342
FXUS63 KBIS 081745
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy today with a few rain showers. Increased chance
  for rain and snow showers tonight.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions south and west of the
  Missouri River today, especially in far southwest North
  Dakota.

- Much cooler, but still near to above normal, temperatures and
  increasing chances for precipitation to start the upcoming
  work week.

- Warm and windy conditions return Thursday, along with chances
  for rain and snow.

- Cooler with low to medium chances for accumulating snow to end
  the upcoming work week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

The Wind Advisory is in effect, with wind gusts up to around 40
mph being observed so far. Approaching cold front is still north
of the International Border, with no significant increase in
POPs across northern North Dakota until this evening as the
front begins to drop south. Going forecast looks good for the
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Frontal boundary continues to sag south across the area this
morning, with low-level warm air advection and winds on the
increase as the surface pressure gradient tightens from a
deepening low in southeast Saskatchewan. There are a few
isolated radar echoes in the northwest part of the state, but
with ceilings around 9k feet not expecting much of anything to
be reaching the surface, but virga could help mix down
stronger, erratic wind gusts. Wind Advisory goes into effect at
the top of the hour. Freshened up the near term grids with this
update but no big changes in our thinking for the day.

UPDATE
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Mainly updated Aviation
Discussion for 12z TAF issuance. Otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Warm front ahead of the next clipper system will push across the
state this morning. Behind this front will be warm and dry air,
while along and ahead of this front could be some isolated rain
showers. Western and some central portions of North Dakota still
have the highest confidence in seeing advisory level wind speeds
and gusts. HREF ensemble mean and max winds for today also
support these stronger winds in western and central portions.
Thus expanded the Wind Advisory a tier of counties eastward.
Further east than this could still see strong winds and perhaps
sustained winds of 30 mph. Wind gusts remain an area of
uncertainty, thus held off of Wind Advisories in these areas for
today. High temperatures today could still be record highs for
many southern areas, although is still dependent on the passage
of a cold front and perhaps lingering of mid to high level
clouds. Current forecast still maintains highs in the 60s for
most southern areas, with 40s and 50s in the north. Dry air at
the surface will lower afternoon RH values into the 20s across
the far southwest, with 30s and 40s most other areas, and 50s or
higher in the northeast. Similar concerns remain for confidence
with critical fire weather conditions. Abundant high clouds
could move in today, timing of the cold front could change, and
there still remains uncertainties in the status of the fuels.
Thus will maintain near critical fire weather messaging for
areas south and west of the Missouri River for today. Far
southwestern North Dakota could be the bigger area of concern
today and will be worth monitoring throughout the day. Cold
front will then move through from north to south later today
through tonight. Along this front will be chances for rain and
perhaps some snow mixed in, mainly in the north as dry air in
the south could diminish precipitation chances. Strong northwest
winds may also be found as this front moves through, with
perhaps some advisory level winds lingering into the early
evening hours across the north. Cooler lows in the 20s are then
forecast for tonight.

Front is forecast to stall near the ND/SD border for Monday,
with the next clipper system moving through Monday through
Tuesday. This will bring broad chances for snow across much of
the area during this time period. Forecast snow accumulations
are currently light with NBM chances for an inch or more at 20
to 50% and chances for 4 inches or more around 10%. However
frontogenesis and a favorable jet location could help produce
locally higher snowfall totals. This is evident with NBM QPF
chances of at least 0.25" of liquid showing 20 to 40% chance
mainly along and south of Interstate 94. Thus something to
monitor going forward. Highs Monday through midweek will
generally be in the 30s to lower 40s, with lows in the teens and
20s. Weak ridging could bring a mainly dry day on Wednesday.
Clusters then indicate a stronger clipper system could move
across the state on Thursday. Depending how north of a track
this clipper takes will also depend on chances for rain and
snow. Right now the higher confidence comes in a brief warmup
with the potential for strong westerly winds. Clusters then show
a broad surface low developing lee of the Rockies in the central
plains later in the week and into the upcoming weekend. High far
north this low forms will be dependent on a surface high moving
out of Canada. About a 50/50 split in cluster solutions for
accumulating snow returning across the state during this time
period. There is also increased confidence for cooler
temperatures to remain during this potentially active time
period. Chances for 4 inches or higher of snow in a 24 hour
period are around 10 to 30% for this potential weekend system
and will be worth monitoring how this system further develops.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions for most of the TAF period, with strong west
winds this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move
from north to south tonight. This front could bring rain and
snow showers and produce MVFR conditions, with PROB30 groups
included at KXWA and KMOT. Winds will shift to be more
northwesterly behind the front, decreasing late tonight into
Monday morning and becoming more easterly towards the end of the
period. MVFR ceilings begin to move into southwest North Dakota,
including KDIK, late in the period ahead of additional
precipitation chances.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Jones