477
FXUS61 KBUF 191722
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
122 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into
overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe
criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight).

2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold
front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this
evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to
reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and
Tonight).

Mid-level ridge axis will depart east today, allowing for the next
shortwave trough to pass northeastward out of the base of the
longwave trough placed over the western half of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, an associated surface low, currently over Lake Superior
this morning will progress northeast across Ontario and eventually
into Quebec today and tonight, where it will drag its cold front
across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to
3AM. However ahead of the front`s arrival, Expect strong to severe
storms to spread from west to east around 5PM to 7PM this evening.
CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening),
combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential
for damaging wind gusts, which will be the main hazard type. Though
large hail and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out as the
forecast profiles continue to highlight "fat" CAPE soundings along
with widespread 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2, with localized
pockets of 300-400 m^2/s^2 across far western NY. This all being
said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the
forecast region under a Slight Risk (Risk level 2 of 5), with the
best window for severe weather occurring between 6-7PM this evening
through 1-2AM tonight.

Forecast confidence waivers some, due to the time of arrival with
the activity being during a gradual loss of daytime heating, which
creates the question whether or not the line of activity will keep
up its intensity, especially later in the evening. Current thinking
continues to support the line arriving in western New York, before
splitting into two distinct areas, one passing north into the North
Country where it will become less potent, and the other segment
diving east-southeast across the western Southern Tier before it
gradually wanes overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air
and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later
half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The
coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the
50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures
heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and
a few locations reaching the low 70s.

While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure
will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return
of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Morning showers have dissipated within the last few hours, leaving
behind partly cloudy skies across the eastern Lake Ontario region
this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, ceilings remain VFR. Clouds
will continue to disperse for the next few hours, supporting VFR
conditions to prevail. A patch of mid-level cumulus will brush
across WNY towards the Genesee Valley in the next few hours, though
flight conditions will remain VFR. Otherwise outside of the clouds,
it is quite breezy today as the area lies between exiting high
pressure and an incoming cold front. Winds are gusting between 20 to
25 knots regionwide, with a localized maxima of up to 30 knots
across the Niagara Frontier.

As previously hinted at, a cold front will trudge east this
afternoon sparking a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable enough to support storms to
become severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large
hail and an isolated tornado. Storms are expected to arrive across
far Western New York around 23Z to 00Z and make their way east
across the region, with activity ending between 05Z and 06Z. Expect
localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger
storms.

In the wake of the cold front, ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR
during the later half of the night. Return of surface high pressure
Wednesday will support all TAF sites to return to VFR by the
afternoon.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low
pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching
cold front today is currently supporting the moderate
southwesterlies and Small Craft Advisory criteria waves on the
western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. There will be a brief
lull in the wind and wave action tonight, before winds shift to the
northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria
Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still
strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into
overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across
the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail.

Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ