


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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845 FXUS63 KAPX 191046 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 646 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -High pressure builds today, returning cool and dry conditions through Tuesday. Favorable fire weather condtions expected today and Tuesday along with overnight frost potential. -Unsettled weather returns later this week. Periods of light scattered showers are expected to linger through the remainder of the forecast period into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Current ongoing drizzle across the CWA should completely dissipate before 12z this morning. Evening sounding depicted a very dry atmosphere above 700 mb due to midlevel ridging currently building from the west. Heights continue to rise for the next (roughly) 36 hours pushing surface high pressure and overall quiet weather across the northwoods. Besides the ongoing subsidence keeping conditions dry, midlevel flow form the northwest will keep seasonably cool weather across the region. Highs will be in the mid/upper 50s for eastern upper today along with the majority of northern lower. The lower tier of counties (Manistee, Wexford, Roscommon, Gladwin) west of I-75 may push into the low to mid 60s, but otherwise temperatures well below normal for mid May continue for the next several days. Other than cool temps... dry atmospheric air mixes to the surface today, dropping dew points into the mid/low 20s for the normally dry locations of interior northern lower. Minimum RH`s will likely drop to critical thresholds this afternoon for the interior counties between the M-68 and 55 corridor. Subsidence aloft clears cloud cover for the most part by Monday evening, which allows for subsequent radiational cooling processes to drop overnight low`s to near freezing for interior northern parts. Some thin cloud cover that is expected to linger will most likely prevent widespread frost chances, but patchy concerns still remain a threat Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weather conditions this Tuesday will look very similar to the short term forecast period. Sharp riding will have its axis centered over Michigan this Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue quiet and cool conditions along with another day of very low RH`s. At the same time... Midlevel troughing will be centered over the northern plains and continue to advect eastward this week. Closed low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and circulate around the northeastern CONUS for the remainder of the week. Rain is expected to overspread across mid and southern Michigan this Wednesday, but the CWA will mostly remain dry until the first period of showers begin later into Thursday. Subtropical jet maxima will cut off moisture from being advected into this system... resulting in only periods of enough rain to wet surfaces. Some little remnants of convective elements may generate a tenth or two of QPF for localized areas, but this pattern will continue seasonable cool temperatures for the remainder of the week with highs in the 50s/60s along with cloud cover the majority of the time. Long range ensembles turn heights more zonal which in theory should allow temperatures to slightly warm and clear out any cloud cover at the end of the week which hopefully saves part of the holiday weekend, but no clear sign of when the longwave trough holding over the majority of north america will clear out and return summer-like weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 554 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Pesky low clouds hang on across portions of the region early this morning, but should diminish shortly through the morning hours today and/or become VFR. Most locations will become VFR by 15Z, although few areas may linger. Northeast wind AOB 10-15KTs through the day today with dry, VFR conditions through the night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JLD