Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 190733 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 333 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and cool conditions continue today as Canadian high pressure moves over the Southeast. Warmer temperatures return Wednesday into Thursday with continued dry weather. A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and rain back on Friday, with rain chances potentially lingering into Saturday morning. High pressure should build back in from the northwest to salvage the second half of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday: Cloud cover is noted along the NC/TN border this morning, but clear skies persist elsewhere. Cloud cover across these areas will gradually decrease through the morning hours, becoming sunny shortly after daybreak. Some low-end wind gusts are lingering east of the mountains this morning, but these should taper off within the next hour or so. Wind gusts will linger across the mountains this morning, but should gradually decrease in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes. With cold air advection continuing to filter into the region this morning, and clear skies across most of the area, lows will drop near or below freezing area- wide. Since the growing season has already started in the SC Upstate, portions of NE GA, and the southern NC Foothills and Piedmont, a Freeze Warning remains in place for these locations through 10 AM. After this time, temps should rise above freezing in these locations. It will remain dry and cool again today, with breezy winds returning this afternoon. Although gusts will not be as strong as yesterday, abundant insolation will lead to minimum RH values falling below 25% across the forecast area today. In coordination with land managers and neighboring forecast offices, SPS` for Increased Fire Danger was issued for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia for this afternoon and evening. See the fire weather discussion below for more details. Winds will start out NW this morning, turning SW (east of the mountains) and W/WNW (across the mountains) by this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will end up 3 to 8 degrees below climo. Breeze winds will remain across the mountains through the overnight hours, while winds east of the mountains will gradually diminish during the early overnight hours. Although clear skies will remain in place tonight, lows will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than lows this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 206 AM EDT Tuesday: The middle part of the week continues to look quiet for the most part. A broad low amplitude mid/upper trof over the east half of the United States will slowly fill on Wednesday. The air mass over the Southeast modifies quickly as heights rise, with temperatures rebounding back to five degrees above normal for Wednesday afternoon, while keeping the RH relatively low. That gives us one more day with much of the area east of the mountains getting down into the 25-30 percent range, but wind should not be significant. One final reinforcing cold front should cross the region from the NW Wednesday evening, but the upstream air mass is not nearly as cold as the previous one. Low temps should be close to normal Wednesday night and the highs on Thursday will only drop back 3-5 degrees compared to Wednesday with increased cloud cover, thus still on the warm side of normal. Changes should start happening on Thursday and into Thursday night as a srn stream system comes out over the southern Plains, building a downstream ridge over the Carolinas, which supports an elongated sfc high from Quebec to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by daybreak Friday. Moisture associated with the low approach from the west will begin to spread over the region in the overnight hours, with isentropic lift forcing the development of some light rain which may reach the ground before sunrise. The increased cloud cover should keep low temps above normal, and above freezing across the mtns as the precip begins.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday: By daybreak on Friday, all the players should be on stage for hybrid cold air damming to develop across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, with a 1032 mb high sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the morning and improving moist isentropic upglide and weak mid/upper forcing doing their part to spread light precip across the region from the southwest ahead of the upper trof moving across the lower MS Valley region. Precip chances quickly ramp up to likely by afternoon, helping to lock in the wedge air mass east of the mtns, while an almost Miller-B type low organizes to our southwest. For temps, we will undercut the NBM by several degrees, which should keep the high temps on Friday afternoon well below normal and not getting out of the low/mid 50s outside the mtns. Fcst soundings over the mtns suggest a snow level perhaps making it down to about 7k feet at some point, so a few wet snowflakes won`t be ruled out on the tall peaks, but this will not be included at this time. A few embedded thunderstorms could develop over the southeastern fringe, but fortunately the wedge will preclude any severe storms owing to the lack of sfc-based buoyancy, which is good because shear will be strong. A low level jet feature should translate east across the region Friday night and take most of the rain with it before daybreak Saturday as a sfc low strengthens off the Southeast Coast, but the operational models keep the sfc low in close enough proximity early in the day to suggest that precip could easily linger well into the morning, while taking well into the afternoon to drain the wedge. That makes the temp forecast for Saturday really low confidence. The low should move away late in the day and high pressure builds in from the west to dry us out Saturday night. The remainder of the medium range should be fairly quiet even as the pattern remains progressive. An upper ridge in the nrn stream will support a large sfc high ridging down across the region for Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper trof moving across the southwestern United States will help develop an increasingly SW flow aloft, though moisture and warm advection will be slow to return. The rest fcst will be kept dry with a slow warming trend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF forecast period thanks to high pressure. VFR cloud cover is noted along the NC/TN border this morning, with clear skies in place elsewhere. This cloud cover will gradually decrease around daybreak, becoming clear. Clear skies are expected everywhere the rest of the TAF period. Wind gusts are lingering across some of the terminals this morning but these should gradually diminish everywhere, except KAVL, in the next few hours. KAVL will see gusts linger through the morning hours before tapering off. Winds start out NW this morning, gradually turning SW (east of mountains) and W/WNW (across the mountains) early this afternoon. Wind gusts return this afternoon so have low- end gusts mentioned across the terminals, with the exception of KAVL. Gusts should linger across the SC terminals through the end of the TAF period, while gusts at KCLT and KHKY should taper off by this evening. Outlook: VFR conditions will linger through mid-week. A low pressure system will bring rain and associated restrictions Friday into early Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Fire weather concerns return again this afternoon and early evening with forecast minimum RH values falling into the teens and lower 20s, and with forecast wind gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. In coordination with land managers and neighboring forecast offices, an SPS for Increased Fire Danger was issued for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia for today. An SPS for Increased Fire Danger was not issued for the SC zones as fuel moisture values are running high. Winds will start out NW early this morning before gradually turning SW (east of the mountains) and W/WNW (across the mountains) this afternoon.
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...Increased Fire Danger from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ018-026-028- 029. NC...Increased Fire Danger from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ068>072-082- 508-510. SC...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ008>014-019- 104>109.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/PM NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AR FIRE WEATHER...AR

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