875
FXUS63 KGID 211138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As snow continue to melt amidst mild temperatures, bouts of
  strong winds and dry air will bring dangerous fire weather
  back to the forefront of weather concerns this weekend.

- Despite multiple frontal passages, temperatures will remain
  mostly above normal over the next 7-8 days with highs ranging
  from the upper 50s to 70s.

- Only low-end chances (mainly 10-30%) for rain are expected
  over the next several days (mainly Sat night and Mon night),
  before perhaps a stronger/more organized system arrives late
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The main forecast impacts over the next few days will be fire
weather due to strong wind gusts and dry air. This is discussed
in greater detail within the dedicated Fire Weather section.

Temperatures:
A relatively low-amplitude and progressive zonal to NW upper air
pattern is forecast for the next several days, which should lend
itself to multiple weak disturbances and frontal passages.
However, it doesn`t appear any of these fronts will really look
to move the proverbial temperature needle a whole lot as any
cold air advection is brief and somewhat offset by downsloping
flow and at least SOME sunshine. Thus, models are in good
agreement (as evidenced by very low spread in latest NBM
guidance) with highs mainly in the upper 50s to 70s over the
next several days - warmest in typically favored W/SW/S zones.
The main temperature uncertainty today and perhaps again on
Saturday will be areas that still have substantial snow pack.
Should put a significant dent in what remains today, then finish
most of it off on Saturday. Any snowcover that lingers into
Sunday should only be in narrow bands where the heaviest snow
occurred, and these should be too small to meaningfully affect
temps. Latest ensembles suggest further warming (more widespread
70s and perhaps even some 80s!) ahead of our next stronger
system that arrives in about a week.

Precipitation:
The aforementioned pattern will likely make substantial moisture
very difficult to come by, with only brief and mostly minor
chances for a few passing showers possible off and on over the
next several days - generally associated with the weak
disturbances/fronts. Can`t COMPLETELY rule out a stray shower
far NE/E zones this aftn/eve, but think the next chance will be
with a front Sat eve/night. Latest hi-res guidance keeps
activity pretty iso-scat, and given dry low levels (as evidenced
by the fire weather concerns), there`s only a 10-30% chance
amounts will register more than a trace. Another such wave and
very minor/low chances could come on Mon eve/night - but this
isn`t even in the latest official forecast as NBM chcs are still
less than 15%. Ensembles bring in a stronger system with greater
moisture to work with in about 7-8 days, and latest EPS probs
for >0.10" run currently run around 30-60%. Chances drop off to
10-20% for >0.50". Not much cold air to work with, so signal for
frozen precip is low/weak at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Signifcant weather: Low level wind shear (LLWS) ends this
morning, then strong NW winds today.

VFR through the period with only periodic mid to high clouds.
NWrly LLWS behind a cold front now will mix out 14-15Z as sfc
winds incr. Sfc winds will be strong much of the day, sustained
15-20kt and gusting 30-35kt out of the NW. Winds will decr
quickly around sunset, then go lgt and vrbl tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Fire weather concerns will be on the increase today and
especially over the weekend as most, if not all, of the
remaining snow cover melts over the next 24-48 hours. The
lingering snow pack (how much and where) is the primary limiting
factor to greater confidence for headline decisions as wind
gusts will likely meet and even exceed critical levels each
afternoon- evening. In fact, deep mixing to at least 800-700mb,
per latest short- term hi-res forecast soundings for this
afternoon, should support widespread NW wind gusts of at least
30-40 MPH. Some gusts could reach as high as 45 MPH N and W of
the Tri- Cities where the ground is most bare. The downsloping
component to the wind over already dry/bare ground over the High
Plains should really help RHs tank over our far W/NW where snow
was the lightest and has already mostly melted. Furnas, Phelps
and Buffalo Counties COULD be a bit marginal depending on new
snow melt later today, but felt best to err on the side of
caution given the magnitude of the wind and potential for burn
piles that may have been lit with the recent snow cover to
possibly reignite.

Winds will decr substantially this evening/overnight, then pick
back up on Saturday ahead of the next system, though this time
out of the S to SW. Guidance is in pretty good agreement in
sustained winds of 15 to 25 MPH, with gusts of at least 30-35
MPH for much of the daytime hours Saturday. Gusts even as high
as ~40 MPH can`t be ruled out, though mixing depth isn`t quite
as high (more Srly direction), and some clds could pass through.
As mentioned above, the humidity forecast isn`t as quite as
straightforward. The southerly wind direction will advect mostly
recycled, though at least somewhat modified, continental air
back northward, but the potential for at least some snow to
remain and the impact of the clouds could keep RHs more marginal
compared to our W today and the majority of the area on Sunday.
Could envision another Red Flag day for areas that have it
today, along with far SE zones given little to no snow cover,
but opted to give the next shift a chance to reassess for a
possible Fire Weather Watch.

Finally on Sunday, models are in good agreement in both strong
NW wind gusts - perhaps the strongest of the next few days - and
more widespread near or sub-20% RHs. Should also have little to
no snow cover remaining for 80-90% of the forecast area by then.
Fire weather headlines are looking increasingly likely for most
or all of the forecast area Sunday afternoon into early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Thies