Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Impacts in the short term will be primary fire weather related,
see discussion below, and some brief showers that will move
across parts of the area this evening. With afternoon temps
reaching into the low 80s allowing surface based convection
developed early this afternoon. With 500j/kg of MU CAPE being
efficiently utilized a small cluster of thunder continues to push
to the east in NW MN with additional development evident in
satellite imagery extending back west along the Hwy 200 west of
Harvey. Will keep mention of activity through sundown.

Monday will see temps climb into the 80s again and possibly a 90
degree reading in the northern valley with 925mb temps in the 18
to 22C range under 500mb ridging. SFC pressure gradient appears a
bit stronger for tomorrow with winds across eastern ND with
unidirectional southerly flow to about 800mb with 15 to 20kts to
mix on BUFKIT soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The extended period starts off with rain chances that will continue
for the remainder of the period.
A closed low in the four corners region is to blame for moisture to
start with. As the low begins the process of being reintegrated into
the jet stream, moisture advects into our region because of a jet
streak. Instability is looking reasonable enough for thunderstorms
to be possible on Wednesday, and possibly an isolated strong storm.
Heading into the end of the week, timing of an upper low has lagged
in guidance compared to previous runs. Instability has also
decreased in ensembles, but is still enough for some rumbles of
thunder. Synoptically speaking, still expecting a mid-level trough
to dig into the western US and lift into Canada over the weekend.
Our greatest concern continues to be as the aforementioned low is
absorbed in the jet stream and the mid-level trough begins to rise,
moisture advection will be strong from the Gulf of Mexico. This has
brought projected PWATs to abnormal levels, and heavy rain continues
to be possible where showers and thunderstorms set up across eastern
North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Exact timing, amounts, and
any possibility of strong/severe weather is unknown at this point,
as guidance has yet to arrive at a conclusion everyone can agree

Temperatures will remain largely unfazed by the precipitation.
850mb Temperatures remain above normal for this time of year, with
highs continuing to reach the 70s for the remainder of the
forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

VFR for the period with SW winds 15kts or so with gusts to 25kts
will continue into the evening at GFK, DVL, and TVF being the
primary aviation concern. Some afternoon and evening showers/
virga could lead to sporadic gusts around the convective activity.


Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Afternoon RHs range from 40s in the central valley where rain cooled
air and more moisture exists to 20s and teens in the NE ND and NW
MN. Southwest winds are sustained at 10 to 20mph creating near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and will continue
into the evening. Dry conditions and even warmer temperatures are
expected Monday into Tuesday, and winds will continue to be breezy
and supportive of near critical fire weather conditions across the
Red River valley and eastern ND with the strongest gusts around
25mph in the Devils Lake basin portions of eastern ND Monday
afternoon as winds mix to 800mb or so peaking late in the
afternoon or early evening.



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