520
FXUS63 KBIS 250311
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
911 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front passes through the area tonight with low chances
  for snow in its wake.

- Below average temperatures Saturday behind the cold front,
  with warmer temperatures on Sunday.

- Windy conditions continue through early next week.

- Mainly dry weather expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

The cold front continues to make its way through the area,
currently stretching from Wells County down through Slope
County. Light snow, gustier winds, and reduced visibilities have
been reported along and behind it, thus prompting another SPS
for the entire forecast area through midnight. Some more
organized cellular snow showers have popped up in northwest
Montana, though the ingredients needed for this sort of
development decreases in strength across northwestern North
Dakota. The rest of the forecast seems to be going well at this
time.

UPDATE
Issued at 612 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Taking a look at upstream observations, the main adjustment to
the forecast with this update was increasing the PoPs associated
with the frontal passage. We also issued an SPS for the northern
two thirds of the forecast area, as there have been many reports
up in Saskatchewan and Manitoba of reduced visibilities due to
the winds blowing snow around, both from falling snow and
already fallen snow on the ground. We`ll reassess in 3 hours to
see if we`ll need another SPS later on tonight. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track, with the cold front just beginning to
make its way into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Current surface analysis places trough/frontal boundary
dropping through Manitoba into the Red River Valley,
southwestward through the central plains. Upper level analysis
places low over northeast Manitoba. Northwest flow remains over
our area with a notable wave upstream over Saskatchewan, while a
weaker wave moving through our area is resulting in a few
flakes of snow over parts of south central North Dakota.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned
wave and its affiliated cold boundary drop through the area.
This will continue to keep winds gusting, and will also bring
low snow chances through the area. Although this snow will
really be quite hit and miss with little accumulation, it may
combine with the wind at times while falling to create brief
periods of reduced visibility.

Snow chances will diminish by Saturday morning, with some low
chances lingering over the far south. With that said, winds will
remain gusty and temperatures will be notably cooler as the
compact cold airmass passes through. On Sunday, warmer airmass
pushes over the area with temperatures recovering back to near
to slight above average, while dry conditions prevail.

For the upcoming work week, Pacific ridge remains in places
before gradually working its way east. This actually makes the
temperatures forecast a bit tricky given warmer airmass to the
southwest and cooler to the northeast, and questions to how much
this may shift. This continues to be reflected in NBM
temperatures spreads that increase notably as the week goes on.
Mainly quiet weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Generally VFR conditions are present across the area, with the
exception of the northwest, where MVFR ceilings associated with
a cold front have begun to make their way into the area. As this
cold front sweeps through the state, gusty northwesterly winds,
isolated/scattered snow showers, and patchy blowing snow will be
possible, potentially reducing ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR/IFR at times through the night tonight. Once the front has
fully exited the area by early Saturday morning, MVFR ceilings
are forecast to linger, before lifting and clearing is expected
in the early afternoon hours. Northwesterly sustained winds from
25 to 30 mph will be possible, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.
Wind speeds will also begin to decrease Saturday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Besson