Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

A near carbon copy of a day for Thursday for the Northland as we
continue to see mostly clear skies and more spring-like
temperatures. The warming trend continues as we round out the week
and move into next week. Could see scattered chances for
precipitation towards the end of the weekend.

Mid level high pressure continues to be parked over the Northland
giving us temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with mostly clear
skies. Lower humidities have lead to near critical fire weather
conditions for Minnesota. By Thursday, the high pressure
will move off to the southeast which will allow for a little more
moisture to make its way up into the CWA. Regardless humidities will
still be near 20-25% and winds will increase to 10-15 mph, therefore
we could be near critical fire weather conditions again for
Minnesota and Wisconsin this time as well.

As we move into the weekend, we will move into a northwest flow
regime with several disturbances moving over the region. Not much
confidence in the models for precipitation chances over the weekend.
While we could have upper level support, it appears we will be
fairly dry at the surface. Kept pops in the extended for now and
will wait a few more model/NBM runs to see if need to make
changes.

By early next week, there is uncertainty in temperatures as models
are showing a difference in placement of  midlevel high pressure. If
this pattern persists over the next several model runs, we could see
more widespread temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

VFR conditions expected through the period. As high pressure drifts
southeast, the pressure gradient will tighten up a bit on Thursday
with winds becoming southwesterly. Wind gusts to or just above 15 kt
are expected at most terminals Thursday afternoon and early evening
before diminishing after sunset. A few waves of cyclonic vorticity
spiraling through the region have some models hinting at a few
showers developing Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly at BRD/INL,
but with dry air in place, this may result in virga and may
not impact the terminals. Confidence is high enough not to mention
VCSH in the TAFs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Winds will remain or become south to southwest tonight and remain
that way through Friday for most areas. Wind speeds will be below
15 knots and waves at or below 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  66  43  65 /   0  10   0  20
INL  40  70  42  70 /   0  20  10  30
BRD  41  68  44  66 /   0  10  10  40
HYR  35  67  40  67 /   0  10   0  20
ASX  38  69  44  68 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PA/Eagle
AVIATION...JDS/LE
MARINE...Melde


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