Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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378
FXUS63 KFGF 220435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

No change to the forecast. Windy conditions mostly playing out as
expected thus far. Interesting stationary rain bands oriented
north-south over the region driven by deformation and
frontogenetical circulation within the H5-H7 layer. The fgen
forcing is expected to lift away to the north through the early
morning hours, although synoptic lift from the upper low`s def
zone remains in place to continue precip production. Low level dry
air within Canada as noted on last sfc obs will advect into the
region early this morning. Still thinking evaporation within this
lower layer along with low level CAA will cause temp profile to
support rain mixing with or changing to snow for locations within
the Red River Valley and east. Given the expectation that mesoscale
forcing moves away from the region and synoptic lift somewhat
weakens over our area during this time frame, snow is forecast to
be light with little accumulation. Higher elevation locations
within west-central Minnesota hold best chance for seeing morning
snow.

UPDATE Issued at 741 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Windy conditions will continue through the evening with highest
gusts thus far reaching into the 50-55 mph range within the southern
Red River Valley and even in west-central MN with Park River AWOS
continuing to gust to 54 mph. Hires guidance suggests this continues
through the overnight as the low to the east continues to deepen
over western Lake Superior. Thus have expanded Wind Advisory
slightly further east into Minnesota.

This strengthening low is also pivoting rain bands mainly over
Minnesota. Some rain bands may enhance via H7 frontogenesis within
west-central MN. Forcing eventually focuses further north into the
Beltrami/LOW area towards the overnight where steadier rain should
develop. Still holding onto the chance of some light rain mixing
with or changing to snow on the western edge of the precip shield
associated with this low during Tue morning from the northern Valley
through Thief River Falls to near Detroit Lakes. Little to no
accumulation expected with this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Stacked low pressure system continues to bring wind and rain to
the region. Northerly winds on the backside of the system will
persist through the period. Peaking this afternoon into the
evening with sustained values around 30mph and gusts to 55mph.
Rainfall this evening and overnight will range from little to none
across Devils Lake basin with another 0.10 to 0.20 of an inch in
the valley to an inch across the Minnesota Lakes country. Precip
on the western edge may mix with a few wet snow flakes as column
cools on the backside of the precip shield. Tuesday winds will be
less but still in the gusting to 40mph in the morning and then
gradually begin to wind down. Wind advisory is in effect until
1pm Tuesday for the valley proper as a result.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Wednesday through Monday

A trough extending out of the Hudson Bay area will continue to bring
a chance of a wintry mix Wed morning before northwest flow aloft
sets up over the Northern Plains by Wednesday evening.  This will
bring a cool end to the week, with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s
before climbing into the 50s for the weekend.  Longterm models do
however begin to diverge with troughing over the plains by 12Z
Thursday, as the ECMWF shows a closed upper low move into srn plains
near the end of the week while GFS continues a much less amplified
LWT. This decreases confidence for the weekend transition to low
POPs Sun and Mon as ridging increases over the Canadian Rockies.  At
the time, no strong signal for precip during any given period in the
long term, but some activity plausible in the Sat night to Mon
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

The windy conditions will continue into early Tuesday, before
finally beginning to slowly diminish later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. There are a few north-south rain bands that may clip a few
of the TAF sites, but elected to leave them dry as the bands have
been shrinking in coverage. KDVL has broken out of the lower
clouds, but the other sites remain in MVFR for the most part.
Should begin to see some rise in these ceilings later Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Flooding continues on from record rainfall over the past 30 days.
Sheyenne River basin has seen less rainfall over the past 24hours
than previously forecast and depending on how much snowmelt with
rainfall combined gets into Baldhill Dam reductions in the
forecast will be possible over the next 24hours. With respect to
the mainstem Red River the crest of the fall flood wave is
approaching the northern valley with Drayton and Pembina seeing
rises into moderate flood stages. Flooding has ended at Crookston.

Rainfall this evening and overnight tonight will not impact area
river with significant rises as the highest amounts will be east
of the Red River basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027>030-038-
     039-049-052-053.

MN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-015-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon
HYDROLOGY...JK



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