366
FXUS61 KBUF 220817
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
417 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across western and north-central NY
today. Gusty winds and a few hours of showers can be expected today.
Colder air moves into the region and lingering rain showers will
changeover to snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain. High
pressure will then return to promote fair weather for Saturday night
and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional and upstream radars show precipitation approaching the
forecast area this morning. Clouds will continue to thicken this
morning and dry weather will soon come to an end.

Riding from the surface to the mid-levels is along the eastern
seaboard this morning. Broken mid to high level clouds continue
across the forecast area. A cold front extends from low pressure
near James Bay to southern Illinois. MRMS reflectivity shows a
broken line of light rain showers well out ahead of the cold front
which hi-res guidance is not handling that well. While moisture is
very limited with this system, light rain showers will enter western
NY near daybreak. Showers will expand in coverage and intensity as
the upper level trough and cold front near the region through the
morning hours. The cold front will move across the forecast area
quickly today. Southwest winds will become westerly and gusty. An
upslope component will enhance showers across the Chautauqua Ridge
and Boston Hills region. Strong cold air advection will cause
temperatures to fall through the 30s this afternoon. Any lingering
showers will changeover to snow with the best chance across the
higher terrain. A coating to an inch is possible. Strong
subsidence behind the cold front will allow the sun to make an
appearance across western NY this afternoon. Rainfall amounts
will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. Amounts of a
tenth to two tenths are possible along the Chautauqua Ridge to
southern Erie and western Wyoming counties, and the Tug Hill.
High temperatures in the 40s will be met early today.

A cold airmass will move across the region tonight. Temperatures at
850mb will fall to near -13C and lake clouds are likely southeast of
the Lakes overnight. Lows will fall to the teens with wind chills in
the single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure across the region Sunday morning will slide
east through the day, with a mid level ridge cresting over the
region. This will result in a fair weather day with a gradual
increase in higher level cloud cover from the west through the day.

Rapid progression of two mid level systems places the eastern Great
Lakes in line for the next round of precipitation by Sunday night.
Surface low pressure pushing through the upper Great lakes will
tap into plenty of Gulf moisture. Thermal profiles suggesting
some risk for some wet snow early in the event, with the
greatest chance for a rain/snow mix or all snow will be across
higher terrain and North Country. A coating of snow is certainly
possible for these areas.

Warmer air wraps into the system later Sunday night into Monday as
the system occludes. This will allow any snow to change to rain by
Monday as temperatures work through the 40s, with 50s for the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, although southwest winds
will become brisk, particularly across the Niagara Frontier.

A colder airmass spreads into the region Monday night behind the
system cold front. Moist cyclonic flow will maintain the risk for
for showers, mainly east of the lakes where upslope enhancement will
likely come into play. The falling temperatures will encourage all
precipitation to change back over to snow overnight. Some minor
accumulations are possible across the higher terrain east of both
lakes, with up to an inch east of Lake Erie and 1-2" on the Tug Hill.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Continued unsettled pattern briefly becomes more amplified through
mid week with a ridge building over the western and central CONUS
with a downstream digging trough across the eastern United States.
Disturbances rotating through the cool, moist cyclonic flow will
keep chances for rain and snow showers (mainly nocturnal snow with
exception of higher terrain) in the forecast through Wednesday/
Wednesday night with chilly conditions.

Model consensus diverges some in the finer details for the back half
of the period, however appears main trough axis should swing through
by Thursday with downstream ridging quickly building in from the
west drying things out. This drier weather may be brief with some
warmer air and increasing moisture bringing the next chance for some
rain/snow showers again Thursday night, becoming all liquid as we
close out the work week.

Otherwise, it will be chilly with below average temperatures through
much of the period, then nearing normal readings by the tail end of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flight conditions reside across western and north-central NY
this morning. A strong cold front is approaching from the west and
clouds will thicken and showers will enter far western NY around
daybreak. The front will quickly move across the region today with
rain showers spreading eastward through the morning. Cold air will
filter into the region behind the front and some rain showers will
changeover to snow, mainly across the higher terrain east of the
Lakes Saturday afternoon. Dry air will move into the region and
clearing will occur as early as this afternoon for western NY.
Further clearing will occur to the east this evening, with lake
effect clouds lingering southeast of the Lakes.

A 40kt low level jet may produce low level wind shear at KIAG/KROC
late tonight into this morning. Diurnal mixing especially behind the
cold front will create a well mixed boundary layer with gusts 25 to
35 mph through the afternoon.

Flight conditions will become MVFR with rain showers. IFR conditions
are possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie early this
afternoon. Flight conditions will improve to VFR across western NY
this afternoon, with the exception of low clouds persisting across
the higher terrain. Conditions will improve to VFR at KART this
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR conditions. Snow developing and changing to rain Sunday
night. IFR to MVFR conditions.
Monday...MVFR CIGS with rain and snow showers likely.
Tuesday and Wednesday ...MVFR CIGS with a chance of rain and snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southerlies will develop tonight and then freshen today, as
the next cold front moves through the region. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for the eastern end of Lake Erie, Lower Niagara River,
and Lake Ontario through tonight.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM
         EDT this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK