Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1012 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

There are two periods to focus on 1) the chance for light snow
tonight into Sunday night, including the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron
Counties, and 2) the chance for light precipitation Tuesday over
northern Minnesota. Cold weather will stick around through the next
week, although temperatures will moderate some.

Light snow showers or flurries will continue over northern Minnesota
due to cold air and slightly cyclonic flow. Much of these snow
showers or flurries will diminish later this evening.

Model consensus is an upper trough will swing through the region
Sunday through Monday. The best forcing from a strong wave
embedded in the trough will remain south of the Northland and only
light snow or flurries will result across the Northland. We cut
back further on snow amounts Sunday into Sunday evening and have
amounts of an inch or less. However, with the cold air in place,
there will be lake effect snow showers along portions of the South
Shore, especially northern Iron/Ashland Counties and snowfall
there could get to 1 to 4 inches from tonight into the early
morning hours of Monday. There is a concern that with cold
northerly winds tonight, higher amounts could occur but lack of
deeper moisture will be a limiting factor. Deeper moisture arrives
during the day Sunday with the upper trough and chances for lake
effect snow will continue into the early morning hours of Monday.
In addition to the lake effect snow along the South Shore, there
may be some downwind of the larger inland lakes over northern
Minnesota tonight into Sunday night. This will be very localized.

A shortwave will move through northern Minnesota Tuesday bringing a
chance for mainly light snow to northern Minnesota. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible in spots but models are trending
toward lower QPF amounts.

The rest of the period from Wednesday into Saturday will be mostly
dry and temperatures will remain below normal. However,
temperatures will moderate with highs in the mid to upper
thirties Wednesday and Thursday and in the forties by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

VFR stratus is expected this evening along with scattered flurries
embedded within the cloud deck. These flurries are expected to taper
off overnight. Low pressure moves to the south of the region
tomorrow, which is likely to lead to an additional round of snow
development along with MVFR conditions.


Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Quiet weather is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. North
to Northwest flow of 10 to 15 knots will ease to 5 to 10 knots late
tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. Northwest flow is expected
to continue until winds shift to the west on Monday. Waves are
expected to remain at 2 feet or less.


DLH  20  31  16  30 /  20  20  10   0
INL  18  31  15  31 /  30  40  20  10
BRD  19  30  13  26 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  21  33  17  31 /  10  30  10   0
ASX  24  35  21  33 /  20  30  20   0




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