Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 102019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
319 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Summary: Dry and somewhat warm.

A thin line of shower activity is presently moving south across
the mid-section of our forecast area as seen on radar. It hasn`t
been generating lightning and is probably only producing enough
rainfall to keep the dust down. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly
flat across the activity, but there is a 1000-1250 MUCAPE axis
that the showers are trying to feed off of though not having much
luck as the weak front that is forcing them slides slowly south.
Guidance doesn`t make much of this line into the afternoon with
the HRRR dissipating it by 01Z just south of its present location.
This same front will cause increased wind gusts this afternoon,
but those will wane into the evening. A Beach Hazards statement
is in effect to cover the strong winds and higher waves and thus
the higher rip current potential with the front this afternoon.

With skies clearing tonight and a fair amount of dry air aloft
with decreasing winds, I would not be surprised to see some frost
in the typical cold spots with the caveat that mainly the rural
areas east of Duluth will be affected as the upper level low
just brushes the eastern side of our forecast area. Opted not to
hoist a Frost Advisory simply due to the marginal conditions and
expected areal coverage. Will hint of this threat in social media
and the HWO.

Continued dry weather ahead with Sunday, Thursday, and Friday
being the driest days. Generally speaking, winds will behave
themselves with typical diurnal oscillations keeping the threat
for Red Flag warnings on the lower side; however, with the
extended period of dry weather fire danger increases daily. There
is no chance for rain until mid week when isolated thunderstorms
are possible here and there which won`t make much of an impact in
our trend towards a drought. Several near-critical fire weather
days are possible this week with low RH`s being the main concern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

After this set of showers passes, the remainder of the forecast is
fairly quiet with clearing skies and a evolution to VFR. IFR
possible this afternoon in the low stratus behind a weak front.


Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

All quiet on the marine front after this afternoon`s small craft
advisories expire with only minimal waves and sub-20 knot wind
gusts through the week.


DLH  42  68  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
INL  44  72  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  72  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  39  67  40  77 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0  10


WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-



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