509
FXUS63 KFGF 160435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast in
  southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota Saturday
  late morning into the afternoon.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few elevated thunderstorms
  bringing a threat for one inch hail Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty winds are lessening as anticipated with the loss of
daytime heating and mixing. This is allowing blowing dust / dirt
to settle with area webcams and surface observations showing
improving visibility.

Relative humidity values are starting to increase as well with
loss of daytime heating as well as cold front moving into the
region. This will end critical fire weather conditions early
this evening.

Updated the Key Messages to remove out of date messages relating
to impacts from earlier today, while also hoisting additional
Key Message noting on near critical fire weather conditions in
portions of southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota
late morning through early afternoon Saturday. While RH values
will dip into the 20s and perhaps upper teens, winds aloft
should decrease during the afternoon during peak heating/mixing.
Thus, near critical fire weather conditions will be derived
mainly from very dry air / low RH values.

UPDATE
Issued at 519 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for portions of
northeast ND into northwest MN through 9 PM this evening.
Satellite imagery, area webcams, and automated surface
observations strongly suggest visibility reductions from blowing
dust / dirt is below 1 mile, locally to quarter mile or even
near zero (particularly in far northern Red River Valley). This
will continue through the rest of the afternoon until around
sunset when winds are forecast to start waning.

A portion of the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning within Devils Lake basin of northeast North Dakota. This
is due to observed wind gusts underneath high based rain showers
over 60 mph. Area webcams within these shower-induced severe
gusts show potential for localized near zero visibility from
blowing dust / dirt, further exacerbating potential impacts to
travel conditions in this region for the Friday afternoon
commute. This potential also continues through the afternoon
until around sunset.

Critical fire weather conditions also continue this afternoon
into early evening with RH values very low into the teens
coupled with gusty winds and dry fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to rotate over central Manitoba, and will pull
eastward into Ontario tonight. The tight pressure gradient over
our northern CWA will continue into this afternoon, and model
soundings have some spots mixing all the way up to 650mb with
gusts close to 50 kts out of the question. So far the blowing dust
has been low impact, but will continue to monitor with the potential
for higher gusts remaining through the afternoon. As the low pulls
east tonight, the pressure gradient across our northern counties
will relax this evening. Some cold air advection late tonight into
tomorrow as a front drops down. The upper flow quickly shifts to the
southwest Saturday night, with a lead shortwave coming through on
Sunday. The southwesterly flow and another shortwave pushing up into
the region Monday, then the upper trough axis shifts to the east of
us by Tuesday. Low heights with the trough could bring
some fairly cool temps for Tuesday, and may have to
watch for near freezing readings Tuesday night. Northwesterly
flow aloft sets up for mid to late next week, but a couple of week
shortwaves moving through could bring some periodic light
precipitation chances along with temperatures warming back up to
near seasonal averages for Friday.

...Wind and blowing dust potential...

Highest winds so far have been along our northern tier, although a
few higher gusts above 40 mph have started popping up along the
Highway 2 corridor. So far the worst of the blowing dust signal on
satellite has been staying up in Canada, but will have to watch
closely as we get a bit more mixing this afternoon. HREF
probabilities of gusts over 50 mph are still around 40 percent in
parts of our northern tier. For now, the wind advisory continues to
seem on track and will watch for any blowing dust bringing
visibility down below 2 miles.

...Red Flag into the evening and other fire concerns...

With winds continuing to gust up to 45 or 50 mph in the north, and
even outside the wind advisory area some sustained speeds around
around 20 to 25 mph, which is plenty of wind when the RH is 20
percent or lower. Red flag conditions should continue through this
afternoon and into the early evening before the RHs start to recover
and winds slowly come down. Conditions will still be dry into
tomorrow and a few spots in our southern counties could get below 25
percent for RH, staying around 35 percent in the north. Winds will
fortunately be a lot less, with sustained speeds staying in the
teens and any gusts around 20 mph. Relief for fire weather concerns
should come Sunday as precipitation starts to move into the region.

...Widespread rain Sunday and Monday...

With southwesterly flow aloft and a shortwave trough coming out,
most of of the models bring in rain starting late Saturday night and
continuing into Sunday. Another shortwave coming out Monday will
bring additional rainfall, although the track is a bit further south
than the first wave. Highest rainfall amounts look to be in the
south where there is a 50 percent chance for over an inch of liquid
in those two days. However, even up near the Canadian border the
probabilities for at least a half an inch are pretty high, so
widespread wetting rain seems likely.

...Severe chances Sunday afternoon...

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for some severe storms to develop
Sunday afternoon for portions of southeastern ND and west central
MN. Much will depend on how the morning rainfall plays out, and if
we can get the warm front to push far enough north to get into our
southern counties. Still, quite a few of the ensemble members have
some elevated instability around 1500 J/kg, even though the average
surface based CAPE is only around 200 J/kg. Can`t rule out some
elevated storms that could produce some quarter sized hail, so will
monitor how things evolve closely on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is an area of MVFR
stratus in Manitoba that should move into far northeast ND and
northwest MN Saturday morning, but all guidance keeps this well
north of TAF sites. Winds shift to the northwest behind a front
early in the TAF period (decreasing below 12kt), then increase
during the late morning hours as mixing increases around midday
Saturday (periodic gusts around 20kt). Winds aloft decrease
through the afternoon, and wind gusts should follow similar
decreasing trends. Surface gradient begins to build once again
by Saturday evening, with winds shifting to the northeast and
eventually the east by Saturday night.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR