Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020804 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 404 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slowly cross the region today. High pressure will build across the region tonight through Monday. Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes Monday night, then along and near the coast of Maine on Tuesday before exiting into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday night. High pressure builds in on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Today, a pre-frontal sfc trof will initially cross NW ptns of the FA in the morn to SE ptns by aftn. This will likely bring the best potential of shwrs and tstms ovr the SE half of the FA, with a deep elevated mixed layer behind the initial sfc trof likely capping the potential of deep cnvctn ovr the NW hlf to msly sct shwrs and isold tstms. With lmtd sunshine potential, MUCAPEs will be msly arnd 500 J/Kg or less with lclzd pockets of 500-800 J/Kg with max high temp potential arnd 80 deg F for most low trrn lctns inland from the immediate Downeast coast. Based on this, we will plan on only mentioning hvy rnfl as the only sig enhanced element with tstms, but a few stms may contain brief gusty winds. Models indicate sct shwrs/ isold tstms ending from SE ME by Eve with most of the N already dry by late aftn as the cold front conts SE with drier air entering the FA from QB reaching SE ptns of the FA by late Sat Ngt with clrg skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak shortwave will cross northern Maine Sunday morning with very little to no shower activity. A weak cold front will drift southward towards northern Aroostook County late Sunday afternoon, leading to isolated to scattered showers. The best chance of a shower will be across the Saint John Valley and near Estcourt Station, where a stray thunderstorm is also possible as mid level lapse rates steepen and instability increases late in the afternoon. Expect cooler high temperatures in the 70s across northern Maine, with similar highs to today in the upper 70s to low 80s for Bangor and Downeast Maine. Skies become clear to mostly clear Sunday night with lows in the 40s to 50s. A jet streak moving towards the area on Monday combined with increasing mid level moisture may lead to an isolated shower across northern Maine, otherwise dry conditions are expected with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. A warm front lifting towards the area late Monday night will lead to a chance of stratiform rain, mainly across southwestern portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures will be near to slightly below normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Slightly below normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday to Friday as anomalous mid to upper level ridging develops over the Rockies and troughing develops over the northeastern U.S. Low pressure passing to the south will lead to a chance of morning rain and afternoon showers on Tuesday, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area, followed by drier conditions Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the area. Low pressure developing over Ontario and moving into Quebec on Thursday will bring increasing moisture and a chance of isolated showers across the north. A cold front progressing towards the area on Friday will bring a greater chance of showers and the possibility of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong depending on the timing of the front and how much instability can manage to develop ahead of it.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Tdy...all TAF sites MVFR/low VFR clgs with shwrs and isold - sct tstms. Patchy-areas IFR clgs/vsbys erly this morn fog for spcly KBHB. Lgt winds. Tngt...all TAF sites VFR with lgt W winds. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sunday to Monday night...VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts each afternoon. Tuesday to Tuesday evening: VFR at northern terminals, MVFR/IFR developing at southern terminals with rain. W winds 5 to 10 kts. Tuesday night-Wednesday: Becoming VFR. N winds 5 to 15 kts.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and wvs will be below SCA criteria, but initially close to marginal wv thresholds this morning in a sustained 10 to 15 kt SSWrly wind fetch. For now, given the typical climo of very stable sfc-500m lapse rates, we capped max wind gusts to 22 kt and seas to 4 ft ovr the outer most ptns of our waters durg this tm frame, which is about 70 percent of blended wv model fcst wv hts. Winds and seas then slowly cont to subside below SCA thresholds this Aftn and Tngt. Wv pds durg the entire tm frame will be 6 to 8 sec with wvs advcg from S to N. Also, marine fog will likely cont Tdy and this Eve, becmg patchy late Tngt with vsbys likely below a mile til later Tngt. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through much of the upcoming week. Rain on Tuesday may reduce visibility at times. The predominant wave group Sunday into Monday will be a south swell with a period around 7 seconds.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MStrauser Long Term...MStrauser Aviation...VJN/MStrauser Marine...VJN/MStrauser

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