Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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282
FXUS63 KDDC 222333
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible early this
  evening, then dry weather is forecast for the next week.

- Hot conditions will return this week, with highs in the mid
  90s by late week and upper 90s to near 100 by Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

The mid to upper level cold pool helping to initiate
thunderstorms this afternoon will exit the area by Tuesday.
Upper level ridging will develop over the high plains by mid-
week and strengthen through the weekend. The main upper level
jet will shift well north of Kansas. 500mb temperatures are
predicted to warm from -10C today to -7 by late week to -4C by
the weekend and moisture will be diluted in the vertical given
deep mixing. Therefore, instability will be minimal and
precipitation is not expected through early next week. Ensemble
daily mean precipitation is only a few hundredths or less,
indicating a very dry pattern. That said, the ensemble means
are also showing a weak upper level trough forming just south of
the upper level ridge axis over Texas this weekend. This could
result in thunderstorm formation, but likely well to the south
of here. Ensemble means (ECMWF/GEFS and CMCE) show near zero
probability of any 24-hr precipitation greater than .5" through
mid next week. The various ensemble means indicate 850mb
temperatures along the 100th meridian (~2500 ft ASL) from
24-26C Thursday through Saturday and then increasing to the
27-29C range by Sunday and into early next week. This suggests
that afternoon highs will rise from the mid 90s late week to the
upper 90s by Sunday and near 100 and possibly even a little
higher for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms continued to push south and
southeast and have cleared GCK and HYS terminals. The strongest
storms passed by DDC and LBL as well with only VCSH remaining.
After these storms completely clear the region, the remainder of
the TAF period will be quiet with light and variable winds and
widespread VFR flight category through the remainder of tonight
into Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid