Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232304
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Another quiet night is in store for central/southwest Kansas. An
upper level trough over the northern Rockies will continue heading
east toward the northern Plains tonight and Monday. Southerly low
level flow ahead of this trough will continue tonight over western
Kansas. Low temperatures tonight should be several degrees warmer
than last night but should still be able to drop into the lower
50s given the dry airmass over western portions of the area.
Farther east, low level moisture streaming north out of the
southern Plains resulted in areas of dense fog early this morning.
Model soundings show the moist layer remaining fairly shallow
along with stronger winds at the top of the boundary layer
tonight. This may keep dense fog from forming again tonight with
more of a stratus type situation. There may be some patchy fog
over parts of south central Kansas early Monday.

A weak disturbance in the trough forces a weak cold front down
into far western Kansas on Monday. This may keep high temperatures
down a few degrees over the western counties and have adjusted
accordingly.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

As the upper trough continues east, it will force a stronger cold
front south through western and central Kansas late Monday night
and Tuesday. The extended init continues to carry chance pops for
light precipitation over the northern and eastern half of the
forecast area during the day. A few showers will be possible but
there could also be a period of drizzle in the deeper moist layer
and cold advection behind the front. Skies become clear to partly
cloudy especially over much of the forecast area. Temperatures
should fall into the mid 40s along I-70 with upper 40s and 50s
farther south. A few showers could linger into the night along and
north of the Oklahoma border.

The weather will quiet down but it will continue a little on the
cool side with highs in the 60s and 70s through mid week. Friday
looks a little more uncertain. The upper flow over much of the
U.S. becomes more zonal but at the same time, a sharp upper ridge
develops over Alaska and the northeast Pacific with meridional
flow extending from the Arctic into western Canada. This pattern
is conducive to having arctic airmasses plunging southward into
the central Plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this but the GFS
keeps the front farther north across northern Nebraska by Friday
evening whereas the ECMWF has the front down through western
Kansas. The ECMWF may be the correct model and if so, highs on
Friday will may only be in the 50s along I-70 with 60s to low 70s
farther south instead of the 80s/low 90s the GFS shows. Current
forecast will show highs in the 70s but this could trend downward
during the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Current VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period for
all locations. Patchy fog will advect into the vicinity of DDC
with mist and 5SM visibility expected between 08-14Z with the more
dense fog across south central Kansas to the southeast. Strong
south winds with gusts up to 25kts currently due to a strong
pressure gradient and a leeside trough over eastern Colorado
coupled with the daytime heating. After 02Z, these winds will
diminish as the aforementioned lee side trough fills over night
and a temperature inversion sets up at the surface due to
nighttime cooling. These winds will pick back up after 14Z as
winds mix to the surface due to daytime heating eroding the
temperature inversion. Clear skies over night with a few high
clouds during the daylight hours minus some lower stratus for DDC
due to the aforementioned patchy fog to the southeast. These will
quickly dissipate and burn off once the winds mix to the surface
after 14Z. No other weather elements are forecasted during the
rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  83  57  71 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  53  82  56  70 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  55  88  56  71 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  52  89  56  71 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  55  81  57  70 /   0   0  20  30
P28  57  82  61  76 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Lowe



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