172
FXUS64 KBRO 192317 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

* Hot, dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue through
  the workweek.

* Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) can be expected over Deep South
  Texas with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk possible.

* A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect for all of Deep
  South Texas, excluding the coastal and island counties till 8 PM
  CDT this evening.

* A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Deep South
  Texas, excluding the coastal and island counties for Monday from
  Noon-7PM CDT. Additional Fire Statements may be needed during the
  week.

* A Special Weather Statement (SPS) remains in effect for southern
  Hidalgo and the inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy
  counties till 7 PM this evening with peak heat indices between 108-
  113F.

* Additional SPSs and a potential heat advisory, or two, are
  possible each day through the week.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Hot, dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue over Deep
South Texas through next weekend. After plaguing the Northern
Rockies and Plains, and Upper Midwest with a massive heat wave
including numerous record-breaking temperatures, an anomalously
strong and broad heat dome is in the process of retreating and
shifting into the 4-Corners Region and Southern Plains. With a
strong 594-597 dam sub-tropical heat dome or ridge over the region
and encompassing much if not all of Texas, the heat moving forward
through this week will be slightly more intense compared to prior
days. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, 850 mb temps
between 20-26C will translate to widespread ambient temperatures
near the sfc ranging between 100-107F degrees across much of the
region (including the inland coastal counties) through the week
ahead. Not only are these values slightly above climate normals, but
some of these values on some days could break or challenge record
high temperatures (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details).

Strong compressional heating via strong subsidence from the
aforementioned heat dome will help to lower the dewpoint and
relative humidity values across the region through next week. As a
result, maximum heat indices or "feel-like" temperatures will not be
as strong as what it otherwise could be. That said, peak heat
indices through next week will generally range between 100-115F
degrees with the lower values far west or inland and the higher
values near the coast. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) remains in
effect today till 7 PM CDT for southern Hidalgo, Inland Cameron,
Willacy, and Kenedy Counties to account for the high heat indices
ranging between 108-113F degrees. Additional Special Weather
Statements (SPSs) or borderline Heat Advisories may be needed in
the days ahead, particularly for the coastal counties and mid-
valley to account for peak heat indices ranging between 108-115F
degrees. While the strong compressional heating is good in keeping
the heat in check, it does raise the risk for fires through this
week (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

These temperatures will continue to result in widespread Moderate
(Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across Deep South Texas with pockets of
Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk over the major population centers and
towns along the Rio Grande Valley through this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Breezy southeasterly winds (15-20 knots, gusting to up to 25
knots) continue over the next several hours before gradually
diminishing at KHRL and KBRO to around 10 knots by late tonight
while KMFE could remain a bit elevated overnight. Southeasterly
winds pick back up to similar strengths by late morning or
tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions can be expected over the next
couple of days with low to moderate seas. A modest pressure gradient
will at times produce moderate winds along the Lower Texas Coast
through the forecast period. Although Small Craft Advisory is not
likely to be needed, periodic Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is
possible, especially for the Laguna Madre. Marine conditions could
potentially become more adverse mid to late week in response to a
tropical system tracking westward along the northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Strong subsidence or compressional heating from the heat dome
overhead will result in reduced relative humidity values through the
workweek. Forecast models continue to show minimum relative
humidity values are expected to meet Fire Danger Statement (RFD)
criteria through this Friday. Winds will also be breezy at times
through the workweek with values also reaching Fire Danger
Statement (RFD) criteria through the week.

Strong evaporation rates combined with a lack of widespread and
meaningful rainfall has resulted in normal to dry fuels across the
region. Given the situation, we need to keep close watch on
observations and forecast trends for the potential of Fire Danger
Statements, particularly through Friday. We have decided to issue
another Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for most of Deep South Texas on
Monday from Noon-7PM CDT. This includes all of the counties of Deep
South Texas with the exception of the coastal and island counties.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

An anomalously strong 594-597 dam heat dome over the region will
result in a perpetual state of hot and dry conditions that includes
record to near record-breaking temperatures through the workweek.

Record High Temperatures for Sunday July 19:

Brownsville: 100F (2023, 2009, 1918)
Harlingen: 102F (1938)
McAllen: 106F (2009)

Record High Temperatures for Monday July 20:

Brownsville: 100F (1980)
Harlingen: 103F (1947)
McAllen: 107F (2009)

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday July 21:

Brownsville: 99F (2023, 1980, 1909)
Harlingen: 102F (2012, 1924)
McAllen: 105F (1980)

Record High Temperatures for Wednesday July 22:

Brownsville: 100F (2023)
Harlingen: 102F (1913)
McAllen: 105F (2018, 2009, 1980)

Record High Temperatures for Thursday July 23:

Brownsville: 101F (2018)
Harlingen: 104F (1943)
McAllen: 107F (2018)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  97  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               75 103  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 78 106  77 106 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76 107  75 106 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  88  79  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...65-Irish