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000
FXUS63 KGID 020904
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
404 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue early
this morning in a moist airmass near and north of a stationary
boundary across KS. The most widespread coverage is southeast of
our forecast area, but it is starting to fill in more across
central Nebraska. Additionally, a dying line of thunderstorms
approached the area from the west last night. The initial line has
largely dissipated, but a few new updrafts are percolating on the
outflow. Therefore, most of the area has at least some chance for
rain/thunder through this morning. This afternoon and tonight, a
few models show redeveloping convection, but based on the HREF
updraft/precip probabilities, believe that this is a pretty low
chance .All in all, the majority of the area will stay dry through
tonight, and it will end up being a very pleasant day with highs
in the 80s and relatively light southeasterly winds.

On Sunday, the front lifts back northward, resulting in slightly
breezier south winds and increasingly warm temperatures. Highs
will return to the 90s for most. The daytime will probably end up
being dry for most, but one or more convective clusters may arrive
from the west in the evening and overnight. These will probably
we on a weakening trend, but a 50kt 850mb LLJ may allow them to
persist into central Nebraska/Kansas long enough to substantiate a
marginal severe threat.

The 4th of July is looking mostly dry across the area as we see
rising heights and temperatures in the midlevel. Model consensus
continues to support temperatures near 100 degrees for a good
portion of the area, and a good portion of the area may end up
reach heat advisory criteria (105 degrees+).

Tuesday still looks like the hottest day for most of the area. In
fact, the latest NBM4.1 guidance shows a 50 to 90 percent chance
in exceeding 100 degrees for most of the area. Additionally, it
will feel even hotter as winds go light/variable as a surface
trough of low pressure moves into the area. Scattered
thunderstorms are again possible during the evening and overnight
in the vicinity of this feature.

Wednesday through Friday will remain fairly warm, with
temperatures only trending down slightly as the upper pattern
becomes less amplified and series of shortwaves move through the
area. Deterministic models continue to have large discrepancies at
this timeframe, but ensembles continue to show that Wednesday and
Thursday will bring us a good chance for relatively widespread
rain/storms. Hopefully this can provide some meaningful relief
from the increasing drought concerns. Especially because next
weekend is looking hot and dry again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Storms over the Sandhills should weaken as they approach EAR/GRI,
but there remains a brief window for some vicinity thunder
Saturday morning. Additionally, the HREF and other short term
models continues to indicate good potential for MVFR stratus
during the morning hours.

An isolated storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon and
evening, but probability is far too low to include in this TAF
issuance.

Another round of MVFR or even IFR stratus is possible Saturday
night, but confidence is pretty low at this point.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels