Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 192001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
301 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night): 500mb low/trough
developing across the western United States tonight will move
eastward across the Rockies Sunday as low to mid level moisture
from the eastern Pacific and the southwest Gulf of Mexico moves
across northeast Mexico into deep south Texas Sunday into Sun
night as the upper level trough continues to move eastward. At the onshore flow will increase across the lower Texas
coast Sunday into Sun night as low pressure across the Texas
panhandle moves into the southern plains and low pressure develops
across northeast Mexico. Rain chances will develop across deep
south Texas Sunday and increase Sun night...mainly across the
southern and eastern portions of the a cold front moves
into south Texas late Sun night into early Mon morning. Will
mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sun night with more numerous
convection across the coastal waters extending back to the coastal
sections. Patchy fog will likely develop across portions of the
CWA late tonight into early Sun morning.

NOS tide gages at South Padre Island currently indicate water levels
currently near a 0.5 foot above MHHW which is about 1.5 above
predicted levels. With that said...will likely see water levels
reach between 1 to 3 feet above MHHW tonight into early Sun morning
as the combination of long period swells and astronomical high tides
provide minor coastal flooding along the lower Texas coast. Will
continue coastal flood advisory for the coastal sections of
Cameron...Willacy and Kenedy counties for now.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Unsettled weather will be the
rule this week as a progressive mid level pattern persists and short
wave troughs start to dig farther south from the Plains as summer
transitions to fall. A mid level trough axis will swing over Texas
on Monday, pushing a modified mP front through the area. The ECMWF
appears to be a skosh faster than the GFS in bringing the wind shift
trough the area, late afternoon as opposed to later afternoon or
early evening, but by late evening the front should be through with
high pressure building into the area. Overnight lows will dip into
the 60s with high temperatures on Tuesday really not that far from
normal, in the 80s. Rain chances will be best along the front, with
the possibility of fats moving thunderstorms and some stonger gusty
winds, but once the front moves through, rain chances will diminish
quickly and shift offshore. High pressure scooting quickly east will
allow coastal troughing to set up on Tuesday, with east to southeast
winds pushing moisture back over the area on Wednesday into Thursday.

Around mid week, as West Coast ridging builds, another trough will
dig south over the High Plains.  The associated surface air mass
will have a bit more continental flavor than the one from early in
the week, and thus promises to be slightly stronger and colder. The
positive tilt mid level trough will be sharper and deeper, with
stronger winds indicated by both the ECMWF and the GFS, both
bringing the front through by Friday morning. Temperatures will
sink below normal on Friday through Saturday, with clearing behind
the front on Saturday.


Tonight through Sunday night: Seas were near 4 feet with south to
southeast winds near 6 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon.
Light to moderate south to southeast winds will prevail across the
coastal waters tonight as a weak cold front moves into south
Texas and stalls. The pressure gradient will remain unchanged
across the lower Texas coast Sunday with surface low pressure
across the TX panhandle and surface high pressure across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to strong south to southeast
winds are expected to develop across the northern portions of the
coastal waters Sun night with low pressure across the Red River
valley and low pressure developing across northeast Mexico. Will
likely need to mention SCEC conditions for portions of the
offshore waters Sun night.

Monday through Thursday Night: The arrival of a cold front late
Monday will bring fresh northeast winds and building seas to the
lower Texas Coastal waters. Wave heights will reach and surpass
seven feet on the Gulf waters Monday night through Tuesday night,
and will possibly persist at low end small craft advisory criteria
through mid week across the offshore waters, even as winds retreat
slightly and shift to east or southeast.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  89  77  87 /  10  20  60  60
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  89 /  10  20  60  60
HARLINGEN            75  91  76  89 /  10  20  60  60
MCALLEN              77  93  78  92 /  10  20  50  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  94  76  92 /  10  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  84  79  83 /  10  20  60  70


TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for TXZ256-257-351.



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