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000
FXUS63 KDDC 032257
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Gusty winds will decrease early this evening as a ridge of high
pressure at the surface builds into western Kansas. Light winds
can then be expected during the overnight hours with surface dew
points overnight ranging from 15 to 20 degrees. These conditions
would set the stage for temperatures overnight to fall back into
the teens for many locations...however given an increase in clouds
late tonight the low temperatures early Saturday morning is
expected to be in the 20s.

Morning clouds will give way to a most sunny afternoon. The cold
dome of high pressure will slide east of the area and warmer
temperatures will start to return. Based on the warming trend
forecast at the 850mb level from 00z Saturday to 00z Sunday the
highs Saturday will climb back into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

On Sunday a westerly downslope flow across the Rockies will
gradually give way to a southwesterly flow early next week as an
upper low drops south along the coast of California. This pattern
continues to support unseasonably warm temperatures returning to
western Kansas late this weekend through the first half of the
upcoming work week. Models continue to agree with 80 degree highs
being possible Monday and Tuesday. Along with the warm air there
will also be an increase in fire risk levels given the breezy and
dry conditions. Elevated to near critical fire weather risk levels
will be possible for much of southwest Kansas during the first
half of next week.

Mid week a weak cold front will try to drop south into western
Kansas as a northern branch upper level trough crosses the
northern Plains. This will put on the breaks to the warming trend
but temperatures mid week still will be in the 70s.

Confidence late week on temperatures and precipitation chances
are not high at this time given that the GFS and ECMWF differ on
track and timing of the upper low crossing the southwest United
States. Both solutions do support improving chances for
thunderstorms late week but location of the surface cold front is
unclear. As a result will not stray far from guidance on
temperatures late week although the ECMWF does support highs 10 to
20 degrees warmer than the current forecast given the further
north solution of the cold front. This further north solution
would also support a better opportunity for strong to severe
thunderstorms across southwest Kansas Thursday and/or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Saturday afternoon. Light northeast winds will persist this
evening, then become more easterly overnight as surface high pressure
shifts southeast out of the Northern Plains into central/eastern
Kansas. Light winds are then expected to become more southeasterly
through Saturday afternoon as the surface high begins to shift
eastward out of eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  55  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  24  56  33  70 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  27  62  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  27  59  34  73 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  23  53  32  66 /   0  10   0   0
P28  28  55  36  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson