419
FXUS64 KEPZ 170014
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
614 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances clear out this evening and
overnight. Temperatures will warm this weekend and into next week.
Afternoon breezes return on Sunday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the
forecast area this afternoon. This is associated with an upper-
level low covering roughly the entire state of NM and then some.
The primary vort max is centered over northern Otero County, but a
notable secondary vort max is showing up clearly on WV imagery
toward Tucson. As the primary vort max continues to depart into
TX, it will take much of the dynamics/thermodynamics with it. A
downward trend is expected for much of the CWA, but with the
secondary vort max expected to pivot along the International
Border, at least isolated showers will continue through this
evening, especially west of the Rio Grande where we have had
better daytime heating. Main concerns for now through this evening
will be gusty winds and small hail, but again, the overall threat
appears to be diminishing.

This trough will depart through the morning with ridging expected
to replace it throughout the day and into the weekend. Rain
chances will completely end by morning while a warming trend
commences. The warmest day is expected on Sunday, after the ridge
has translated east, and deep west to southwesterly flow is in
place. Highs will near 100 in El Paso. Monday will be nearly as
warm, but winds are expected to increase ahead of a sharpening
upper-level trough. Main concern for Monday will be fire
headlines. Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy as well, but less
so than Monday as general troughiness remains in place.
Temperatures will not be quite as hot but still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The region sits between two upper level disturbances, with one
exiting to the east, and another tracking in from the west. We
have moderate moisture in place, and barely adequate dynamics
still streaming over the region despite the loss of daytime
heating. Thus we will have continuing isolated light showers
across the region. Tempo lower cigs and iso -shra. Also tempo
winds vrb 20G30kts. Overall Skies SCT/BKN 110-150. Winds 270-320
8-12kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The UL system responsible for today`s shower and thunderstorms
will depart early tomorrow morning. Drier and warmer air will move
in in its wake. Min RH values will drop into the lower and middle
teens while winds top out around 10 MPH in the afternoon. It will
be warmer and drier for Saturday but as breezy. Winds begin to
increase on Sunday and further on Monday. Elevated fire concerns
are anticipated on Sunday as winds top out around 15 to 20 MPH,
but critical conditions are anticipated on Monday as winds top out
17 to 22 MPH, which will combine with single-digit RH values
amidst much above normal heat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  62  91  66  97 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  83  60  90 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               58  90  60  95 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo               52  85  56  92 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  62  45  69 /  20  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  87  60  92 /  30  10   0   0
Silver City              51  80  54  83 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                   55  89  56  93 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg                54  87  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  88  63  94 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City                54  87  54  96 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             55  90  58  97 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               54  81  59  88 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   57  90  60  96 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             56  87  58  93 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  87  66  93 /  20  10   0   0
Jornada Range            53  87  56  93 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                    54  89  56  94 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                 59  88  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  85  58  92 /  20  10   0   0
Mayhill                  43  73  50  82 /  10  20   0   0
Mescalero                43  73  48  80 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                 42  72  47  79 /  20  20   0   0
Winston                  47  80  52  84 /  40  10   0   0
Hillsboro                51  85  56  89 /  20  10   0   0
Spaceport                51  86  54  92 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  81  48  85 /  30  10   0   0
Hurley                   49  84  52  88 /  20  10   0   0
Cliff                    51  87  53  91 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek               51  83  54  86 /  30   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  82  55  87 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                   54  87  54  92 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  87  55  92 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  81  55  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird