


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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973 FXUS63 KAPX 151910 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 310 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Hot and humid air settles over the region tonight before chances of showers and storms move across the northwoods. Watching for isolated severe potential Wednesday evening. -High pressure returns quiet weather this weekend. Potentially active weather develops midweek next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tonight... Forecast remains quiet tonight as the current boundary north of the CWA stays over the northern part of Lake Superior. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s keep overnight lows warm and uncomfortable to those without air conditioning. Otherwise, mid to high clouds will linger across the region ahead of the active weather. Wednesday... Hot and humid weather breifly returns across the northwoods as the warm sector builds across northern lower. Daytime highs will climb to the upper 80s across northern lower Wednesday afternoon before a cold front to the northwest slowly progresses southward in the evening hours. Showers ahead of the front could begin across northern lower as early as late morning/early afternoon as instability quickly builds and pops off some cells. Model soundings show the potential of a strong/severe storms with moderate mid level lapse rates and strong inverted-v profiles. SPC keeps the CWA under a marginal risk for severe storms mainly because of a lack of shear, but one or two storms potentiality producing severe level winds gusts can be expected across northern lower. Otherwise; convective driven showers will likely produce isolated heavy showers due to PWAT values near 1.5" and cloud layer movement producing training storms. QPF values will range from a trace of precip, to the chance of one or two isolated areas receiving over 2 inches of rainfall by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Thursday... A few lingering showers remain possible early Thursday morning behind the frontal passage. Subsidence begins to build Thursday, drying conditions and returning quiet and cool weather. Northerly flow will keep daytime highs around 70s for most locations. Friday... Midlevel heights turn more zonal across the central U.S beginning this Friday through the weekend. This pattern supports quiet and dry weather on Friday with temperatures slowly starting to build into the mid 70s and continue to climb this weekend. Surface high pressure keeps chances of precipitation low, and sunny skies very likely for most areas. Saturday... Midlevel zonal flow across the midwest continues this weekend. Chances of precipitation do return to the Upper Great Lakes region as a low level shortwave tracks eastward. Precip will likely be weak and unorganized as is transits across the northwoods. Biggest struggle will be showers overcoming dry low levels. Little to no precipitation is expected at this time. Sunday/Next Week`s Outlook.. Zonal flow continues through the remainder of the forecast period, keeping precipitation low. This pattern will slowly transition to more of a ridging set-up building across the majority of the CONUS with strong flow over central Canada. Chances of precipitation remain pretty low with surface high pressure slowly building a heat dome by midweek next week. Highs likely climb to the mid/high 80s by the end of the long term. This pattern potentially returns an active pattern beyond the long term as the baroclinic zone to the north creates the classic summer "ring of fire" across the midwest. Too early to message impacts, but we will monitor this feature as we approach late July.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 High to mid level clouds will continue to spill into the region from the north and spread southward through the evening into tonight. Coinciding with increasing cloud cover are increasing chances for scattered showers/ storms beginning primarily at KCIU, spreading to northern Lower terminals Wednesday. Southwest winds will continue to be a touch gusty this afternoon, especially at KCIU and KPLN. Light and non-impactul winds otherwise. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...NSC