216
FXUS63 KAPX 151642
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1242 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and rumbles of thunder possible this afternoon
  and evening across the eastern U.P.

- Numerous showers and storms on Tuesday.

- Strong system with potentially heavy rainfall Wednesday night
  into Thursday.

- Cool temperatures persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper low will remain parked just south of Hudson Bay
through most of this week with the jet draped across the northern
CONUS. Shortwave troughing over the Ohio Valley will slide further
east as more pronounced troughing digs into the Great Lakes Tuesday.
Forcing provided aloft will support relatively weak pressure falls
along an advancing cold front set to work across the area later
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Ridging quickly slides overhead Wednesday
ahead of a very impressive system for mid/late June barrels into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday. As discussed yesterday,
heights from 700mb and below as well as MSLP are forecast to be
deeper/lower than any values from the 1979-2009 Climate Forecast
System Reanalysis (CFSR) climatology for a 3-week period centered on
Thursday`s date. Around 95 percent of all North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS) members are forecasting these extreme values
as well. This combination speaks to both how rare a cyclone near
990mb is for the Great Lakes heading into late June -- likely a once-
in-several-decade system -- and that there is high confidence in a
system of this magnitude materializing several days out.

Forecast Details:

A few showers and perhaps rumbles of thunder are possible later this
afternoon and evening across the eastern U.P. and near the Straits.
Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated across the area through
tonight. Rain chances quickly ramp up across the area on Tuesday,
especially late Tuesday morning and afternoon as numerous
showers/storms are anticipated. Pockets of several hundred J/kg
MLCAPE will be possible between cells/more dense cloud cover during
the afternoon, potentially support a few strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and hail. Overall, though, severe weather is
not expected at this time. Localized areas that are targeted by
multiple rounds of showers/storms Tuesday may see rainfall amounts
around 0.5" or greater.

Rain chances end Tuesday night into Wednesday before focus quickly
shifts to the aforementioned strong system set to track across the
region late Wednesday into Thursday. While most potential higher-end
impacts will likely focus south of the CWA, steady rainfall over a
12+ hour period could bring amounts in excess of 1" to portions of
northern lower Michigan by Thursday morning. Gusty east winds will
also be possible overnight Wednesday before switching to
west/northwest winds behind the system on Thursday. Temperatures
will also likely be noticeably cooler on Thursday as highs may
struggle to warm into the low to mid 60s with lingering showers and
cloud cover. Temperatures look to remain a few degrees below average
for the bulk of the next 7 days as we head into late June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions persist through the issuance period. VCSH around
KCIU mainly later this evening around 20z lasting until around
00z, noting a possible scattered shower or two wanting to pass
over the terminal as showers skirt across eastern Upper. Chances
for showers/storms redevelop with greater chances of precip.
moving west to east through the day beginning around 12z across
KTVC, KMBL, and KPLN, with greater chances for showers/storms
across KAPN later in the afternoon/evening around 18Z. West
winds turn southwest through the day with gusts 15-20 knots
possible, becoming lighter and south- southwest tonight. Winds
look to increase once again ~12z, especially KTVC and KMBL with
redeveloping gusts 10-20 knots.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...NSC