Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Plenty of cloud cover across the northern two thirds of the region
is keeping things quite cool this morning. The only exception is
across far southeastern ND and into adjacent portions of west
central MN where there are a few breaks in the clouds. Therefore,
did lower temperatures a little bit across the north (mainly Devils
Lake basin) as clouds and sporadic rain shower activity continue
throughout the day. Other than that, just some minor tweaks to
PoPs for ongoing radar trends with everything else in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the main challenge
for the period.

Water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Saskatchewan,
and models have that system slowly wobbling down through south
central Canada today and then into northern MN by Monday. A
surface boundary extending from north central ND into our southern
counties will move very little today. The big question will be how
much clearing and warming we get in our southern counties, and
therefore how much instability. There are already some breaks in
the clouds across our southern counties, and think there should be
enough sun this afternoon to rise into the lower to mid 70s while
the north will stay socked in closer to the upper low and only in
the upper 50s and 60s. Rain showers across the northern CWA should
behave themselves, but a few of the models have some 1000 J/kg
setting up in southeastern west central MN ahead of the boundary.
Much will depend on cloud cover, but will have to watch what the
non- supercell tornado parameter does this afternoon to see if we
get a repeat of yesterday`s activity a bit further east.

The upper low continues to wobble southeast, with a continued
chance for showers. The surface trough and frontal boundary
finally start to push eastward tonight and tomorrow, with cold air
advection behind it. Temps will continue to be below average
through tonight and Monday with highs in the 60s to low 70s. With
at least some heating and the upper low nearby, there will be more
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly in the north and east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A pair of upper waves will be moving east through the region on
Monday night...one over northern MN headed towards Lake Superior and
one over northern ND on the same trajectory. This second wave won`t
have much for precipitation associated with it, but it will help
reinforce the cooler air over the region as cool high pressure at
the surface will arrive in its wake for Tuesday. Despite the high
pressure, a few showers will be possible on Tuesday under the June
sun. Highs should be in the low to mid 70s Tuesday.

On Wednesday, we`re in a similar boat. Am expecting generally a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but there will be a little
better forcing as a weak wave moves through the area ahead of an
upper low over southern AB/SK. As the upper low drifts east...an
upper wave will rotate around the south side of the low through the
Dakotas on Thursday. This could be a severe weather maker for our
area, depending on timing. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast for Friday and Saturday. However, there are two camps
of solutions: 1) the upper low drifts slowly through ND and northern
MN or 2) the upper low moves quickly NE through MB with the Northern
Plains remaining in SW flow aloft. Solution 1 results in a cooler
weekend compared to 2. Both have showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

So far fog has stayed west of the TAF sites along the western edge
of the stratus deck. A few of the sites have dropped down to IFR,
but most are MVFR. MVFR ceilings will spread northeastward and
will continue at most of the sites through tomorrow morning,
although a few could improve to VFR. With scattered showers in the
area have VCSH, and some thunderstorms are not out of the question
but not confident to include a mention in the TAFs at this point.
East to southeast winds becoming light and variable at the
northern and western TAF sites. Behind a frontal boundary, KDVL
is already northwesterly and should remain so.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JR



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