Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230233
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area overnight which will usher
in unseasonably mild air through Friday. A cold front will move
through Friday night, brining a round of showers followed by much
cooler weather for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm front to lift north of the region overnight. Light winds and
a saturated airmass blo 1500 ft found in the vicinty of a warm front
will support several areas of fog...some of which could be dense...
especially between Buffalo and Rochester.

Friday will be an unseasonably warm and pleasant late October day
with high temperatures in the 70s. It will be a bit breezy but
mostly sunny during the day. Showers will approach the region from
the west ahead of a cold front late in the day, but most model
guidance keeps us dry until after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much more like later October with cooler air returning for the
weekend, but mainly dry weather expected.

Showers will accompany the cold front as it moves across the region
Friday night. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible through the
first half of the night before any leftover instability wanes east
of the Genesee Valley. While showers will likely continue across the
region along and ahead of the cold front, activity will likely
diminish in intensity and coverage through Saturday morning as the
associated surface low and shortwave trough supporting ascent
quickly departs northeast through Quebec overnight. Lows will
generally fall back into the 40s by early Saturday morning.

Cold air advection under northwest flow moves into the region
Saturday. As 850Ts fall to near -2C across the Lakes, high pressure
and much drier air will rush into the region. There may be just
enough lake induced instability to produce a shower or two southeast
of Lake Ontario through midday, before strong subsidence moves into
the region. Although would expect some extra clouds through the
afternoon southeast of the lakes, especially in upslope areas. It
will be much cooler on Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 40s
to low 50s.

Strong high pressure will build into the region Saturday night and
Sunday. A relatively light north to northeast wind will keep
conditions cool with overnight lows falling into the 30s with mid to
upper 20s across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Temperatures will
rebound into the mid to upper 40s for the majority of the region
Sunday, with some low 50s along the Lake Erie shore.

Sunday night a warm front will move into the region as the next area
of low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. Expect increasing
clouds with a few showers possible through the first half of the
night, with more widespread showers developing across the area after
midnight. Will have some low temps in the lower to mid 30s east of
Lake Ontario early in the night, however expecting warm advection
aloft to boost 850Ts above 0C before the onset of any shower
activity, so will keep all precip in the liquid form. Speaking of
low temperatures, expect lows to occur early in the night, then rise
into the upper 30s east of Lake Ontario, with low to mid 40s
elsewhere toward Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The remainder of this period continues to be unsettled. A deepening
upper level trough over the Western CONUS will propagate eastward
resulting in the next low pressure system to advance northeast
across the Mississippi Valley and Mid-Western portions of the lower
48. Model guidance differs on the exact position and timing, but
rain will continue to overspread the area with the warm frontal
passage Monday morning, followed by the passage of a cold front
early Tuesday morning. High pressure will follow in the wake of the
low pressure system and its associated frontal boundaries passages,
briefly lowering the chances for precip until another wave of low
pressure advances towards the region early Wednesday morning. Due to
low confidence in the position and timing of these features, kept
rain chances in the forecast through Thursday. Will have to keep an
eye on these systems as time moves forward.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR to LIFR conditions will be found from KBUF/KIAG to KROC through
about 06z...while MVFR cigs will be found across the North Country.
These low cigs and areas of dense fog will gradually improve
overnight...especially after 08z when the entire region is expected
to have VFR weather.

On Friday...a storm system passing well to our west will encourage
gusty sfc winds of up to 30 knots near Lake Erie...otherwise VFR
conditons are anticipated.

A strong cold front will push across western New York Friday night.
This will generate a fair amount of shower activity with
thunderstorms also possible. VFR cigs will deteriorate to MVFR
levels for the bulk of the night.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR cigs in the morning will gradually improve to VFR.
Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night and Monday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will push north of Lake Ontario overnight. Winds will
freshen a little ahead of a cold front tonight and Friday, but a
southerly flow will direct the highest waves into International
waters.

Northwesterly winds increase behind a cold front late Friday night,
which will likely require small craft headlines for at least some of
the waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...HSK/PP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel



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