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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 090255
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
955 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region overnight followed
by an occluded front from Quebec Tuesday. High pressure will
build into the region Tuesday night then slide south of the area
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross the region
Friday. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM Update: No sig chgs to the prev fcst update. Fcst ovrngt
lows were lowered by 2 to 3 deg F across some Cntrl and spcly
Nrn vly lctns based on trends seen from latest sfc obs which
already showed sfc temps near fcst lows ovr a few NW vly lctns.
Hrly temps will lvl off from W to E across the FA later tngt as
thicker cld cvr arrives from QB prov.

Prev Disc: This late evening will be fair with msly clear skies
and seasonal temperatures. As the ridge moves out of the area
ovrngt, an upper lvl jet should bring the next shortwave trof
from Quebec. Hi-res models show this shortwave bringing the
majority of the QPF from W to E into the region well after
midnight thru Tue morn. the best cvrg of snow showers with
likely PoPs are expected to stay mainly across the north, while
Downeast could see a slight chance of mixed precip. Fcst snow
ratios despite low QPF will bring max snow accumulations around
an inch or less across the N, with progressively lesser amts
swrd toward the coast. Late ngt cloud cover should keep ovrngt
temps sig milder than last night, with lows occurring well prior
to dylgt most lctns with the arrival of increasing cld cvr from
the W late tngt.

Prev Disc: By Tuesday, the next ridge alf over the Great Lakes
will slowly push the shortwave SE. Snow showers and clouds in
the north could stick around to the afternoon, while the
southern areas should start to dry out. As the ridge alf
advances into the state in the evening, dry WNW winds should
move the rest of the QPF out of the state. 950-850mb
temperatures show the beginnings of warm air advection, which
should warm hi temps temps into the lower to mid 30s N to arnd
40 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A small shortwave trough will slide southeast of the area Tuesday
night as high pressure building in from the west brings clearing. We
will be on the northern edge of a large ridge of high pressure
centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The return flow
behind this high will begin to channel much warmer air north into
our area Wednesday afternoon as the high moves off the coast. Highs
Wednesday afternoon should reach the 40s across the area with a
partly sunny sky. Warmer air will continue channeling north into our
region behind the high Wednesday night into Thursday. However,
moisture circulating into the area behind the high, and ahead of an
approaching cold front, will bring increasing clouds Wednesday night
followed by a mostly cloudy, breezy and warm day on Thursday. Some
showers may begin to stray into the northern part of our area
Thursday night as the cold front approaches. In spite of the clouds,
strong warm advection should allow temperatures to reach the upper
40s to the low 50s over the area Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A small low will track along the approaching cold front Thursday
night lifting to our north and keeping the air very mild over the
region Thursday night. Some rain showers will be likely over the
area Thursday night south of the low. The low will then pull the
cold front through in its wake on Friday as it continues to our
northeast. Showers will be likely with the low followed by some
clearing and a windy afternoon as only moderately cooler air follows
the cold front. An Arctic cold front will then approach Friday night
and cross the area Saturday morning ushering in much colder air upon
strong gusty northwesterly winds on Saturday as temperatures fall
well below freezing. Arctic high pressure building in from central
Canada will bring a continuation of gusty northwesterly winds on
Sunday along with bitter cold air and a partly sunny sky north with
sunshine Downeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 945 PM Update...VFR conditions will cont into the
ovrngt with gradually lowering hi/mid cld deck with light WSW
winds. Arnd daybreak, snow showers are expected to affect msly
Nrn TAF sites. For BGR and BHB, brief MVFR clgs Tuesday morning,
then lifting to VFR for the afternoon. For HUL, CAR, and PQI,
MVFR/IFR clgs/vsby Tuesday morning and into the afternoon due to
mainly morning snow showers and left ovr llvl moisture. For
FVE, All terminals, light W to SW winds thru Tue morning
switching to NW winds in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night: VFR. NW winds.

Wednesday: VFR. S winds.

Wednesday night: VFR, lowering to MVFR from south to north, and
possibly IFR over the north late. SW winds.

Thursday: IFR to MVFR. SW winds.

Thursday night: IFR. SW winds. SW wind shear.

Friday. IFR becoming MVFR Then VFR. Strong gusty SW winds becoming
W.

Friday night: VFR. Gusty W winds.

Saturday: VFR. Strong gusty NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Below SCA criteria expected with waves 1 to 3 ft
through the overnight. Light SW winds tonight as a surface
ridge passes over the region. By Tue, winds will switch to SW in
the afternoon with gusts around 20 kt. Seas around 2 to 4 ft.

SHORT TERM:
Winds may approach SCA in a few gusts Tuesday night then drop
below SCA Wednesday as high pressure slides south of the area.
Winds may reach SCA Wednesday night through Friday in SW winds
behind departing high pressure. A SCA or gale may be needed
over the weekend along with possible freezing spray advisories
as cold Arctic winds return for the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer