Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 021152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
652 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021


Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

- Mainly Dry 7 Day Forecast

- Seasonable Temperatures into the Weekend

- Possible Pattern Change Early Next Week


.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

-- Mainly Dry 7 Day Forecast --

A mainly dry forecast is expected the next 7 days. The very small
opportunities for any precipitation would come in a few places
within the forecast. The first being tonight into Wednesday with
a cold front dropping south through the area. The front is
moisture starved and we expected it to come through dry. The next
chance would be Friday night into Saturday with a weak shortwave
dropping southeast through the Great Lakes. Again, moisture is
limited and we expect no precipitation at this time. The final
opportunity is out at the end of the forecast period Sunday night
into Monday night. The operational GFS and ECMWF have timing
differences with a wave moving through the area. This is not
surprising 6-7 days into the forecast. The precipitation looks
fairly light. Would tend to lean toward the slower ECWMF here
which would bring a small chance for rain next Monday night.
Bottom line is pretty much a dry forecast through the upcoming

-- Seasonable Temperatures into the Weekend --

Temperatures through the next 7 days look to be at least
seasonable if not above normal. 850mb temperatures are on the
order of -7C to +3C which is pretty close to what you would expect
over the Great Lakes this time of year. This should result in
quite a bit of high temperatures in the 40s through the weekend.
We will be warm enough aloft to keep lake stratocumulus at bay, so
we should see quite a bit of sunshine. We have eroded much of the
snow cover across the area, especially from I-96 to the south. We
will continue to erode snow pack, river ice and lake ice as we
move forward. The warming temperatures and increasing sun angle
should even begin to erode the large snow piles around the area in
the coming 7-10 days.

-- Possible Pattern Change Early Next Week --

It appears as though deep southwesterly flow begins to take shape
early next week, stretching into mid next week as well. Early next
week 50s look very reasonable with the gulf opening up. Any
remaining snow will really be on the melt given those
temperatures. Next Tuesday and Wednesday, PWAT values increasing
to around 1.25 inches. Surface dew points may eclipse 50F. Even if
it ends up being a decent rain event next week with a low moving
through the area, much of the snow and ice will be gone so we are
not expecting major impacts or issues at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

 VFR will dominate the weather pattern through the day with upper
level winds mixing into the dry air by mid morning. Expect gusts
up to 20kts again which will continue into the early to mid
Tuesday evening hours. The weak front on Wednesday will bring a
chance for MVFR cigs to MKG and GRR between 09Z to 12Z. No
precipitation is expected.


Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Stronger southwest flow develops over Lake Michigan this afternoon
into tonight. We have issued a Gale Warning for our northern two
zones up near Big and Little Sable Points. Southwest flow should
push into gale force with 50 knots in place at 2,000ft tonight.
Not all of that will mix to the surface, but gales should be
reached. The Gale will run from midday today into the overnight
hours tonight. South of the Gale we have issued a Small Craft
Advisory for our southern 4 zones, from St. Joe to Whitehall.
Winds will tone down a bit into Wednesday with winds and waves
falling below SCA criteria. Waves will likely push to around 10
feet up near the points at the height of the wind tonight.


LM...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Wednesday for

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for LMZ844>847.



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