000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for more rain is expected later today through Sunday
morning, as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through
the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Sunday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Early this morning, a warm front/near stationary boundary was
laying across SE portions of the area. Latest radar showed
isolated to sctd rain pushing through extrm SE VA and NE NC.
Temps were ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s NW, to the
lower to mid 60s SE. Patchy fog or areas of fog (possibly dense
in a few spots) was also over portions of the region.

Isolated to sctd rain will push ESE and off the coast in the
next couple of hours. The sky will remain cloudy across the
region today through tonight, due to continued moist low levels.
A srn stream area of low pressure will track NE from the Gulf
coast states into the Mid Atlc from later this aftn into Sun
morning, bringing a better potential for a more substantial
rain (0.25-0.5" possible) across the region from later today
through tonight. Likely PoPs (60-70%) are forecast at this
time. Despite a cloudy sky today, highs temps will climb into
the 60s to near 70. Lows tonight will range through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Low pressure will push NNE of the area during Sun followed by a
cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night. Milder temps
are expected again on Sun, as highs will range from the mid 60s
to lower 70s, with some clearing expected from NW to SE later in
the aftn. Partly cloudy Sun night with lows ranging through the
40s. A shortwave trough will approach from the W Mon, then
swings across the area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited,
but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in
clouds are expected, with just an isolated shower possible. Highs
will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Becoming clear or mostly clear Mon night with lows
ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Dry weather is expected for Tue into Tue evening, as high pressure
builds across the region. Another shortwave trough will swing
across the region Tue night into early Wed aftn, and could produce
a few showers. Then, high pressure will build into and over the
region for late Wed night into Thu night, then slides off the
Mid Atlc/SE Coast during Fri. Cooler than normal temps are
expected for Wed and Thu, then closer to normal readings for Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Saturday...

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected at all the TAF
sites through midday today, as a warm front lingers over ESE
portions of the area. As a result, low level moisture increases
with CIGs dropping to IFR and chances for fog and any lingering
drizzle. CIGs will briefly lift to MVFR or VFR this aftn, before
dropping again to MVFR or IFR for late this aftn into tonight,
as low pressure approaches from the SW, bringing the chance for
more rain. These conditions will likely last into early Sun
aftn, as the low moves across the area then NNE of the region.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected later Sun through
Tue, with an upper level disturbance bringing some clouds and
maybe an isolated shower Mon aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EST Saturday...

Winds are SSW 10-15 kt this morning, with occasional gusts to around
20 kt in the lower bay and lower James River. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore,
closer to ~4 ft offshore in 5-7 second SSE swell. Waves 1-2 ft.
Winds remain out of the SSW today, as a weak warm front lingers over
the lower bay and central and southern coastal zones and a weak sfc
wave lifts NNE. High-res CAMs continues to indicate that marine
dense fog could become a more widespread issue over the waters
around and especially just after sunrise. Trends do favor a bit more
fog formation in the next few hours, but not quite ready for a
Marine Dense Fog Advisory just yet. We`ll keep an eye on it over the
next few hours and issue additional statements/headlines as needed.

Predominate winds remain SSW tonight, as boundary becomes a bit more
diffuse with time into Sun morning. Boundary lifts north early
Sunday morning, which could turn winds briefly E-SE north of New
Point Comfort in the bay and north of Wachapreague on the Atlantic
waters side, though speeds remain sub-SCA throughout this period.
Winds back to the SSW again later Sun morning through Sunday
evening. A cold front crosses the area Sunday evening with W-NW
winds increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the coastal waters) by
Monday afternoon and night behind the front. Once again, expect most
areas should stay sub-SCA through this period, with in-house wind
probs showing <20% probability of winds meeting or exceeding SCA
thresholds through Monday evening. Widespread SCA conditions are not
forecast until next Wednesday-Thursday behind a second, stronger
cold frontal passage. At that time, NW winds look to increase to 15-
25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/SW