Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

-A few light showers possible through Tuesday, chilly

-Sunny and breezy Wednesday, slightly warmer

-Chance of rain Thursday, mainly south


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

-- A few light showers possible through Tuesday, chilly --

Strong swly upr level jet stretching from the southwest U.S. to
the GrtLks Rgn will continue to send considerable cloudiness our
way through Tuesday. The clouds will hold high temps in the 40s.
Chances of rain are not the greatest due to dry air in the lower

The best chance of light showers tonight and Monday is around
Ludington based on extrapolation of upstream precip as well as
location of best divergence aloft related to a coupled jet
structure aloft. There is also the possibility of a northerly flow
lake effect band impacting this area. Still can`t rule out a few
snowflakes mixing in, mainly in the overnight to early morning
period when coolest sfc temps are present.

On Tuesday whatever remains of that lake effect band should move
more onshore as the low level flow turns westerly, but will
probably dissipate as it does so.

-- Sunny and breezy Wednesday, slightly warmer --

Model RH progs continue to suggest a sunny day on Wednesday but a
tightening pressure gradient between a sfc high to our south and
a sfc low tracking east toward Hudson Bay should result in breezy
conditions developing. Gusts to 25 mph from the southwest appear
likely but that flow also pushes in slightly warmer air with highs
of 50-55 expected.

-- Chance of rain Thursday, mainly south --

Tropical Storm/Hrcn Zeta will be lifting north from the Gulf mid
week as the upper low ejects east/northeast from TX.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance has been indicating the
possibility of the deformation zone of this merging system
impacting srn Lwr MI - at least the nrn fringes.

Our model blend currently has low chance pops from I-96 south
Thursday, but if a more northern trend develops, pops will need
to be raised and expanded north of I-96.

Once that system goes by it looks dry with a warming trend. Highs
next weekend may get well into the 50s with dry conditions for


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

The first half of this forecast period will be quiet, with only
mid/high clouds in place. Later this afternoon, we will see some
3-4k clouds come in from the south and west. The I-94 terminals
and KMKG will see these sooner. We do not expect any precipitation
from these, as rain through this evening should remain north of
the forecast terminals.

We will see rain chances arrive after 08z from the west as a small
batch of showers moves in. It looks like all of the sites will see
a 3 hr or so window of some light rain showers. These will be
accompanied by MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Can not rule out an
isolated patch of IFR, but that will be the exception rather than
the rule. MVFR ceilings will then persist through the end of this
forecast period.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

It now appears that the northerly flow on Monday may increase
substantially in the afternoon and lead to conditions hazardous
to small craft. The other timeframe of concern is late Tuesday
night into Wednesday when strong southwest flow should also result
in hazardous conditions.




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