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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011438
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
838 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

For the morning update we made some minor changes to sky cover
with mid and high level clouds scooting southeast with building
upper ridge, and low stratus lifting northward across western ND,
but dissipating with increased insolation, on the back side of
the surface High that is situated over eastern North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Updated sky cover to account for areas low level stratus west and
central and increasing mid level clouds streaming in from the
northwest. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

No forecast highlights in the short term period.

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a deep upper level trough
over the Great Lakes region and an amplifying ridge across the
western CONUS. Surface high pressure developing south into the
Northern Plains early this morning. Area of low stratus ahead of
the sfc high across across southwest and south central ND,
expanding northward across western ND where winds have become
south/southeasterly. BKN-OVC mid level cloud deck moving
southeast into northwest ND.

For today, we start out with lingering clouds this morning, with
sky cover trending mostly clear during the day. Strong WAA across
the west today, coupled with a clearing sky and strong mixing,
will result in mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Went
with the higher end of NBM guidance for highs with the mixing
expected.

Much milder lows tonight as WAA continues to spread east across
the region, and we maintain a steady west/southwest wind. Lows
will range in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Zonal flow aloft will be maintained through Wednesday, with a
weak cold front moving through the region Tuesday. Still,
mild/well above seasonal temperatures expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 50s south and lower 40s north.

Upper level ridge amplifies across the Rockies and eventually
moves into the Great Plains Friday into Saturday. Opted to
maintain above NBM guidance for daytime highs both days, going
again with a mean/75 percentile NBM blend. While models have
backed off a tad on highs, this still results in forecast highs
into the 60s southwest on Friday and west and south central on
Saturday. Still think there is a chance of seeing 70 degrees
southwest on Saturday with models indicating strong southerly
mixing, along with the potential for fire weather concerns with
min RH values in the lower 20s southwest.

Uncertainty ramps up for the second half of the weekend,
specifically regarding an upper level S/WV trough moving into the
western CONUS Sat and its track, timing, and impact over our
region on Sunday. The EC ensemble mean is trending towards higher
500mb heights on Sunday, while the GEFS ensemble mean is trending
lower. Both models are mainly dry, with temperatures the biggest
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 834 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Tricky morning forecast with lingering low level MVFR and pockets
of IFR stratus across west and central ND early this morning,
along with a mid level cloud deck streaming in from the
north/northwest. The cloudy conditions this morning will make way
for decreasing clouds from west to east after 14Z. VFR conditions
after this morning, with low level wind shear also expected
tonight for most terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH