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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191821
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
121 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Overall, the forecast remains in good shape. A large area of
moderate rain continues to progress eastward into the eastern half
of the state early this afternoon. Scattered convective showers
are also now beginning to enter far northwest North Dakota, and
some isolated thunder is possible with this activity. The most
notable adjustment for this update was to lower high temperatures
today due to the extensive cloud cover. Recent satellite trends
suggest only western parts of the state will see appreciable
clearing this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 854 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This update is mainly to freshen up the near term forecast with
current conditions and trends. A lone, persistent thunderstorm
has tracked from Hettinger into Grant Counties over the last hour,
through a pocket of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Rain showers continue to move through the area. Going forecast
remains in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Current surface analysis places low over southwestern
Saskatchewan, with cold front dropping to the south. Upper level
analysis places low along the southern portion of the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border. Initial wave with this system is
resulting in some light rain showers over our area.

For today, additional showers will continue to develop and move
into the area this morning, pushing east through the day as the
cold front moves through the area. Winds will be on the increase
behind the cold front, leading to a windy afternoon over much of
the area. Weak instability in place may lead to a few rumbles of
thunder.

A few showers will linger mainly over eastern portions of the area
in the evening while the upper low moves east over northern North
Dakota and starts to stack up with the lower features overnight.
Moisture wrapping around the system will move mainly into
northwestern portions of the area late. With the cold air in this
system, some light snow will be possible, but any accumulation
will be minimal at best, and mainly on grassy surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Low opens up on Friday and gets wrapped into broad Hudson Bay low.
This will result in broad cyclonic flow, thus resulting in modest
shower chances throughout the area. Temperatures will remain
rather cool, leading to the chances for a little morning snow west
and north central, though as mentioned before, would be minimal
accumulation at best. Cold surface high settles over the area
overnight, with temperatures becoming quite chilly, dropping
around to a bit below freezing over many areas.

Quiet but quite chilly conditions linger into Saturday, with
another very cold night on tap.

Gradual warming trend then develops for the upcoming week. Zonal
flow sets up with a variety of embedded waves, bringing near daily
modest precipitation chances to various parts of the area for the
upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

A large area of rain over central North Dakota will mainly cause
MVFR restrictions this afternoon. After this rain clears, VFR
conditions are favored through the evening, though scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. A cold
front moving down from Saskatchewan will bring MVFR to IFR
ceilings and additional chances for precipitation from northwest
to southeast later tonight through Friday morning. Surface
temperatures may be cold enough across western and north central
North Dakota for snow to mix with the rain, which could cause IFR
visibility restrictions. Westerly winds around 15-20 kts this
afternoon will subside a little this evening. Behind the cold
front, winds will turn to the north-northwest and increase to
20-25 kts by Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...Hollan