Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201316 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 916 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track up to our northwest today pulling a warm front into the region. The front will stall across the north tonight as the low tracks across the area. Low pressure will continue east through the Maritimes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 9:00 AM: Have made adjustments based on latest observations. No other changes. Low pressure lifting up to our west will pull a warm front north across the area today. High pressure off to the east will hold damp and cooler air across eastern areas while some of the warmer air will push into the west during the course of the day. Latest guidance is now showing that the warm front should make it up into northern Maine late today before the triple point occlusion forms a low across the north early this evening. Some occasional rain will occur along and just east of the front during the day. The warmer more humid air over the colder water will likely result in fog right along the coast. Convergence along a trailing cold front may produce some convection, with thunderstorms most likely over western parts of the central highlands and Downeast this afternoon. Some elevated thundershowers are likely further north. Capes over southwestern parts of our area range from 500 to 1000 J/KG today with the highest in the Bangor area. Any thunderstorms will likely continue east across Downeast areas early in the evening. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night with some showers in mainly eastern areas is expected. Low pressure will consolidate to our east on Tuesday as the cold upper low tracks in from the west. This will bring low overcast and some rain and drizzle across the north with cooler temps, and a partly to mostly cloudy sky Downeast. A breeze will pick up out of the north and northwest as the low continue east on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stacked low pres will be lifting to the east Tuesday night w/the shower activity winding down and pulling to the east during the evening. Expecting some partial clearing south of the Houlton- Millinocket region, while the rest of the region should see mostly cloudy conditions. This will help to keep temps up some overnight, but still below the norms for May. Wednesday looks to remain below normal and overcast for most of the day as the region still stays under the influence of the low to the east. The model guidance tends to move systems such as this latest one., out of the region too quickly. An upper level disturbance is shown by the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian Global to slide south across the CWA during the afternoon. The best forcing associated w/this disturbance will be across the n and nw as some showers are expected. Decided to boost pops in these areas to 20-30%. Rainfall will be light w/amounts < 0.10". The rest of the CWA should stay dry but remaining cool w/a northerly wind of 10-15 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Chilly Wednesday night w/some clearing as high pres starts moving in from the w. Overnight temps are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 30s across the n and w, while the rest of the region will be seeing lower 40s. Thursday looks to be a dry day for the most part w/moderating temps reaching into the 60s. There is an interesting feature that is showing up on the last few runs of the long range guidance that could affect portions of the southern areas later Thursday into Thursday night. All the long range guidance is picking up on this feature which looks to be some form of an MCS that rolls out of the Great Lakes, and moves across NYS and then through southern New England w/the threat for heavy rain. The northern edge of the rain shield looks to move across southern Piscataquis and Penobscot County and along the coast. Decided to follow a blend of the guidance and brought 20-30% up into the aforementioned areas during this timeframe. High pres re-establishes itself across the region on Friday w/temperatures getting closer to normal. Clouds are expected to move into the region Friday night ahead an approaching frontal system. This system is shown by the long range guidance to move into the region during the day on Saturday and bring some rain, which looks to continue into Sunday. A quick look at the tstm probabilitiesshows percentages to be quite low. So, decided to leave any mention of thunder out of the forecast attm. Temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend look to start out cool for Saturday but could warm well into the 60s and possibly low 70s by the later part of the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions are likely today into tonight in low clouds and some fog as the warm front lifts across the area. Some thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the south. IFR conditions will likely persist across the north on Tuesday with conditions improving to MVFR or VFR Downeast. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR for the northern terminals for Tuesday night while KBGR and KBHB seeing improving conditions to VFR. MVFR looks like it will hang on for a time Wednesday mainly north of KHUL w/some showers. From KHUL to KBHB, conditions look to be VFR. VFR looks to be the rule for all terminals Wednesday night into Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Update 9:00 AM: Will update waves with 12Z NWPS. A SCA for seas will be up for today and tonight for the offshore waters for seas up to 5 ft. Winds will be near or just below SCA. Fog will likely limit visibilities today and tonight as warmer and more humid air moves over the colder waters. Seas should gradually begin to come down on Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Conditions could surge back up near SCA later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as N winds increase to 15-20 kt sustained on the backside of the departing low. Gusts could hit 25 kts. Winds are then forecast to drop back below 15 kts by Wednesday night and continue the downward trend into Thursday. Seas are expected to remain below 6 ft. The latest run of the local wave model supports this thinking by bringing the highest seas close to 5 ft to the outer zones into Wednesday morning. After that, seas look to subside back to 2 ft into Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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