Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 081843 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A return to more typical isolated to scattered summertime thunderstorm activity is expected over the weekend as modest drying arrives from the west. Deeper moisture will gradually return early in the week and support a more active pattern from Tuesday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 240 PM EDT Saturday: Conditions have been fairly quiet this afternoon with temperatures climbing well into the upper 80s given plenty of insolation. Temps are expected to rise a few more degrees before capping off for the day. Even though showers continue to develop across the FA but struggle to hold together, do expect isolated showers and thunderstorms through this evening with available moisture, little instability, and weak troughing. Could not entirely rule out a strong/severe storm, but confidence remains fairly low attm. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected tonight with fcst soundings indicating the return of low stratus/fog early Sunday morning, mainly across the mountain valleys. Min temps will fall to near normal. With ridging aloft, weak sfc high pressure will continue to allow for drier air to infiltrate into the area on Sunday. However, with weak trough in place over the Piedmont, could not entirely rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge given limited available moisture and daytime heating. Max temps will climb a few degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 135 PM EDT Saturday: The short range begins with with an ill-defined upper pattern and weak flow thru the column. This will allow for persistent warm mid-levels Mon, which will help suppress afternoon convection. Isolated to sct storms are probable across the mtns as an h5 s/w ejects out of the Midwest and crosses the wrn zones by the early evening. A quiet Mon night as soundings show decoupling and virtually nil elCAPE. On Tue...another low flow day as BL winds remain w/ly and aide in limiting convection outside the mtns. There looks to be another round of vort energy crossing the mtns by the late Tue afternoon...so relatively high chance PoPs will be held across the wrn zones again. Soundings indicate limited sbCAPE, yet a few storms may become stg/svr, while possible slow moving or training cells across the high terrain could create hydro issues. Overall...the suppressive environ will support abv normal temps by a couple degrees, while mins are be maintained right arnd normal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 155 PM EDT Saturday: Not much change made to the ext range fcst. The guidance is still in decent agreement with the ulvl pattern becoming a little more conducive to deep convec outside the mtns each day...mainly aided by better llvl GOM moisture. There will likely be an active sfc bndry to the east of the FA Wed afternoon, yet better overall coverage is anticipated as instability increases from earlier in the week. By Wed evening...a well defined h5 trof will traverse the OH/TN valleys and push a cold front to the NC mtns. This front looks to broaden out and stall across the FA Thu thru the ext range and elevate PWATS to arnd 2 inches, while increasing the potential for more widespread tstms each afternoon. With increased deep-layered moisture and convec cloudiness, max temps will revert back to normal levels each day, or arnd 90 F across the non/mtns and m80s across the mtn valleys.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and Elsewhere: Aside from lingering MVFR cigs at KCLT which are expected to improve over the next hour, VFR prevails at the TAF sites this afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight, as noted by VCSH/VCTS and/or TEMPO groups. Fcst soundings continue to suggest fog and low stratus late overnight and early Sunday morning, mainly confined to the mountain valleys. Given lower confidence on any activity outside of the mountains, have kept VFR at TAF sites for now, MVFR/IFR at KAVL. Expect conditions to improve after daybreak. Outlook: Isolated diurnal convection will persist through Monday with increasing chances returning by mid-week. Morning fog/stratus restrictions will also be possible each morning, especially over the usual mountain valleys. Otherwise expect VFR. Confidence Table... 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 93% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% Med 61% High 94% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 90% High 88% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 87% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...12 SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...12

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