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000
FXUS63 KGID 151058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Today, we will see southwest winds develop at the surface and
aloft. Surface wind gusts have been increased from the previous
forecast, but should still only top out at 20-25 MPH. The
southwesterly flow will also be favorable for a nice warmup, with
most places reaching the upper 40s to 50s.

Late this afternoon, a shortwave trough will move through the
northern plains. This will bring an increase of mid and high clouds
into the evening, and will shift winds back to northwesterly
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than today behind the
aforementioned trough. Nevertheless, with highs in the mid 40s to
low 50s, it will feel quite nice..especially given the light
winds with the high pressure overhead.

On Monday, we see this surface high shift eastward as mid and
upper level ridging develop overhead. This should be a good
recipe for another warm day, so I continued to favor the warm side
of guidance.

By Tuesday, an upper trough is forecast to move into the central and
southern plains with a secondary trough dropping out of Canada
Wednesday into Thursday. Models have trended stronger with these
features, which means that Tuesday through Friday may end up being
a bit cooler than previously forecast. It won`t be cold by any
means, but we are probably looking at more 40s than 50s for
high temperatures. Also of note, is that the model consensus
(mainly driven by GFS and Canadian) is showing a slight chance for
very light rain as the secondary trough moves through Wednesday
afternoon.

Confidence decreases as models start to diverge on the strength and
timing of systems by next weekend. That said, the GFS, European, and
Canadian ensembles all indicate that temperatures will overall
remain warmer-than-normal as we head into the week of Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Quiet VFR conditions continue for today and tonight.

Winds will be southwesterly during the daytime today, possibly
gusting up to 15kts at the terminals this afternoon.

Winds become light and northwesterly this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels