Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160520 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 120 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will crest over the state overnight into Tuesday. Tuesday night a weak upper level disturbance will move across the region. A weak cold front will push through the state Wednesday night with Canadian high pressure building into the area Thursday through Friday. Another weak cold front will cross the area Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 120 am update... Sfc ridge extending up the spine of the Appalachians tonight. Thin cirrus diving acrs the area, likely in conjunction with upr lvl s/wv mvg seen on WV imagery. Expect this wl lkly dissipate thru the course of the ovrngt but not enuf to go clr acrs the CWA. Temps hv rapidly dropped off into the m50s ovr the North Woods as winds hv gone light and hv updated to go with mins around 50 ovr the deeper vlys of northwest Aroostook. Rmndr of the area rmns unchanged. Previous Discussion... Return flow becomes established out of the SW tomorrow as warm air advection becomes established. High temperatures will generally trend up 5 to 8 degrees compared to today with a slight increase in dewpoints. The real moisture push doesn`t occur until Tuesday night for the Bangor Region and Downeast. A weak 500mb shortwave will be approaching from Quebec province by later afternoon. This feature will allow for a few isolated rain showers across the Northwoods by evening, but rainfall activity will mostly hold off until Tuesday night. Overall it will a nice summer. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... While the region will be under locally zonal flow aloft Tuesday night, a passing warm front should trigger some isolated to scatterd showers across the region. Lows Tuesday night should be around 5-10 degrees above normal. The models are in fairly good agreement that a shortwave shears off from the remains of Barry and brings mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday and possibly into early Wednesday evening Downeast. With several hundred J/kg of CAPE, and the region being in the right entrance region of a 90+kt 300 hPa jet, could see some locally stronger convection. In addition with precipitable waters forecasted from around 1.5 inches across the North Woods, St. john Valley and Central Aroostook and up to around 2 inches across the Bangor/Penobscot Region and Downeast, could see some locally heavy rainfall with any stronger convection. Will continue to mention the low end chance for localized flash flooding in the HWO across this region. Highs on Wednesday should be around 5 degrees above normal. Northern stream ridging begins to build in Wednesday night, with conditions fairly rapidly drying out from N to S. Lows Wednesday night should be around normal across the North and up to around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. The northern stream ridging continues to build over the area Thursday, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. While northern areas should be mainly sunny, closer to the coast, depending on strength/depth of onshore flow sky conditions could end up closer to mostly cloudy. For now will go with Partly sunny over Downeast and the Bangor Region. Highs on Thursday will be highly dependent on cloud cover, especially Downeast - for now expecting values within a few degrees of normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The main story in the long term will be much above normal temperatures and humidity Friday-Sunday. Saturday should be the warmest day with highs mainly from the mid 80s to around 90 (a tad cooler across higher elevations in the North and near the immediate coast). Heat indices should peak out mainly in the mid-upper 80s Friday (Around 80 Downeast), from the mid 80s to Lower 90s Saturday (highest in the Penobscot/Bangor Region) and mainly int he 80s on Sunday. There is a small chance a heat advisory could be needed in the Penobscot/Bangor Region on Saturday. The northern stream ridge axis slides to the east Thursday night, likely slow enough to keep things dry. However do have slight chance pops in across mainly western zones for late night in case the ridging gives way faster than expected. A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Friday with some mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms. The region will then be under WNW flow aloft Friday night- Sunday. The models differ on handling of shortwaves embedded in the flow during this time frame, but are in better agreement that a shortwave will impact mainly northern areas late Friday night/early Saturday - so have chance pops there and slight chance pops Downeast. Otherwise, have slight chance pops throughout during this time frame. Northern stream ridging builds over the area Sunday night, however a shortwave could be working its way over the top of the ridge, so have slight chance pops in Sunday night as well. A northern stream shortwave then should cross the area on Monday with chance pops for all but Downeast, where have slight chance pops. Temperatures will be above normal for the Long Term. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours at all terminals. Will see possible light showers mv in around midnight north of PQI with bkn cigs expected ovr southern terminals by end of TAF valid time. Light sw winds tonight will back twd the south during the course of the day but will remain below 10kts. SHORT TERM: Outlook Tuesday night-Saturday Tuesday night...Becoming MVFR late with winds from the sw. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR at Penobscot/Bangor Region and Downeast terminals in locally heavy rainfall and tstms. A brief period of MVFR possible at far northern terminals, otherwise VFR. Winds Wed afternoon will switch fm sw to n. Wednesday night-Thursday night. Most likely VFR. Low chance of MVFR or lower at coast Thursday. Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in any showers, otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Quiet weather expected over the coastal waters with west to northwest decreasing this evening. Light winds tonight and tomorrow morning will turn to the SW as a warmer and more moist airmass begins to move over the coastal waters. Waves will remain small with no large swell sets moving into the Gulf of Maine. SHORT TERM: A light to moderate over the waters will allow for winds up to around 15kt with some gusts to 20kt over the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. The pressure gradient slackens Wednesday night, then remains light through Saturday, with winds around 10 kt or less over the waters. As a result, expect sub-Small Craft Advisory Conditions over all waters Tuesday night-Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Dumont Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...Farrar/Dumont/Maloit Marine...Farrar/Dumont/Maloit

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