Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 091359 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 959 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure lingers across the Carolinas today. A warm front will lift across the forecast area on Sunday before a cold front tracks over the region on Monday. These frontal boundaries will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late this weekend into early next week. The cold front looks to stall just south of the forecast area after Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 958 AM Friday: No major changes to the forecast this morning. Temps, dewpoints, and winds are largely on track...and clear skies continue across the board amid building high pressure. After the short wave moves off to the east this morning, the upper low over the Northeast will drift away to the east and heights will rise over the Carolinas. Upstream ridging will allow a sfc high to build in from the northwest today with continued unseasonably dry air. Temps will continue to run below normal, generally on the order of one category (i.e. three degrees or so), under a mostly sunny sky. Tonight, the center of the high should build down over the mtns, allowing for clear sky and mostly calm wind. Low temps will be similar to this morning in spite of the good radiational cooling conditions owing to the modification of the air mass. Air Quality Alerts (Code Orange) will again be in effect for today, but only for Mecklenburg, Union (NC), and Davie counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday: The upper-level low located over the Northeast will slowly lift northeastward Saturday into Saturday night, allowing upper flow to gradually turn quasi-zonal over the Carolinas. At the sfc, dry high pressure will be located over the Carolinas Saturday morning before gradually pushing southeastward into the western Atlantic Saturday afternoon. The western periphery of the sfc ridge will continue to extend into the Carolinas Saturday night leading to continued dry conditions. Highs on Saturday will be a near climo to a few degrees above climo. Lows Saturday night will be a few degrees above climo. Sunday morning an upper trough will track across the TN Valley before pushing into the western Carolinas and northeast GA Sunday afternoon and evening. Shortwaves embedded within the upper flow will track overhead the CWA Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night. At the sfc, a warm front associated with a low pressure system tracking eastward across the Midwest will lift northward across the Carolinas throughout the day Sunday. We should see cloud cover ramp up Sunday morning and early afternoon ahead of the precip. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from SW to NE Sunday morning into Sunday evening. 00Z global model guidance is not in good agreement regarding the timing of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS and ECMWF are the faster solutions (morning and afternoon start time) while the NAM and Canadian are the slower solutions (afternoon and evening start time). Have higher PoPs (categorical to likely) across the western half of the CWA with lower PoPs (likely to chance) across the eastern zones Sunday into Sunday night. With PWATs ranging from 1.7 to 1.9 inches east of the mtns, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. However, dry antecedent conditions should help prevent any widespread flooding issues. Cloud cover and precip should keep highs near climo to a few degrees below climo. Lows Sunday night will be 3-6 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover and precip. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday: A cold front associated with the low pressure system tracking across the eastern Great Lakes region will be push out of eastern TN into the western Carolinas early Monday morning. The FROPA will continue to push east across the western Carolinas throughout the day Monday. This will act to keep shower and thunderstorm chances around to start the workweek. Have likely to categorical PoPs across the entire CWA on Monday, with the highest PoPs across NC and the SC/GA mtns. With PWAT values lower compared to Sunday, (1.5 to 1.7 inches east of the mtns), the locally heavy rainfall threat should be low. 0-6 km shear values will be higher compared to Sunday, with 00Z guidance showing values from 25 to 35 kts along and ahead of the FROPA. So, we could see the potential for more organized convection with the cold front. Should see shower and thunderstorms exit the CWA from west to east Monday evening into Monday night as the FROPA pushes south and east of the CWA. The front looks to remain well to our south and east on Tuesday leading to drier conditions. However, the front looks to reactivate and lift northward mid to late week. This would act to keep shower and thunderstorm chances around for the fcst area. With models not in good agreement regarding the position and movement of the FROPA, capped PoPs to chance starting on Wednesday and through the rest of the long term. Temps should generally be near climo to a a few degrees below climo through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. A mid-level cloud trapped underneath an inversion will slowly mix out through the middle part of the morning as a short wave aloft moves past. Wind should stay light mainly from the N thru mid-morning. A dry air mass remains in place today, so not much in the way of clouds are expected, and certainly not any precip. Wind will stay light N to NNE. The center of high pressure should move down over the mtns this evening, so expect wind to go light/variable or calm with sunset, along with clear sky. Outlook: Dry high pressure remains in place Saturday. A cold front brings a return of convection and possible restrictions Sunday and Monday. Tuesday more uncertain but convective chances could continue. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...MPR/PM SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.