Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 200729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
329 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

High pressure will will remain over the area today but will
weaken as low pressure develops off the coast. Much of the
moisture associated with developing low off the Southeast Coast
on Wednesday will stay east of the forecast area, but there
could be some light rain over the eastern Midlands. A weak
cold front will cross the region Thursday bringing a chance
of showers. Warm and dry weather is expected for the end of the
week into the weekend.


Latest satellite imagery continue to show mainly clear skies
over the region, but a few mid-level clouds are starting to
advect in from the east, in association with low developing off
the coast. A freeze warning and frost advisory remain in
effect through this morning across the forecast area as
temperatures will continue to fall into the lower to mid 30s
with radiational cooling expected. However, frost may not be
widespread since some areas will not get cold enough if winds
due not subside.

High-res models have become more consistent in bringing light
rain to the northeastern Midlands today in association with the
coastal low. The best chance for rain will be this afternoon
through early evening, but accumulations will be minimal given a
dry northerly low-level flow. Temperatures today will be similar
to yesterday with highs in the mid 50s north to low 60s south.


Low pressure off the coast will exit the region tonight. Any
lingering rain over the north Midlands and Pee Dee Region will
end overnight. An upper level trough crossing the region
Thursday will push a weak cold front across the region. Could
see a few showers associated with the front mainly across the
north Midlands associated with stronger shortwave energy and
deep moisture. Dry conditions are expected area-wide Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds back into the region from
the west.

Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night are forecast in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will  be near normal Thursday
with highs ranging through the 60s.


The GFS and ECMWF are in relatively good agreement Friday
through Sunday as dry surface high pressure builds across the
region. Near normal temperatures Friday and Saturday will warm
into the 70s for Sunday.

Timing differences begin to show with next system that will affect
the area early next week. Surface high pressure will be east of the
area on Monday with low pressure over the Plains approaching the
region from the west. Both models show a cold front moving through
the area ahead of the system, but differ on arrival of main area of
low pressure. If both ECMWF and GFS come to fruition, temperatures
will be colder than forecast for early next week with increasing
chances for rain and low level northeast flow. We went with mild
temperatures Monday, then turning cooler for Tuesday.


Expect VFR conditions during the 24-hour TAF period.

Dry high pressure will remain over the area through tonight,
with light and variable of northeast winds. Despite clear
skies, fog is not a concern due to dry air mass. Mid-level
clouds increasing Wednesday especially across the eastern
Midlands as a weak coastal low pressure develops, but VFR
conditions should prevail at the terminals.

Moisture associated with low pressure off the Southeast Coast
may result in restrictions late Wednesday and Wednesday night,
but guidance is mixed so left out of the TAFs for this cycle.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The low will lift farther northeast
of the area Thursday and dry high pressure will likely dominate
over the weekend.


GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-063>065-
SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ018-025-
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ015-016-


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