757
FXUS61 KBUF 081438
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1038 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A taste of fall-like weather again today, with lake effect showers
continuing mainly east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Another round
of showers and possible thunderstorms arrive Monday as a fast moving
system drops through the region. Fair dry weather returns areawide
Tuesday, with a day to day warming trend and summer-like weather
for the the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Partly to mostly sunny skies this morning for areas across WNY, with
clouds increasing toward the northeastern portions of the forecast
area as lake clouds & showers move off of Lake Ontario. Morning
temperatures are in the 50s for most areas, though a few upper 40s
are found across the highest terrain.

Cyclonic flow around a mid-level low to our north will direct a cool
airmass across the lakes supporting lake effect rain showers east
and southeast of Lake Ontario. As the mid-level low slowly drift
north away from the Lower Lakes today, we should see organized lake
effect rain showers become less organized this morning and
especially by this afternoon. Otherwise...showers coverage outside
of the lake effect areas will be sparse, most locales will seeing
partly sunny skies and breezy conditions with winds gusting up to 30
mph. Again we will see a touch of fall-like weather areawide. Cool
but pleasant for the most part with highs in the cooler spots in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tonight...as the low pulls further away, the flow will shift more to
the west. Some additional moisture will cause some measure of lake
effect showers to re-develop east of the lakes overnight.
However...there will be less lake induced instability as 850mb temps
warm to +7C. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s
by Monday morning.

A potent shortwave will drop down the backside of the broader trough
on Monday. Given the advertised favorable arrival time around peak
heating (greatest instability), it appears that there will be the
potential for some strong storms which may be capable of producing
gusty winds and hail.

Otherwise...it will once again be breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. It
won`t be as cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A robust shortwave and its associated shower activity will exit our
forecast area to the southeast Monday evening. Mid level moisture in
the wake of this feature will then be quickly stripped away...and
this will lead to significant clearing during the course of the
overnight.

A transitory mid level ridge crossing the Lower Great Lakes and its
associated sfc high over the Mid Atlantic region will GUARANTEE
glorious weather for our region Tuesday and Wednesday...as we can
fully expect sun filled skies with notable day to day warming.
Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s for Tuesday...then
the start of a summery stretch will begin Wednesday when the mercury
will soar to the lower 80s across the bulk of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The calendar will say mid September during this period...but it will
feel more like late July or August. A highly amplified mid level
ridge parked over eastern Canada will support the fair warm
weather...as temperatures will average some 10 degrees above normal
with daytime max temps hovering in the low to mid 80s. Not only is
there high confidence for a prolonged stretch of summer warmth...but
it is highly likely that a drop of rain will not fall on the region
through this period.

Looking further out through the end of next weekend into the third
week of the month...strong consensus among several of the medium
range guidance packages maintains troughiness over the north
Atlantic and Greenland...which favors above normal hgts and warmer
than normal weather for our region. This fairly confident forecast
is further supported by similar thinking by the Climate Prediction
Center...which has a bullseye of high confidence for above normal
temps over the Great Lakes region during this period in their 8 to
14 day temperature outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue across area terminals that don`t
see lake effect rain showers this morning.

Diurnal CU will develop this afternoon, with ceilings between 3.5-5k
feet. It`ll be breezy wind gusts up to 25 knots. Higher gusts will
be found near the southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Tonight...VFR will be found across all terminals not impacted by
lake effect showers.

Outlook...
Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong WNW flow around the low will become west and
continue to produce small craft conditions on area lakes today into
Monday.

The cool cyclonic air wrapping around the low will also support the
risk for waterspouts. Waterspouts are most likely to be found in and
near bands of convective lake effect clouds and showers.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>007-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/SW
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR