Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 261035 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 635 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist over the Southeast through the middle of next week. This will limit daily shower and thunderstorm activity and aid in promoting near record heat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 635 AM EDT Sunday: Mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere will burn off quickly this morning. A strong ridge axis will persist over the southeast through the near-term period. The southeast upper ridge appears to flatten a bit today in most of the models, but low level thicknesses remain just as warm as observed Saturday. Expect that vertical profiles will be more capped off to deep convection during the afternoon due to warm low level temps and high LFC levels. Will keep the forecast dry and temperatures very warm. Mountain valleys may warm into the lower 90s, with plenty of mid 90s east of the mountains and upper 90s in the southern piedmont. This puts record highs in jeopardy once again. Slight dewpoint mixing from low end gusty winds due to a redeveloping lee trough, should keep heat index values capped out in the 95 to 100 range across the southeast half of the area. No Heat Advisory products are thus planned for this afternoon. Dry and mild conditions will continue tonight. There may be more in the way of lingering clouds and winds across the mountains inhibiting valley fog to a minimum. Lows remain around 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday: Little change in the weather pattern is expected in the short term Monday through Tuesday night as the oppressive ridge remains overhead, supporting mostly sunny skies. This combined with weak downsloping northwesterly flow will bring continued near record highs through the period. However, the downsloping flow will keep dewpoints and as a result heat indices generally peaking near the actual high temps largely in the 90s. There is an outside chance that remnant outflow boundaries from thunderstorms to our north could help to briefly initiate shower or thunderstorm activity across northern areas despite limited moisture and mid level capping across the region. Take steps to beat the heat by avoiding the hottest part of the day when possible, hydrating and finding shade when outside && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sunday: The end of the heat wave is in sight during the extended period as long wave troughing over the Central U.S. finally suppresses the ridge out of the region by late in the week. One more day of near record is can`t be ruled out for Wednesday before a combination of increasing clouds and lowering heights/thicknesses allows high temperatures to fall to near 90 east of the mountains with 80s common across the mountains. Flow at low levels and aloft will turn around to the southwest allowing for gradually increasing moisture and less in the way of capping as the ridge loses grip over the region. This will likely support isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across the mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening, becoming more widespread sometime Thursday into Friday in response to a short-wave trough and associated cool front pushing through the region. Model guidance has trended more potent with this system and depending on timing, a few strong or severe thunderstorms may be possible. The stronger system is now able to push the front through most of if not the entire region, possibly allowing for a break in the activity sometime next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period, after the mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere burns off. W to NW winds this morning become WSW to SW for the afternoon as a lee trough develops again, with some low-end gusts possible especially across the Upstate. KAVL will see N to NW wind through the period with afternoon gusts. High based cumulus develops again this afternoon which diminishes during the evening. Capping will be stronger today and the warm and dry profiles should keep all locations free of showers and thunderstorms. Outlook: Mountain valley fog will be possible each morning through the week. Diurnal convective chances will be limited due to the persistent upper ridge pattern remaining in place. The ridge will begin to break down on Thursday and Friday with shower and thunderstorm chances returning from the west. Confidence Table... 10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 05-26 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 88 1989 59 1956 65 1982 34 1925 1916 1953 KCLT 96 1926 64 1992 73 1998 45 1979 1963 KGSP 96 1953 60 1963 70 1989 45 1979 1926 1953 1912 RECORDS FOR 05-27 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 93 1890 55 1961 68 1991 36 1961 KCLT 96 1916 60 1901 77 1916 41 1961 KGSP 98 1916 65 1963 72 1991 43 1961 RECORDS FOR 05-28 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 91 1941 57 1946 67 1991 35 1961 1914 KCLT 97 1941 58 1968 72 1991 42 1961 1896 KGSP 100 1916 62 1901 71 1991 43 1907 1891 1984 1941 RECORDS FOR 05-29 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 92 1941 53 1992 67 1991 40 1894 KCLT 98 1941 58 1992 74 1914 48 1894 1971 KGSP 98 1941 54 1992 70 1991 44 1901 1944 1941 RECORDS FOR 05-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 91 1969 56 1984 67 1941 40 1893 KCLT 95 1918 64 1930 73 1991 47 1884 1898 1982 KGSP 95 1914 65 1934 72 1941 45 1893 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...Munroe LONG TERM...Munroe AVIATION...RWH CLIMATE...

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