Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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993
FXUS63 KDDC 240700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

...Updated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday evening)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Lingering low clouds across eastern counties associated with a
shortwave trough pushing across the eastern half of the state
through sunrise keeping overnight lows in this area higher in the
upper 20s. Areas west to the Colorado state line will see
temperatures closer to the 20 degree mark under clear skies as
high pressure builds into the high plains out of Colorado. Light
northwesterly winds will prevail for the entirety of the short
term due to the weakened pressure gradient and high centered to
the northwest. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid
40s to the mid 50s northeast to southwest with colder air seeping
into the central and north central portions of Kansas keeping
areas along the I-70 corridor cooler. Clear skies will allow for
another cold night heading into the weekend overnight Friday
dropping into the low 20s with a continued dry and warming trend
through the weekend and into early next week before changes come
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Quiet weather pattern to start the long term over the weekend into
early next week with upper level ridging set in place across the
Rockies giving way to northwest flow aloft over the high plains.
Surface high pressure will extend over western Kansas allowing for
winds to be on the lighter side and temperatures to warm above
average for this time of year. Expect morning lows to be mainly in
the mid to upper 20s and afternoon highs in the 50s and even
pushing the 60 degree mark on Sunday due to a more downsloping
breeze out of the southwest with the movement of the
aforementioned high pressure center to the east. Mainly clear
skies will prevail with the exception of a few high clouds on
Saturday due to a passing shortwave south of the CWA across north
Texas and parts of Oklahoma.

Changes come late on Monday as the aforementioned upper level
ridge breaks down to increased divergence aloft allowing for a
stronger upper level low to push across the western United States.
Rain and snow mix is expected for this next disturbance Monday
night into most of Tuesday producing at least 30 pops across much
of the CWA being a more southwesterly event. The uncertainty comes
with the amount of any snowfall and exactly where the highest
accumulations are expected to be with not much model consistency
at this point this far out. Stay tuned for updates on this event
over the weekend as the time comes closer, but decent
precipitation chances are expected across southwest Kansas to
continue to help alleviate the drought conditions across much of
the area.

Temperature wise, a slight cool down is expected with morning lows
still in the 20s and afternoon highs back down into the 40s and
near the 50 degree mark, all of which is closer to average for
this time of year. Expect this trend to continue through the rest
of the work week and long term forecast with at or just above
average temperatures and dry conditions heading into the next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

MVFR ceilings across HYS associated with the short wave trough
pushing across north central into eastern Kansas. VFR ceilings at
all other locations for the entirety of the period. Low stratus
will exit the HYS area by sunrise around 14Z with clear skies
through the end of the period as high pressure builds into the
CWA. Weak northwest winds less than 10kts due to a weak pressure
gradient and aforementioned high pressure with no other elements
expected for this period and beyond.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  51  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  22  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  54  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  43  22  46 /  10   0   0   0
P28  27  46  25  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe



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