Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011548
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Still pretty cold with many spots below zero still this morning.
Clear skies currently but incoming clouds from the west and
southerly winds picking up. Lowered highs a few degrees for today,
but still think we will recover nicely from the morning cold,
reaching the teens in northwestern MN and near freezing along our
western border.


UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Clear skies prevail across the region this morning with clouds and
light snow now well to our south. Temperatures range from the
teens below zero at the International Border, to lower single
digits in our southernmost counties. Winds are light, with near
ideal radiational cooling taking place. Although cold temperatures
persist through much of the morning and midday, temperatures are
expected to rebound quickly following a southerly wind shift this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Light snow continues moving to the south and east this morning, with
snowfall rates gradually decreasing. Much of the activity is now to
the south of I-94, with remnant flurries just to the north. Clearing
is taking shape elsewhere, with north winds trailing the clipper.
Travel impacts are possible this morning, mainly along the I-94
corridor and the I-29 corridor south of Mayville.

High resolution ensembles are a bit progressive with the clipper
this morning, with a slight offset to the east as well. Otherwise,
guidance is in relatively good agreement regarding the strength of
the system. With this in mind, we are looking at snow exiting the
CWA prior to the morning rush, with perhaps some lingering flurries
in our far southern counties. North winds this morning will shift
and become southerly through the afternoon, with a breezy 15 to 25
mph sustained wind expected. Gusts could reach 30 to 35 mph. This is
the beginning of our warming trend that will persist into the week
ahead. High temperatures today will be warmer to the west, with mid-
30s in the Devils Lake Basin, and high teens near the Mississippi
Headwaters. The same pattern prevails overnight with lows from the
single digits to the upper 20s from east to west.

Much warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday as southerly winds
become southwesterly, then westerly, remaining breezy during the
afternoon. Highs will reach well into the 40s, with low 50s likely
in southeastern North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Weather impacts look to be minimal throughout the extended period,
and temperatures look to be warm. Therefore, the focus will
likely be on melting the limited amount of snow across the FA.

The 500mb pattern will initially feature a western ridge/eastern
trough. The main challenge will be how fast the ridging shifts east
into the Northern Plains. The ECMWF ensemble mean 850mb temperatures
show a slow eastward progression in the warmer temperatures, with
the pocket of warmest readings arriving by Saturday/Sunday. This is
reflected in the NBM highs, with are mild through the Wednesday to
Friday period, but jump up more by the weekend. So day to day
temperature trends will depend on cloud cover, surface features
(bare ground, pine trees, etc), and wind directions. Another thing
to consider with melting snow is periods of clear skies and calm
winds, which could lead to fog.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

VFR conditions prevail across the region this morning. Impacts to
aviation will be minimal through midday, with a gradual southerly
wind shift occuring from 16Z through around 00Z. Winds will gust
to near 25 knots following the wind shift. Winds aloft remain out
of the west to southwest, as such, LLWS is expected at all TAF
sites.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch


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