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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240342
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1142 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Little in the way of sensible weather tonight with expansive high
pressure overhead. Scattered high clouds moving in from the
southwest will continue to encroach this evening into tonight. While
another chilly night is in store with frost potential, especially
across north-central and northeast lower, those clouds will likely
prevent us from realizing full radiational cooling potential
tonight. None the less, latest raw guidance suggests some locally
colder temperatures to near freezing or just a touch below --
have made some minor tweaks to overnight low temperatures,
primarily in the typically cooler/interior icebox locales. No
changes planned to the inherited frost advisory.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...Unseasonably cold with widespread frost tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Widespread frost again tonight for
much of our area...especially across Northeast Lower Michigan.

Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over most of the
Great Lakes region this afternoon. Scattered to broken diurnal CU
has developed across our CWA...with a bit more coverage than
previously expected. Temps continue to warm thru the 50s toward
afternoon highs in the lower 60s.

Unseasonably cold airmass will remain firmly in place across the
Great Lakes thru tonight. Strong subsidence will lend to clear skies
once residual diurnal CU has dissipated with sunset. High center
directly overhead combined with low level decoupling after sunset
will allow winds to become light/calm. The combination of all of the
above will likely drop temps to or just above freezing for much of
our CWA...which will lead to frost development again overnight into
early Tuesday morning. Locations with the most widespread frost will
be across NE Lower Michigan where some increase in mid/high level
clouds will likely be delayed until after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...Frost Possible Again Tuesday Night then Increasing Rain Chances
Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Frost possible Tuesday night; heavy
rain possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Models are now in good agreement that surface high pressure holds on
across northern Michigan Tuesday on into much of Tuesday night. This
will lead to clear to partly cloudy skies for the most part
(increasing mid/high clouds overnight Tuesday), light winds and a
large diurnal temperature range given the dry airmass in place.
After highs of well into the 60s Tuesday, temperatures should
quickly radiate into the mid 30s to low 40s Tuesday night. Expect
patchy or even areas of frost to form once again (mainly across
northeast lower). Not sure if this frost will be widespread enough
for a third straight night of headlines but there is plenty of time
to assess this possibility. Attention will then turn to deepening
troughing originating from a short wave evident on water vapor
imagery near the central Wyoming/Colorado border. An area of low
pressure associated with this wave is expected to track into the
western Great Lakes Wednesday night. A dry easterly flow initially
will have to be overcome before rain overspreads the region during
the day Wednesday. Widespread rain is then expected Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. This system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rainfall (precipitable water values increase to
between 1.5 and 1.75 inches) as well as embedded non-severe
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to generally range
between a half and an inch but locally higher amounts are possible.
Showers are expected to continue into Thursday as well but a general
decrease in coverage is expected. Temperatures will largely remain
slightly below normal for later May.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...Warming Temperatures but with Shower Chances...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low for now.

Showers may linger Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, warming
temperatures are expected in the long term, especially this weekend.
Weak disturbances moving through a nearly zonal flow aloft along
with daytime heating induced instability will bring generally small
chances for periodic showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
Monday. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal Friday.
Temperatures then moderate to a few degrees above normal Saturday
then several degrees above for late May Sunday and Monday when some
spots are expected to hit the coveted 80 degree mark. The warmer
temperatures should be welcomed by people planning outside
activities during the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains in place
through the day Tuesday. Light/variable winds tonight with onshore
lake breezes expected to develop again Tuesday afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday night as
high pressure holds overhead thru Tuesday and then begins to shift
east Tuesday night. Dry wx and below normal temps can be expected
thru Tuesday night. Our next rain chances will develop on Wednesday
with generally wet and unsettled weather continuing thru Thursday
and into Friday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016>018-021>024-
     027>030-032>036-041-042-099.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MLR