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000
FXUS63 KDDC 241014
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

The upper level pattern during the short term forecast will consist
of an upper level low spinning over the Northern Plains slowly
sliding eastward with an upper level ridge building over the
Rockies. A weak shortwave will across the KS/OK border this morning.
This short wave will bring an increase in mid level cloudiness to
western Kansas this morning with a slight chance of light rain
showers along the KS/OK border. Cloudiness should decrease by this
afternoon with mostly clear skies expected this afternoon through
the remainder of the short term forecast. Towards the surface, the
center of high pressure will move through western Kansas today
leading to light and variable winds. Winds continue to be light
through tomorrow but from a southwest to westerly direction as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures,
highs today look to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows
tonight are expected to range from around 50 degrees across west
central Kansas to mid 50s across south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are progged to reach into the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Upper level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies as we
head into the first part of the week with the upper level low moving
into the eastern United States. This should suppress any activity
from forming across western Kansas with no precipitation expected.
Lee troughing will be found across eastern Colorado and intensify as
we head through the early part of the week.  This is due to the next
upper level long wave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level ridging then shifts east over the Plains as we head into
the mid to late part of next week with the long wave trough digging
into the western United States. Ensemble models hint at a few weak
disturbances moving through the southwest flow late week which may
increase precipitation chances across western Kansas.  But being
that far out, additional model runs will need to be watched to see
if this comes to fruition. Temperatures during the long term
forecast should reach into the mid to upper 80s early this week,
reaching into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees mid to late week.
The probability of exceeding 90 degrees does increase as we head
into the mid to late part of the week. Lows will start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday morning with an increase into the upper 50s to low
60s by mid to late part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through today with mid level clouds
this morning along the KS/OK border becoming mostly clear by this
afternoon. Winds will generally be light and from a northerly
direction throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  54  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  80  51  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  81  51  85  58 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  81  51  85  56 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  83  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  84  56  87  58 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42