Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
031 FXUS64 KEPZ 131700 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1100 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, daytime temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The monsoon is taking the spotlight once again in today`s forecast, with multiple rounds of storms expected through the late evening hours across the Borderland. An increase in moisture from the southeast, combined with daytime heating and subtle upper- level forcing, will lead to the development of thunderstorms this afternoon. Initial development is anticipated over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mts and the Black Range, spreading into the lowlands in the late afternoon and evening. Typical monsoon hazards will exist, including moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially in areas that receive repeated convective activity. Outflow winds from stronger storms could reach 35-45 kt, bringing with them a risk of blowing dust. With the modest northerly flow aloft, upper level divergence will be enhanced, leading to improved atmospheric stretching. With that, a few storms may become strong to severe, capable of damaging wind gusts and small to medium-sized hail. The monsoonal flow continues on Monday and Tuesday with additional rounds of thunderstorms. As is common in the monsoon, thunderstorm coverage will remain scattered to possibly numerous, with a very hit- or-miss situation for rainfall and impacts. Gusty winds and localized blowing dust will continue to plague the Borderland, especially given soil drying and lack of widespread wetting rainfall. Upper-level flow will likely remain weak into the midweek with ample moisture availability, allowing for a continuation of daily, diurnally- driven thunderstorm activity. There are some indications of a weak upper low potentially moving through the area towards the end of the week, which could enhance moisture and provide additional lift, increasing the threat of more widespread heavy rainfall. Confidence in the exact timing and strength of these features is low to moderate, but the overall signal suggests a continued elevated risk for thunderstorm and their subsequent hazards. Drier air attempts to work its way in on Saturday, though current indications lean towards a continuation of monsoonal moisture. A subtle reduction in coverage may be the only result. With the increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be lower than the scorchers seen in the previous week throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Unsettled weather will dominate the TAF period. Shwrs and tstms will initiate off the high terrain again this aftn, capable of sudden and erratic downburst winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Some tstms may become strong to severe in the late aftn to early evening. Direct hits to terminals will likely create lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys due to heavy rainfall. Distant tstms will also have the ability of creating areas of BLDU, which could impact vsbys, especially in and around KDMN. Activity will diminish aft 14/05Z, leaving light and VRB winds and improving cigs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Moisture will remain elevated throughout the period, keeping minimum relative humidity values in the mid to upper teens for most zones, and higher with storm activity. Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms will be present, with gusty outflow winds being the primary concern outside of brief heavy rainfall. Venting conditions will generally range from poor to fair, with some periods of very good venting, especially westward. Consistent rainfall chances will temper critical fire weather conditions, but localized strong winds from thunderstorms still pose a risk for rapid fire spread should a new ignition occur. Additionally, lightning into receptive fuel beds may create new starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 73 96 76 / 40 50 30 20 Sierra Blanca 89 66 87 67 / 50 50 40 20 Las Cruces 96 67 93 69 / 50 60 40 40 Alamogordo 94 67 91 67 / 50 40 40 10 Cloudcroft 71 50 71 52 / 60 30 70 10 Truth or Consequences 96 68 92 69 / 40 50 50 40 Silver City 91 62 86 62 / 80 60 70 60 Deming 99 69 96 69 / 50 70 50 60 Lordsburg 98 67 94 67 / 50 60 60 70 West El Paso Metro 96 72 93 75 / 40 50 30 30 Dell City 94 68 91 68 / 30 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 97 73 94 75 / 50 50 40 20 Loma Linda 88 64 86 66 / 40 40 40 20 Fabens 96 72 94 73 / 40 50 30 20 Santa Teresa 95 70 92 73 / 40 60 30 30 White Sands HQ 96 71 93 73 / 40 50 40 30 Jornada Range 96 67 92 68 / 40 50 40 30 Hatch 99 68 95 70 / 50 60 50 40 Columbus 99 71 94 72 / 50 70 50 50 Orogrande 92 67 90 69 / 50 30 40 20 Mayhill 81 55 78 55 / 70 30 70 10 Mescalero 83 55 80 55 / 60 30 70 10 Timberon 78 54 76 55 / 70 30 70 10 Winston 88 56 84 57 / 60 60 60 50 Hillsboro 94 63 91 64 / 50 60 50 50 Spaceport 95 65 92 67 / 30 30 40 30 Lake Roberts 92 55 88 56 / 80 60 70 60 Hurley 94 63 89 63 / 70 60 60 60 Cliff 99 62 94 63 / 70 60 70 60 Mule Creek 96 59 90 60 / 70 50 70 60 Faywood 92 63 88 65 / 70 60 60 60 Animas 99 68 93 68 / 50 70 70 70 Hachita 97 67 92 67 / 50 70 70 60 Antelope Wells 96 65 90 66 / 60 80 70 70 Cloverdale 91 64 89 64 / 60 70 80 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99