Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 090255 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 955 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region overnight followed by an occluded front from Quebec Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday night then slide south of the area Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 945 PM Update: No sig chgs to the prev fcst update. Fcst ovrngt lows were lowered by 2 to 3 deg F across some Cntrl and spcly Nrn vly lctns based on trends seen from latest sfc obs which already showed sfc temps near fcst lows ovr a few NW vly lctns. Hrly temps will lvl off from W to E across the FA later tngt as thicker cld cvr arrives from QB prov. Prev Disc: This late evening will be fair with msly clear skies and seasonal temperatures. As the ridge moves out of the area ovrngt, an upper lvl jet should bring the next shortwave trof from Quebec. Hi-res models show this shortwave bringing the majority of the QPF from W to E into the region well after midnight thru Tue morn. the best cvrg of snow showers with likely PoPs are expected to stay mainly across the north, while Downeast could see a slight chance of mixed precip. Fcst snow ratios despite low QPF will bring max snow accumulations around an inch or less across the N, with progressively lesser amts swrd toward the coast. Late ngt cloud cover should keep ovrngt temps sig milder than last night, with lows occurring well prior to dylgt most lctns with the arrival of increasing cld cvr from the W late tngt. Prev Disc: By Tuesday, the next ridge alf over the Great Lakes will slowly push the shortwave SE. Snow showers and clouds in the north could stick around to the afternoon, while the southern areas should start to dry out. As the ridge alf advances into the state in the evening, dry WNW winds should move the rest of the QPF out of the state. 950-850mb temperatures show the beginnings of warm air advection, which should warm hi temps temps into the lower to mid 30s N to arnd 40 Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A small shortwave trough will slide southeast of the area Tuesday night as high pressure building in from the west brings clearing. We will be on the northern edge of a large ridge of high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The return flow behind this high will begin to channel much warmer air north into our area Wednesday afternoon as the high moves off the coast. Highs Wednesday afternoon should reach the 40s across the area with a partly sunny sky. Warmer air will continue channeling north into our region behind the high Wednesday night into Thursday. However, moisture circulating into the area behind the high, and ahead of an approaching cold front, will bring increasing clouds Wednesday night followed by a mostly cloudy, breezy and warm day on Thursday. Some showers may begin to stray into the northern part of our area Thursday night as the cold front approaches. In spite of the clouds, strong warm advection should allow temperatures to reach the upper 40s to the low 50s over the area Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A small low will track along the approaching cold front Thursday night lifting to our north and keeping the air very mild over the region Thursday night. Some rain showers will be likely over the area Thursday night south of the low. The low will then pull the cold front through in its wake on Friday as it continues to our northeast. Showers will be likely with the low followed by some clearing and a windy afternoon as only moderately cooler air follows the cold front. An Arctic cold front will then approach Friday night and cross the area Saturday morning ushering in much colder air upon strong gusty northwesterly winds on Saturday as temperatures fall well below freezing. Arctic high pressure building in from central Canada will bring a continuation of gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday along with bitter cold air and a partly sunny sky north with sunshine Downeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: 945 PM Update...VFR conditions will cont into the ovrngt with gradually lowering hi/mid cld deck with light WSW winds. Arnd daybreak, snow showers are expected to affect msly Nrn TAF sites. For BGR and BHB, brief MVFR clgs Tuesday morning, then lifting to VFR for the afternoon. For HUL, CAR, and PQI, MVFR/IFR clgs/vsby Tuesday morning and into the afternoon due to mainly morning snow showers and left ovr llvl moisture. For FVE, All terminals, light W to SW winds thru Tue morning switching to NW winds in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night: VFR. NW winds. Wednesday: VFR. S winds. Wednesday night: VFR, lowering to MVFR from south to north, and possibly IFR over the north late. SW winds. Thursday: IFR to MVFR. SW winds. Thursday night: IFR. SW winds. SW wind shear. Friday. IFR becoming MVFR Then VFR. Strong gusty SW winds becoming W. Friday night: VFR. Gusty W winds. Saturday: VFR. Strong gusty NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Below SCA criteria expected with waves 1 to 3 ft through the overnight. Light SW winds tonight as a surface ridge passes over the region. By Tue, winds will switch to SW in the afternoon with gusts around 20 kt. Seas around 2 to 4 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds may approach SCA in a few gusts Tuesday night then drop below SCA Wednesday as high pressure slides south of the area. Winds may reach SCA Wednesday night through Friday in SW winds behind departing high pressure. A SCA or gale may be needed over the weekend along with possible freezing spray advisories as cold Arctic winds return for the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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