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000
FXUS63 KDTX 271945
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
345 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather continues for the foreseeable future as the longwave
rex block holds. Surface high pressure system is locked over the
region and extends from the Great Lakes eastward to the Atlantic
Coast. Surface winds have finally broke from the persistent cool
northeasterly flow to more easterly and even southeasterly across
far southern MI. Winds are light though and may get a little
stronger across the eastern counties as the lake breezes kick in
this afternoon. Cirrus clouds have been streaming in from south
through the day as a slow moving low off the coast of the Carolinas
has opened a channel for moisture to lift into the region. The upper
level low over the south is segmented and wobbles about making
little progress northward as it is blocked by the upper and lower
level ridges over the Great Lakes so expectations are for only
enough elevated moisture to keep some cirrus around.

The main story for the rest of the forecast is that the current
warming trend ramps up while the recent dry spell continues on. As
the upper ridge slides slowly eastward, the southerly flow ramps up
with warm air advection aiding the already moderating airmass which
will allow temps to rise each day reaching the mid 80s early next
week and upper 80s mid week. There is even a chance at hitting 90
Thursday. As with any 90 degree day in SE MI, temps will be
sensitive to any cloud cover and easterly flow off the lakes. So
stay tuned for refinements. There is no real chance of rain in the 7
day forecast. As the ridge slides east, some weak instability wants
to start leaking into southern MI but the overriding stability of
the ridge should prevent most activity in this scenario. Best chance
might come Friday with a trough swinging down through Quebec and
eastern Ontario which could sent a backdoor cold front toward the
eastern Lakes, but the bulk of the upper level energy remains off to
the east at this point so may end up being another dry front with
slightly cooler temps working in.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure will remain in place across the central Great
Lakes through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Dry weather and
light and variable winds generally under 10 knots will lead to
favorable marine conditions during this time. Favorable marine
conditions will continue into early next week as the high pressure
gradually weakens. Winds will eventually emerge out of the south
middle of next week but still light to moderate in nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

AVIATION...

High pressure will continue to remain centered across the Great
Lakes region through the duration of the TAF period, with only
occasional cirrus impacting the terminals. The weak gradient winds
will open the door to some late day lake breeze influences, leading
to a slightly stronger (7-10 knots) southeast wind at DTW/YIP and
northeast wind at MBS.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......IRL
AVIATION.....SC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.