Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 080350 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1050 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Carolinas northeastern Georgia into much of next week allowing the dry weather to continue. This weather pattern will lead to warmer and above normal high temps most of next week. A cold front will approach from the west Friday into the weekend leading to the potential for increased rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1025 PM EST Sunday: Mostly clear skies and light winds should prevail thru the overnight and into tomorrow morning. Heights slowly rise thru the period as the upper trof moves east of the area and upper ridging moves into the MS Valley. At the surface, the pressure gradient relaxes as the center of high pressure moves over the spine of the Appalachians later tonight and southeast of the mountains on Monday. May be some mountain wave cirrus this evening but skies will generally be clear. With dry conditions and diminishing winds, lows should be around 10 degrees below normal. Sunny skies expected again on Monday. A developing lee trof will shift winds outside of the mtns to a SWLY direction, while winds remain NWLY over the mtns. Overall, winds will be lighter on Monday, but some low-end gusts may develop across the higher terrain. Highs will be about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. With the very dry air mass remaining in place, critical RH values are expected once again. With the lighter winds however, expect Monday`s Fire Danger Statement to be limited to NE GA where only one wx element is needed for issuance. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Sunday: Upper ridging will continue to build in from the west at the start of the short-term. Broad sfc high will set up shop over the Carolinas and should help minimize any fire critical wind gusts. Higher thicknesses aloft will bump temperatures 5-10 degrees above average through the period starting on Tuesday. Despite an increase in dew point temperatures overall, the dewpoint depression stills allows for critical RH levels Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. See the Fire Wx discussion below for more information on the current outlook. Model guidance picks up on some shortwave energy that moves in from the west Tuesday afternoon, which will push scattered mid to high level clouds into the area and could alter Max T`s slightly, but still remaining very warm. Expect Tuesday night to remain mostly clear as Min T`s remain near-normal for this time of the year. On Wednesday, the sfc high gradually propagates offshore and brings a return flow into the area. A true low-level moisture transport will be hard to come by due to the very dry airmass and an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico nosing into the cwa to help bring in subsidence aloft. With mostly clear skies and fairly high heights, expect Wednesday to be even a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday, with a good portion of the area outside of the mountains climbing into the 70s for Max T`s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 pm Sunday: Forecast confidence will be high at the start of the extended forecast period as high pressure continues to extend into the southeastern CONUS. This low amplitude ridging will lead to continued dry conditions on Thursday. Forecast confidence decreases significantly the rest of the extended period. Models continue to struggle with the split flow pattern that develops in the western United States at the beginning of the short term forecast. This split flow remains into the long range forecast period and is due in part to a Four Corners low pressure system tracking across the Desert Southwest. The cold front is likely to stall west of the forecast area due to this Four Corners low. Currently most models pick up on the cold front stalling; however, they do not agree on how long the front would stall to the west. Currently the ECMWF and Canadian have the front approaching the Appalachians Friday with the front pushing through on Saturday. However, the GFS keeps the front stalled well to our west much of the weekend and pushes the FROPA through on Sunday. Since high pressure should remain extended into most of the forecast area on Friday, most of the CWA should expect dry conditions. However, slight rain chances are possible on Friday for the far western zones of the NC mtns as the cold front approaches from the west. Saturday into Sunday rain chances will remain in the forecast for most locations as the front tries to push into the area. High temps Thursday into Friday should be around 10 degrees above normal, becoming near normal on Sunday. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue thru the 00z taf period. Any lingering stratocu has dissipated over the past few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Thus, mostly clear skies should prevail thru the overnight and into tomorrow morning. Patchy cirrus is expected again tomorrow aftn/evening across the region. Winds will remain light and favor a NLY direction thru the overnight and into the morning. They will eventually pick back up from the SW tomorrow afternoon, but weaken by the early evening. At KAVL, winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru tomorrow morning. They will eventually back to a WLY and then SWLY direction by the late afternoon and weaken as they do so. Outlook: Dry high pressure will remain in control of the wx pattern thru the week with VFR conditions prevailing. Confidence Table... 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link: && .FIRE WEATHER... The very dry air mass remains in place across the area on Monday, but winds will be lighter overall than Sunday. There may be some low-end gusts across the mountains, but they should remain below critical levels. That said, temperatures will be warmer, and even with slightly higher dew points, RH values should fall below 25% across much of the area. Expect another Fire Danger Statement will be needed for NE GA where only one weather element is needed for issuance. Statements not expected for the Carolinas, however land management coordination may be needed. Looks like moisture recovery will be delayed on Tuesday, so with even warmer temps developing, RH values likely fall below 25% once again, but with light winds. Looks like moisture recovery begins on Wed, but with the warmup continuing, any slow down in recovery could lead to critical RH values. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AP NEAR TERM...JPT SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...JPT FIRE WEATHER...RWH/JPT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.