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000
FXUS63 KGRR 080751
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
351 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Short Term/Long Term/Marine/FireWeather

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

- Smoke -

The HRRR smoke model zoomed into the Chicago-Detroit zone shows
quite a bit of smoke in place today when looking at vertically
integrated smoke off the 05z run. So, we are expecting a very
hazy sky with fairly opaque conditions. Near surface smoke is seen
to come a go a bit through the day, so expecting 4 to 7 statute
mile visibilities in haze. The hourly AQI in Grand Rapids at 100am
was 171 which is quite high. We smelled smoke in Grand Rapids
yesterday afternoon and evening and that may occur again today.
Can see things getting worse for us tonight into Friday as both
new fires have cropped up north of Lake Huron and the flow goes
more northeast. Therefore, the fires both in Northern Ontario and
in Quebec will be pushing smoke our direction. Haze will continue
as will unhealthy air. An Air Quality Alert is out for portions of
the area already.

- Mainly dry conditions -

We had a bit of a surprise shower yesterday evening drift south
through the CWA. This was not a surprise to the HREF though which
is the gold standard for quite a few things but certainly
convection forecast. The 4hr max reflectivity showed this shower
nicely off the 12z run. Tonight`s 00z run shows some convergence
and the potential for a few showers in our northeast CWA up
towards Mt. Pleasant and Alma. At this point have maintained a dry
forecast but we will be keeping an eye out for a few showers in
our northeast and eastern CWA.

Otherwise dry and near normal temperatures today through tomorrow.



.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

- Dry weather through Saturday afternoon -

Sfc ridging will result in fair wx through Saturday afternoon. The
elevated fire risk will continue given antecedent very dry
conditions across our area. Temperatures through then will be
seasonable for this time of year.

- Chance for showers Saturday night through early next week -

The wx pattern will become a little cooler and unsettled Sunday
through Tuesday as an upper low closes off over our region. Several
upper disturbances pinwheeling around the upper low will bring
relatively best chances for showers through the period. Instability
continues to look weak but isolated convection is possible as a
result of weak instability and diurnal heating.

Latest GEFS/ECMWF ensembles support potential for three quarters of
an inch to an inch of rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday. A
gradual trend upward a bit in ensemble qpf has been noted the past
48 hours which seems reasonable given the evolution of the upper
level pattern.

However a very large variability in rainfall amounts across our area
is expected given this type pattern. Rainfall amounts could range
from under a quarter of an inch in some spots to around two inches
or greater where rain showers are heaviest/most persistent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Mainly clear skies are expected the next 24 hours. The only issue
will continue to be smoke and haze which are currently affecting
visibility. GRR, LAN and JXN are all showing MVFR visibilities due
to smoke/haze and this will continue through the night. It appears
via smoke modeling that we will continue to be affect by the smoke
the rest of the night and through the morning hours. New fires
north of Lake Huron may add to our smoke into the afternoon and
evening. Winds will pick up out of the north and northwest again
today at 10-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Yesterday`s Small Craft and Beach Hazards worked out pretty well
with all buoys peaking in the 3-5 foot range. The Port Sheldon and
South Haven buoys peaked at 4.3 feet in the late afternoon and
evening as expected.

As for today...have decided to hold off on Small Craft and Beach
Hazards Statements today. The wind is not as hot as it was
yesterday and think conditions may be a bit too marginal for
issuance of both headlines. The area of concern today will likely
be Ottawa County in the late afternoon and evening. Could see
Holland State Park specifically being the place of concern as the
north flow peaks in that area late in the day. If the day shift
feels they need to upgrade they can but at this point, think the
waves stay more in the 2-4 foot range vs 3-5.

Winds look even lighter on Friday so we should be good tomorrow as
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Will continue with another day of Red Flag Warnings across
Central Lower Michigan. The three criteria for a Red Flag
Warning...1) RH below 25 percent, 2) temperatures above 75 and
3) winds at 20 mph are all close or will be met. The one factor
that is a bit questionable is the wind, but 12-18 knots are in the
profile at all BUFKIT sites across Central Lower Michigan. So,
given criteria that is close or met combined with extreme fire
danger per the conifer fire danger variable from the Great Lakes
Fire and Fuels website the Warning continues. The warning is also
based on discussions with the fire agencies as was the case in
prior days.

We may do it all over again on Friday with similar conditions in
place.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MIZ037>040-043-044.

LM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Duke
FIRE WEATHER...Duke
MARINE...Duke