076
FXUS63 KFGF 141736
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances increase throughout the week. Widespread
  impacts are not expected, however a few strong thunderstorms
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Warm air advection forcing and associated showers are exiting
the northern valley in the next couple hours. A few sprinkles
seen on webcams further south, but dry low level airmass not
favorable for any wetting rains for the rest of day aside from
the current activity across the northern valley. Isolated
thunder will move into Devils Lake basin this evening, but
activity will be dissipating with loss of heating (MUCAPE up to
1000 J/KG will be in place this afternoon across central ND,
with a steep gradient to a stable airmass eastward).

UPDATE
Issued at 915 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Webcams confirm that precipitation is reaching the ground across
the Devils Lake basin, and updated PoPs accordingly (up to 100%
for the next few hours). Will continue to reassess current
conditions and update the first few hours throughout the day.
Still some uncertainty as to how precipitation chances will
evolve throughout the day - best forcing (WAA) will be exiting
the region to the north this morning and given low level dry
airmass, precipitation chances for much of the region today
very low.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Radar shows rain pushing into the area; however, only a few obs
sites show anything reaching the ground as dry air continues to
inhibit saturation. Sites along the International Border are
reporting rain off and on. Adjusted timing slightly to reflect
the latest trends. Otherwise, temperatures and winds remain on
track this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An active pattern prevails through the remainder of this week and
into the weekend. Rain chances increase today from west to east
ahead of a weak mid level trough. The best chances for rain occur in
the Devils Lake area through much of the day before slowly expanding
east. There is a 70 percent chance to see at least 0.25 inch of rain
along the International Border by Wednesday late afternoon. Further
south, the system will interact with another system working across
the Central Plains, which will bring slightly more moisture to the
area. There is a 70 percent chance of 0.50 inch of rain or more
across the southern Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota
today through late Wednesday.

The next two systems traverse the area Thursday and Friday. These
will be in the form of H7 troughs that are extending southward in
association with a larger H5 upper low in northern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. Timing on these remains somewhat uncertain, and will
ultimately determine our thunderstorm chances for both Thursday and
Friday afternoons. As of the current guidance, there is a signal for
potentially strong storms both days, with the best chances Friday
afternoon. CAPE looks to be modest both days, generally less than
1200 J/Kg; however, this will be in the presence of good forcing and
low level shear. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out,
especially on Friday.

Active weather continues into the weekend and early next week as
another series of troughs moves across the Northern Plains. Rain
chances remain in the forecast; however, timing and amounts at this
range are rather uncertain. Overall, longwave patterns support
continued active weather and rain chances through much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR for all sites this afternoon and tonight. Isolated showers
will be here and there but no impacts to vsby or ceilings.
Although probability is too low to include within the TAF, will
need to watch if thunder can affect KDVL this evening.
Otherwise, MVFR cigs are expected to affect most TAF sites on
Wednesday, although timing uncertain. Most confidence these
lower cigs will move into KDVL by Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG/Lynch
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TG