084
FXUS63 KGID 031732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter, summer-like weather is expected today. Dry conditions
  will remain through tonight.

- Showers and storms are expected for the holiday weekend,
  which may impact some outdoor plans.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms continue into the
  start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Expect one more day of quieter weather before a pattern change sets
in. An upper ridge will shift east over central Nebraska today.
Southerly winds increase later this morning into the afternoon, with
warm air advecting into the region. Expect a very summer-like, hot
and dry day with highs topping out in the low to mid-90s. For those
heading out to enjoy holiday festivities, temperatures around 10pm
will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday, the ridge continues to shift east, over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa in the morning. The area will come under southwest flow
with a shortwave from the Four Corners region lifting to the
northeast through the early morning hours. Isolated showers and
storms may be possible in the early morning hours for areas in north
central Kansas and the western portions of our area. Thunderstorm
chances (40-70%) increase heading into the afternoon and evening,
which may put a damper on some outdoor holiday plans/fireworks
shows. Any storms that are able to develop will have the potential
of becoming strong to marginally severe, with gusty winds, small
hail and heavy rain all possible. The Storm Prediction Center has
put much of our CWA into a Marginal Risk area. The Marginal Risk
includes the Tri-Cities and areas along and west of a line from
Stromsburg to Red Cloud to Alton.

Heading into the weekend, southwest flow transitions to zonal flow,
with a series of shortwaves moving into the region. Periodic showers
and thunderstorms will impact the region during this time, although
timing, coverage, and locations impacted remain uncertain at this
time. Expected highs will be primarily in the 80s. A few low 90s may
be possible Saturday afternoon in north central Kansas and the
western portions of our south central Nebraska counties.

Monday and Tuesday, a closed upper low approaches northern
California, with an upper ridge developing over the Rockies. There
are periodic chances for showers and storms both days; however,
discrepancies remain between models synoptic features moving
into the area in addition to storm timing, coverage, and
location. It does look like slightly higher chances for storms
will be possible during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: MVFR CIGs possible late in the period.

Fair weather CU and breezy S winds will prevail this afternoon
and early evening. Winds will back off a touch after sunset, and
quiet conditions are expected to persist overnight. Confidence:
High.

Continued low level moisture advection should yield SCT to BKN
stratus streaming northward by 12-15Z Friday. Both sites will
have the potential for MVFR CIGs mid to late AM, though
typically these setups tend to favor EAR a bit more than GRI.
Srly winds will increase after sunrise to sustained 14-17kt,
with gusts 24-28kt possible through Fri afternoon. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase just beyond this
TAF cycle into Friday afternoon-evening. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Thies