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000
FXUS64 KCRP 262338
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection over the western brush country this afternoon will
linger into the evening before diminishing. Otherwise VFR
conditions will continue until around daybreak, when MVFR cigs
may briefly form, then mix out by mid-morning. Southeast surface
winds will diminish overnight, then increase again by late
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Low level moisture convergence was making steady headway westward
into the Brush Country this afternoon ahead of a modified sea
breeze and greater stability. This boundary will remain one focus
for scattered showers and storms while farther west conditions
are generally better for storm regeneration from colliding
outflow boundaries. Although a weakening trough around 700 mb
will linger near our western counties tonight, the potential for
additional precipitation after midnight appears too low at this
time. Thursday will see a slight warming of temperatures aloft
which should keep storm coverage lower than the past few days,
but model soundings still indicate negligible inhibition in some
areas especially along the sea breeze. Some HREF members are more
bullish with scattered storms along a NE-SW band of mid-level
moisture stalled across our western and northern counties, so PoPs
were expanded slightly westward for this signal.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Deep ridging will dominate the weather pattern into Saturday with
a relatively dry airmass in place. Rain chances will be low and
mainly confined to the normal diurnal pattern of morning streamers
and afternoon seabreeze storms over the east. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal levels...in other words continued hot and
humid. Pattern change then begins Sunday and continues into the
middle of next week. Very good agreement between the Euro and GFS
yields fairly high confidence in a scenario where an upper low
will retrograde from the northern Gulf Coast southwest into Texas
on Sunday then slow or stall somewhere to our west. Initial
increased rain chances on Sunday associated with the upper low but
better rain chances hold off until Tue/Wed as deep tropical
moisture (PWAT 2.4 inches from the deterministic GFS) streams into
the area on the east side of the upper low. Likely PoPs are
warranted over the eastern half of the area Tuesday with at least
chance elsewhere. Magnitude of moisture suggests localized heavy
rain threat also exists. Temperatures will be held down by
increased cloud and rain with afternoon readings a few degrees
below seasonal norms.

MARINE...
Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to persist through
the weekend. Following isolated showers and some storms this
afternoon, drier conditions will develop tomorrow and continue
through Friday before isolated showers and storms return on
Saturday. Rain chances will begin to increase on Sunday into
early next week as an upper level low pressure system moves
across.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  92  75  91  74  /  10  20  10  10  10
Victoria          75  92  73  93  71  /  10  20  10  10  20
Laredo            76  98  75  96  74  /  20  10   0   0  10
Alice             75  94  73  94  72  /  10  20   0  10  10
Rockport          79  88  79  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           75  96  73  96  72  /  20  20   0  10  10
Kingsville        76  93  75  93  73  /  10  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       80  88  80  88  79  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION