Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
936 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

We increased the winds along the higher terrain across north
central North Dakota and the far south central, Wishek area, to
match current observations, where winds have been gusting to 35
mph. This corresponds fairly well with the lowering (to 800 agl)
low level jet forecast by the CAM models. Otherwise we expect
temperatures to be nearly steady across most areas as warm
advection increases overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

A dry southwest flow of air will bring a warming trend to the
region by Tuesday. We expect some increasing high level clouds but
dry weather through Wednesday. Increasing southerly winds could
create some patchy blowing snow across the southern James River
Valley Tuesday morning. Current forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)

Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be moderating
temperatures tonight and tomorrow.

Currently, upper level ridge axis building east into the Northern
Plains this afternoon, with mid level WAA spreading east across
the Dakotas with a surface warm front over eastern Montana.
Temperatures much warmer than 24 hours ago, already well into the
20s west with low 30s far southwest.

Ridge moves east across the region tonight along with the warm
front moving into western ND, increasing low level WAA into the
Dakotas. In the wake of the ridge axis, upper level clouds will
increase from west to east tonight, becoming mostly cloudy west
late this evening and statewide by 12Z Tuesday.

Warm front continues to advance eastward across my central and
eastern counties Tuesday daytime. Despite a mostly cloudy sky,
temperatures continue to warm thanks to a steady west/southwest
mixing wind with forecast highs low 40s southwest and mid/upper
20s across my east. Breezy across my southeast so will include
blowing snow there in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

Dry and mild weather expected through much of the long term

Quasi-zonal flow aloft Tuesday night, followed by a mid level
S/WV sliding across northern Montana and morphing into a closed
low as it approaches North Dakota Wednesday and moves across the
region Wed night-Thursday. Mild temperatures continue on
Wednesday ahead of the wave though will see CAA start to spread
into the area. NBM removed POPs for the day Wednesday and kept
this solution. Looking at model soundings and moisture profiles,
it will take some time for the boundary layer to saturate, which
models indicate will happen Wed night. Even then POPs will be low
and not expecting much.

Cooler for Thursday in the wake of the mid level low, then
temperatures starting to rebound Friday. A return to milder
conditions for the upcoming weekend as flow transitions back to
quasi-zonal. Another slight cool down is then expected early next


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

A High pressure ridge extending across Minnesota will move east
as a trough of low pressure remains west in Montana. This weather
pattern will maintain a dry southerly flow across the region.
Increasing southerly winds Tuesday morning will create some
patchy blowing snow across the James River Valley, which may
impact KJMS after 14z with 6sm BLSN.

Low level wind shear of 240/45 kts is expected from 8 hundred
feet agl to the surface KBIS-KJMS between 03-14z.




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