National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KDLH 121121
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Summary: High pressure still has command over much of the region but
is slowly moving to the southeast. Winds will be slightly higher
today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally,
near critical fire weather conditions will be present today with Min
RH`s near or below 20 percent. Chances for rain increase later this
week and into the weekend.

High pressure continues to be the main weather feature over the
region today giving us highs in the mid to upper 60s. The bubble is
slowly shifting southeast bringing a slightly stronger pressure
gradient across the region than what was seen yesterday. This will
incite southwesterly winds across the region around 5-10 mph. As has
been the case the past several days, daytime heating will lead to
fair weather cumulus clouds populating the region throughout the
day. We are expecting drier conditions today as well with min RH`s
dropping below 20 percent for northern MN and into the lower 20s for
NW WI. Due to these conditions and lack of precipitation in recent
days a special weather statement has been issued for the near
critical fire weather conditions for northern MN.

The pleasant weather should continue into Thursday as the high
slowly descends to the southeast. Similar conditions will be expected
but winds will be increasing. There is still the possibility of a
light shower or sprinkles in the afternoon. However, given the
strong dry air in the lower levels confidence is not high that any
clouds bearing moisture would have enough to produce measurable
rainfall. Conditions are looking slightly more favorable on Friday.
Models are suggesting a strengthening low at 850mb over eastern SD.
This feature will help to draw more moisture out of the south as
well as ramp up a low level jet into the region.

A lot of uncertainty still remains for the weekend and beyond. The
00Z suite of model guidance continues to waver in its depictions of
the system moving off the Rockies on Saturday and traveling east
across the Midwest. The warm air advection fueled by this system
combined with some mid level shortwaves moving across the Northland
could instigate some showers.

As we head into next week there is slightly better agreement on the
synoptic pattern amongst the models. The GFS is now falling more in
line with what the ECMWF has and keeping a cold front north of us in
Canada. If this scenario unfolds we should see high pressure
returning to the Northland and clearing up any lingering
precipitation. Additionally, temperatures will likely rise once
again and we may hit 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

VFR conditions throughout the forecast. High pressure is slowly
sliding off to the southeast bringing a southwest wind today around
7 kts. Surface heating will bring fair weather cumulus clouds once
again today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

A surface high pressure is slowly sliding to the southeast. Winds
will be from the south and southwest through the next 48 hours and
remain less than 15 kts. Waves will also stay at or below 2 ft. No
hazardous weather expected in the near term forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  40  66  43 /   0   0  10  10
INL  67  40  68  42 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  66  43  67  45 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  66  38  67  41 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  65  41  68  43 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt