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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040552
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Previous forecast right on target so we made no changes this
update.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

No major changes needed with this update. High pressure still in
place over the eastern Dakotas with west/southwest winds in the
west. Temperatures are responding as such with current
temperatures in the 20s west to the teens and single digits in the
east. Chances for precipitation still look consistent for Saturday
afternoon across our north as the next surface trough tracks from
the west. Forcing is favored further north into Canada, so we
kept greater PoPs to the far northern counties.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

This evening, surface analysis placed a 1027mb surface high over
southeast North Dakota through eastern South Dakota. Southerly
winds of around 10 kts were observed in western North Dakota where
the surface pressure trend was negative at 2mb per 3 hours. These
pressure falls are in response to a shortwave trough moving over
the Northern Rockies. Surface winds turn southerly across most of
the forecast area through the night as the shortwave approaches
with the James River valley and the Turtle Mountains regions
being the last to turn, which is where temperatures tonight and
early Saturday morning will be coldest.

With this forecast update we opted to bump up winds tomorrow with
a pressure gradient tightening as the surface low deepens. This
brought sustained forecast winds into the 15-20 kt range during
the afternoon, mostly focused in the central portion of the state.
No adjustments needed at the time to the previously discussed
precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Current surface analysis places low over western Ontario, with
broad high working through the northern/central plains. Upper
level analysis places ridge over the midwest, with low along the
Alberta/British Colombia border. Over our area, quiet weather
remains in the wake of the previous system, with mainly clear
skies and cold temperatures.

For tonight, quiet weather remains as surface high gradually
meanders off to the east. Winds will switch southerly in the wake
of the departing high, resulting in milder temperatures west.

On Saturday, a short wave rotating around aforementioned upper low
zips through northern portions of the area. For now it appears
that this should mainly result in an increase in cloud cover, but
have added some low precipitation chances along the far north for
the afternoon/evening given the strength of this little system.
As for timing, have broadbrushed in the low pops as timing remains
tricky given the speed of this compact system.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Another upper low over the Pacific moves onshore on Sunday. A
variety of short waves ejecting ahead of this low will bring
modest precipitation chances to the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. Northern low then again becomes the primary feature as
it shifts east and the northern stream becomes predominant. A
short wave ejecting ahead of it pushes through our area Monday
evening into Tuesday, bringing the next chance for precipitation.
Mainly dry conditions expected thereafter, until models indicate
the possibility of another system moving through towards the end
of the long term. Temperatures gradually warm through mid-week,
then remain near to a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

VFR at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds become
southerly/southeasterly and gusty on Saturday before a cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM