Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202033
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
233 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Forecast concerns this period will be the snow event now moving
through the region. RAP13 h700/h500 troughs remain east-west over
North Dakota through this evening suggesting the snow will be slow
to end, although it will diminish slowly. So have kept flurries in
through most of the night tonight west and diminished the snow
central and east through the night.

Temperatures continue to be a challenge with deep snow cover over
many areas. Clouds will decrease west and so have dropped
temperatures there about 5 degrees over guidance, expecting a
low of 5 to 10 below. Elsewhere, persistent clouds will help
maintain temperatures around zero to 5 above.

Lingering chance for light snow should continue north Thursday
with little further accumulation. Highs Thursday in the teens to
around 10 above.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

The next chance for snow will be on Friday and Friday night with a
shortwave trough that will brush southern and southeast North
Dakota. Up to 3 inches of snow is possible southeast.

Then we still see a very cold extended period beginning Sunday
with an arctic cold front that will usher in a series or cold air
masses through much of the week. During this period lows will fall
to 15 to 25 below with highs struggling to get above zero. Wind
chills will likely fall near 40 below as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Updated the TAFs to indicate more persistent IFR conditions in
snow KMOT-KBIS-KJMS through this afternoon into the early evening
as a slow moving low pressure system exits the region tonight.
Otherwise conditions slowly improving to MVFR KMOT-KBIS-KJMS by
this evening, and remaining MVFR KISN-KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ048-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA


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