Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141147 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

A cold front extended from the Arrowhead to the Twin Ports then
southwest into South Dakota early this morning. A few showers have
developed at times along the front but the bulk of the
showers/storms were occurring behind the front in an area of
strong low level FGEN forcing. Additional forcing was occurring in
right entrance region of an upper level jet. The front will
continue southeast today clearing northeast Minnesota by late
morning and northwest Wisconsin late afternoon/early evening. FGEN
forcing will continue to move through the region today but it is
forecast to be weaker than what was occurring early this morning.
Most of northern Minnesota is expected to be dry this afternoon
with shower/storm chances continuing in northwest Wisconsin
through the afternoon. A strong storm will be possible this
afternoon over portions of northwest Wisconsin, but the threat for
severe storms is low. Highs will range from around seventy along
the International Border to around eighty over northwest

High pressure will build over northern Minnesota tonight but an
inverted trough will extend into northern Wisconsin. The high will
move over Lake Superior Wednesday with the inverted trough
remaining into central/northern Wisconsin. Most areas will be dry
Wednesday but parts we will have a slight chance for
showers/storms over parts of Price/Sawyer Counties. Highs will be
in the seventies but it will be cooler around Lake Superior due to
off lake winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

A broad area of high pressure will keep conditions fairly quiet
through the end of the week and into Saturday. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns to the Northland Saturday afternoon
through Monday.

A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the Northland
Wednesday evening bringing a period of dry weather to the region.
Temperatures will warm to near or slightly above normal readings
Thursday and Friday. Highs will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s
on Thursday and the low to upper 80s on Friday. Southerly winds
over Lake Superior will keep temperatures a little cooler in
northeastern portions of the Arrowhead. A few storms may develop
on the lake breeze in western Upper Michigan Thursday afternoon
and drift into Price and Iron County during the evening. Kept POPs
in the slight chance category for that time range.

A weak cool front will move through the Northland Saturday.
Convergence between the cool front and the lake breeze may be
sufficient for a few showers or storms to percolate along the
north shore Saturday afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough is
forecast to move through the region Sunday and may bring another
round of showers and storms to northern Minnesota. By Monday,
deterministic models feature a significant change in the pattern.
The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all forecast an organized area of low
pressure to develop over eastern Colorado and lift toward the
western Great Lakes by Monday. The details vary between each of
the models, but the overall signal indicates a potential for a few
days of showers and thunderstorms as the system moves through the
region. Have broad-brushed POPs across the Northland for Monday
and Monday night as the system passes by.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

A cold front was draped across the Northland this morning,
stretched along the north shore through DLH to south of BRD. A few
showers and thunderstorms have percolated near Brainerd and
farther west, but have struggled to develop elsewhere. The front
will continue to trek southeastward today with scattered to
isolated thunderstorm chances continuing through today. Highest
chances of storms are at Brainerd and Hayward. A few location may
see fog develop tonight and have lowered visibility late in the
period at INL, HIB, BRD, and HYR. Hayward has the best chance of
picking up measurable rainfall, so have a period of IFR visibility
toward sunrise.


DLH  76  54  73  53 /  30   0   0   0
INL  70  41  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  75  51  78  53 /  50   0   0   0
HYR  81  55  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
ASX  79  57  72  53 /  20  10  10  10




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