411
FXUS63 KGID 262313
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weakening showers/storms may move across the area Saturday
  night into Sunday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to redevelop
  Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Most areas will
  probably remain dry, but some of the storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Dangerous heat returns next week. Tuesday and Wednesday are
  expected to be the hottest days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Visible satellite only shows some diurnally-driven cumulus over
southeastern portions of the area, with mostly clear skies
across the rest of the area. Smoke concentration is also on a
decreasing trend, reducing some of the hazy skies that have
plagued the area over recent days.

Saturday will be similar to today, and is actually expected to
be the coolest day until AT LEAST late next week. Regardless,
the expected high temperatures in the 90-98 degree range would
still be a few degrees above normal. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop over western Nebraska in response to a
shortwave aloft. The local area will remain dry during the
daytime, but many short term models are now showing some of this
activity moving through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Storms will be on a weakening trend, and many areas will miss
out entirely, but some small PoPs were added to account for this
potential.

The warming trend begins on Sunday, with portions of Kansas and
SW Nebraska reaching 100 degrees. This warmth, combined with
increasing wind speeds aloft, will provide an environment
favorable for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night (MUCAPE 1500-3000J/kg and 30-40kt bulk shear). That
said, storm coverage is still pretty quite uncertain, with many
models keeping most (or all) of the forecast area dry. The
broad "Marginal" Risk from SPC seems appropriate at this time,
though this could be upgraded if confidence in coverage
increases.

Heading into the workweek, the main story is the heat. Tuesday
and Wednesday are still expected to be the warmest days. On
these days, there is a high likelihood of reaching advisory
criteria (heat index 105+) for at least parts of the area, and
southern zones could even approach Excessive Heat Warning
criteria (110+).

A shortwave provides some low chances for rain/storms Wednesday
into Thursday, along with possibly a minor cooldown. That said,
global ensembles still favor slightly above normal temperatures
into next weekend and hint at another heatwave for the
following week (Aug 4-8). This continued heat, along with a lack
of precipitation may lead to rapid onset drought in some areas.
Based on the 12Z EPS ensemble, the chance for anything more
than 0.50" of rain through the next 10 days is low (10-40%).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected the TAF period.

Mainly southerly winds will prevail through the period. Wind
speeds of 10 to 15 kts are expected this evening and overnight,
increasing shortly after sunrise Saturday morning to 15-20 kts
sustained with gusts to around 25 kts. Late Saturday morning,
winds will increase slightly with gusts of 25 to nearly 30 kts,
persisting through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be
mostly clear through the TAF period with a few cirrus clouds
moving in Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hickford