Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 241957
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures peak in the upper 80s to 90 F this afternoon, driven by
upper level ridging atop broad surface high pressure situated over
the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. This is alongside a favorable
diurnal heating setup with minimal cloud cover and light southwest
flow. Resident dry airmass, evidenced by PWAT of 0.67 inches per
24.12z DTX RAOB (25th percentile for late June), has kept humidity
and associated heat indices in check and below headline thresholds.
Overall a quiet evening in store with temperatures dipping into the
upper 70s by sunset. Clear skies persist overnight, aside from a few
cirrus clouds streaming in from upstream convection, resulting in
temperatures in the mid 60s overnight.

Northward expansion of the ridge axis results in rising heights
tomorrow along with plenty of sunshine, contributing to a slightly
warmer day with high temperatures peaking around the 90 degree mark.
Once again expecting a drier heat with dewpoints holding in the mid-
50s. Overall pattern shifts late tomorrow afternoon and evening as a
closed upper low pushes eastward across the upper Midwest, dragging
a surface cold front along with it. Initially will see an increase
in mid to high cloud coverage tomorrow evening as a warm front
pushes eastward into the area, with winds veering southwesterly
throughout the vertical column. Cannot completely rule out an
elevated shower Saturday evening along the elevated frontal slope,
though the expectation is for much of this to remain virga given
robust layer of dry air below 700mb.

Model guidance is then consistent with advecting a moisture rich
airmass into the region ahead of the front, pushing PWATs to 1.75"
by early Sunday morning. Upstream convection may be able to hold
together, reaching western portions of the CWA after midnight
Sunday, although will be limited by waning diurnally-driven
instability and residual dryness in the low levels. Better chance
for showers and storms arrives between approximately 12-18z Sunday
as the frontal boundary progresses eastward through the CWA. Timing
of the front is still uncertain, with a slower progression favoring
reinvigoration of storms as instability builds throughout the
daytime hours (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg by 18z Sunday). Not expecting
organized severe weather given modest deep layer shear less than 30
knots, although high PWATs favor precipitation loading and thus
isolated cells capable of producing gusts in excess of 40 mph, heavy
downpours, and lightning.

Clearing and cooling trend commence Sunday evening into Monday as a
mid level shortwave tracks overhead and large scale subsidence takes
hold. At the surface, high pressure builds over the central Plains
contributing to a period of northwest flow over the Great Lakes and
temperatures in the mid 70s Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return Tuesday night into Wednesday as another disturbance tracks
across the northern Great Lakes. Otherwise, dry weather and a
general warming trend are expected through mid-week as high pressure
expands and southerly flow returns.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure remains firmly in place across the central Great Lakes
maintaining quiet marine weather for the near-term. This high
gradually vacates to the east over the course of Saturday out ahead
of approaching low pressure tracking into the northern Great
Lakes/Ontario. Winds strengthen and turn more southwesterly as the
high departs though gusts still generally hold under 20kts. A cold
front tied to the aforementioned low drops through the region
daytime Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler
airmass settles in behind the front setting up a more neutral
thermal profile which allows stronger northwesterly gusts to mix
down near the surface. Peak gusts up around 25kts possible Sunday
night before slowly but steadily weakening Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

AVIATION...

Weak flow will continue through the forecast period - as the surface
pressure pattern remains very relaxed. Lake breeze boundaries will
flirt with the DET and DTW terminals late this afternoon and again
Saturday afternoon - however, flow strength will remain meager with
these features. Otherwise, a very dry column will preclude any
meaningful cloud formations.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....Mann


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