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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 020804
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slowly cross the region today. High pressure
will build across the region tonight through Monday. Low pressure
moves across the Great Lakes Monday night, then along and near
the coast of Maine on Tuesday before exiting into the Canadian
Maritimes Tuesday night. High pressure builds in on Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Today, a pre-frontal sfc trof will initially cross NW ptns of
the FA in the morn to SE ptns by aftn. This will likely bring
the best potential of shwrs and tstms ovr the SE half of the
FA, with a deep elevated mixed layer behind the initial sfc trof
likely capping the potential of deep cnvctn ovr the NW hlf to
msly sct shwrs and isold tstms. With lmtd sunshine potential,
MUCAPEs will be msly arnd 500 J/Kg or less with lclzd pockets of
500-800 J/Kg with max high temp potential arnd 80 deg F for most
low trrn lctns inland from the immediate Downeast coast. Based
on this, we will plan on only mentioning hvy rnfl as the only
sig enhanced element with tstms, but a few stms may contain
brief gusty winds. Models indicate sct shwrs/ isold tstms ending
from SE ME by Eve with most of the N already dry by late aftn
as the cold front conts SE with drier air entering the FA from
QB reaching SE ptns of the FA by late Sat Ngt with clrg skies.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak shortwave will cross northern Maine Sunday morning with
very little to no shower activity. A weak cold front will drift
southward towards northern Aroostook County late Sunday
afternoon, leading to isolated to scattered showers. The best
chance of a shower will be across the Saint John Valley and near
Estcourt Station, where a stray thunderstorm is also possible as
mid level lapse rates steepen and instability increases late in
the afternoon. Expect cooler high temperatures in the 70s across
northern Maine, with similar highs to today in the upper 70s to
low 80s for Bangor and Downeast Maine. Skies become clear to
mostly clear Sunday night with lows in the 40s to 50s. A jet
streak moving towards the area on Monday combined with
increasing mid level moisture may lead to an isolated shower
across northern Maine, otherwise dry conditions are expected
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. A warm
front lifting towards the area late Monday night will lead to a
chance of stratiform rain, mainly across southwestern portions
of the forecast area. Low temperatures will be near to slightly
below normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Slightly below normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday to
Friday as anomalous mid to upper level ridging develops over the
Rockies and troughing develops over the northeastern U.S. Low
pressure passing to the south will lead to a chance of morning
rain and afternoon showers on Tuesday, mainly across the
southern half of the forecast area, followed by drier conditions
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the area. Low
pressure developing over Ontario and moving into Quebec on
Thursday will bring increasing moisture and a chance of isolated
showers across the north. A cold front progressing towards the
area on Friday will bring a greater chance of showers and the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong
depending on the timing of the front and how much instability
can manage to develop ahead of it.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Tdy...all TAF sites MVFR/low VFR clgs with shwrs and
isold - sct tstms. Patchy-areas IFR clgs/vsbys erly this morn
fog for spcly KBHB. Lgt winds.

Tngt...all TAF sites VFR with lgt W winds.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sunday to Monday night...VFR. WNW winds 5
to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts each afternoon.

Tuesday to Tuesday evening: VFR at northern terminals, MVFR/IFR
developing at southern terminals with rain. W winds 5 to 10
kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Becoming VFR. N winds 5 to 15 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and wvs will be below SCA criteria, but
initially close to marginal wv thresholds this morning in a
sustained 10 to 15 kt SSWrly wind fetch. For now, given the
typical climo of very stable sfc-500m lapse rates, we capped max
wind gusts to 22 kt and seas to 4 ft ovr the outer most ptns of
our waters durg this tm frame, which is about 70 percent of
blended wv model fcst wv hts. Winds and seas then slowly cont
to subside below SCA thresholds this Aftn and Tngt. Wv pds durg
the entire tm frame will be 6 to 8 sec with wvs advcg from S to
N. Also, marine fog will likely cont Tdy and this Eve, becmg
patchy late Tngt with vsbys likely below a mile til later Tngt.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through much of the upcoming week. Rain on
Tuesday may reduce visibility at times. The predominant wave
group Sunday into Monday will be a south swell with a period
around 7 seconds.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...VJN/MStrauser
Marine...VJN/MStrauser