937
FXUS61 KAKQ 131044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warmer today before another round of showers and storms
returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm with
additional showers and storms Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

-Clouds increase late this afternoon and thicken this evening with
 precip chances ramping up after midnight.

Quiet conditions are in place early this morning with weak high
pressure over the area. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across
the region outside of some low stratus in the northern Chesapeake
and Eastern Shore. Some patchy fog remains possible for the Eastern
Shore and inland portions of the Tidewater but recent guidance has
started to back off.

Expect mostly sunny skies today with clouds increasing across the S
and SW by late afternoon ahead of an approaching upper trough. High
temperatures mostly in the upper 70s with low/mid 70s near the
coast. Once again, areas along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern
Shore will be cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Rain
chances increase rapidly across the SW half of the area after
midnight as high pressure translates farther offshore. Lows will be
mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with increasing clouds and low
level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

-Next system moves in Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms.
 Widespread severe weather is not expected.

-Showers and thunderstorms linger on Wednesday before moving
 offshore overnight.

PoPs increase from west to east Tuesday morning, spreading to the
coast by mid to late afternoon. Weak kinematics and instability
argue for little in the way of thunder for most of Tuesday. However,
will maintain a thunder chance through the afternoon on Tuesday over
SW sections and along the SE coast into later Tuesday evening. Highs
may not get out of the 60s across portions of the Piedmont while
areas to the east see temps in the low to mid 70s. QPF through Tue
night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally
higher totals possible. Best chances for periods of locally heavy
rainfall will be across south central and southeast VA into
northeast NC Tue night, where secondary low pressure looks to
develop Tuesday aftn, lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday
evening.

Rain briefly tapers off early Wednesday morning, especially across
the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, we never really
dry out lower levels through this period. This argues for continued
overcast/substantial cloud cover and light rain throughout
Wednesday, as the closed low to the west opens up and the surface
reflection weakens as it crosses the central/southern Appalachians.
Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the
day for most. However, chances for storms do increase a bit over NE
NC and perhaps into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening
upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep-
layer shear (25-35 kt) along with some decent instability.

As high pressure builds to the north, the weakening surface low
crosses the area Wed night. Given this timing, Wednesday night would
then feature diminishing rain chances and drier air filtering into
the region. Kept highs in the 70s for much of the area on Wednesday,
with some lower 80s across the SE coast. Lows Wed night in the 50s
to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

-Key Messages:

-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers
 and storms later Friday into the weekend.

High pressure builds in very briefly on Thursday with low pressure
lingering offshore. Warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and storms. Another
system approaches on Friday with another chance for scattered
showers and storms. 00z guidance has trended weaker with this system
and significant timing differences remain among the global models.
Have chance PoPs with thunder across the area on Saturday given the
slower timing noted on the latest GFS and Canadian runs.

High temps generally in the 70s to low 80s Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows continue around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for 12z TAF period. Satellite and surface
observations show an area of MVFR/IFR stratus over the
Chesapeake Bay and adjacent land areas. These clouds may impact
SBY over the next few hours but low confidence regarding ceiling
heights and duration are best handled with a TEMPO. Light and
variable winds early this morning become 10 kt SSE near the
coast and generally S 5-10 kt inland. Mostly SKC through the day
but clouds increase late from SW to NE. Showers will also return
late in the period but should remain west of the main terminals
through 12z Tuesday.

Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers,
periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

-SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this evening
through early Tuesday morning for a brief period of elevated S to SE
winds.

-Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Monday
Tuesday into Wednesday morning

High pressure is centered near the waters early this morning with
light E winds and ~3ft. The high gradually shifts offshore today,
and winds then increase out of the S-SE (to ~15kt by late aftn) as
the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the high.
Confidence in seeing a brief period of low-end SCA conditions on the
bay has increased this evening-early Tue AM, and local wind probs
now show a 70-90% chc of sustained 18kt winds between 6 PM today-2
AM Tue. Went ahead and issued SCAs for the bay that is in effect
from 6 PM through 1-4 AM.

S winds briefly diminish to 10-15kt Tuesday AM. However, a low
pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing
the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The
pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue
aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and
remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs
continue to show an 80-100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night.
Wind gusts are expected to be right around the 25kt threshold on the
ocean (and local wind probs for 25kt gusts are only 30-60% for a few
hrs Tue night), but seas should build to 5ft by Tue night.
Therefore, SCAs appear likely for the bay and ocean (and perhaps the
Lower James/Currituck Sound) with this system. Sub-SCA conditions
are expected behind the system Wed night-Thursday (w/ N-NE winds
near 15kt and seas subsiding to ~4ft). Waves on the bay will be 1-
3ft through most of the period (although 4ft waves are possible Tue
night).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI