Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 031305
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
905 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Definitely not much to change to that which was inherited. Front
responsible for overnight showers and storms across the central
and southern Great Lakes now off to our south. Post-frontal drying
bringing increasing sunshine to our area, with just some lingering
higher level clouds down near Saginaw Bay and some stratus near
the big waters. Mostly to partly sunny skies expected the rest of
the day, helping temperatures recover into the 70s and 80s
(warmest southeast). This heating does muster up a few hundred
joules/kg of mixed layer cape, and when coupled with lake breeze
induced low level enhanced convergence axes across eastern upper
and northeast lower Michigan...may be just enough to muster up a
stray shower or two this afternoon. With that said, trends in
recent hi-res guidance are backing away from this idea...supported
by more aggressive mixing out of near-surface moisture and bit of
a warm nose centered at about 10kft. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Impactful weather: Chances for showers and thunderstorms across
portions of NE lower Michigan today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Shallow mid level ridging is getting pushed east of us attm, as a
shortwave trough is crossing western Ontario and into the western
Great Lakes. This was shoving weak low pressure on a cold front
south of M-72 attm. Relatively deeper moisture and MUCAPES up to
800j/kg were now sitting across far NE lower Michigan, south of
Harrisville, while there was basically no instability north and west
of there, ahead of the shortwave. While we did have some showers and
thunderstorm activity just south of that portion of NE lower,
supported by some right entrance region upper divergence, the main
action dove into the previously even greater instability well off to
our south in srn lower WI/MI. This is typical. While most of the
action was off to our south and west, we were getting some
convective light rain and cloud debris across much of the M-55
corridor, with some embedded thunder. Any severe threat has
dwindled substantially.

The front just continues to head south through this morning, and the
shortwave and it`s rather weak forcing and associated precipitation
will exit by 12Z. Subsidence and drying in the wake of this wave
will bring out the sun for the morning, allowing diurnal heating to
begin. There will be little to no synoptic forcing around for the
day, outside of a wave dropping through SE Ontario that is expected
to fire off some showers and possible storms NE of SSM. We will
however, likely have weak enough low level winds for mid-late
afternoon lake breeze convergence across far NE lower south of
Harrisville, as well in interior eastern upper, mainly Mackinac
county. This at least provides for a focus for potential showers
this afternoon, induced via good diurnal heating. Modifying latest
fcst soundings in these areas, depict maybe a few hundred j/kg of
instability for some showers to pop off, probably not any thunder.
Whatever does/possibly develops, will push off to the SE in the NW
flow aloft, and fade quickly over colder Great Lake water and with
nightfall.

The remainder of the night ought to be mostly clear with just some
passing cirrus at times. Could have some patchy marine fog that
redevelops or is still floating around tonight.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s in eastern upper to the
upper 70s to lower 80s in nrn lower, cooler coastal areas. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s in eastern upper to mainly
the lower half of the 50s in nrn lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...Rain chances increase late Thursday into Friday, with more
possible thunder late Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Synopsis/Forecast: Multiple waves will dampen the central CONUS
ridging through midweek and the jet sags south over Michigan. This
fairly zonal jet remains in place along the US canadian border
through early Friday before a pattern changer rears its head through
the day Friday. A pair of lows pushes onto the west coast...in the
form of a deep upper low pushing into the PacNW which phases with a
cutoff low swinging northeast out of Southern California. As this
occurs omega blocking returns as ridging pumps up over the central
CONUS for the weekend. Our main weather-maker for the end of the
week is a shortwave sliding down through southern Ontario. This
slides a cold front through Michigan Friday, allowing for renewed
precipitation chances.

Details: Dry and quiet conditions continue through Thursday morning
ahead of the next approaching system. Ahead of this we`ll have
southwesterly winds which will pump moisture back into the region.
Shower chances start to kick off in the afternoon/evening especially
near and north of the Bridge as dynamic lift starts to overspread
the area ahead of the incoming wave. Moisture and precipitation
chances continue to ramp up overnight into Friday, as PWATs climb
back to near 1.3". We could again see some thunder chances as MLCAPE
values surpass 500 Joules, bulk shear increases to near or above 40
kts, along with the passage of the cold front. We may be capped
Thursday and early Friday, but by Friday afternoon the cap looks to
weaken as midlevel heights and temperatures start to decrease.

Highs will range from the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s both days, with
overnight lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Much of the weekend will be dry until late Sunday when the shortwave
overtopping the ridge may generate some very slight precip chances
(and at the very least some mid or upper level clouds). This will be
at odds with sustained surface high pressure and fairly dry low
levels through the weekend. Temperatures remain slightly above
normal for early June with highs running in the 70s and lows in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 538 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Clearing skies can be expected over the next few hours, behind a
departed cold front, although there could be some marine fog/cloud
floating around coastal areas. There could also be a little bit of
higher based cumulus later today, that could lead to isolated
showers late this afternoon, primarily for eastern upper and a
portion of NE lower. This could theoretically impact PLN/APN late
today into early evening. Mostly clear with just some cirrus
tonight. VFR for the TAF period, but will have to keep in mind
marine fog/stratus that may be floating around coastal areas. Light
W/NW winds will lead to lake breezes today.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

A cold front will drop south of Lakes Michigan and Huron shortly
after daybreak, taking any light rain along for the ride. Skies will
be fairly sunny for the day, outside of areas of marine fog/stratus
(which should erode out for the afternoon). Winds/waves to remain
under advisory levels in a relatively weak pressure gradient. Maybe
some marine stratus/fog again tonight, and possibly a shot at some
showers Thursday-Friday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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