Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272353
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
553 PM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds
will taper off after sunset (01Z) to calmer winds around 5-10KT
from the north/northeast throughout the period. CIGs will be
unlimited and winds will stay tame this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...221 PM MDT Wed Oct 27 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
More dry weather on tap through this week and into the first half
of next week. Dry westerly flow is the main culprit for this
pattern, though several weak Pacific systems moving through will
allow temperatures to fluctuate noticeably. The cool air of
Tuesday will persist into Thursday before a ridge of high pressure
aloft builds over the Borderland for the weekend amid warmer
temperatures. More seasonable temperatures are expected Monday and
Tuesday, while a cool front from the east may move in Tuesday
night and Wednesday for cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Deep upper-level trough will continue to move eastward during the
afternoon/evening and overnight hours. That being said, the forecast
area will remain under north/northwest flow aloft. The
north/northwest wind trajectories will continue to usher in and
advect cool and dry air across the Borderland region. Middle/upper
level water vapor imagery shows a deep and dry continental airmass
over the Southern Rockies and Southern Great Plains. The 12Z upper-
air sounding confirms how dry the atmosphere is, with a PW value of
0.21 inches.

As we move through the short term period, the upper-level trough
will be well east of the region. However, pressure gradients at the
surface will continue to support breezy winds through the afternoon
and evening hours. The brisk northwest winds will keep afternoon
highs across the forecast area 5-10 degrees below average. By
tonight, winds will be lighter as the surface pressure gradient
becomes more diffuse and we lose mixing at the surface. Overnight
lows will be the coldest temperatures we have experienced so far
this season, lowlands will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s during
the morning hours. The forecast calls for another blue sky day
across the Borderland region on Thursday. In response to the
departing trough, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the
west. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than what they are
today, with lighter winds during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday...
Looks to remain dry through this period, with temperatures mostly
seasonable. Upper ridge over the area will drift east, with it`s
axis over New Mexico by Friday afternoon. This will allow for a
nice warmup from the current coolness, with plenty of sunshine and
temperatures back above normal over the weekend. Next Pacific
system begins pushing east on Sunday, breaking down the ridge and
shunting it eastward. Weak upper short wave from this feature will
move across the CWA Sunday with just some high clouds likely,
along with a few degrees of cooling Sunday and Monday.

Upper high builds ridge back into the Desert Southwest Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will sharpen up northwest flow aloft and force a
backdoor cool front toward the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Models continue to have differing solutions. The GFS brings the
front in late Tuesday night, and stalls it out over the eastern
half of the CWA into Wednesday. The ECMWF brings the front into
the eastern CWA Wednesday afternoon and all the way west by
Thursday morning. Neither solution suggests much chance of precip,
though GFS does time a small upper low moving east across the area
around the time of the front. ECMWF bringing front all the way
through would suggest much cooler temps by Wed/Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and cooler conditions will continue through the period
as high pressure builds in from the west. After the departure of
Tuesday`s powerful storm system, winds will remain on the breezy
side but will be below critical thresholds this afternoon, becoming
lighter Thursday and Friday and through the remainder of the period.
Ventilation rates will range from poor to good through the weekend.
On the other hand, Min RH values will be right around red flag
thresholds through Saturday (lowlands: 10-20%, mountains: 15-30%).
Moisture will gradually increase Sunday through the middle of next
week, as a series of weak disturbances could pull in some
moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 44  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           39  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              40  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              38  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  53  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   40  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             39  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  37  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               37  73  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      47  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  71  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              42  66  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  42  74  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            38  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          45  71  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           38  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   39  71  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                40  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               39  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 33  64  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               31  64  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                30  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 32  69  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               39  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   30  77  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              37  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 39  69  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  38  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 37  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          39  72  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              41  70  43  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

38/17/37


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