Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 190717
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push off the coast tonight. High pressure
builds into the area Wednesday through Friday. A cold front
approaches from the north Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday...

* NWS Surveys have determined that there have been 6 confirmed
  tornadoes from yesterday. See PNSAKQ for details.

Latest analysis indicates the sfc cold front is now pushing off
the Se VA/NE NC coast, with a breezy N/NW wind in its wake along
the coast. Showers have mostly ended except near the coast and
the eastern shore. Skies have cleared out for about the NW 1/2
of the CWA and this trend will continue overnight w/ skies
clearing into Se VA/NE NC prior to sunset. More comfortable
overnight with lows into the lower-mid 60s NW to around 70 F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

A warm / drier airmass overspreads the area Wed thru Fri as high
pressure builds in from the NW. Expect mostly sunny / warm days,
mstly clr / mild nights. Highs Wed in the mid-upr 80s, upr 70s-
lwr 80s Thurs and 80-85 Fri. Lows in the 60s to nr 70 se.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Models show a frontal boundary stalling across the Mid Atlantic
region with ripples of low pressure moving east along it through the
period. The two will be the focus for daily pcpn chcs. Will carry
chc pops each day, trying not to time any wave this far out in
time. The boundary will try to sag farther south Tuesday as high
pressure moves across the nern states. Pops a bit lower Tuesday.

Highs Sat in the low-mid 80s, mid 70s-mid 80s Sun / Mon, upr
70s-mid 80s Tues. Lows in the 60s to near 70 se.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered showers have pushed well offshore as of 130 AM as the
cold front has passed through the region. Still some SCT-BKN clouds
around 5-8k feet at the southeastern terminals, with mainly clear
skies elsewhere. Expect skies to clear out over the entire area
during the next few hours. Winds have turned to the NW across the
region behind the front. There is a chance of some MVFR BR at SBY
late tonight through sunrise, but the other terminals will likely
remain free of any FG/BR tonight. Mostly sunny skies and dry weather
expected on Wednesday, with just FEW-SCT afternoon CU. Winds remain
around 7-12 kt during the day on Wed and slowly turn to the N/NE by
evening.

Outlook: High pressure settles in through the end of the week
with dry weather and mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Latest marine observations/buoy reports reveal NNW flow across
the waters this morning. Surface analysis shows cool front now
well offshore of the DelMarVa and the coastal Carolinas.
Offshore flow in the wake of the frontal passage have settled
down below SCA, after a period of SCA winds earlier this
evening in the Bay and lower James. Seas are in the process of
similarly diminishing, and will average 2-3ft nearshore by
sunrise, ~4ft farther offshore.

Do expect winds to increase slightly by just after sunrise into
the late morning, due to tightening pressure gradient w/high
pressure nudging in from the NW. High-res models verifying a bit
high this morning, so have kept winds in the Bay just below SCA
thresholds, holding at 15 kt. NW flow begins to subside into
the afternoon, as the high slides closer and gradient begins to
slacken slightly. We will have to watch the coastal zones once
again for SCA conditions tonight, with building seas as flow
turns ENE flow overnight into Thursday. However, w/ sub-sca
winds and with NWPS still running a bit higher than Wavewatch,
will hold off for now. Any headline for seas over the coastal
zones would be short-lived, w/high pressure building over the
region for Thu/Fri, then offshore Fri / Fri night. Expect
quiet/benign wx during this period with generally lighter winds
and seas ~3ft.

Next cool front crosses the waters Saturday, with winds becoming
WNW post-frontal later Sat into Sunday. There is potential for
a brief period of elevated winds in pre-frontal SSW flow early
Sat in the Bay/Lower James.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday...

River Flood Warnings continue for the Meherrin River at
Lawrenceville, the Appomattox river at Mattoax, and the James
River at City Locks and Westham. Will be canceling the warning
at Cartersville where the level has dropped below flood stage
and continues to fall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...MAM/RHR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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