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000
FXUS63 KDDC 070509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1109 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Models were in good agreement today with a high probability of
temperatures climbing into the 70s for most locations across
southwest Kansas on Sunday based on the westerly downslope flow
and forecast warming trend in the 850mb temperatures from 00z
Sunday to 00z each Monday. Will therefore continue to follow the
previous forecast with a warmer than guidance on temperatures
Sunday afternoon. The previous forecast temperatures was very
close to the latest 75 percentile on max temperatures which
frequently does a better job with highs given the downslope flow
scenario. Also given these warm and dry conditions it appears
that Sunday will also be another day with near critical fire
weather conditions. Afternoon dew points do not appear to be as
low as what is currently expected later this Saturday afternoon
but given the warmup expected relative humidity values in the 15
to near 20 degree range still looks likely west of highway 83.

Low temperatures both tonight and Sunday night are expected to be
mainly in the 30s given the low level temperature and wind
profiles from the latest BUFR soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Warm and dry conditions will continue through mid week based on
the ongoing warming trend forecast in the 850mb to 800mb level
each day between 00z and 00z. NBM guidance continues to
underestimate the influence of the downslope flow so will favor
the warmer guidance and at the 75 percentile on max temperatures
currently forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Trending this way this
would result in highs climbing into the 80s on Tuesday and just
before the next cold frontal passage mid week. Exact timing and
location still somewhat unclear but it currently appears that all
the models place this surface boundary south of Dodge City and
near the Oklahoma border by 00z Thursday. Near and south of this
frontal boundary it will be another warm day with highs around 80
degrees. South of this front temperatures will average around 10
degrees cooler.

Not only will the location of this front impact how warm
temperatures will be Wednesday but also it will determine where
any late day convection may develop Wednesday evening as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Although confidence is
fairly high that the potential does exist for scattered
convection near this boundary late Wednesday given the 0-6km
shear, mid level instability and 0-1km moisture
convergence...location of where this boundary will be late day
keeps confidence on evening convection across portions of south
central Kansas (Pratt and Medicine Lodge area) low. Given the low
confidence on the location of this boundary Wednesday evening will
stay close to the latest guidance for precipitation chances.

Monday and Tuesday the main concern will center around the chance
for critical fire weather conditions. The potential exists each
day for critical fire weather conditions but it currently appears
the most favorable day will be Tuesday afternoon given how far
east the dry air will push into southwest Kansas and the deeper
mixing potential for gusty afternoon winds. SPC 3-8 day fire
outlooks also appears to be picking up on this given it placed
southwest Kansas in a 40 percent chance on Tuesday.

The last half of the work week will be cooler compared to the
first part of the week given the forecast location of the surface
boundary over Texas and southern Oklahoma and as a cool dome of
high pressure builds into the Central Plains. Also cloud cover and
possible precipitation may also become an issue late week but
given that the latest models are currently struggling with the
track and timing of the next upper low that will move from
southern California towards the Central Plains late week it is
currently is unclear just how much cloud cover or precipitation
will occur far enough north of the cold front to impact southwest
Kansas Thursday and Friday. At this time given low confidence that
far out will stay close to the previous forecast/latest guidance
but there are hints from the ECMWF and even the GEFS ensembles
that the upper low will be slower and as a result the better
chances cloudy skies and precipitation will be next weekend not
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

A strong low level jet at the onset of this TAF period will result
in at least some marginal Low Level Wind Shear conditions in the
lowest 2000 feet. Surface winds will increase once again by late
morning to the 20 to 25 knot range sustained. Gusts from late
morning through late afternoon will be 30 to 35 knots at times.
Given the ongoing dry low level atmosphere, flight category will
remain VFR through this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Fire weather risk will be on the increase over the next several
days. Southwesterly winds will range from 15 to 30 mph each day
from Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday the lowest humidity values
currently appears to be located west of highway 83, mainly near
the Colorado border, but wind speeds in this area during the
afternoon will be weaker compared to the winds further east. On
Monday the winds are expected to be stronger, however the relative
humidity values will also be higher. This will still favor near
critical fire weather conditions west of Garden City to Liberal
line. On Tuesday the surface boundary is forecast to push as far
east as Dodge City, Ashland and possibly even the Hays area and
given the mixing potential behind this boundary the humidity
values may fall back to around 10 percent. This combined with the
gusty winds possible in the afternoon will result in more
favorable conditions for critical or near critical fire weather
conditions. SPC fire outlook for days 3-8 also highlights Tuesday
as the most favorable time for critical fire conditions.

Although Tuesday currently appears to be the best day for
critical fire weather conditions across southwest Kansas, areas
west of highway 83 will come very close to critical conditions
Sunday and again on Monday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  69  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  38  70  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  39  70  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  68  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  41  75  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  69  39  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert