Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1217 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Summary: Active weather will be prevalent through the week ahead
with anything from thunderstorms to frost expected.

A passing system to our south will advect some light precipitation
into the southern tier of our forecast area tonight. A theta-e
ridge will flatten across the Northern Plains while a shortwave
crosses Wednesday. This will cause some height falls and spin up a
small area of low pressure that is expected to bring some
thunderstorms to the Northland Wednesday afternoon/evening. PWATs
of 1, 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and long hodographs may make for an
exciting evening. At the moment, there is a bit of a severe
weather threat. Storms will initially be elevated before the
inversion erodes and allows the line to become more surface based
by evening. The SPC is expecting more of a discrete or multi-cell
event; but with the long hodographs I think that some form of a
linear feature may develop or maybe a morphing of cells into a
convective cluster as storms approach the Twin Ports into

There will be a brief break in the action Thursday morning, or at
least thats the expectation, before an organized low pressure
moves into the region. There will be a lot of buoyancy across NW
WI with synoptic lift along a warm front, but more importantly
high PWATs over an inch will pose the threat for heavy rainfall in
the warm and cold frontal portions of the low pressure system.
Broad QPF of 0.75 to 1.25 is possible with this system which
will cause rises on already swollen area rivers. With Flood
Warnings for runoff still in the mix, will have to keep a close
eye on continued flooding potential  especially since
thunderstorms are likely to be in the mix.

Cold air filters in behind this system bringing a threat for frost
into early next week. Now that the growing season is under way
will likely need some Frost Advisories if not Freeze Warnings.

Another system is brewing for early next week, but it will likely
just be a cold rain event and probably not much of it, but models
diverge quite a bit after Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

VFR conditions with calm and variable winds are expected to continue
overnight. Some light showers may be possible at INL and HYR. Winds
pick up out of the south Wednesday morning before turning westerly
through the day, with gusty conditions possible. Thunderstorms are
expected to build in the afternoon and evening and may impact all
terminals. MVFR ceilings are possible with these storms and heavy
rain could lower visibilities.


Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Fairly quiet for the next 48 hours with light east winds and
fairly flat seas; however, an incoming area of low pressure is
expected to bring thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. This could
increase winds and waves locally and also will have a lightning


DLH  39  59  45  58 /  10  70  10  60
INL  43  62  41  57 /  40  80  10  60
BRD  47  71  46  64 /  40  60   0  70
HYR  45  64  46  67 /  30  70  30  60
ASX  38  63  45  61 /  10  70  40  50




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