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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 312250
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will remain across the region through
Thursday. Intensifying low pressure will track south of
the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night through Thursday.
High pressure will build across the region later Friday
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No sig chgs made to the fcst this update. Fcst hrly temps/dwpts
were updated into the ovrngt using past obsvd aftn hi temps and
latest sfc obs trends with chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm.

Prev Disc: An upper level low will remain across the region
tonight through Wednesday while a disturbance rotating around
the upper low moves west across the forecast area. Clouds in
advance of the disturbance are moving across eastern portions of
the forecast area and will advect across the remainder of the
forecast area early tonight. Isolated to scattered snow showers
will expand westward across the forecast area overnight with the
upper level disturbance, with the better chances across
northern and eastern areas. Any snow accumulations across
northern portions of the forecast area overnight are generally
expected to be less than an inch. The disturbance will cross the
region Wednesday. Across northern areas, morning snow showers
will mix with rain showers during the afternoon. Additional snow
accumulations of up to around an inch are possible across
northern areas Wednesday. Across Downeast areas, morning
snow/rain showers will transition to rain showers during the
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to
upper 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 30s
north, to the lower 40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong blocking pattern continues with a powerful North Atlantic
high that will slowly retrograde into northeastern Canada by the
end of the period. Low pressure currently organizing in North
Carolina will rapidly deepen in the open Atlantic Wednesday into
Wednesday night and track northeastward south and east of the
40/70 benchmark. A warm front will propagate westward from New
Brunswick in the easterly flow with steady rain breaking out
later Wednesday night and continuing much of Thursday, and into
Thursday night towards the coast. Overall, the low is tracking
a bit further north than advertised in yesterday`s guidance and
is stronger. Therefore, QPF towards the coast has increased to
three-quarters of an inch and it`s possible up to an inch could
fall by later Thursday night. Precip will be in the form of
rain. A strong easterly LLJ is still indicated. With current
forecast temps/dew points/QPF, am not anticipating ice movement
on northern rivers, but increases in any of these parameters
will increase risk. There will be significant snowmelt in the
northern zones. The blocking high presses south later Thursday
as the low slowly wobbles back to the south. Drier and less
humid air will slowly work southward Thursday night into Friday.
Clouds remain Friday with plenty of 850mb moisture, but winds
will be the big concern with the tight pressure gradient
between the departing low and the high to the north. Gusts to 35
mph are possible from the northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The big blocking high over eastern Canada will continue to be
the dominant feature through the period. Light winds, sunny
skies and above normal temperatures can be anticipated for the
weekend. Low dew points in the teens and 20s and nighttime temps
in the 20s will ensure snow melt is well controlled. Continued
to adjust dew points down below guidance through the weekend.
Guidance continues to vary dramatically on whether a frontal
system can successfully navigate through the blocking ridge
Sunday night into Monday. The GFS has been consistent in
washing out the front while GEM/ECMWF effects continue to vary
with each run. Tended to favor GFS, but still left in chance
PoPs Sunday night and slight chance PoPs in the north on Monday.
There`s not much cold air in place so mostly rainshower
activity is indicated. The blocking ridge remains into early
next week, but will gradually break down by mid week. Above
normal temperatures are expected through the long term, but low
dew points will likely continue with dry Canadian air mass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region early
tonight. Conditions will then lower to MVFR/IFR levels across
northern areas overnight, with MVFR conditions developing
Downeast. Snow showers will develop across the region
overnight, with the better chances across northern and eastern
areas. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across northern areas
Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions Downeast. Across northern
areas, morning snow showers Wednesday will mix with rain
showers during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, morning
snow/rain showers will transition to rain showers during the
afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night into Thursday night...Predominately IFR cigs
with tempo IFR vis in rain/drizzle. LLWS likely especially
towards BGR and BHB.

Friday into early Saturday morning...MVFR cigs. Gusty NE winds
up to 30 kt.

Saturday into Sunday...Becoming predominately VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters tonight. Small craft advisory conditions could then
persist on much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters, Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in
scattered rain/snow showers Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions Wednesday night will increase to
gale conditions on Thursday. The gale will continue into Friday
night. A few gusts to storm strength are possible Thursday
night. Seas will build towards 13 feet Friday. Two wave groups
are expected during the gale, a steep NE wind-driven wave and a
long period SE swell that will be approaching the 13 feet.
After the gale ends, SCA conditions persist into Saturday
morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Looking at ETSS with the NE winds for Friday morning`s high
tide, a surge of up to two feet is possible. Relatively low
astronomical tides reduce the risk of coastal flooding. Can`t
rule out some minor splashover with the Friday AM high tide at
usually vulnerable spots such as Seawall Rd.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW
Tides/Coastal Flooding...MW