845
FXUS63 KAPX 191046
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
646 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High pressure builds today, returning cool and dry conditions
through Tuesday. Favorable fire weather condtions expected today and
Tuesday along with overnight frost potential.

-Unsettled weather returns later this week. Periods of light
scattered showers are expected to linger through the remainder of
the forecast period into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Current ongoing drizzle across the CWA should completely dissipate
before 12z this morning. Evening sounding depicted a very dry
atmosphere above 700 mb due to midlevel ridging currently building
from the west. Heights continue to rise for the next (roughly) 36
hours pushing surface high pressure and overall quiet weather across
the northwoods. Besides the ongoing subsidence keeping conditions
dry, midlevel flow form the northwest will keep seasonably cool
weather across the region. Highs will be in the mid/upper 50s for
eastern upper today along with the majority of northern lower. The
lower tier of counties (Manistee, Wexford, Roscommon, Gladwin) west
of I-75 may push into the low to mid 60s, but otherwise temperatures
well below normal for mid May continue for the next several days.
Other than cool temps... dry atmospheric air mixes to the surface
today, dropping dew points into the mid/low 20s for the normally dry
locations of interior northern lower. Minimum RH`s will likely drop
to critical thresholds this afternoon for the interior counties
between the M-68 and 55 corridor.

Subsidence aloft clears cloud cover for the most part by Monday
evening, which allows for subsequent radiational cooling processes
to drop overnight low`s to near freezing for interior northern
parts. Some thin cloud cover that is expected to linger will most
likely prevent widespread frost chances, but patchy concerns still
remain a threat Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Weather conditions this Tuesday will look very similar to the short
term forecast period. Sharp riding will have its axis centered over
Michigan this Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue quiet and
cool conditions along with another day of very low RH`s. At the same
time... Midlevel troughing will be centered over the northern plains
and continue to advect eastward this week. Closed low pressure will
track through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and circulate around the
northeastern CONUS for the remainder of the week. Rain is expected to
overspread across mid and southern Michigan this Wednesday, but the
CWA will mostly remain dry until the first period of showers begin
later into Thursday. Subtropical jet maxima will cut off moisture
from being advected into this system... resulting in only periods of
enough rain to wet surfaces. Some little remnants of convective
elements may generate a tenth or two of QPF for localized areas, but
this pattern will continue seasonable cool temperatures for the
remainder of the week with highs in the 50s/60s along with cloud
cover the majority of the time. Long range ensembles turn heights
more zonal which in theory should allow temperatures to slightly
warm and clear out any cloud cover at the end of the week which
hopefully saves part of the holiday weekend, but no clear sign of
when the longwave trough holding over the majority of north america
will clear out and return summer-like weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Pesky low clouds hang on across portions of the region early
this morning, but should diminish shortly through the morning
hours today and/or become VFR. Most locations will become VFR
by 15Z, although few areas may linger. Northeast wind AOB
10-15KTs through the day today with dry, VFR conditions through
the night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD