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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201316
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
916 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track up to our northwest today pulling a warm
front into the region. The front will stall across the north
tonight as the low tracks across the area. Low pressure will
continue east through the Maritimes on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 9:00 AM: Have made adjustments based on latest
observations. No other changes.

Low pressure lifting up to our west will pull a warm front
north across the area today. High pressure off to the east will
hold damp and cooler air across eastern areas while some of the
warmer air will push into the west during the course of the day.
Latest guidance is now showing that the warm front should make
it up into northern Maine late today before the triple point
occlusion forms a low across the north early this evening. Some
occasional rain will occur along and just east of the front
during the day. The warmer more humid air over the colder water
will likely result in fog right along the coast. Convergence
along a trailing cold front may produce some convection, with
thunderstorms most likely over western parts of the central
highlands and Downeast this afternoon. Some elevated
thundershowers are likely further north. Capes over
southwestern parts of our area range from 500 to 1000 J/KG today
with the highest in the Bangor area. Any thunderstorms will
likely continue east across Downeast areas early in the evening.
Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night with some showers in mainly
eastern areas is expected. Low pressure will consolidate to our
east on Tuesday as the cold upper low tracks in from the west.
This will bring low overcast and some rain and drizzle across
the north with cooler temps, and a partly to mostly cloudy sky
Downeast. A breeze will pick up out of the north and northwest
as the low continue east on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stacked low pres will be lifting to the east Tuesday night w/the
shower activity winding down and pulling to the east during the
evening. Expecting some partial clearing south of the Houlton-
Millinocket region, while the rest of the region should see
mostly cloudy conditions. This will help to keep temps up some
overnight, but still below the norms for May.

Wednesday looks to remain below normal and overcast for most of
the day as the region still stays under the influence of the low
to the east. The model guidance tends to move systems such as
this latest one., out of the region too quickly. An upper level
disturbance is shown by the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian Global to
slide south across the CWA during the afternoon. The best
forcing associated w/this disturbance will be across the n and
nw as some showers are expected. Decided to boost pops in these
areas to 20-30%. Rainfall will be light w/amounts < 0.10". The
rest of the CWA should stay dry but remaining cool w/a northerly
wind of 10-15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chilly Wednesday night w/some clearing as high pres starts
moving in from the w. Overnight temps are forecast to drop into
the mid and upper 30s across the n and w, while the rest of the
region will be seeing lower 40s.

Thursday looks to be a dry day for the most part w/moderating
temps reaching into the 60s. There is an interesting feature
that is showing up on the last few runs of the long range
guidance that could affect portions of the southern areas later
Thursday into Thursday night. All the long range guidance is
picking up on this feature which looks to be some form of an
MCS that rolls out of the Great Lakes, and moves across NYS and
then through southern New England w/the threat for heavy rain.
The northern edge of the rain shield looks to move across
southern Piscataquis and Penobscot County and along the coast.
Decided to follow a blend of the guidance and brought 20-30% up
into the aforementioned areas during this timeframe. High pres
re-establishes itself across the region on Friday w/temperatures
getting closer to normal. Clouds are expected to move into the
region Friday night ahead an approaching frontal system. This
system is shown by the long range guidance to move into the
region during the day on Saturday and bring some rain, which
looks to continue into Sunday. A quick look at the tstm
probabilitiesshows percentages to be quite low. So, decided to
leave any mention of thunder out of the forecast attm.
Temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend look to start out cool
for Saturday but could warm well into the 60s and possibly low
70s by the later part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions are likely today into tonight
in low clouds and some fog as the warm front lifts across the
area. Some thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the south.
IFR conditions will likely persist across the north on Tuesday
with conditions improving to MVFR or VFR Downeast.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR for the northern terminals for Tuesday
night while KBGR and KBHB seeing improving conditions to VFR.
MVFR looks like it will hang on for a time Wednesday mainly
north of KHUL w/some showers. From KHUL to KBHB, conditions
look to be VFR. VFR looks to be the rule for all terminals
Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Update 9:00 AM: Will update waves with 12Z NWPS.

 A SCA for seas will be up for today and tonight for
the offshore waters for seas up to 5 ft. Winds will be near or
just below SCA. Fog will likely limit visibilities today and
tonight as warmer and more humid air moves over the colder
waters. Seas should gradually begin to come down on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions could surge back up near SCA later
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as N winds increase to
15-20 kt sustained on the backside of the departing low. Gusts
could hit 25 kts. Winds are then forecast to drop back below 15
kts by Wednesday night and continue the downward trend into
Thursday. Seas are expected to remain below 6 ft. The latest run
of the local wave model supports this thinking by bringing the
highest seas close to 5 ft to the outer zones into Wednesday
morning. After that, seas look to subside back to 2 ft into
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone