Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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635
FXUS63 KDLH 240303
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
903 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Let the advisory in northeast Minnesota expire as scheduled.
Snowfall amounts have been around one inch and the potential for
freezing drizzle has been reduced. Other minor changes were also
made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Will retain the winter weather advisory as a band of light
freezing drizzle continues its slow northwestward march this
afternoon. Light snowfall should occur and continue elsewhere
across much of the forecast area except near Intl Falls until
Friday morning. Radar shows a frontogenetic signature draped
across the northern periphery of the precip; the NAM actually has
this feature, but only has it appearing later on tonight at
common atmospheric levels. Looking at a cross section from I-Falls
to Park Falls, there is an area of negative theta-e between 700
and 600 mb that matches very nicely with this radar enhancement.
This feature is projected to dissipate per the NAM as the night
wears on, so thinking a brief period of heavier snow is possible
as this feature moves northward. Still see spin outs being
reported on the MN 511 site about where the freezing drizzle band
currently is located. All of this continues to be associated with
a low that is slowly spinning east through northern Illinois. This
story will continue through Friday, but perhaps with a 6 hour
break before the next band of precipitation makes a northward
march Friday afternoon. East winds will enhance snowfall on the
North and South Shores as favorable wind directions elevate
snowfall totals there. Due to the slow nature of the snowfall,
warning headlines are not expected despite amounts totaling near
6 to 8" along the Bayfield Peninsula.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Overall, a warm and cloudy period is expected this weekend into
next week.

A broad vertically stacked low will slowly pinwheel east on
Saturday. Some remaining snow showers, possibly mixed with a bit of
rain as temperatures warm up through the day, will be possible in
northwest Wisconsin with new snow accumulations less than an inch.

There may be a brief window for some breaks in the clouds going into
Sunday as weak ridging moves over the Northland, but this will be
short lived as an upper-level short-wave trough approaches the
northland from the west Sunday night. There is quite a bit of model
disagreement about the strength of this low, with the GFS the most
potent and suggesting the possibility for perhaps an inch or two of
snow for many areas late Sunday night into Monday, while the ECMWF
and GEM are completely dry. For now, kept a mention of flurries on
Monday, but since run-to-run consistency has been low and current
model runs disagree, confidence is low at this time. However, a warm
and cloudy airmass will most likely be in place whether or not there
is any precipitation. More shortwaves are possible through the
remainder of the week, which may produce light precipitation. With
such an unorganized pattern, it is not a surprise that models are
not able to lock onto any obvious solutions. The general trend will
continue to be above average temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to 20s, cloudy skies, and
intermittent chances for light snow or an afternoon wintry mix.
Another concern going into next week is the potential for periodic
lake-effect snow. A lack of deep cold air aloft suggests that
anything that develops should be fairly light, but there may be just
enough instability to kick off some snow showers at times, affecting
any of the western Lake Superior shorelines as winds frequently
switch directions as shortwaves pass through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys covered the terminals along with
some light snow at DLH/BRD/HYR. Look for the snow to reach HIB
early in the forecast, but not expecting it to make it to INL. The
system that is causing these conditions will affect the terminals
through the forecast, with only minor changes in categories.
Vsbys are expected to improve to VFR from mid morning through the
end of the forecast, with the cigs staying in the MVFR/IFR range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  32  26  32 /  80  40  20   0
INL  12  27  15  30 /  30  30   0   0
BRD  21  30  21  31 /  60  10   0   0
HYR  26  36  28  36 /  70  40  20  10
ASX  27  34  28  34 /  90  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for WIZ002-003.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...JDS
AVIATION...GSF



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