Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 231757 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 157 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move slowly across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia tonight. In the front`s wake, high pressure will bring cooler and drier air over the region. Below normal temperatures and low precipitation chances are expected from Wednesday through the end of the week. Chances for afternoon thunderstorms will return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM: The sfc cold front was last analyzed pushing across the Piedmont, just entering the I-85 corridor. A fairly solid line of showers with a few embedded tstms is along the front, and has been producing some pockets of around 40 mph gusts in the strongest convection. This line will be entering slightly greater instability (sbcape around 2000 J/kg), and after collaboration with SPC a Severe Tstm Watch has been issued that includes Union, NC. The convection should be exiting the area within the next few hours. Tonight, all precip should come to an end this evening and skies will become mostly clear by daybreak Wednesday. Lingering mixing with low-level CAA and dry air filtering in behind the front should preclude any fog development, except perhaps in some of the more sheltered NC mountain valleys. Min temps tonight will be 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Weather on Wednesday will be more like what you`d expect in early fall across the region, as Canadian high pressure builds in under a deep upper level trough. Dewpts will fall into 50s to lower 60s and temps will only top out in the 70s mountains and lower to mid 80s piedmont under mostly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: Dry and cooler surface high pressure will be well into the southeast by Wednesday night, and will remain over the area Thursday and into Friday as well. A large upper anticyclone will remain over the desert SW and prevent much progression as far as the upper pattern through the end of the work week, the the upper trough over the eastern CONUS will flatten a bit as the Bermuda high retreats eastward. This will allow temperatures to moderate a bit through Friday, though max and min temps will stay a few degrees below normal with much lower and much more comfortable RH levels expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: The extended period will feature continued moderation back to a more summertime feel and pattern for the CWA. As the dry surface high shifts off the coast of the Carolinas, the upper anticyclone over the desert SW will retrograde, allowing for some bagginess in the upper trough to develop across the area while still keeping the more persistent westerlies to our north. A few upper level impulses will move through the upper flow over the weekend, though will likely not produce much in the way of QPF due to a lack of substantial moisture return. The Bermuda high edging back westward early next week will allow more deep-layer moisture to infiltrate the southeast, gradually increasing chances of diurnal convection for the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front was analyzed just passing through the KHKY/KGSP/KGMU sites at time of 18z TAF issuance, and will continue to push southeastward thru KAND and KAND over the next 1-2 hours. The front is accompanied by a fairly solid line of SHRA with a few embedded TSRA. This will be handled with tempos thru 19- 20z. Can see some gusty winds and brief 2-6sm vsby with the downpours. Behind the front, still plenty of low to mid VFR level clouds that will gradually scatter out thru the evening hours, as dry air filters in. N/NE winds will pick up for late aftn into early evening, weakening slightly overnight. They should stay up enough to preclude fog development, except in isolated spots. Winds up the valley should keep fog at bay in KAVL, but low stratus may develop. Confidence is too low to put a low cig there, but will put some brief sct004 before daybreak. Wednesday looks very quiet, with light NE winds continuing and only a few cu mainly over the KCLT area in the aftn. Outlook: Unusually dry and quiet weather for late July is expected to continue across the region for the rest of the week behind the front, with mostly if not entirely VFR. Confidence Table... 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z KCLT High 80% High 99% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 93% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 97% High 100% Med 77% High 92% KHKY High 82% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 95% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 97% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Carroll NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...Carroll LONG TERM...Carroll AVIATION...ARK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.