Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041932
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
232 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): For the short term period,
high pressure will continue to remain parked overhead. This will
maintain the hot and dry conditions over Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley.

While afternoon temperatures are in the mid 90s to 100s across the
region today and the same is expected for Tuesday, heat indices are
expected to remain just shy Heat Advisory criteria though a few
localized spots in Zapata and Starr counties could briefly touch 111
degree "feels like" temperatures. Overnight will remain warm and
muggy with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Persistent mid-level
ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue maintain
hot, humid, and mostly rain-free weather through the long-term
period. Although there will be an ample amount of low-level
moisture in place, strong subsidence in the mid-levels will
counteract any mentionable PoPs in the forecast. With that said,
cannot completely rule out spotty and short-lived showers and
thunderstorms along the seabreeze and/or morning streamer showers
each day. Medium-range models continue to indicate some slightly
better mid/upper-level support for precipitation on Wednesday and
into Thursday as a very weak, inverted trough rounds the base of
the ridge and moves over the Coastal Bend of Texas. However, due
to the strength of subsidence that will be in place, just not
confident enough to bump up PoPs greater than 10% either day at
this time.

Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably hot and fairly
consistent through the rest of the week, and may even trend a
degree or two warmer this upcoming weekend and into early next
week as the mid-level ridging builds over the Four Corners
Region. If the current forecast verifies, wide-spread triple digit
ambient temperatures will occur for the majority of inland
locations by Sunday, especially along and west of I-69E.
Regardless, warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast to
continue through the entire long-term period, with peak heat index
values between 107 and 110 degrees each afternoon. Be sure to
stay cool and hydrated if you`re spending time outdoors.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): Generally favorable conditions
will continue across the Gulf waters through the period. Slightly
adverse conditions, mainly each afternoon, on the laguna Madre and
possibly nearshore Gulf Waters are expected due to a slightly
increased pressure gradient and mariners will likely need to
exercise cautions across these areas.

Wednesday through Sunday: Generally favorable marine
conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week
and into next weekend. Slightly breezy afternoon winds across the
bay may create choppy or Small Craft Caution conditions. Light to
moderate southeasterly winds offshore diminish through the week,
with low to moderate seas becoming around 2 to 3 feet. Best
chance of rain, albeit very isolated, may be Wednesday into
Wednesday night, however, a few streamer showers are possible each
night offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  93  79  94 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          80  96  80  96 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            78  97  77  97 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              79 101  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 103  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

Short Term...68-McGinnis
Long Term...67-Mejia


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