Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Radar shows widespread light rain continuing across the southeast
zones as of midday, with areas of less organized light rain
elsewhere. Rain will continue to decrease in coverage through this
afternoon, as dynamic lift wanes in the wake of the departing
shortwave. Stratus ceilings will rise some this afternoon, but
with few if any breaks expected, and moist northeast/east upslope
in the boundary layer continuing, temperatures will struggle.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will average around
20 degrees below normal. The record low max for Dodge City for
May 10th is 52/1979.

Rain will redevelop tonight in response to strong lift ahead of
the next incoming shortwave. QPF of 0.25-0.50 inch will be common
tonight, particularly along and north of US 50, where models agree
forcing will be most focused. Instability is virtually
nonexistent, with CAPE < 200 J/kg, so removed thunder from the
grids. Kept all precipitation as rain, although some wet snow may
mix in at times across the highest terrain of NW Hamilton county.
Sunrise temperatures Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s NW to the
upper 40s SE.

Another unseasonably cold cloudy day Tuesday. If anything, models
project the atmosphere will be a little colder Tuesday versus
Monday, with 850 mb temperatures of only 1-2C and lower
thicknesses. Again on Tuesday, widespread rain in the morning will
decrease in coverage through the afternoon, allowing temperatures
to move a few degrees, but again they will struggle. Models
project stratus all day, with saturation at 850 mb and continued
cool/moist easterly upslope flow. Afternoon temperatures will
range from upper 40s west to the lower 50s east, 25-30 degrees
below normal! The record low max at Dodge City for May 11th is 47,
set last year in 2020. We should do better than that, but it will
be close.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The unseasonably cool air will erode quickly in the strong May
sun, and a rapid warming trend in both max/min temperatures is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Although NBM hangs onto some low pops Wednesday, believe dry
weather will return as 12z ECMWF depicts. Unseasonably cool
surface high pressure ridge will stubbornly remain over Kansas for
one more day, and with residual clouds and easterly upslope
surface wind components, afternoon temperatures will remain way
below normal, mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

South winds return Thursday along with more plentiful sun, with
dry NWly flow aloft. All zones will be dry, with afternoon
temperatures bouncing back to the upper 60s and lower 70s (still
below normal).

Models show strong warming Friday, with afternoon temperatures
returning to normal, in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Moisture
advection on the southerly winds will pull 50s dewpoints back into
SW KS by Friday, and the dryline will reestablish. Chance pops for
convection favoring the eastern zones from the NBM were accepted.

Afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably warm over the
weekend, in the lower to mid 80s, with a chance of late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms daily. NBM pops were accepted.
12z ECMWF keeps its closed cyclone over California over the
upcoming weekend, with upper forcing over the plains rather
nebulous or ill-defined with broad ridging and weak embedded
shortwaves. The dryline will be there as a focusing mechanism,
and it`s the time of year in which it doesn`t take much to get
storms going. ECMWF solutions in particular favor a convectively
active weekend.

Early next week looks seasonably convectively active, as the SW US
cutoff low drifts out onto the plains. The cyclone doesn`t look
overly strong, but moisture will be available and severe weather
potential is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

MVFR conditions are expected throughout the day as low clouds
remain abundant with periods of rain showers. Winds will generally
be form an eastery direction through tonight.


DDC  42  50  39  58 /  80  80  30  20
GCK  39  47  37  56 / 100  90  40  20
EHA  40  47  39  57 /  80  70  40  20
LBL  40  48  39  57 /  60  70  30  20
HYS  42  53  39  59 /  90  90  40  30
P28  45  55  43  61 /  50  50  20  20




LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.