Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252037
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
337 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Main problem of this forecast is that most areas will have the
bulk of the snow from this event later than earlier forecast and
amounts look less. For much of our Nebraska part of the CWA, the
bulk of our snow will fall 03Z to 09Z, it appears, except for
areas far north that have already received 2-3 inches. We have has
some patchy freezing drizzle in some locations, but for the most
part, has not been all that impactful, it appears. This falls in
line with what was expected.

The positive tilted upper trough is still sinking south. Synoptic
lift still looks poor for our area, and the mid-level lift that we
were counting on for snow amounts is not as impressive as
yesterday.

The general take is that both ensembles and deterministic models
have backed off of our snow, focusing well to the west. I have
backed off our snow amounts one or two inches and this might not
be quite enough in the tri-cities as the forecast still is going
for 3-4 inches tonight. It might turn out to be closer to 2
inches. We may still be in line for 2 inches in our south. Still
looks like we may be in for a relative minimum somewhere in our
central CWA as the NAM still leans toward this, as it did
yesterday.

Synoptic lift is maximized for us on Monday/Monday night, albeit
weak. For this reason, I did keep flurries around on the northern
shield of precip as it shifts south for Monday/Monday night.

System midweek from closed low heading out of the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains could paint some precip in our southern
half of the CWA. This could mean a little snow/rain for us, but
this is beyond forecast QPF/snow amounts. Not looking too
impressive for us so far.

General warming trend is still expected later in the week, but
will depend on how much snow is on the ground from this current
snow event to some extent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Main issue will be wind gusts this afternoon/evening and MVFR
ceilings and visibility expected to drop to IFR range with snow
falling tonight. We could get a good good inches of snow through
the overnight.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein



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