Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 070855
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The main issue in this portion of
the forecast will be the impacts swell from Tropical Cyclone
Cristobal will have on the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and
Kenedy counties. A High Risk of rip currents is anticipated at the
beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach today. A
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the early morning hours
through midday today. Finally, a High Surf Advisory has been added
for the local beaches for today. As Cristobal transitions inland,
the swell will begin to subside tonight through Monday, allowing
the aforementioned products to no longer be needed.

Aside from the impacts at the coast, dry and increasingly hot
weather is likely across the BRO CWFA with Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley sandwiched between Cristobal to the east and 500
mb high pressure to the west.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): Dangerous heat will be
expected on Tuesday following another warm and muggy night due to
the combination of a moist southerly surface flow and strengthening
ridging across the mid-levels of the atmosphere. A Heat Advisory
will likely be needed as heat indices are expected to peak between
110 and 115 degrees across much of the region. Expect a very warm
and humid night on Tuesday night.

A weakening cold front will approach the region during Wednesday,
which will help to result in the surface winds turning more out of
the east and the slight chance for area convection. These slight
changes will help to result in slightly lower tempeatures and heat
indices on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. With the dissipating
front near the area, the rain and thunderstorm chances will remain
possible into Thursday. The latest deterministic ECMWF model run
is quite bullish regarding the POP values but will trend a tad
lower closer to the GFS, general model and ensemble blends.

Area rain chances should diminish by Friday and into this upcoming
weekend as surface high pressure builds southwestward across the
state and into the region. Otherwise, expect for hot but near
climatological average temperatures under a light to modest east-
northeasterly flow as upper level ridging remains concentrated
over the central United States.

&&

.MARINE (Now Through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported west-southwest
winds around 4 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly
over 7 feet with a period of 10 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Swell
from Tropical Cyclone Cristobal in the central Gulf of Mexico will
propagate towards the Lower Texas Coast today. As a result, a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to
60 nautical miles offshore today. The swell will begin to subside
tonight and especially on Monday with Cristobal moving inland.
However, seas may be high enough for the far offshore Gulf of
Mexico waters to warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution tonight.

(Monday night through Thursday night): Moderate southerly winds
will continue through Monday night before improving into Tuesday
and Wednesday as a weak cold front approaches and washes out over
the region. The conditions through Monday night may continue to
result in small craft operators to exercise caution. Light to
moderate east to east-northeast winds and low to moderate seas
generally prevail late Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  77  98  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  99  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            97  75 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             100  77 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  76 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ256-257-351.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257-
     351.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ256-
     257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ150-155.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...Tomaselli/66
Long Term/Upper Air...Brady/62



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