National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KGSP 261035
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will persist over the Southeast through the
middle of next week. This will limit daily shower and thunderstorm
activity and aid in promoting near record heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday: Mountain valley fog and patchy fog
elsewhere will burn off quickly this morning. A strong ridge axis
will persist over the southeast through the near-term period. The
southeast upper ridge appears to flatten a bit today in most of the
models, but low level thicknesses remain just as warm as observed
Saturday. Expect that vertical profiles will be more capped off to
deep convection during the afternoon due to warm low level temps and
high LFC levels. Will keep the forecast dry and temperatures very
warm. Mountain valleys may warm into the lower 90s, with plenty of
mid 90s east of the mountains and upper 90s in the southern
piedmont. This puts record highs in jeopardy once again. Slight
dewpoint mixing from low end gusty winds due to a redeveloping lee
trough, should keep heat index values capped out in the 95 to 100
range across the southeast half of the area. No Heat Advisory
products are thus planned for this afternoon.

Dry and mild conditions will continue tonight. There may be more in
the way of lingering clouds and winds across the mountains
inhibiting valley fog to a minimum. Lows remain around 10 degrees
above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday: Little change in the weather pattern is
expected in the short term Monday through Tuesday night as the
oppressive ridge remains overhead, supporting mostly sunny skies.
This combined with weak downsloping northwesterly flow will bring
continued near record highs through the period. However, the
downsloping flow will keep dewpoints and as a result heat indices
generally peaking near the actual high temps largely in the 90s.
There is an outside chance that remnant outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms to our north could help to briefly initiate shower or
thunderstorm activity across northern areas despite limited moisture
and mid level capping across the region. Take steps to beat the heat
by avoiding the hottest part of the day when possible, hydrating and
finding shade when outside

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sunday: The end of the heat wave is in sight during the
extended period as long wave troughing over the Central U.S. finally
suppresses the ridge out of the region by late in the week. One more
day of near record is can`t be ruled out for Wednesday before a
combination of increasing clouds and lowering heights/thicknesses
allows high temperatures to fall to near 90 east of the mountains
with 80s common across the mountains. Flow at low levels and aloft
will turn around to the southwest allowing for gradually increasing
moisture and less in the way of capping as the ridge loses grip over
the region. This will likely support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity across the mountains Wednesday afternoon and
evening, becoming more widespread sometime Thursday into Friday in
response to a short-wave trough and associated cool front pushing
through the region. Model guidance has trended more potent with this
system and depending on timing, a few strong or severe thunderstorms
may be possible. The stronger system is now able to push the front
through most of if not the entire region, possibly allowing for a
break in the activity sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period, after the mountain
valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere burns off. W to NW winds this
morning become WSW to SW for the afternoon as a lee trough develops
again, with some low-end gusts possible especially across the
Upstate. KAVL will see N to NW wind through the period with
afternoon gusts. High based cumulus develops again this afternoon
which diminishes during the evening. Capping will be stronger today
and the warm and dry profiles should keep all locations free of
showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook: Mountain valley fog will be possible each morning through
the week. Diurnal convective chances will be limited due to the
persistent upper ridge pattern remaining in place. The ridge will
begin to break down on Thursday and Friday with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning from the west.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 05-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1989     59 1956     65 1982     34 1925
                1916                    1953
   KCLT      96 1926     64 1992     73 1998     45 1979
                            1963
   KGSP      96 1953     60 1963     70 1989     45 1979
                1926                    1953
                1912



RECORDS FOR 05-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1890     55 1961     68 1991     36 1961
   KCLT      96 1916     60 1901     77 1916     41 1961
   KGSP      98 1916     65 1963     72 1991     43 1961



RECORDS FOR 05-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      91 1941     57 1946     67 1991     35 1961
                1914
   KCLT      97 1941     58 1968     72 1991     42 1961
                                        1896
   KGSP     100 1916     62 1901     71 1991     43 1907
                            1891        1984
                                        1941



RECORDS FOR 05-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1941     53 1992     67 1991     40 1894
   KCLT      98 1941     58 1992     74 1914     48 1894
                            1971
   KGSP      98 1941     54 1992     70 1991     44 1901
                                        1944
                                        1941



RECORDS FOR 05-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      91 1969     56 1984     67 1941     40 1893
   KCLT      95 1918     64 1930     73 1991     47 1884
                1898                    1982
   KGSP      95 1914     65 1934     72 1941     45 1893

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...