Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 172320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
520 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

With arctic high pressure building into the area wind chill
values the primary concern for tonight into tomorrow with advisory
from Cooperstown to Fargo to Park Rapids where winds chills will
fall from 25 to 40 below. To the south of this line clouds are
expected to hold temps up and limit wind chills. If clearing
expands farther south then values would be cooler or if clearing
doesn`t make it that far south then the headlines will need to be
adjusted accordingly. Expecting the light snow that moves across
western and central ND tonight to just brush the edges of the
southern valley tonight into Friday morning. Just a dusting of
snow is expected with no accumulations for SE ND or WCNTRL MN.

Light northerly winds during the day Friday will keep temps in the
single digits above zero in the south to single digits below zero
in the north for afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Arctic high pressure continues to build through the region through
Saturday. Split flow aloft limits the southward push of the coldest
air. However frigid air will still linger in the area through
Saturday night, yielding in daytime highs in the single digits below
zero and overnight lows in the teens and 20s below. Despite light
and variable winds, apparent temperatures will reach the 20 to 30s
below each night, yielding advisory conditions bringing widespread
across the area on Friday night and north of Interstate 94 on
Saturday night.

For late Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave trough aloft brings
snow chances to eastern ND. The latest GFS run does show an area
over central ND of mid level frontogenetical forcing collocated with
the synoptic level lift, which would lead to potential for
localized heavier amounts. In general, locations along and west of
a Devils Lake to Valley City line can look to see an inch or two
of accumulation from this activity with lesser amounts to the
west. Daytime temperatures moderate back toward the single digits
and teens above zero for Sunday and Monday, respectively, as
warmer air aloft moves in with upper ridging aloft. Cloud cover
and chances for snow linger through Sunday as warm air advection
develops ahead of an approaching upper trough.

Early next week, split flow begins to merge as a longwave trough
moves into the Plains. Depending on if/when this merger occurs, it
brings potential for widespread snow accumulations of several inches
for a portion of the Plains. At this time, a blended solution
suggests snow accumulations would be most likely during the Sunday
night through Monday night period, but there is low confidence in
the details with this system so will continue to monitor in the
coming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through the
TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN with high pressure
building into the region. An upper level system may produce light
snow from central ND to southeast ND, but most activity looks to
remain south. This could bring CIGs in the 3500-6000 FT AGL range
with brief flurries possible from KDVL to KFAR, but confidence
isn`t high and MVFR conditions appear unlikely if light snow were
to occur at these terminals.


ND...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028.



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