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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250536
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Over the next 5 days, two upper level systems and an arctic high
pressure system will be the major players in our forecast. One
shortwave trough was located west of San Diego over the Pacific
and a major upper level trough was digging southward into the
northern Rockies, accompanied by arctic high pressure being
dislodged from the Canada. The major trough will amplify over the
Rockies in positively tilted fashion and this will allow for a
strong surge of arctic air in in the lee of the Rockies. Sunday
and Monday, the minor trough will becomes embedded in the major
trough and eject rapidly to the east and northeast across the
central plains. The major trough will eventually become neutrally
titled and develop into a closed low over the southern plains by
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will develop ahead of
the minor trough Sunday. Early in the event the moist layer will
be low in the troposphere so that any precip will be in the form
of drizzle. Exact temperatures will determine if this is plain
drizzle or freezing drizzle. The NAM was the coldest model and
even it has a dry adiabatic profile from the surface to 2500ft
AGL, which is suspect given the NNE flow and cold advection along
with abundant cloud cover. The other models such as the RAP/HRRR
and GFS were much too warm. We opted to go with the colder
solution and even shaved a few degrees off of this. The precip
will change over to snow from north to south Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible by
Monday evening. Temperatures won`t make it above the lower to mid
20s Monday and some locations could stay in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

If the ECMWF comes close to verifying, then central and western
Kansas would see lots of precipitation and possibly in all forms
as the event unfolds. As we often see with the track of upper
level lows, precipitation amounts are very sensitive to the
details of the upper system. If the system is more progressive or
farther south then much less precipitation would be expected. At
the beginning of the precip Tuesday night and early Wednesday,
cold air will still be entrenched over the area so that sleet and
freezing rain are possible. Later in the event rain can be
expected and then towards the end there could be a changeover to
snow before the precip ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Ceilings will drop to IFR conditions this morning as a thick deck
of stratus and drizzle develops behind a cold front. Easterly
winds will shift to the northeast by sunrise and increase in speed
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  34  18  21 /  10  50  80  60
GCK  31  34  16  21 /  10  50  80  50
EHA  31  35  16  22 /  10  40  80  60
LBL  32  36  17  22 /  10  40  80  50
HYS  32  35  18  23 /  10  60  80  60
P28  36  39  24  27 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42