Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 150813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
313 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019


Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

- Snow Showers Ending This Morning

- System Passes By to the South Monday into Monday Night

- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Colder Tuesday into Wednesday

- Dryer Through the Rest of the Week


.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Precipitation has transitioned over to snow this morning with
light accumulations already being seen on top of an icy glaze from
last night`s freezing drizzle. Only light snow accumulations of
one inch or less are expected before snow ends by the late
morning. Highest accumulations will be along and west of US-131
and north of I-96. Slick roads can be expected due light snow in
addition to any residual glazing of ice from freezing drizzle last

For the system Monday into Monday night, model trends continue to
suggest a more southerly track, yielding most of the higher snow
totals well to our south and east. That being said, it is still
within the realm of possibility that areas and south of I-94 may
see light snow accumulation of less than an inch by Tuesday
morning, particularly near the Jackson area.

By Tuesday, the flow turns northwesterly as an upper level trough
digs into the Great Lakes. Favorable conditions will support lake
effect snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday as 850mb temperatures
drop into the negative teens and low level moisture increases.
Light snowfall accumulations will be possible, leading to some
travel impacts for lakeshore counties Tuesday into Wednesday

Lake effect snow diminishes Wednesday afternoon, then conditions
turn quiet to end the week. We will see a break in precipitation
into next weekend, with more mild temperatures in the mid 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Freezing drizzle should begin to switch over to snow within the
next few hours if it has not yet done so. After that, snow
showers should be more prevalent for lakeshore areas, including
MKG and GRR and AZO. Meanwhile current ceilings are just above
IFR, but it is possible we may see some sites drop below 1000
feet this morning. By mid-morning snow showers will taper off and
ceilings should begin to open back up, reaching VFR criteria near
the afternoon.


Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Hazardous small craft conditions continue this morning. High
pressure will move in later today leading to improved conditions
with weaker winds and lower waves. Quiet conditions will continue
until Tuesday as winds turn northwesterly and build waves towards
5 to 8 feet through Wednesday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ844>849.



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