Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 312222 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 622 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will track through the SC Lowcountry and GA Coastal Empire into this evening. Dry high pressure will then return into the weekend before a weak front possibly impacts the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Update to cancel the rest of the Tornado Watch. The overall threat for severe storms, especially the potential for tornadoes, is quickly ending. Pockets of heavy rain will impact the Charleston metro area over the next hour or so. Tonight: The deepening surface low will quickly move east of the area this evening. The chance for thunder will end early, but with the influence of the mid/upper level trough overhead, wrap around showers will continue for much of the overnight. Most of this shower activity will impact areas along and north to northeast of the Savannah River. Shower activity should be scattered, and rain chances are held in the 30-50 percent range. Skies will start to at least partially clear from the southwest, but should still be mostly cloudy for most of the night. Much cooler air will steadily filter in through the night, with lows reaching the upper 40s well inland, ranging to the low to mid 50s at the coast. Lake Winds: Northwest winds will strengthen across Lake Moultrie tonight. Frequent wind gusts are expected into the 20-25 knot range, but should mostly stay below 25 knots. No Lake Wind Advisory will be issued at this time, but could be needed later this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence this period with high pressure bringing a return of dry weather and mostly cooler than normal temperatures generally in the 60s/70s during the day and 40s at night. Can`t completely rule out some sheltered inland spots even getting into the upper 30s however Wednesday/Thursday nights. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift east into the Atlantic over the weekend. A weak front could then approach early next week, however it doesn`t appear to really make it into the area. Dry conditions are expected on Saturday, then rain chances will return Sunday and Monday as onshore flow brings moisture back into the area. Forecast maintains 20-30% PoPs. Temperatures will gradually warm through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KSAV: The potential for thunderstorms has passed and its mention has been removed from the TAF. Showers could still impact the terminal, but no significant visibility reductions are expected. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible, mainly late this evening. KCHS: A couple lines of strong showers/thunderstorms will move in around 6 pm. Winds could gust into the 25-30 knot range with a brief shot of heavy rain. This should quickly pass with just showers expected by around 7-8 pm. At both sites: Northwest winds will be gusty at times overnight with MVFR ceilings prevailing at KCHS through much of the late night. Prevailing VFR conditions expected by late Wednesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Low risk for restrictions Saturday night/Sunday due to low clouds/showers. && .MARINE... Tonight: A deepening surface low will quickly push to the east. As it does and the cold front moves offshore, northwest winds will surge quickly across the local waters, especially late tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters, including the Charleston Harbor. The strongest winds are expected across the southern South Carolina waters and the Georgia waters, where frequent gusts to 30 knots are expected. Conditions should stay below gale force, but can`t completely rule out an isolated gust to 35 knots. Seas will increase in response to the strengthening winds, with up to 5 feet out to 20 nm and up to 7 feet in the outer reaches of the outer Georgia waters. Wednesday through Sunday: High confidence this period with high pressure prevailing. The main concern will be the first part of Wednesday which will feature Small Craft Advisory conditions for all waters until strengthening low pressure to the northeast moves far enough away. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tide levels will be rising later this week into next week due to astronomical influences from the upcoming full moon and lunar perigee and also potentially due to meteorological influences from onshore winds. This could lead to minor saltwater inundation around times of the early morning high tides starting next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-374. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION...BSH/RJB MARINE...BSH/RJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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