highs Wed in the mid 30s NW, to the
lower- mid 50s NE NC.

Models have trended a bit milder/drier behind the departing
system for Thursday. Broad W-SW flow at the sfc should bring a
milder day, with temperatures quickly rising into the 50s and
60s across the area. have maintained chance pops for some Sct
showers, but anticipate areal coverage of showers will be
greater with the front becoming hung up to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

High pressure settles into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Thu night
as a cold front stalls over AL/GA/SC. A trough of low pressure will
develop along the stalled front on Fri as high pressure slowly moves
toward the Northeast US. However, the bulk of the RA is expected to
remain S of the CWA from 00z Fri-00z Sat. Kept slight chc-chc PoPs
for central/srn zones as a few brief periods of light rain are
possible during this timeframe. However, an area of steady light-
moderate rain will quickly overspread the entire region (from SW to
NE) from 06z-18z Sat as a deep upper trough over the wrn CONUS
deamplifies/starts to move E toward the Plains/Midwest. At the same
time, a warm front lifts N toward the region, allowing a CAD/wedge
pattern to set up over the CWA late Fri-Sat. Expect Saturday to be a
cool, rainy day across much of the area. The warm front lifts N of
the CWA Sat night as a stronger area of sfc low pressure deepens as
it tracks from the Plains to the Midwest. Steady rain is expected to
give way to scattered showers Sat night-Sun as the region goes into
the warm sector. Rain chances finally decrease by Sun night as the
area of sfc low pressure tracks from the Midwest to SE Canada and
the associated cold front crosses the region. Drier (but still mild)
Mon/Mon night as sfc high pressure briefly settles to our N.

Lows Thu night will range from the mid 30s N to the low-mid 40s S.
Highs Fri will be in the mid 40s to around 50. Lows fall into the
mid 30s-low 40s Fri night. Highs Sat will range from the mid 40s NW
to mid 50s in coastal NE NC. Warmer on Sun as forecast highs are in
the low 60s-low 70s (coolest N/NW, warmest in NE NC). Cooler (but
still mild) on Mon with highs in the low 60s in most areas (except
for mid-upper 50s NW/on the Ern Shore).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions thru the forecast period as high pressure dominates.
BKN-OVC CI will cont to stream ne. North winds aob 10 kts bcmg ne.

Outlook...
Pattern remains active through the week. Deteriorating conditions are
likely later Tue night/Wed as another system affects the region. A lot
of uncertainty remains, but snow or mixed precipitation is more likely
at KRIC/KSBY than at KORF/KPHF/KECG where most of the event looks like
predominate rain after an initial period of RASN late Tue night. Periodic
IFR conditions are expected late Tue night and through much of Wed.
Chances for rain and more flight restrictions continue Thu/Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EST Monday...

Cancelled SCAs for the upper rivers. Elsewhere, all headlines
remain as is. However, there have only been a few gusts to 20-25
kt on the Lower James this evening. Depending on trends, the SCA
for the Lower James may need to be cancelled before 09z.

Previous Discussion:

A cold front is currently crossing the waters with high pressure
building in behind the front. Winds have generally have or in the
process of turning to the NW behind the front and will continue to
increase through this evening. Modest CAA is expected behind the
front which will allow for winds to increase to 20 to 25 knots over
the ocean (with gusts to 30 knots) over the ocean and 15 to 20 knots
elsewhere. The Bay will likely have a period, especially between 03
and 06Z, where winds reach 20 to 25 knots. The wind will slowly
decrease later tonight into Tuesday morning. Seas will build 4 to 5
feet, locally up to 6 feet out 20 nm, and 2 to 4 feet in the Bay. No
changes to headlines on this update, SCAs are in effect for all
waters this evening and slowly ramp down through early Tuesday
morning. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday, but another low
pressure approaches from the SW by Tuesday night before passing
across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Still watching the
potential for another round of SCA conditions Wednesday, especially
for the coastal waters and lower Bay/James, due to onshore flow.
Conditions remain unsettled through the end of the week as yet
another low pressure system affects the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warning continues for the Meherrin at Lawrenceville. River
level expected to reach flood stage later tonight, before dropping
below flood stage midday Wed.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ radar has returned to normal ops.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     afternoon for VAZ048-509-510.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...JDM/MAM
MARINE...AJB/ERI
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ