Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KGID 191144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 60s and 70s Today, which will be the warmest day
  of the forecast period.

- A chance (15-45%) for light rain Thursday night for areas
  mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities

- Widespread chances for precipitation (40-75%) this weekend as
  the next system brings the potential for rain, thunderstorms
  and snow. Uncertainty still remains on the exact impacts from
  this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Today and Tonight...

Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs in
the 60s across south central Nebraska, and portions of north central
kansas climbing into the 70s. Winds will become breezy and northerly
during the morning hours, but winds will gradually decrease during
the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest winds will be mainly
northeast of the Tri-Cities. While afternoon relative humidity (RH)
values will fall below 25% for most areas, decreasing winds and the
lowest RH values being displaced from the highest winds will limit
fire weather concerns to being "elevated". Lows tonight will hover
around the freezing mark for most areas, with the warmest locations
across north central Kansas.

Wednesday...

A backdoor cold front will lead to a cooler day, with highs in the
mid 40s to upper 50s. Temperatures in some locations will be 20
degrees colder than on Tuesday. Winds will be breezy and easterly
during the day on Wednesday, with gusts to 25 mph. While winds will
be breezy on Wednesday, RH values will be higher than on Tuesday,
and the strongest winds will be displaced from the lowest RH values
once again, keeping any fire weather concerns low.

Thursday through Friday afternoon...

Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s, with lows approaching the 60s
across eastern portions of the area. A quick moving clipper system
will move north of the area Thursday night, bringing the next chance
for precipitation (15-45%) to the area. Areas north of I-80 will
have the highest chances (25-45%) to see any precipitation from this
system. Any rain that does fall Thursday night is expected to remain
light. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a 10% chance or for
0.10 inches or more of precipitation, with the highest chances
northeast of the Tri-Cities. Any precipitation will come to an end
Friday morning. Friday will be cooler behind the cold frontal
passage, with highs in the 40s and 50s.


Friday night through Tuesday...

An active pattern will continue this weekend as an approaching
trough over the west coast will bring multiple chances for
precipitation to the area. There remains uncertainty regarding the
exact track and development of the system however the general timing
of rain/snow is gradually becoming clearer. The highest chances for
rain (50-75%) will occur this weekend within the warm sector of the
low. A few thunderstorms are possible this weekend as weak
instability moves into the area, however at this time any severe
thunderstorms are not expected. Snow will be possible along the
backside of the system as it departs from the Plains Sunday night
into Monday. Model spread increases as the low begins to exit the
area, bringing uncertainty on the potential snow impacts. While
precipitation chances currently persist from Friday night
through Tuesday morning, this will become more refined as the
details on the system become clearer. This system will continue
to be monitored closely over the coming days to determine the
exact impacts it will bring.

There remains considerable uncertainty on temperatures this
weekend, with the NBM 25-75th percentile temperatures showing a
20+ degree spread in high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be cooler as the system departs the area next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR Conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will
increase and become north-northwesterly this morning. Wind gusts
around 20 mph will be possible from the mid morning hours into
the early afternoon hours. Winds will decrease this afternoon
and become light and variable this evening. Clear skies are
expected through midnight. A few mid level clouds will move
into the area after midnight, with northeast winds increasing to
10 to 15 mph by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.