Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000 FXUS63 KDLH 121121 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 621 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 Summary: High pressure still has command over much of the region but is slowly moving to the southeast. Winds will be slightly higher today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally, near critical fire weather conditions will be present today with Min RH`s near or below 20 percent. Chances for rain increase later this week and into the weekend. High pressure continues to be the main weather feature over the region today giving us highs in the mid to upper 60s. The bubble is slowly shifting southeast bringing a slightly stronger pressure gradient across the region than what was seen yesterday. This will incite southwesterly winds across the region around 5-10 mph. As has been the case the past several days, daytime heating will lead to fair weather cumulus clouds populating the region throughout the day. We are expecting drier conditions today as well with min RH`s dropping below 20 percent for northern MN and into the lower 20s for NW WI. Due to these conditions and lack of precipitation in recent days a special weather statement has been issued for the near critical fire weather conditions for northern MN. The pleasant weather should continue into Thursday as the high slowly descends to the southeast. Similar conditions will be expected but winds will be increasing. There is still the possibility of a light shower or sprinkles in the afternoon. However, given the strong dry air in the lower levels confidence is not high that any clouds bearing moisture would have enough to produce measurable rainfall. Conditions are looking slightly more favorable on Friday. Models are suggesting a strengthening low at 850mb over eastern SD. This feature will help to draw more moisture out of the south as well as ramp up a low level jet into the region. A lot of uncertainty still remains for the weekend and beyond. The 00Z suite of model guidance continues to waver in its depictions of the system moving off the Rockies on Saturday and traveling east across the Midwest. The warm air advection fueled by this system combined with some mid level shortwaves moving across the Northland could instigate some showers. As we head into next week there is slightly better agreement on the synoptic pattern amongst the models. The GFS is now falling more in line with what the ECMWF has and keeping a cold front north of us in Canada. If this scenario unfolds we should see high pressure returning to the Northland and clearing up any lingering precipitation. Additionally, temperatures will likely rise once again and we may hit 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 VFR conditions throughout the forecast. High pressure is slowly sliding off to the southeast bringing a southwest wind today around 7 kts. Surface heating will bring fair weather cumulus clouds once again today.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021 A surface high pressure is slowly sliding to the southeast. Winds will be from the south and southwest through the next 48 hours and remain less than 15 kts. Waves will also stay at or below 2 ft. No hazardous weather expected in the near term forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 64 40 66 43 / 0 0 10 10 INL 67 40 68 42 / 0 0 10 10 BRD 66 43 67 45 / 0 0 10 20 HYR 66 38 67 41 / 0 0 10 10 ASX 65 41 68 43 / 0 0 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt

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