Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251958
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will weaken and dissipate on Monday. Another
front will move into the area later Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest analysis reveals a weakening cool front over the coastal
Carolinas this aftn. to the north, 1030+mb sfc high pressure
over new England continues to ridge south into the region with
resultant CAD wedge locking the piedmont region in low clouds
and drizzle this aftn. Aloft, a couple of weak southern stream
shortwaves are lifting across the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast this
aftn, focusing a broad swath of light to moderate overrunning
moisture over the SE half of the area. Majority of rain today
has been focused across the Tidewater area and NE NC mainly
along a coastal trough just offshore.

WV satellite showing mid-level drying transitioning to the coast
late this aftn, which will put an end to accumulating rain
across the area from w to e. However, given the ongoing cool air
spilling into the area, plentiful llvl moisture and CAD wedge
locked in place, expect a cloudy, cool, and raw night with
drizzle and fog tonight/overnight. Early morning lows in the mid
40s well inland, upper 40s to low 50s for most, with mid to
upper 50s far SE over eastern Tidewater and coastal NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Drier conditions on Monday, as the high pressure over the area
weakens and dissipates. The flow will become southerly, albeit
light, by late Monday afternoon. This will allow the cool air
wedge to break down gradually with a bit of a rebound in temps
expected. Cloud cover hangs on for much of the day and temps
accordingly remain on the low end of the guidance envelope for
Monday in anticipation of wedge hanging in the morning before
starting to break down late. High temps in the mid 60s inland
and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Clearing and a bit
milder Monday night with early morning lows in the 50s to near
60.

Sfc high lingers along/just offshore Tuesday, as a weakening
front slowly drops across the northern mid-Atlantic toward the
local area. Still appears the area will remain dry, with temps
turning a bit milder, as FroPa and any CAA holds off until
later Tuesday night/Wed. Did introduce slight chc PoPs across
the far north in the afternoon in anticipation of the next front
arriving. Any QPF would be on the order of a few hundredths at
most, with highs from the upper 60s north to mid 70s. Slight
chc PoPs Tues night with the FroPa. Lows from ~50 NW to upper
50s to around 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Models and their respective ensemble means are in a bit better
agreement with handling not only the now well-resolved upper low
over the four corners region, but the handling of moisture from
TC Zeta.

While some typical temporal and spatial differences remain at
this time range, models are in general agreement in absorbing
the energy from Zeta into the broad upper low. The 12z/25 GFS
has become a bit more progressive vs the remaining probabilistic
guidance. Accordingly, it is a bit quicker to bring rain back in
Wednesday into Wed night. For now, will push a bit closer to the
NBM numbers in bringing rain in Wed night, with likely PoP now
in place for periods of rain Thu/Thu night as the sfc low pushes
across the region. the question at that point is how quickly the
parent low clears out on Friday, with clearing conditions for
Friday night and Saturday, as sfc high builds east from the Ohio
Valley.

For temps, expect a slight cool down behind the front Wednesday
and Thursday, with highs generally ranging from the mid 60s
north to the low to mid 70s south. Early morning lows through
the period generally range through the 50s to around far 60 SE.
Cold...albeit modifying...high pressure builds over the region
on Saturday, with the coldest night of the next week looking to
come next weekend, just in time for Halloween and the following
transition to EST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Poor flying conditions across the terminals today, with
widespread IFR conditions to persist through this evening.
Ongoing rain has been holding up CIGs to some degree along the
SE coast. Expect that as widespread rain moves out behind
departing disturbance, CIGs will deteriorate further late today
and tonight. Additional lcl VLIFR to LIFR conditions are likely
overnight around/after 00z/8pm tonight in areas of drizzle and
patchy fog.

Outlook...Wedge pattern will slowly lose its grip over the area
into Monday aftn and evening. However, deteriorated flight
conditions CIGs/VSBY will remain in place through midday Monday.
Gradual improvement by Monday afternoon, though with plenty of
llvl moisture, MVFR CIGS/VSBY could well return Monday night
into Tuesday. VFR conditions return on Tuesday, but may be
short-lived with rain chances ramping back up area wide later
Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Late this aftn, a trough of low pressure is offshore of the
GA/Carolina coast while high pressure is building swd toward north-
central VA. Winds are still NE 15-20kt with gusts of 20-25kt across
the Bay, lower James, and ocean north of the VA/NC border, with 10-
15kt NE winds on the upper James, York, and Rappahannock rivers. A
few gusts to 20kt have been observed on the Currituck Sound today
and will likely persist through the evening, but not expecting these
gusts to be frequent enough for a SCA. Seas are ~6ft north/6-7ft S,
with 2-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds N of the region
through tonight. Meanwhile, the trough of low pressure tracks NNE
off the NC/VA coast tonight with the wind gradually becoming N
(perhaps NNW in the bay) and decreasing to 10-15kt (locally NE off
the MD coast). There is still some disagreement in the model wind
forecasts tonight, with the NAM/NAMNest/WRF-NMM showing an increase
in N-NNW winds tonight (to 15-18kt) over the bay on the back side of
the low. The other models are not showing as pronounced of an
increase in winds on the bay tonight. For now, SCAs have been
extended until 02z/10 PM for the bay/Lower James. The SCA remains in
effect until 05z/1 AM for the mouth of the bay (for lingering 4 ft
waves).

Low pressure pushes farther offshore Monday as weak high pressure
builds into the region with the wind becoming NNW at around 10kt by
late in the day. Seas are expected to subside to 5-6ft N/4-5ft S by
late tonight. SCAs for the ocean continue through tonight and the
SCA N of Parramore Island has been extended until 17z/1 PM Monday
for lingering 4-5ft seas. Weak high pressure moves offshore Monday
night and Tuesday. Another cold front potentially settles into the
region during the middle of next week with strong low pressure
tracking along the boundary later in the week. The strong low is
progged to move offshore on Fri with a significant CAA surge in its
wake. At least solid SCAs are expected with the CAA surge Fri into
Fri night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI


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