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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291706
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
106 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Current forecast remains on track with quiet weather in place. For
forecast details, please see the near term discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

...More of the same...

High Impact Weather Potential...very low RH values for fire wx
interests.

High pressure still sits over the area, extending into the region
from the ne. The core of that high will drop from Quebec to off
the New England coast into tonight. Though ridging will still extend
back into our area, that ridging weakens with time. So an actual
pressure gradient develops...not much of one, and it`s mostly
tonight, but baby steps. Until then, same old same old, though
with some slow trends.

Temperatures will continue to warm, both daytime highs and
nighttime lows. Dew points will continue to creep higher; surface
dew points are presently near 40f to the mid 40s, higher than they
have been on recent nights. We can still expect to mix out shallow
evapotranspiration moisture. RH values over the interior of
northern lower MI should again plunge into the low-mid teens this
afternoon, ahead of lake breeze boundaries. Synoptic winds will be
near calm today; we will decouple tonight, and not realize the
light southerly breezes that will develop off the surface.

Minimal cloud cover. High temps today mid 80s interior, 70s to
near 80f on the coasts. Lows tonight upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  Potential fire weather concerns at
times...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Rex block remains in place over the eastern US...with slightly
negatively tilted ridge axis still largely centered over the Upper
Great Lakes...as a trough zips down through eastern Canada.
Upstream...handful of vort maxima scattered through broader
troughing in the western US. Some upper-level moisture being
advected into the Upper Midwest on easterly flow...but subsidence
maintains a hold on northern Michigan. 850mb temps in the mid-teens
resulting in highs yesterday into the 80s over our region. 1026mb
surface high pressure over Hudson Bay...maintaining influence over
our region as well...despite a NW-SE oriented BCZ stretching from ME
up into Manitoba. Generally troughiness over the southeastern
US...with a system along/just off the coast of the Carolinas...and
additional troughiness over the central Plains...and parts of the
western US...where the bulk of the convective activity has been
located thus far.

Appears Rex block may try to break down early this week...namely,
the upper low over the southeastern US finally tries to eject. Some
upstream energy tries to make a run up the western side of the ridge
through the central Plains into midweek...with bulk of the impacts
from this likely to remain well to our northwest attm. Given the
quite dry atmosphere overhead attm...not sure how much of an impact
any warm advection will have as far as precipitation is
concerned...though increasingly warm weather is expected to continue
right on into the extended.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  Lack of precip chances...hot/dry
conditions...

After a dry day today...looks as though return flow would like to
try to bring some deeper moisture into the area...with signals for
pwats to increase for Tuesday...as the niblet to our northwest
shifts the ridge axis a little further east. This being
said...antecedent anomalously dry conditions may make it difficult
for much more than increasing mid/high clouds to affect the region,
particularly noting that we have little in the way of synoptic
forcing and probably not a ton of instability to work with. This
being said...do expect lake breeze development Tuesday afternoon,
which could kick off some diurnal cu amid some potential for a few
hundred joules of SBCAPE (per guidance derived soundings)...though
again, with the atmosphere so dry, have concerns much of anything
will actually be able to develop and reach the ground. Will keep the
forecast dry for now...and will let later shifts assess the
potential for anything to actually reach the ground Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Wednesday could be somewhat similar...though
there are signals for an increase in low-level theta-e with that
disturbance passing by to our northwest...such that we may be a
little bit more primed for a few showers and thunderstorms during
the day, especially during the afternoon, when there would be a
better source of forcing via the lake breeze.

As far as the heat goes...850mb temps look to remain in the mid-
teens through midweek...suggesting additional days in the mid 80s,
potentially higher wherever downsloping is favored (given
southeasterly background flow...more likely along the north and west
perimeter of the northern Michigan higher terrain, at least before
the lake breeze comes in). Attm...we are looking at some potential
for record highs later this week...particularly at the sites with
shorter periods of record (GLR, PLN)...though if we are able to get
some mid-high clouds into the region, will have to see if these are
able to keep afternoon highs from reaching their full potential.
Will not be surprised to see some of the typically warmer sites
break 90 at some point this week. Some potential remains for
dewpoints in the mid 40s Tuesday and perhaps again Wednesday,
suggesting fire weather concerns will continue right on into the
middle of the week. Fortunately, winds still look generally on the
lighter side, thanks to the ridge being nearly overhead
still...though they could be a touch breezier going into Tuesday or
Wednesday with that system to our northwest, especially toward NE
Lower/APN where there could be some channeling off Thunder Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal, aside from continued hot/dry
concerns...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

As mentioned above...pattern should become a little more nebulous
toward the latter half of the week...as former southeast US low
struggles to eject northeastward through the flow...and additional
energy tries to slip in from the southwestern US. Meanwhile...more
troughing entering the western US should allow the ridge to
strengthen again...reforming a bit more westward than
currently...potentially becoming a little more centered over the
northern Plains/Canadian Prairies with time going into the end of
the week, with bits of energy potentially trying to meander through
it. Suspect the upper ridge and resultant surface high will maintain
influence over the region...keeping things largely dry and very warm
through the end of the week into next weekend...such that fire
weather concerns will be the main issue. This being said...if any of
the minor disturbances are able to coincide with the lake breeze,
wouldn`t be impossible for a rogue shower/thundershower to develop
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions are once again expected across all northern Michigan
TAF sites through the issuance period. High pressure overhead will
keep mostly clear/sunny skies in place, aside from a few passing
high clouds. Calm winds are anticipated shortly after sunset with
lake breeze formation pushing inland Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Light winds today/tonight, with high pressure over the region. A
bit of a southerly breeze gets going for Tuesday into Wednesday,
those these will remain light and do not expect advisory-level
winds/waves.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...JZ