Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 291726
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1026 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024

Precipitation chances ending this morning with lowland highs in
the lower sixties. Temperatures quickly recover Friday into the
weekend as west flow resumes. Dry and breezy weather expected
this weekend with lowland gusts to around 30 miles per hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024

Upper low centered over central New Mexico this morning will
progress eastward today, taking the precip and cloud cover with
it. Any lingering rain/mountain snow showers will come to an end
after sunrise today.

We`ll be left with another seasonably cool day as skies clear in
the afternoon hours. Lowland highs look to reach the lower 60s,
slightly below climate normals for the end of February. Surface
winds shifting back to the west by the end of the day, where
they`ll stay for the next several days.

Zonal flow aloft shifting to the southwest over the upcoming
weekend will keep us dry and allow us to quickly recover from
yesterday`s cold front. Lowland highs return to the lower 70s as
early as Friday afternoon, remaining warm through the weekend.

Winds do pick up again this weekend in response to the polar jet
streak positioned over the central Rockies. Winds becoming breezy
out of the southwest Saturday afternoon. Currently, winds look to
remain below any headlines with lowland gusts to around 30 mph
both days. Did include patchy blowing dust along much of the I-10
corridor Sunday.

Fairly benign weather pattern early next week as the main storm
tracks remain well to our north. Ensemble solutions hinting that
a series of shortwaves will be able to dig south enough to affect
our weather after next Wednesday, with breezy winds and low-end
precipitation chances likely with any disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024

Low ceilings continue across portions of S NM and W TX with MVFR
and IRF conditions persisting. Skies SCT-BKN 010-020 will continue
through 20Z with clearing taking place after 20Z with a return to
VFR conditions later in the afternoon. Light SFC winds will
continue with a trend towards 240-270 at 08-12 knots after 20Z.
Skies should remain clear into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024

Low fire danger on Thursday given overnight wetting
precipitation. New snow has fallen over elevations above 7,000
feet and should keep RH quite high today. System exits this
morning with dry weather returning after sunrise. Winds shifting
back to the west around 10 mph this afternoon under mostly clear
skies.

West-southwest flow rest of week as temperatures quickly rebound.
Elevated fire danger Saturday and Sunday with afternoon RH 15-25%
and 20-ft winds 15 to 25 mph. Not anticipating any fire headlines
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  45  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  39  67  42 /  30   0   0   0
Las Cruces               61  38  70  41 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  35  67  39 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33  27  44  32 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  37  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              52  34  59  37 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                   62  35  69  37 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                61  35  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  43  71  45 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                61  34  71  36 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             65  38  73  39 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  40  64  42 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   64  40  72  41 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  42  69  46 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            59  35  69  39 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    63  34  72  37 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  40  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  37  67  39 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  32  60  37 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  29  56  34 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  28  54  32 /  40   0   0   0
Winston                  54  30  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                58  32  66  35 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                58  33  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  28  59  32 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                   56  32  64  34 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    61  34  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               56  35  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  35  63  37 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   62  36  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  37  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           64  37  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  40  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Laney


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