Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
495 FXUS65 KBOI 121526 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 926 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .DISCUSSION...Satellite this morning reveals an area of mid level clouds across south-central Oregon with clear skies elsewhere. An incoming shortwave trough will interact with moisture and weak instability across southern Oregon to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening before decreasing overnight. A warm and dry boundary layer will allow for isolated gusts up to 50 mph from thunderstorms across southeast Oregon. Highs today will reach the low to mid 80s across the lower elevations, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy across south-central Idaho today with lighter winds elsewhere. Skies should remain mostly clear through the evening across southwest Idaho before clouds increase overnight. No updates anticipated this morning. && .AVIATION...VFR. Clear skies across southwestern Idaho will become partly cloudy this afternoon as scattered mid-level clouds in southeastern Oregon spread northeastward into Idaho. There is also a slight chance (20 %) that isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon in southeastern Oregon and then diminish after sunset. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, strongest KMUO to KJER/KTWF this afternoon with gusts to 25 kt. Winds at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: light this morning, becoming NW around 10kt with gusts to 15 kt this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...An upper level ridge axis is over the area this morning, and it will shift east during the day, allowing SW flow ahead of an approaching trough to move into the area late this afternoon and tonight. This trough is now showing up stronger than in previous runs, and we have increased the chance of showers and thunderstorms for both this evening and Monday. The best chance (10-30%) this afternoon/evening is over southeast Oregon, while the best chance Monday is in/near the eastern mountains and Owyhee and Twin Falls counties. The trough will move out of the area Monday afternoon/evening, pushing a cold front through the region, and leaving us with dry NW flow aloft Tue and Tue night. After a very warm day today with highs 10-15 degrees above normal, temps will drop down a few degrees Monday, and then a few more Tue. Tuesday`s highs will only be about 5 degrees above normal. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Models are finally coming into better agreement concerning the evolution of flow coming into the PacNW next week. A new large ridge off the coast will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions Wed through Fri, after which a trough is expected to move in Sat or Sun. This trough will result in a low chance of precipitation mainly in the higher terrain Sat and Sun (10-30%). Northwest winds will be a little stronger than normal each day in the long term. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...ST AVIATION.....JB SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP