Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 242044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...The chance for
showers will continue overnight as an upper trough and cold
front dig into the Pac NW. High resolution models continue to
highlight e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mtns for the
greatest chance of precipitation (60-80%) and a slight chance
of thunderstorms through sunset. Further south, the chance for
measurable precipitation will range from 20-40% across lower
elevations, to 40-60% in the mountains. Thunderstorms will
generate gusty outflow winds to 40 mph through this evening,
mostly over Baker County and along the ID/OR border from Ontario
northwards. The frontal passage overnight will shift winds to
the W-NW and bring local gusts of 20-30 mph. The trough axis
pushes to the WY/ID border on Saturday bringing drier conditions
to SE Oregon while shower development continues across higher
terrain of SW Idaho. Northwest flow on the back side of the
trough will keep breezy conditions with widespread gusts of
20-30 mph through Saturday evening. Snow levels are around 7000
feet tonight, dropping as low as 5500 feet Saturday morning
behind the front. Any minor accumulation (up to 2 inches) will
be limited to sites above 7000 feet MSL through Saturday. Sunday
brings drier and warmer conditions, along with lighter winds,
as an upper ridge begins to build over the Intermountain NW.
Saturday is the coolest day of the weekend, warming to near
normal on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Cluster ensembles and
deterministic model data show widespread agreement in the
development of a ridge in the beginning of the long term period.
Above normal temperatures, with valley highs in the upper 80s
anticipated on Monday-Tuesday. Current model blends show a 50%
chance of highs reaching the 90s in Boise by Tuesday. By late
Tuesday, an upper level trough will begin to edge into the
Pacific northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
continue on Wednesday-Thursday, with model disparity in the
location of the upper level trough/cut off low through the end
of the long term period. Precipitation chances will be higher
over elevated terrain, with about a 20-30% chance of
precipitation over the Central ID mountains each afternoon and
10-15% chance over lower elevation valleys through Friday.
Temperatures will cool to near normal as the upper level low
moves into the region late Wednesday.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing in eastern OR this afternoon-evening
along a cold front, moving across SW Idaho this evening.
Mountains obscured in showers with brief MVFR/IFR conditions in
storms. Snow level around 7000 ft MSL. Surface winds: E-SE
5-10kt, becoming NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 35 kt along and
behind the front around 25/03Z. Gusty and erratic winds near
thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. E-SE 5-10 kt, shifting to NW 5-15 kt around
02-05Z/Sat, with brief gusts to 30 kt along a cold front.
Scattered light rain showers developing this evening.

Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR. Lingering showers on Saturday,
mainly in the mountains. MVFR/IFR possible in precip, along
with mountain obscuration. VFR and dry Sunday. Snow levels
generally 5500-7500 ft MSL. Surface winds W-NW 10-20 kt with
gusts 20-35 kt Saturday. Sunday winds W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds
strongest in the Magic Valley.




Weekend Outlook...





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