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000
FXUS63 KGID 312353
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Aloft: Low-amplitude anticyclonic flow was over NEB/KS in the
wake of a trof over the Ern USA. A shrtwv ridge will become better
defined over the rgn tonight as a broad potent trof remains over
the NW USA. The ridge will move E of the rgn tomorrow with SW flow
developing.

Surface: 1008 mb low pres was near Lk Winnipeg. A cool front
extended SW from this low into WY. A warm front has developed and
extended from near RAP down into S-cntrl NEB. High pres was over
the Srn Plns. The cool front and low will move very little until a
stronger cold front drops out of SW Canada tomorrow and gives the
initial front a shove to the SE. It will enter the panhandle Wed
afternoon. The warm front will advance acrs the CWA this
afternoon. Therefore...the CWA will remain in the warm sector thru
at least 00Z/Thu.

Tonight: Variable between mostly cldy and mostly clr. There is a
lot of altocu moving in...and fcst soundings suggest mid-lvl
instability will cont to support alto and possibly some accas.
Lows 10-15F above normal.

Wed: Mostly sunny in the morning...but a high cirrostratus shield
will gradually overtake the area from the SW. Expect skies to
turn partly sunny or mostly cldy in the afternoon. Should become
thicker as the afternoon progresses...espcly S 1/2. Despite
that...a very warm day with temps 15F above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Aloft: The longwave flow thru next Tue...it`s the same old story
we`ve been telling since mid Nov. Wrn trof/Ern ridge. I don`t know
if I`ve ever seen a longwave pattern this persistent during the
cool season over the CONUS in my entire career 20+ yr career. This
is now 4.5 months. WSW or SW flow will cont to dominate over
NEB/KS.

Wed a shrtwv trof will be rotating thru the base of the NW USA
trof. It will circulate into the Nrn Plns thru Fri...but still
lower the heights a bit here. Other than that...no perturbations
of significance until the Wrn trof temporarily dislodges and
heads E toward the rgn next Tue.

Surface: The cold front referenced above will slide thru the CWA
Thu...with Canadian high pres sinking into the Nrn Plns Fri. This
high will slowly drift E of the Nrn/Cntrl Plns Sat. Return flow
will dvlp and strengthen Sun with pres beginning to fall in the
lee of the Rckys. Low pres will then organize over CO Mon with a
strong warm front fcst to form and lift NE acrs the CWA Mon
afternoon. The CO low is fcst to move NE acrs the CWA Mon night
with its wk cool front following in trail Tue.

Temps: Thu will be a transition day with temps cooler than Wed.
Fri will be the coolest day of the next 7. Temps will rebound this
wknd and will be back to warmer than normal Sun...with much
warmer than normal temps Mon-Tue.

Precip: No systems to bring big precip totals...but some minor
amts will be psbl. A few shwrs...possibly with some rumbles of
thunder...could move in N of I-80 Wed eve. Low stratus then
invades behind the cool front. With all the SW winds...mid-lvl
mstr will be hard to come by. Believe any precip that might fall
from late Wed night thru Thu night will be light drzl. Temps might
become just cold enough for some light frzg drzl late Thu night
into Fri AM. Only the GFS suggests some possibility for seeder-
feeder processes Thu night into Fri...with mid-lvl generated ice
crystals possible generating a touch of very light snow.

The fcst has a slight chance of shwrs/tstms Sun night into Mon.
This looks doubtful to me as it`s based primarily on GFS QPF. But
if you look at the soundings...they`re capped. Sfc dwpts in the
50s are fcst to advect N into the area...underneath the EML. The
12Z EC has a bullseye of QPF over the Sandhills Sun night...
generated by WAA associated with the low-lvl jet. However...it`s
an outlier and doesn`t have ensemble support.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the
period. Main thing to watch for is LLWS tonight, in the ball park
of 45-50 kts, that could last through the early morning hours
tomorrow until daytime mixing kicks in. Model soundings show
mixing to around 850 mb is possible tomorrow afternoon, which
could bring gusts to around 20 mph down to the sfc.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Shawkey