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000
FXUS63 KGID 090520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1120 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Overview...
We have several big story lines through the week ahead. First,
everyone that is able should get out and enjoy the near record
highs on Tuesday that will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Second, until the front passes on Wednesday there will be some
near critical fire weather in a few spots, mainly across north
central Kansas. Third, we will transition into a cooler and wetter
set up possibly as early as Friday, but more likely by the
weekend.

Tuesday...
This will be the last full day ahead of the cold front with
southerly winds. We could see a few clouds, which may be just
enough to keep us a few degrees below our record highs for the
day, but it will be close. Record warm minimum temperatures are
likely on Tuesday with lows only in the upper 40s to around 50 in
Grand Island and Hastings. RH values will be rather low west of
Highway 281, but winds will be rather light across southern
Nebraska. The southerly winds will be a bit stronger across north
central Nebraska resulting in near critical fire danger in places
like Rooks and Phillips Counties, but not expecting Red Flag
conditions at this time.

Tuesday night...
We could see some warm air advection thunderstorms with a good low
level jet and sinking frontal boundary. However, instability will
be rather minimal so not expecting anything very strong.

Wednesday...
This will be a transition day with the front tracking south
through the area. There will probably be a pretty good
temperature difference between Ord and Beloit on Wednesday, which
could be an over 20 degree difference in highs. The warmer air
over Kansas and still lower dewpoints will allow for one last day
of near critical fire danger across our Kansas zones.

Thursday and Friday...
Thursday will likely be a quiet day between storm systems as a
closed upper low takes shape over the desert southwest. Depending
how quickly the storm system ejects Friday may end up dry as well.
Right now I would lean towards a dry Friday, but we are carry some
small rain chances based on a few of the NBM members.

Saturday through Monday...
We will really need to keep an eye out for how this closed low
ejects out into the plains and the path it takes. The 12Z GFS and
12Z ECMWF lift the upper low almost straight north over our area
or into western Nebraska, which would put us more on the warm side
of this system bringing more rain than snow. However, there are a
number of ensemble members with a further east track that could
give our area a decent snow. It is just too far out to say much on
precipitation type at this time other than both rain and snow
will be possible with this system depending on storm track.
Precipitation amounts could also be appreciable for some areas
that see a more favorable storm track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Low level wind shear will continue thru the night at the terminals
with strong winds above the surface around 45kts. Wind speeds will
decrease on Tuesday as a cold frontal boundary approaches, with
the front reaching KEAR/KGRI toward the end of the TAF period.
Cloud cover will be limited and at VFR levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 336 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

New or near record temperatures are possible on March 9th.

-Grand Island high temperature - forecast 78F (Record High 80F
 set in 1904)
-Warm minimum temperature - forecast 49F (Record 41F set in 1902)

-Hastings high temperature - forecast 78F (Record High 78F set in
 1936)
-Warm minimum temperature: forecast 49F (Record 42F set in 1923)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Fay
CLIMATE...Fay/Wesely