Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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550
FXUS61 KBUF 160525
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
125 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge from the Northeast to the eastern Great
Lakes providing an extended period of mainly dry weather which will
last into next week. Meanwhile, there will be a gradual warming
trend through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc ridge overhead will provide dry weather tonight. Good
radiational cooling conditions expected again, except a bit more
cloud cover may limit cooling across the Western Southern Tier.
Lows will generally range from the upper 30s to upper 40s, but
a bit cooler across some of the valleys in Lewis County where
areas of frost are possible.

Sunday, another shortwave trough will push through the region.
Coverage of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm might be a
bit better than today with somewhat better instability, but again
any convection will inland well away from lake shadowing. Diurnal
showers will again taper off by Sunday evening, with another cool
and dry night on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge axis will be centered over the upper Midwest and upper
Great Lakes on Monday keeping weak northwest flow in place
across the Northeast. A weak mid level shortwave will move
through the northwest flow aloft on Monday, and combine with
diurnal heating and lake breeze/terrain boundaries to bring the
potential for a few isolated showers during the afternoon well
inland from the Lakes. However, the vast majority of the area
will remain dry. The mid level ridge axis will drift east to the
central Great Lakes Monday night, then to the eastern Great
Lakes by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Associated
subsidence and dry air will provide dry weather for the Monday
night through Tuesday night timeframe.

Daytime highs will continue to slowly increase through the first
part of next week. Highs Monday will be mainly in the lower 70s
across the lower elevations with upper 60s for the higher terrain.
Highs Tuesday will gain a few more degrees, making it into the lower
to mid 70s across most areas, with some upper 70s possible in the
traditionally warmer locations. Synoptic scale flow will be light
both days, with local lake breeze circulations bringing cooler
temperatures to the lakeshores. Overnight lows will generally range
from the upper 40s to the low and mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over our region this
period...with heights peaking Thursday-Friday around 588 dm across
SW NYS. This should keep our region generally rain free, until
Saturday when falling heights due to a shortwave cresting the ridge,
and increased moisture and instability brings chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No weather anticipated with sfc ridge overhead providing VFR
overnight.

Sunday, weak disturbance will bring about a bit of an uptick in
showers well inland from the lakes. Might bring localized MVFR with
in any showers. Also, lake breeze wind flows will also play a bit of
a role for terminals typically impacted by the lakes.

Outlook...
Sunday night through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will keep a
weak graident in place resulting in light and variable winds through
at least early next week. Expect a brief uptick in winds during the
afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/TMA



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