970
FXUS63 KDLH 131811
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
111 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon into the
  evening for the Minnesota Arrowhead due to gusty winds and
  low humidity.

- Expect isolated to scattered rain showers for the rest of the
  day today, though the overall chances of your location
  seeing rain are relatively small.

- Thunderstorm chances have increased for Monday afternoon and
  evening across the Northland, with periodic rain chances
  continuing next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the rest of the day, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies
with unseasonably cool temperatures only reaching the upper 50s
to mid 60s. We have bumped up the chances for precipitation this
afternoon, utilizing coverage wording to reflect the isolated
to scattered rain showers currently moving across the area.
While it is raining out there in spots, the actual chances of
any one location getting hit remain fairly small. Gusty west
winds have also prompted a Small Craft Advisory for western Lake
Superior through this afternoon. Showers will gradually taper
off tonight as a cooler air mass settles over the region,
dropping low temperatures into the 40s - maybe even into the 30s
in the typical cool spots.

Sunday will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer
temperatures, but the main story will be the critical fire
weather conditions. We have dropped relative humidity values
below standard guidance for Sunday afternoon, which combined
with gusty northwest winds to 30 mph, has necessitated the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead
region. While lingering cloud cover may initially slow the
drying process, clearing skies from the west should put areas
like Lake and St. Louis counties solidly in the threat area.
There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the cloud cover retreat
as an upper low spins to our northeast. If we do get the
clearing, any fires that develop will spread rapidly, so outdoor
burning is highly discouraged. Highs on Sunday will range from
the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Northland.

As we head into the new work week, Monday will begin with
sunshine before our next weather system approaches. We have
increased the chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday
afternoon and evening across the area as a quick moving
disturbance drops down from Canada. While severe weather is not
anticipated at this time, these storms could produce localized
heavy downpours and lightning. Temperatures will continue to
slowly moderate, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next
week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft,
resulting in multiple quick moving systems passing through the
region. This will bring periodic off and on chances for rain and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The most
widespread precipitation currently looks to target the Wednesday
timeframe as a slightly stronger wave moves through the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal
through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By late Thursday into Friday, the broad upper level ridging
currently stationed over the western United States may begin to
drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our
winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air
advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more
typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will generally prevail across the
Northland terminals for the rest of the day, though isolated
showers may bring brief localized MVFR ceilings and
visibilities, especially at INL. Gusty westerly to northwesterly
winds will continue into this evening, with gusts reaching 20
to 30 knots at times before weakening slightly overnight. Skies
are expected to clear from west to east heading into Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior until 4 PM this afternoon due
to westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots.
Wave heights will generally range from 1 to 4 feet. Gusty
westerly winds will persist through Sunday, with additional
gusts up to 25 knots likely during the late morning and
afternoon, which may require further advisories for small craft
operations.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Winds will remain westerly and gusty for the rest of the day
with speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Afternoon
relative humidity will stay above 40 percent today with isolated
showers. Drier conditions arrive Sunday, prompting a Red Flag
Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead. Relative humidity values
should fall into the 23 to 35 percent range, coupled with
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph though the big question is
how fast the cloud cover retreats to the east. Monday will see
similar humidity, but winds will be lighter with decent chances
for precipitation in the form of thunderstorms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ011-012-
     019-020.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
FIRE WEATHER...Wolfe