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131
FXUS61 KCAR 162044
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
344 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak trough of low pressure crosses the region tonight
followed by high pressure on Friday. A cold front passes through
the region Saturday night and a low passes to our south Sunday
night before high pressure returns early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and observations continue
to show low cloud deck across northern portion of the forecast area
along with occasional flurries. Elsewhere, it has become mainly
clear to partly cloudy. A mid level wave will cross the region
overnight. At the surface, the pressure pattern remains weak.
Expect skies to remain mainly cloudy overnight as the wave
crosses the region. The cloud cover should once again keep
temperatures from falling all that much overnight despite the
light wind. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the Gulf of
Maine later tonight through early Friday with any snow shower
activity remaining mainly offshore. The mid level trough pushes
east early Friday with a return to ridging both at the surface
an aloft. Afternoon highs range from the low to mid 20s with
partly sunny skies. Winds will remain light.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upper-level trough moves in Friday night across Quebec with
an attendant surface low that moves north of the region. The
cold front associated with the low will pass through the region
Saturday night bringing a chance for rain Downeast and snow
farther north.

Despite some of the output from the global models which wanted
to bring the rain into northern Aroostook county the surface
temperatures barely above freezing combined with the shallow
warm layer did not support this idea. Instead, kept the
rain/snow line farther south near the cities of Dover-Foxcroft,
Millinocket, and Houlton.

Winds will be picking up during the day on Saturday, increasing
into the evening as southerly flow drives the warm air
advection for this event. Winds are expected to be in the 10-15
mph range with some gusts up to 25 mph or locally stronger where
mixing can effectively bring down winds aloft.

The cold front exits the area Sunday morning with some
potential for clearing behind the boundary. Temperatures will
start off warm and near freezing, gradually decreasing as cold
air works its way in to the region.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There is a growing possibility of a weak noreaster passing us
to the south Sunday evening which could bring some light snow to
the region. Ensemble solutions are coming into better agreement
on the existence of a storm but are still expressing
considerable uncertainty in the timing and location of it. This
still looks to be a relatively weak event and major impacts are
not expected at this time.

High pressure starts to work its way back in to the region
Monday night and with it the potential for very cold
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday where low temperatures
could get well below 0 and may not exceed 0 during the day,
especially towards the north. Some light wind Tuesday may make
the air feel even colder.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR at the Aroostook terminals and VFR for
KBGR/KBHB through Friday. Light wind through the period.

SHORT TERM: VFR Friday night into Saturday morning, becoming
MVFR in the afternoon along with light winds. Winds increase to
10-20 kts with 25-30 kt gusts Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning. IFR Saturday night and MVFR Sunday morning.

MVFR and IFR possible Sunday evening into early Monday for
Downeast terminals. VFR elsewhere.

VFR Monday night through Tuesday with winds WNW 5 to 15 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Friday. Seas will generally be around a 1 foot.


SHORT TERM: Winds/seas increase to SCA levels through Saturday,
becoming 20-30 mph with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gales possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. Seas decrease to 4 to 6 ft during the
day on Sunday with winds 15 to 20 mph, continuing at SCA levels
through the end of the period.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...TWD/Melanson
Marine...TWD/Melanson