Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 062024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
224 PM MDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Temperatures are
ramping up quickly this afternoon, aided by gusty south-
southeast winds. The temp has already reached 87F at the Boise
Airport. There are also signs of convection developing with high-
based cumulus clouds and weak returns on radar southeast of Boise.
The convection will be limited initially due to the very dry low
levels, but conditions will become more favorable later this
afternoon and into the evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some with gusty winds to 50 mph, are expected this
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The timing of the
front is still on track to move through Baker around 7 pm MDT,
Boise around midnight, and Twin Falls around 2 am. Gusty winds to
around 40 mph will accompany the front, with locally stronger
gusts possible. Much cooler temperatures arrive on Friday, with
highs in the 50s and 60s. Showers will continue in the higher
elevations in the northern mountains, and also south of Twin
Falls, as an upper trough moves through the northern Rockies.
Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through Friday evening,
especially in the typical wind-prone areas southeast of Boise
where speeds will approach advisory levels. Drier but cool
conditions are expected on Saturday, with a slight chance of
showers east of McCall. Morning lows will be in the 30s across the
lower valleys with highs generally in the 50s and 60s once again.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Upper level low remains
northeast of the region through Monday for unsettled conditions.
This system will continue to bring breezy winds, mountain showers
and afternoon thunderstorms, and near-normal temperatures. After
Monday, the ensemble forecasts favor a return to an upper level
ridge over the region for dry and warmer temperatures through the
remainder of the extended.


.AVIATION...VFR. Clouds increasing this afternoon with showers
and isolated thunderstorms developing along the Nevada border by
21z. Showers and thunderstorms will continue north across the
region into the late evening hours. Outflow winds gusts to 40 kts
possible. Mtn obscurations at times. Surface winds: Southeast to
southwest 5 to 15 kts, with gusts to around 20 kts possible
switching to the west-northwest with the frontal passage around
03z for KBNO/KBKE, around 06z for KBOI/KEUL and around 10z for
KTWF/JER. Winds shift west to northwest across Oregon aft 07/04z.
Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Southwest 15 to 30 kts.

Weekend outlook: Mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend with periods of mountain
obscuration. Breezy northwest winds on Friday and Saturday,
especially south and east of Boise.





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