Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Smoke will probably be the main forecast issue tonight into
Friday. Satellite imagery currently shows the smoke over
northeast North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota. Models
forecast this layer of smoke to drop southward tonight and linger
over the area through Friday. This may cause visibilities to drop
below 6 miles at times. Light winds will continue, with some local
haze contribution from the small grain harvest as well. Highs on
Friday should be back around 90 again in a lot of areas, unless
the smoke layer remains fairly thick. If it does, it may result in
highs not getting quite as warm as expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Friday night through Sunday... Upper level ridge with surface high
pressure will lead to quiet weather with above normal temperatures
Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday a cold front
will move across the area. This cold front will bring rain showers
and thunderstorms to eastern North Dakota, northwest and north
central Minnesota. Model guidance suggests that enough CAPE for
thunderstorms will be present but shear is currently looks to be low
which will limit the potential for strong to severe storms. This
cold front will also lead to much cooler weather for Sunday with
highs in the mid 70s.

Monday through Thursday... Surface high pressure with northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft will lead to a return to quiet weather next
week. Another chance for rain returns late next week as a possible
short wave moves in aloft, there is still quite a bit of model
variance at this point for the rain potential. Temperature on Monday
will continue to be cooler in the 70s with a warming trend throughout
the rest of the week with high temperatures returning to the mid 80s
by the middle of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Wind speeds throughout the TAF period should stay below 10 knots,
and generally VRB. The smoke layer is getting close to KDVL, but
will take longer to reach KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. Not too confident in how
low vsbys may get, but they may dip below 6SM, especially after
dark (just due to the way automated sensors calculate VSBY). For
now, only mentioned that possibility at KDVL.




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