Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Clear skies to start the morning across the area, with light
southerly winds to go along with them. Expect clear skies to
prevail through this afternoon and evening, and winds to pick up
to 10-20MPH with gusts up to 25 possible. Forecast remains on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

A quieter Tuesday is in store for us, with minimal POPs and clouds
building ahead of the next system. Highs in the upper 60s to low
70s.

An upper level trough will begin to encroach on the area tomorrow
night, but precipitation chances look to be less. Ensemble guidance
is in agreement that the system will miss us to the southeast, but
some areas in Minnesota Lakes country could see some light showers.
NBM probabilities are at about a 40-50% chance for a trace in our
southern Minnesota counties, with chances dropping off to less than
20% once you look at probabilities for receiving greater than a
quarter of an inch. Impacts are not expected, outside of a brief
shower between the North Dakota border and possibly as far north as
HWY-2.

Temperatures for Wednesday look to be in the upper 40s for morning
lows and the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the area of 50s being around
that area that can expect precipitation. Some cooler 850mb
temperatures wrapping around the low pressure system and rain
cooling will provide this brief dip in temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The west edge of the rain area that will move into parts of west
central and north central MN will exit to the east Wednesday night
as northern stream 500 mb short wave trough moves through.  Sfc high
will slide east behind this system into E ND by 12z Thu and east
into MN daytime Thursday.  Thursday itself looks sunny with a
developing south wind by afternoon in E ND.  Highs should be close
to late May normals (65 to 70). Friday will start to the next
larger scale 500 mb trough move into the Pacific Northwest. From
this upper trough will be several 500 mb short waves, starting
Friday night and lasting into early next week. The timing of these
individual waves are at medium confidence, but looking at
ensembles it appears to be 3 chances for precipitation. One will
be Friday night into Saturday morning as first short wave moves
from Montana into Saskatchewan with a short wave trough moving
east thru North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Moisture with
this is heaviest in Saskatchewan and overall probabilities for
rain over 0.25 inch are quite low (20 percent). It will warm up
ahead of this wave with Friday likely seeing the warmest temps in
many areas this year with widespread 70s. Next stronger short
wave will move through Saturday overnight into Sunday. Ahead of
this short wave, south winds will transport moisture northward
with dew pts near 60 possible and with sfc temps in the 70s, MU
CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg possible, with ECMWF being more unstable
than the operational GFS due to timing of wave. The final wave
looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday and at 500 mb it is the
strongest of the three. But sfc temps cooler so instability less.
NBM 4.1 shows 72 hour precipitation probabilities (12z Sat to 12
Tue) of 25 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain in the 72
hour period and 10 percent chance for 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

VFR conditions prevail today. Southerly winds 10 - 20kts with a
25kt gust possible. Mid-level clouds move in later this afternoon
and evening ahead of precipitation, but maintain the VFR category.
At the end of the period Wednesday morning, lower ceilings start
to creep into west central Minnesota, and winds briefly shift more
easterly around 5 - 10kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...AK


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