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000
FXUS62 KGSP 080350
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1050 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Carolinas northeastern
Georgia into much of next week allowing the dry weather to continue.
This weather pattern will lead to warmer and above normal high temps
most of next week. A cold front will approach from the west Friday
into the weekend leading to the potential for increased rain
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM EST Sunday: Mostly clear skies and light winds should
prevail thru the overnight and into tomorrow morning. Heights slowly
rise thru the period as the upper trof moves east of the area and upper
ridging moves into the MS Valley. At the surface, the pressure gradient
relaxes as the center of high pressure moves over the spine of the
Appalachians later tonight and southeast of the mountains on Monday.
May be some mountain wave cirrus this evening but skies will generally
be clear. With dry conditions and diminishing winds, lows should be
around 10 degrees below normal. Sunny skies expected again on Monday.
A developing lee trof will shift winds outside of the mtns to a SWLY
direction, while winds remain NWLY over the mtns. Overall, winds will
be lighter on Monday, but some low-end gusts may develop across the
higher terrain. Highs will be about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. With
the very dry air mass remaining in place, critical RH values are
expected once again. With the lighter winds however, expect Monday`s
Fire Danger Statement to be limited to NE GA where only one wx element
is needed for issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: Upper ridging will continue to build in
from the west at the start of the short-term. Broad sfc high
will set up shop over the Carolinas and should help minimize
any fire critical wind gusts. Higher thicknesses aloft will bump
temperatures 5-10 degrees above average through the period starting
on Tuesday. Despite an increase in dew point temperatures overall,
the dewpoint depression stills allows for critical RH levels
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. See the Fire Wx discussion below
for more information on the current outlook. Model guidance picks
up on some shortwave energy that moves in from the west Tuesday
afternoon, which will push scattered mid to high level clouds into
the area and could alter Max T`s slightly, but still remaining
very warm. Expect Tuesday night to remain mostly clear as Min T`s
remain near-normal for this time of the year. On Wednesday, the sfc
high gradually propagates offshore and brings a return flow into
the area. A true low-level moisture transport will be hard to come
by due to the very dry airmass and an upper high over the Gulf of
Mexico nosing into the cwa to help bring in subsidence aloft. With
mostly clear skies and fairly high heights, expect Wednesday to be
even a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday, with a good portion of
the area outside of the mountains climbing into the 70s for Max T`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 pm Sunday: Forecast confidence will be high at the start
of the extended forecast period as high pressure continues to extend
into the southeastern CONUS. This low amplitude ridging will lead to
continued dry conditions on Thursday. Forecast confidence decreases
significantly the rest of the extended period. Models continue to
struggle with the split flow pattern that develops in the western
United States at the beginning of the short term forecast. This
split flow remains into the long range forecast period and is due in
part to a Four Corners low pressure system tracking across the
Desert Southwest. The cold front is likely to stall west of the
forecast area due to this Four Corners low. Currently most models
pick up on the cold front stalling; however, they do not agree on
how long the front would stall to the west. Currently the ECMWF and
Canadian have the front approaching the Appalachians Friday with the
front pushing through on Saturday. However, the GFS keeps the front
stalled well to our west much of the weekend and pushes the FROPA
through on Sunday. Since high pressure should remain extended into
most of the forecast area on Friday, most of the CWA should expect
dry conditions. However, slight rain chances are possible on Friday
for the far western zones of the NC mtns as the cold front
approaches from the west. Saturday into Sunday rain chances will
remain in the forecast for most locations as the front tries to push
into the area. High temps Thursday into Friday should be around 10
degrees above normal, becoming near normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue thru the 00z
taf period. Any lingering stratocu has dissipated over the past
few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Thus, mostly clear
skies should prevail thru the overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Patchy cirrus is expected again tomorrow aftn/evening across the
region. Winds will remain light and favor a NLY direction thru the
overnight and into the morning. They will eventually pick back up
from the SW tomorrow afternoon, but weaken by the early evening.
At KAVL, winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru tomorrow morning.
They will eventually back to a WLY and then SWLY direction by
the late afternoon and weaken as they do so.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will remain in control of the wx pattern
thru the week with VFR conditions prevailing.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The very dry air mass remains in place across the area on Monday,
but winds will be lighter overall than Sunday. There may be some
low-end gusts across the mountains, but they should remain below
critical levels. That said, temperatures will be warmer, and even
with slightly higher dew points, RH values should fall below 25%
across much of the area. Expect another Fire Danger Statement will
be needed for NE GA where only one weather element is needed for
issuance. Statements not expected for the Carolinas, however land
management coordination may be needed. Looks like moisture recovery
will be delayed on Tuesday, so with even warmer temps developing,
RH values likely fall below 25% once again, but with light winds.
Looks like moisture recovery begins on Wed, but with the warmup
continuing, any slow down in recovery could lead to critical RH
values.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JPT
FIRE WEATHER...RWH/JPT