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994
FXUS62 KGSP 031031
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front drops south from the Great Lakes today bringing
drier weather for the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures
remain typical for the summertime season through the beginning of
next week. Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
chances return at the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 am: Leading edge of weak surface boundary attending
the passage of an upper level trough has pushed just S=>E of the
forecast area. In the wake of this boundary, lower theta-E air
has filtered into the NW half of the area, with surface dewpoints
in the lower/mid 60s observed across much of the mountains and
foothills. (Although this drying has not precluded development of
fog/low stratus in the NC mountain valleys of the TN border
counties. This drier air will continue to gradually filter through
the remainder of the CWA through the day, which will combine with
warming mid-level temps to result in robust diurnal instability
shunting south and east of the area this afternoon. Other than
perhaps some spotty showers over the southern mountains, diurnal
convection is not expected today. Temps are expected to be 0-2
degrees above climo through the period.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday: Independence Day and the weekend look to be
relatively pleasant for summer and fireworks. Flow aloft remains
broad as a weakening ridge over the central CONUS slides eastward.
In response, a surface high parks itself over the area and the
eastern portion of the country. Light surface winds turn more NE as
the high remains to the north of the CWA. With the high pressure,
much drier air filters into the area through the short term,
shunting most rain chances. At this time, PoPs remain unmentionable
for most of the areas east of the mountains with slight chance (15-
25%) during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday. With this time of
year, a stray shower especially over the mountains given the daytime
heating is possible, but confidence is very low given the amount of
subsidence aloft. By Saturday, there is much disagreement in the
models for whatever is attempting to form along the Carolina coast.
The GFS shows a classic fujiwhara effect as it forms two weak lows
fighting for survival around each other. Either way, the models DO
agree that the high pressure off to the north remains stubbornly in
place over the CWA and wards away the precip chances. So, nothing to
sweat about for the weekend. As for temperatures, expect the low 90s
with the heat index peaking a degree or two higher from the lower
dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thursday: Closing out the end of the holiday weekend
with much of the same weather pattern that it started with, quiet.
Guidance slowly shifts the high pressure at the surface off the
coastline to the north through most of Sunday, keeping a slight
chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the guidance
keeps the area of low pressure churning off the coastline and slowly
lifting it northeast through the end of the period. However, it
looks as though the general pattern will keep the rain away from the
CWA, at least from this system. By Monday and onward, long range
guidance shows a return to more typical summertime diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorm chances. The higher PoPs remain as usual
over the mountain areas. Meanwhile, toward the end of the period,
guidance does paint a picture of an amplifying ridge out west. In
response, a deepening trough looks to develop across the eastern
portion of the CONUS, blocking the potential heat dome out west from
moving overhead, at least for this forecast period. After Monday,
southerly surface moisture advection returns and increases the
dewpoints. Currently, guidance shows pockets of 100+ heat index in
the southern zones, including Charlotte by Tuesday onward.
Temperatures through the period look to slowly increase into next
week, but remain relatively typical for summertime.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are forecast at the TAF
sites through the period. An area of low stratus along the eastern
fringe of the Terminal Forecast Area is expected to remain east of
KCLT this morning, while areas of mountain valley fog/low stratus
are expected to remain confined to the valleys west and north of
KAVL. Drier/less unstable air is expected later today, which will
limit any diurnal convective coverage to "sparse-at-most." Thus,
no need to include any convective mention in the forecast. Light
NE winds expected through the day, becoming light/variable tonight
before returning to NE late Fri morning.

Outlook: Diurnal convection is expected to be inhibited into
the weekend, with at most isolated activity forecast through
Saturday. Convective coverage is expected to return to levels more
typical of early Summer Sunday/Monday. Fog and/or low stratus
possible each morning, mainly in the usual mountain valleys,
as well as near lakes and rivers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JDL