Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Strong S/SW winds will impact SW KS through this afternoon, with
gusts to the 40-45 mph range. A strong shortwave was over western
Wyoming at midday, complete with morning forced convection in
southern Wyoming via the lightning detection network. This system
is dynamically impressive and will rotate in a negatively tilted
fashion into western South Dakota this evening. This will all
enhance pressure gradients through this evening, with MOS guidance
now up to 29 mph sustained for several hours. Gusts to near 45 mph
are expected through sunset, with more persistent, well above
normal temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. 12z NAM, the latest
HRRR iterations and a few other CAMs suggest isolated thunderstorm
development is possible along/west of US 83 this evening. Included
20% pops for this potential, but coverage will be sparse, and
wouldn`t be surprised if nothing develops at all. That said, a hot
well-mixed windy boundary layer will support downburst potential
from any high-based storms that develop.

Another unsesonably warm night tonight, with sunrise temperatures
in the 60s west, to lower 70s east. South winds will remain
elevated at 15-25 mph well into the night, courtesy of another low
level jet.

A break from the Kansas wind machine is expected Wednesday. The
shortwave to our north will be out of the picture, but more
importantly, a weak surface trough of low pressure will bisect
SW KS as a weak surface high pressure ridge noses into Nebraska
and NW KS. This setup will reduce the winds substantially, still
south at 15-25 mph south of the trough, but probably going light
and variable (at times NEly) near and north of the boundary. Winds
will likely be the lightest across the western/NW zones. Model
consensus places the boundary near a Wakeeney-Garden City-Liberal
line at midday. Given convergence along the boundary, long range
HRRR and 12z NAM hint at isolated thunderstorm development. Again,
coverage will be sparse, but will necessitate at least minimal
pops. Another hot afternoon in the mid 90s will both encourage
updrafts and downbursts from any high convective cloud bases.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Hot and dry trend continues to start the long term forecast for
Wednesday with high temperatures pushing into the mid 90s looking
to be the hottest day of the week. South winds will turn to have a
more easterly component and only be 10-20 mph compared to the
recent strong gusts to start the week. This is due to the surface
high pressure pushing further east as the upper level ridge to the
north breaks down and shifts eastward weakening the pressure
gradient across the CWA. A long wave trough looks to push out of
the Pacific northwest deepening with its slow eastward progression
due to increased divergence aloft and stronger cold air advection.
The polar front jet max will dig into the base of the trough with
associated shortwaves to give increased precipitation chances for
the end of the work week and into the weekend.

Not as hot but still above average for this time of year for
Thursday and Friday with morning lows still in the 60s and
afternoon highs into the upper 80s near 90. The southeasterly low
level flow will bring an abundant of gulf moisture to create
decent instability giving thunderstorm chances for both evenings
with severe weather not out of the question due to increased CAPE
and still warm afternoon temperatures. Confidence is low for
severe weather at this time but will be monitored over the coming
days as the weather pattern changes to end the week.

Heading into the weekend, a cold front will drop through the high
plains over Friday night into Saturday with rain showers and
isolated general thunderstorms expected throughout the day and
overnight into Sunday morning. As of now, models indicate the
eastern half of the CWA to be the most effected with QPF outputs
being in upwards of 1-2 inches east of Hwy 283 and especially into
south central Kansas east of Hwy 281. Winds will shift out of the
north and bring in more seasonable temperatures for this time of
year and for the autumn season with morning lows down into the 50s
and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

A dryer weather pattern looks to ensue with a building ridge over
the Rockies pushes the aforementioned longwave trough into the
Great Lake region allowing for northwest flow aloft across western
Kansas. Seasonable temperatures will ensue into the start of the
new work week with morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in
the low 80s. Long term models indicate this trend to continue
through the week with dry weather and seasonable temperatures for
the start of fall and ending the month of September.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Strong south winds will again impact aviation operations through
the midday and afternoon hours, with gusts to near 35 kts
expected. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near/west of a
GCK-LBL line this evening, as suggested by 12z NAM and HRRR.
Included a VCTS/CB mention in the GCK/LBL TAFs during the 00-03z
Wed time frame. Another round of low level wind shear and another
low level jet is expected after 03z Wed. VFR will continue this
TAF cycle, with varying amounts of cirrus and afternoon cumulus.
A surface trough of low pressure will bisect the SW KS terminals
on Wednesday, allowing for much less wind, perhaps reduced to
light and variable at times.


DDC  95  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  95  65  95  66 /  20  20   0  10
EHA  93  62  91  63 /  20  20   0  10
LBL  95  67  95  66 /  20  20   0  10
HYS  94  71  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
P28  94  70  95  69 /   0   0  10  10




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