Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 031455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
955 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Quiet conditions abound this morning with just a few areas of
mid- level clouds and some very patchy fog where skies are clear.
The clouds are associated with shortwaves cycling about a large
upper level trough over Ontario. Surface high pressure is keeping
winds light and variable.

Today will feature a mix of clouds and sun with more sunshine
likely during the morning and clouds filling in during the
afternoon. Clouds will increase due to a combination of diurnal
heating and upper level support from the 500-mb trough that will
continue to slowly pivot through eastern parts of the Northland.
More clouds are expected in the Arrowhead and into northern
Wisconsin closer to the main waves of cyclonic vorticity
advection. Some of the CAMs are suggesting a few light pop up
showers this afternoon, but with dry air in place at the surface,
I wasn`t confident enough to add any more than a few sprinkles
over the Arrowhead. Temperature-wise, weak northeasterly cool air
advection along with some developing clouds will keep the high
temperatures down in the low 70s for most areas this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will keep the weather quiet tonight into
Tuesday. A few lingering clouds will be possible early tonight,
but clearing is expected for the most part. Couldn`t rule out some
patchy fog, but dry air will prevent anything widespread. With
winds becoming calm, some brisk overnight lows in the 40s are
likely for most areas. Partly cloudy skies are again expected on
Tuesday with a diurnal cumulus field possible. Highs in the 70s
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

An upper level trough over the Dakotas will move southeast across
the Dakotas and into Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
will bring increasing chances for rain Wednesday into Wednesday
night, possibly extending into Thursday. Long-range models
suggest enough instability may be possible for some thunderstorms
as well (up to ~1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE), though severe weather is
not expected. The best chance for showers and storms will be
southwestern portions of the region, including the Brainerd Lakes.

An upper level ridge will bring a break in the action Friday as
far as rain chances go. Surface high pressure will drift east with
southerly flow and warm air advection moving into the Northland.
High temperatures will warm up into the 80s again Friday and into
the weekend.

Upper level ridging will begin to flatten during the weekend with
long-range models suggesting several upper level short waves
passing through along with increasing moisture and instability. A
fairly active weekend may be in store with a few rounds of showers
and thunderstorms passing through. Some strong thunderstorms will
be possible with plenty of instability and wind shear suggested by
long-range models. There still remains plenty of disagreement on
precise ingredients for thunderstorm development, but in general,
a warm and humid air mass with several upper level short waves
will bring the potential for thunderstorms. Highs should easily
reach the 80s across the Northland over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 727 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Patchy dense fog at BRD will quickly erode by 13Z. Clouds will be
broken to overcast at times today as an upper level system slowly
moves through the region, but ceiling heights will remain VFR.


Issued at 954 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

High pressure over the region will lead to quiet weather over the
next 48 hours. Expect northeast winds this afternoon to transition
to easterly tomorrow. Wind speeds will generally be light under 10
knots. Waves are expected to be 2 feet or less.


DLH  70  50  71  51 /  10   0  10   0
INL  74  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  73  50  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  70  45  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  70  47  72  51 /   0   0   0   0




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