Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 030006
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
806 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A round of showers and thunderstorms may be locally severe late this
evening over western New York with a second wave of showers and
thunderstorms possible Wednesday morning. Generally dry conditions
then follow with higher temperatures for the remainder of the work
week. Unsettled and cooler conditions are likely this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

There will potentially be two MCS (or remnants of) which will impact
the region tonight through Wednesday morning.

SPC highlights a slight risk of severe weather with an initial wave
late this evening, with hail and strong to damaging winds the
primary threat.

After this moves through there will be a break in the action late
tonight, with only scattered showers. However, there is good
agreement among mesoscale guidance that an MCS will move across far
Western NY around daybreak Wednesday. Unlike the first wave, our
region will be in the northern sector of this wave, which will limit
the severe weather potential but increase the risk for heavy rain.
Most likely timing is between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m.

Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday afternoon due to the combination of instability and
the passage of a cold front.

The vast majority of Wednesday night will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure and dry weather to start the period.

Unsettled with showers Friday afternoon and evening with potential
frontal passage. General frontal speeds accepted from ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Most areas to be fair and dry with Canadian high gradually building
across the region. 50/50 use of NBM and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While VFR conditions will be in place throughout the region through
midnight...showers and thunderstorms will become likely. This will
especially be the case across the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake
Ontario region. Some of the storms in the Finger Lakes region could
be strong to severe.

In the wake of the showers and thunderstorms...cigs overnight
are forecast to drop to IFR to MVFR levels at KJHW and KART.

An area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will
then cross western New York Wednesday morning. IFR to MVFR
conditions will accompany this area of unsettled weather. As we
push through the midday...VFR flight conditions will return to the
region.

There will also be a brief window for some low level wind shear...
mainly over the western counties...between about 03-06z.

Outlook...
Thursday...VFR.
Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.
Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Choppy conditions will be found on Lake Erie for most of
tonight...as moderate to fresh southwesterlies will be in place.
Weaker winds will be noted on Lake Ontario. There will also be the
risk for thunderstorms this evening...and again Wednesday morning.
The latter will especially be the case for Lake Erie when the storms
Wednesday morning could be strong.

In the wake of a frontal passage Wednesday morning...moderate west
to southwest winds will be found throughout the region. This will
produce choppy conditions on the eastern half of Lake Ontario during
the afternoon and evening...although SCA advisories are unlikely at
this time.

Weak high pressure crossing the Lower Great Lakes Thursday and
Thursday night will support generally light winds and negligible
waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fries/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH


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