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000
FXUS63 KGID 260553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Issued a dense fog advisory for east/southeast areas of the CWA as
stratus has moved west and descended to give us some dense fog.
The westward expansion will halt as drier air tries to work in
with wind direction turning west overnight, with also some mid-
level clouds moving in as well, so dense fog will not likely hang
around as long as it did this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Quiet conditions reign across the area this afternoon,
unfortunately much of the CWA is getting another day full of
cloud cover. Upper level and satellite data show generally
northwesterly flow in place across the region, with the CWA
sitting between a weak disturbance crossing the Srn Plains and
areas of low pressure over the Great Lakes and eastern Montana/Can
border. At the surface, winds are SSW and mainly around 10 MPH,
as high pressure extends along the MO River and a trough
axis/frontal boundary runs through western portions of NE/KS. The
day started out with dense fog across the eastern third or so of
our NE and plenty of cloud cover CWA-wide, the fog lifted late
morning, but the stratus again has been holding strong, especially
for areas east of HWY 281. Hasn`t been any surprises with
temperatures today, 3 PM obs range from the lower 30s in the east
under that cloud cover to mid/upper 40s in the far western edges
of the CWA.

The forecast for the short term period tonight through the rest of
the weekend remains a dry one, with the primary concern lying with
fog potential again tonight. Models are in good agreement showing
that upper level disturbance currently over the eastern Mont/Can
border sliding southeast with time, ending up over western IA late
Sunday night...keeping any associated light QPF northeast of the
CWA. At the sfc, models continue to show the potential for fog to
redevelop this evening/tonight across eastern portions of the CWA.
Winds across this area linger out of the south longer with those
light speeds, turning more variable for a period of time before
becoming more westerly as that sfc trough axis currently off to
our west pushes through tonight. This area is also where that
lower stratus remains stubborn and has less of a T/DewPt spread.
Have a patchy/areas of fog mention going for roughly the eastern
half of the CWA...which matches up with recent HRRR/RAP trends.
Locations mainly along/east of HWY 14 look to have the best
potential for visibilities dropping to/below a half-mile, and will
insert that mention in the HWO. Any fog that develops could
linger into the mid morning hours on Sunday.

Confidence in temperatures tonight and Sunday isn`t the highest,
as  how the cloud cover/fog evolves will have a big impact. Have
generally mid 20s for lows tonight, and am definitely on the cool
side of models/guidance for Sunday highs. Forecast currently has
upper 30s northeast to lower 50s southwest...but if fog/clouds
diminish quicker than current thinking, these temps would end up
warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Dry conditions are forecast to continue on into the start of the
new work week, but some precipitation chances aren`t far off.
Models showing northwesterly flow aloft turning more zonal with
time, as a shortwave disturbance makes its way through the
Rockies. The daytime hours on Monday are expected to be dry, with
chances picking up Monday evening/overnight and continuing into
the first half of the day Tuesday. Thinking that current forecast
PoPs may end up being too generous in both area and time...most
model support keeps QPF confined to the southwestern half/third of
the CWA...with some showing the chance we get missed altogether.
Snow looks to be the primary precip-type.

Upper level ridging looking to build in behind this Tuesday
disturbance, keeping the mid-week period dry, with more
uncertainty arising as we get into Thursday and Friday. Models
show at least one disturbances, possibly 2, during that late week
time frame...but blend just has some 20% chances going at this
point.

As far as temperatures go, currently not looking at any big swings
either way. Monday highs are in the 30s for much of the area, with
more mid/upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals.

Even though some fog has developed to the east from descending
stratus, it is not expected to expand westward. Winds will be
westerly overnight and should help to usher in drier air which
will help to combat the fog and low stratus. GRI is expected to
take longer to scatter out than EAR though, due to the
persistence of the low stratus deck and mid level clouds that are
hanging around. Light winds will also continue throughout the TAF
period and are expected to turn northwesterly late in the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for NEZ049-063-064-
     075>077-085>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Shawkey