Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131414
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1014 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

Upper level ridging sliding across the area today as surface high
pressure drifts E/SE. Possibly a few diurnal cu over southeast
areas but overall, lots of sunshine. Very dry air aloft and with
deep mixing today, afternoon dewpoints/RH will bottom in the
teens. Relatively light winds. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Cooler near the coasts with lake breeze development.

I will be taking a closer look at the need for another
frost/freeze headline tonight. More marginal than the past few
nights but likely still some interior areas near freezing.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

...Quiet weather and warming temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential: Low afternoon humidity values.
Potential for frost/freeze conditions once again tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals
sharp mid level ridge axis continuing to fold into the western
Great Lakes, stretching from Iowa northeastward through the U.P.
and into SE Ontario. Large expanse of sfc high pressure
encompasses the western Great Lakes down into the central and
southern Plains along with a large pocket fairly dry air across
the region (0.21 inch PWAT value on the 00Z APX sounding). Flat
out clear skies dominate across the region with just a little bit
of cloud cover sneaking into far western Lake Superior overtop the
ridge.

Mid level ridge axis will slowly sag southeastward through the
state through tonight while associated large expanse of sfc high
pressure very slowly begins to drift off to the S/SE. Abundant
sunshine/deep layer dry air and mixing will pretty much bring a
repeat performance from yesterday. We did have a bit of afternoon
high based Cu across the SE part of the CWA which I suppose could
happen again. But we are a little drier and warmer aloft compared
to Wednesday, so I don`t think there will be as much.

Otherwise, with warmer temps and deep mixing into a very dry
airmass, afternoon dewpoints/RH values will crash again, likely to
even lower values than Wednesday. I have min RH values dropping
through the teens across a good portion of interior northern
Lower Michigan. Winds will be on the lighter side however...lighter
than Wednesday...and temps will largely be 70F or less, below
critical fire weather values.

Similar story for tonight; mainly clear skies, although model RH
guidance suggests we could see a little bit of cloud cover begin
to sneak into the northern and western parts of the CWA. But clear
skies/light winds/low sfc dewpoints will lead to yet another
chilly night with temps in our cold locations possibly dipping
below freezing again. Possible we may need yet another round of
frost/freeze headlines. But will let day crew again assess that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

At the start of the period...the nice little ridge bubble that`s
been giving us the nice weather the last couple days will be moving
on out to the southeast along the flow. This will leave us under the
influence of a sharp little trough on the very backside of this
bubble on Friday...which may bring us a little cloudiness and
perhaps precipitation...but it should stay dry in most places.
Though there may be a little wiggly action in the flow
Saturday...will overall look for heights to rise Saturday night
going into the last half of the weekend. Looking a little wider in
scope...as shortwave troughing moves through the more or less zonal
flow aloft...will look for a niblet of that troughing to get cut off
and linger along the west coast for much of the short term.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation chances through the
period...perhaps fire danger concerns?

Given the shortwave moving into the region...will have to watch out
for some cloud cover at the very least...which may give way to some
precipitation...especially where any additional surface convergence
could form...such as a lake breeze in eastern Upper or NE Lower.
With overall high pressure in the region...it should be quite well-
mixed Friday...perhaps above 800mb or higher...such that
precipitation would have to fall through a lot of dry air in the low
levels. Conditions should be similar Saturday...another well-mixed
day with some diurnal cu that could squeeze out some
precipitation...if it makes it to the ground, that is.

Given the well-mixed air, it could end up drier and warmer than my
forecast the next couple days...which is something to monitor with
regard to fire danger concerns. Not sure that we`ll reach red flag
criteria, given that winds attm look fairly light...but we may want
to message the concerns in graphics, anyway, given the DNR`s Great
Lakes Fire and Fuels page has most of the CWA (most of Michigan, for
that matter) in high to very high fire danger...and no appreciable
precipitation to diminish that rating in the next couple days. Not
to mention it should be an overall nice weekend...which may get
people thinking about cleaning up the yard again...

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Will have to keep an eye on some little wiggles in the flow going
into Sunday...which could keep some cloud and precipitation chances
around...though heights should be on the rise going into the start
of next week. That cutoff low will eventually get kicked out of the
southwestern US...though model guidance is not yet particularly
clear on when this occurs. Either way...it does appear to stay warm
for a majority of the first half of the week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 551 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

Large area of high pressure will remain in control of northern
Michigan`s weather for the next few days, providing solid VFR
conditions at the terminal sites. Light winds overall, although
with some increase during the day with lake breeze wind directions
likely to develop at all terminal sites.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

Large expanse of high pressure will remain across the region for
the next few days, leading to light winds and waves on the Great
Lakes with no marine headlines anticipated.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA


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