240
FXUS62 KCAE 220203
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1003 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is moving through the area with near normal
temperatures expected overnight and elevated winds. Wind gusts
toward 30-40 mph remain possible Thursday. Dry weather and
cooler temperatures then expected into the weekend. We return to
a more seasonable pattern for Sunday with temperatures rising
back to near or above normal and a chance of rain each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy conditions continue this evening.

- Near normal overnight low temperatures.

A weak front is pushing through the FA this evening as a subtle
wind shift can be seen toward the upstate of GA/SC with winds
turning a bit more out of the west-northwest here. Wind gusts
toward 25 mph are continuing this evening as a building 35 kt
LLJ should allow gusts to continue to mix down before a bit more
of an inversion forms. Forecast soundings do not show complete
decoupling overnight tonight and thus I expect winds to remain
elevated near 5-10 mph, but a brief window near daybreak may
allow for light winds. Some passing high clouds are possible
into Thursday morning as an upper trough centered over the Ohio
Valley pivots in, but 925-700 mb winds shift out of the
northwest, ushering in cooler and drier air with PWAT`s near
0.50". This cold advection coupled with mostly clear skies
should allow temperatures to fall near average, in the upper 50s
to low 60s, though if winds do not go light for the couple
hours leading to daybreak, overnight lows could be a tad warmer
than forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Winds gusting to 30-40 mph expected Thursday with a Lake Wind
  Advisory in effect from 2pm-8pm.

- An isolated shower possible early Friday as a weak disturbance
  moves through.

As a broad trough occludes and digs over the NE Conus, a
reinforcing shot of northwesterly flow will punch into the
region for Thursday, enhancing surface gusts and cold, dry
advection for the area. With deep mixing up through roughly
700mb, the strong flow aloft should efficiently mix down and
gusts to 30-35 mph are expected with a few spots pushing 40 mph.
Due to this, A Lake Wind Advisory has now been issued from 2pm
until 8pm Thursday. Guidance has not trended winds at the top
of the mixed layer much higher at this time, but this will
continue to be monitored as a Wind Advisory could be warranted
for gusts that could near 45 mph. Temps will finally fall as the
cold advection strengthens so highs should only top up in the
low 80`s despite clear skies.

For Friday, northwest flow will again continue but some of the
global guidance does show a weak vort max pivoting through the
primary trough axis. Low levels are quite dry, so precip chances
are quite low despite this but an odd shower cannot be ruled out
Friday morning. Behind this quick shortwave, northwesterly dry
flow will continue again and the rest of Friday will remain
breezy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Flow becomes more zonal so seasonable temps and moisture
  returns.

By Saturday, the broad trough to our north will break and shift
east, causing generally rising heights and more zonal flow for
our area. The breakdown of northwesterly flow aloft will allow
moisture to return to the area Saturday onward, along with
steadily warming temps. Moisture and forcing remains limited
enough on Saturday to mitigate most precip chances for our area
but by Sunday an approaching low and front will increase PWAT`s
to support some elevated rain-storm chances. While not a very
anomalous pattern by any means, NAEFS and EC EFI highlight the
period over the weekend and into next week well, showing
increasing heights, moisture, and QPF during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

Skies becoming mostly clear behind the exiting cold front, with
mainly some thin cirrus moving across the area. Biggest issue
the next 24 hours will be the winds. Gusty winds will continue
through 02z this evening, then they diminish to between 5 and
10 knots overnight. As the low-level inversion sets up though,
winds around 500 ft will increase to around 35 knots through
09z, then diminish through sunrise. Have included a period of
llws to account for the strong winds just off the surface
overnight. Wind speeds will once again increase late Thursday
morning as the inversion breaks and strong mixing takes hold.
Winds at the top of the mixed layer may approach 40 knots, so
gusty winds around 30 knots will be possible into the afternoon
hours on Thursday. Dry conditions should prevent any fog from
developing tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are likely outside of
mainly diurnal convection and typical vsby issues at AGS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$