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000
FXUS63 KDDC 170935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday and Wednesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Radar and satellite imagery at midnight revealed a decaying
thunderstorm complex over the southwest zones. Even while
reflectivity has been waning, numerous severe caliber wind gusts
have been reported as the storms collapse. The highest gust was
reported at Elkhart with 64 mph. Expect showers and thunderstorms
with strong downburst wind/blowing dust potential to progress
eastward adjacent to Oklahoma through the night. Cirrus anvil
debris and light southeast winds will continue elsewhere.

Tuesday is expected to be several degrees hotter and more humid,
resulting in much higher instability building through the
afternoon hours. Models continue to warm 850 mb temperatures with
a net increase of about +6C over Monday, supporting the forecast
of lower to mid 90s, with the hottest temperatures adjacent to
Oklahoma (98-100). Bouyancy will be much improved Tuesday
afternoon, with 00z NAM increasing MU CAPE to 3-4k J/kg across the
central and eastern zones by 4 pm. The question is one of a
convective triggering mechanism, and during the daytime hours, few
if any are apparent. As such, the forecast is dry or has very low
pops through 7 pm. After 7 pm through Tuesday evening, convective
potential will increase, especially northeast of Dodge City, as a
cold front arrives and interacts with the instability. 00z GFS
forecasts a very warm +14C at 700 mb at DDC at the time of frontal
passage this evening, so the most likely scenario is the cap will
squash most updraft attempts and most locations will remain dry.
Given the high instability and sufficient shear, marginal 5%
wind/hail probability from SPC are justified, should a
thunderstorm mature. Convection and large hail/damaging wind
potential is higher across the northeast zones during the
evening, and this is where chance category pops were retained.
Clearly, the vast majority of rain and thunderstorms will be
relegated to areas north and east of the DDC CWA, yet again.

Cold front will sweep through Tuesday evening, with several hours
of enhanced north winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph are likely, as shown
by the 00z NAM/MET guidance. Daytime Wednesday will be dry through
7 pm and several degrees cooler, with a net decrease of about -4C
at 850 mb reducing afternoon temperatures to the 80s with breezy
northeast winds.

00z NAM/GFS both continue to suggest another thunderstorm complex
arriving from Colorado Wednesday evening, after 7 pm. Pops were
retained, favoring the western zones, for this expectation. More
marginal wind risk is probable.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected Thursday, with
afternoon temperatures commonly in the upper 90s. The typically
hottest locales in the Red Hills are forecast to reach 100-102.
Models show great continuity digging a strong closed cyclone into
North Dakota Thursday afternoon, with an extremely warm
downsloping 850 mb plume overspreading the high plains. Various
models suggest the dryline will become hung up in the vicinity of
the eastern zones at peak heating, with even a hint at convective
attempts near the southeast zones. Convective inhibition will be
intense, and the forecast is kept dry. Intense cold front is
expected to invade NW KS Thursday evening, and crash through SW KS
before sunrise Friday. This front will come through dry, but
winds will be quite elevated and gusty. Nocturnal timing will
reduce mixing and gust potential to an extent, still 00z ECMWF
shows 50 kts of 850 mb SWly flow ahead of the front in the
evening, and in the northerly flow behind the front early Friday.

Friday will be dramatically cooler, with the current grids
carrying about a 25 degree drop from Thursday`s observed highs.
North winds will be enhanced through midday Friday (stronger than
NBM guidance) with afternoon temperatures struggling to near 70
north, and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. 00z ECMWF depicts
continued strong cold advection Friday night, with 850 mb thermal
fields reduced to +1 to +2C across northern zones Saturday
morning. Radiational cooling is no longer expected to be strong
Saturday morning, with strong northeast winds, clouds, and likely
post frontal frontogenetic banding of light rain by sunrise.
Still, cold advection alone will send temperatures to the upper
30s and lower 40s for many. Increased NBM pops a tad Friday
night/early Saturday to get more of a mention across the CWA, but
forcing and lift look fleeting, only for a few hours early
Saturday. Saturday will be unseasonably cool, but probably not as
cool as 00z GFS/MEX suggests (50s). Cool high pressure will
settle over the central plains, with 850 mb temperatures of only
7-9C, but with some expected late May sunshine, lower to mid 60s
are expected (still 15 degrees below late May normals). Another
cool morning Sunday in the 35-45 range, before quick moderation
back to the 70s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

VFR is expected to continue through this TAF cycle, but
thunderstorms may impact the DDC/HYS terminals Tuesday evening
(00-06z Wed). After 15z Tue, south winds will increase at all
terminals gusting 25-28 kts. Convection is not expected at
LBL/GCK for the remainder of the TAF period. A cold front will
sweep through the airports 03-06z Wed, with an abrupt northerly
wind shift, and north wind gusts of 30-40 kts. The cold front is
expected to come through GCK/LBL dry. Although convective coverage
will be limited, there is enough confidence to include VCTS/CB
this evening in the DDC/HYS TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Elevated fire danger is expected across the far southwest zones
adjacent to Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. Unseasonably hot afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will drive minimum relative
humidity to the 10-15% range. Winds will trend SWly at 10-20 mph
during the afternoon hours. Do not feel gusts will be either
strong or frequent enough to warrant red flag warning issuance.
Regardless, very hot dry air will encourage wildfire growth across
the drought stricken far southwest zones Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  58  85  57 /  10  20   0  10
GCK  93  57  84  55 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  96  57  87  56 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  98  57  87  56 /  10  10   0  20
HYS  90  59  82  57 /  20  30   0   0
P28  94  64  87  60 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner