974
FXUS63 KDDC 220402
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms across
  west central Kansas.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across much of
  southwest Kansas this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 7 PM, thunderstorms were beginning to spread into west
central Kansas. Mesoanalysis from the SPC indicated surface to
925 mb frontogenesis improving along an outflow boundary
extending from extreme northwest Hamilton County to western
Wichita County.

North of this boundary, gusty northwest winds were developing,
with the latest observation from Holly reporting wind gusts of
42 mph. Several CAMs indicated a brief period of isolated wind
gusts of near 50 mph and small hail being possible behind this
boundary as it moves west and north of Garden City through 9 PM.
The isolated wind gusts near 50 mph currently appears to be a
reasonable solution given the 8-12 degree drop in surface
temperatures over the past three hours. This evening, the
primary hazard will be gusty winds and small hail, as the storms
weaken while moving east into a more stable air mass over the
next few hours.


A second round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated
around midnight as 850-700 mb frontogenesis improves ahead of an
upper level trough as it crosses eastern Colorado. This second
round is expected to bring more widespread precipitation as it
moves through west central and north central Kansas during the
pre-dawn hours. Isolated wind gusts and lightning will also be
possible, though wind gusts are not expected to be as strong as
those occurring before sunset. Rainfall may be more widespread
but it will also be light with a 20-50% chance for rainfall
totals to be >0.10". Based on the latest CAMs, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms overnight will be increased across
west central and north central Kansas. Temperatures are expected
to fall back into the 40s to lower 50s, but will trend towards a quicker
drop in temperatures through midnight as the outflow passes
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting
northeast into the Upper Midwest ahead of a broader scale trough
transitioning east through the Central Rockies. Near the surface, a
cold front is pushing southeast into northern Oklahoma.

There is a 20-30% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across
west central Kansas early in the period as the SREF shows an upper
level shortwave trough pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into
the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening.
Although instability will be limited as northerlies continue to funnel
in drier air into the region, CAMs do suggest shower/thunderstorm
development early this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject
east out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with H7 frontogenetic
banding developing in wake of the cold front pushing southward into
the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest HREF indicates
a very minimal 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an
inch across west central Kansas and a small portion of southwest
Kansas near the Colorado border by early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures are forecast to be a little below seasonal tonight as
surface high pressure moving in from the west helps reinforce a cooler
air mass across the region. The HREF paints a 60-70% probability of
lows dropping below 50F in west central Kansas to only a 30-40%
probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas.
Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with a cooler air
mass slow to erode across western Kansas due to a slowly departing
surface high to the east, returning south-southeasterlies mid/late
afternoon. The HREF indicates an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding
70F in west central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding
75F in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The next reasonable chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms will be late
Thursday/early Friday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper
level trough swinging eastward through the Northern Rockies Thursday,
and farther into the Northern Plains Thursday night, setting up an
increasingly difluent west-southwest flow aloft across the Western
High Plains. In response to the approaching system, surface low
pressure is projected to develop/deepen in eastern Colorado Thursday
afternoon with an attendant sharpening dryline extending south into
the Texas Panhandle, then advancing eastward Thursday evening. Ample
moisture return ahead of the advancing dryline, and subsequent cold
front from the northwest, will help push surface dewpoints up into
the 60s(F), increasing instability. Although timing/track remain
uncertain, thunderstorm development is expected late afternoon/evening
as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting
with the aforementioned dryline/front. The best chance for storms
will be across central/south central Kansas where the NBM paints
a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early
Friday morning. Much drier air filling in behind the advancing
dryline will keep much of southwest Kansas dry. Spotty precip
chances (20%) may linger into Saturday/Sunday as a relatively
weak upper level perturbation quickly moves through the Western
High Plains within a fairly zonal flow aloft.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Thursday as prevailing
southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing
H85 temperatures well up into the mid/upper 20s(C) by late afternoon.
The NBM shows an 80% probability of of highs exceeding 80F in central
and south central Kansas with an 80% probability of highs climbing
above 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite
as warm Friday in wake of the cold frontal passage, but temperatures
should rebound a little Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR expected through TAF pd. Some -shra and perhaps isolated tsra
through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and variable underneath
a high pressure center.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden