889
FXUS63 KGID 121754
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1254 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers today, with more
  widespread shower (and isolated thunderstorm) activity
  expected this evening and into the morning hours Monday.
  Severe weather is not anticipated.

- A weak cold front and upper level disturbance will bring
  additional chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
  Tuesday night into Wednesday, with severe weather again
  appearing unlikely.

- More spotty shower and thunderstorm activity expected Thursday
  through next Sunday, with many areas likely remaining dry over
  this period.

- Seasonably nice temperatures are expected for at least the
  next week, with fluctuating temperatures mainly in the 70s
  (with a few isolated low 80s at times).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An upper level low spinning across Colorado is sending some
cloud cover and light showers across portions of north central
Kansas this morning. Thus far...there has been no lighting with
this activity, although with some limited instability to work
with, expect a few non-severe thunderstorms across the local
area once instability increases later this morning.

As the aforementioned low transitions in to the central plains
and begins to scoot across southern Kansas later this afternoon,
expect an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
region, although the daytime hours are not expected to be a
complete washout. The more steady and widespread precipitation
is expected this evening into the first half of the day Monday,
with the overall focus of more persistent and beneficial
rainfall expected to fall near and south of I-80. Given the
minimal instability and weak shear, severe weather is not
anticipated with this approaching weather system.

As the low then tracks east of the region Monday afternoon,
expect a break in precipitation chances ahead of weak cold
front and upper level wave, which should bring an uptick in
shower and thunderstorm activity as they push south across the
local area Tuesday evening. Again, while much of the area should
see a fairly good chance for some accumulating precip, overall,
this is not expected to be a major weather event - and severe
weather is not anticipated.

After this front moves south of the local area Wednesday
afternoon, precip chances will become much more spotty through
the end of the week and into next weekend as the upper level
flow becomes more zonal (and fairly weak) with no signs of a
significant disturbance impacting the local area. Instead, weak
impulses may bring spotty weak showers/weak thunderstorms at
times, but overall, most locations should be dry Wednesday
afternoon and into next weekend, with seasonably nice
temperatures mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR with BKN mid to high clds will give way to incr potential
for scat thunderstorms this aftn and early evening. Coverage and
placement is still uncertain, so only have VCTS at this time.
Any tstms will transition to mainly rain showers late this
evening and into the overnight, but again, coverage/duration at
the terminals is low confidence. In general, rain chcs should
decr from W to E in roughly the 09-12Z time frame. CIGs and
VSBYs are also low confidence and will be somewhat dependent on
how widespread the rain shwrs are. Recent HRRR runs have really
backed off on the MVFR-IFR CIGs tonight, whereas most other
guidance has low clds, though to varying degrees. With some E-NE
upslope component to low level flow and fairly high BL RH the
general pattern would seem to support the idea of MVFR to IFR
CIGs (and perhaps sub-VFR VSBYs) thru mid-AM Mon. Clds should
gradually decrease late Mon AM into the aftn.

Winds will be quite variable in direction through this evening,
then bec mainly E to NNE tonight into Mon AM...though speeds
will be light throughout at generally 5-10kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies