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822
FXUS64 KCRP 240134
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
834 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet night on tap for S TX with mild temps and drier conditions.
The 00Z CRP sounding showed a 1.7 inch PWAT, down from 2.3 the
previous 24 hrs. Overall, forecast looks on track with no changes
at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cloud deck
over the Hill Country/S Central TX, is forecast to maintain a bkn
deck over VCT, but above 3kft. Clouds across the remainder of S
TX are expected to remain sct. There is a remote possibility of
patchy light fog developing toward early Mon morning (mainly ALI)
due to light/vrb winds, drier conditions aloft and saturated
soil. However, the possibility is very low thus will not mention
in the TAFs at this time. If patchy light fog did develop, it
would be brief with minimal aviation impacts.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

Frontal boundary remains located offshore this afternoon, leaving
quiet weather in its wake. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with
temperatures in the 80s across all of South Texas.

Tranquil weather is in store tonight with light and variable
winds. Lows will range from the upper 60s across the far western
parts of the area to middle 70s along the Coastal Bend and upper
70s on the islands.

Upper level disturbance begins to push off to the northeast on
Monday. This could yield a few showers across the Victoria
Crossroads and will keep 20 pops in the forecast. Most locations
will likely remain dry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Deeper moisture lurking offshore will begin to approach the coast
Monday night as southerly flow resumes. Convection will likely
develop over the Gulf Waters overnight and move inland during the
morning hours.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

Return flow is in full force by Tuesday, with deep moisture building
across the Coastal Bend. Upper support remains much better north of
the forecast area, but deep moisture with neutral to slightly
positive support will trigger scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the region. Models try to move a weak surface
boundary or wind shift line through early Thursday, and that marks a
point of departure for the models. ECMWF continues deep moisture and
lift from there on into next week, with considerable rainfall
amounts each day, while GFS removes support and tries to build weak
ridging back into south Texas, tapering off rainfall heading into
the weekend. Will trend closer to more reasonable GFS solution
with this package.

High temperatures will be near normal through the period, with low
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  90  76  89  76  /  10  10  20  20  30
Victoria          71  89  73  90  74  /  10  20  20  30  40
Laredo            71  93  75  95  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             72  92  74  92  74  /   0  10  10  20  10
Rockport          76  88  78  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  50
Cotulla           69  91  72  93  74  /   0   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        73  92  75  91  76  /   0  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       78  88  79  90  80  /  10  10  30  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM