


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
909 FXUS63 KDDC 180450 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool stable air has reduced the risk of severe thunderstorms tonight. - Scattered thunderstorms tonight will produce locally heavy rainfall, with flooding potential where soils are saturated. Marginally severe hail is possible. - A rapid intense heatwave is expected late this week, with afternoon temperatures near 100 degrees Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 19z surface and upper air observations show cool upslope east to southeast winds across southwest Kansas. These winds combining with a stratus deck from the overnight and mid morning MCS that went through central Kansas have kept our temperatures in the 70s through midday. The morning outflow boundary has made it well into the Texas panhandle through northern Oklahoma. A second outflow boundary has led to convection along the K-96 corridor which is moving east-southeast. Tonight given the situation from the previous MCS and ongoing cloud cover and convection combining with short term models showing the boundary of warmer air staying mainly along and south of the Oklahoma border the severe risk has lessened across southwest Kansas. With the cooler and stable air the instability values will have a tough time increasing and any convection will be elevated pretty much negating any tornado risk. Short term models continue to show the best opportunity for rain along the second outflow boundary which sets up roughly south and east of Dodge City. With PWAT values ~1.5 inches we could certainly see some locally heavy rainfall and some isolated areas of flooding. Severe threat will be generally limited to some strong gusty winds around 60 mph mainly along the Oklahoma border. With how the airmasses are setup it looks like the MCS with the 80+ mph wind potential will be moreso in the Texas panhandle into northern Oklahoma along the frontal boundary. A second area of convection will develop in northeast Colorado and makes its way into western Kansas during the overnight however as the MCS hits the more stable air we should just see general thunderstorms with them weakening to ending shortly after midnight. Wednesday should stay cooler as north winds and 850 mb temperatures warming to around 20 (C) should lead to highs in the 80s. In the long term LREF upper air patterns show a building ridge in the southeast CONUS with strong southwesterly flow in the central plains. This will allow hotter air from the desert southwest to overspread the region on Friday and Saturday with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Given the recent rains we should still have fairly moist dewpoints despite the southwest winds so humidity values will be higher and could lead to heat index values greater than 100 degrees especially east of highway 183. Heat risk across southwest Kansas is at moderate to major suggesting that any prolonged exposure to the heat will lead to a higher risk of heat exhaustion. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 VFR conditons will prevail through the TAF period. The weather will feature mostly clear skies and light north winds that transition to light and variable at 0z and turn clockwise. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ066-079>081-089- 090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...KBJ