Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

A cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore overnight.
Dry and cool conditions are foreseen for Friday. Rain chances
will return to the area Saturday through early Sunday as a weak
low pressure system crosses the region. Unsettled weather will
remain over the area through much of next week.


The cold front is now well offshore with cooler and quieter
conditions today as cold air advects into the region. Dewpoints have
dropped significantly from what they were yesterday with high
pressure building into the region. Later this morning and afternoon,
moisture will slowly increase with westerly flow bringing in
some mid and high level clouds. The pressure gradient will relax
making for light winds through most of the near term. Expect
mostly sunny skies into the afternoon with highs a few degrees
below normal in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, winds will calm shortly after sunset as surface high
pressure remains over the area. Clouds will increase further this
evening as the next system begins to near the region. The increased
moisture will keep overnight temperatures around average in the low
50s. Flow aloft looks to become more zonal as the low off New
England continues to push further east. A weak front will begin to
move east into the area during the early morning hours Saturday.
There will be a very tight gradient of precip with PWATs around an
inch along the CSRA and below an inch further into the Midlands.
With very weak forcing and available moisture during this time
period, not expecting much to measure prior to 12z. Isolated to
scattered showers closer to sunrise. Lowered the PoPs especially in
the central and northern Midlands as deeper moisture does not look
to arrive until later in the day.


Saturday and Saturday night...Disorganized and weak low
pressure will be over the region with the frontal boundary
over southern GA slowly lifting northward. Rain is expected
Saturday into Saturday night mainly from the central Midlands
through CSRA. Concerns remain as low level flow will be weak and
850 mb and above winds will be westerly with some downsloping
potential. There will be divergence aloft however dynamics will
be weak and instability minimal with a cap around 800 mb and mid
level lapse rates under 6 C/Km. As such have continued with high
chance to likely pops and QPF amounts ranging from around one
quarter inch in the southern CSRA to a couple hundredths in the
northern Midlands. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
60s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night...Models continue to have some variance
with the location of the front Sunday with consensus keeping the
front just south of the far southern CSRA and southeastern
Midlands. Through the day and into Sunday night the front will
slowly slide away from the region as an upper level trough moves
from the central US into the eastern US and high pressure
builds over the western Gulf States. Concern for Sunday is
models indicate weak low pressure developing over the region
which could result in the front being slightly further north and
spreading rain into the southern CSRA and eastern Midlands. Have
remained with a dry forecast and will continue to monitor
potential. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with
lows again in the upper 40s to low 50s.


Upper level trough axis will cross the region early Monday with
drier air building in Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
With a highly amplified and slow moving upper level pattern
another upper level trough will be moving from the central US
into the eastern US Tuesday with weak low pressure along the
Gulf Coast. Ensembles continue having differences for Tuesday
with most recent solutions indicating moisture returning to the
forecast area and slight chances of showers. Much of the
moisture will be trapped south of the forecast area resulting in
minimal QPF amounts. The upper level trough will cross the area
Tuesday night with drier air returning for Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures through the long term will be near


VFR through the 24 hour TAF period.

Some VFR high level cirrus has overspread the area with
otherwise fair skies. Expect more cloud coverage this evening
as the next frontal system nears the Southeast. Considering how
dry the low levels are, it is unlikely there will be any
visibility and ceiling restrictions through the period. Winds
will continue to be mainly northerly through the morning at
5-10kt. This afternoon, winds will shift back west with more VFR
mid to high level clouds. Calm after sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Visibility and ceiling restrictions
possible Saturday and Sunday as more moisture moves into the




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