Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 182357 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 757 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry conditions this week with below normal temperatures into mid week, then a warming trend into the weekend. The weather becomes a little more active next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 740 PM: Little change needed to the fcst. Bumped up sky cover a tad to reflect cirrus shield streaming across the area. But these clouds are quite thin, so should have little impact, if any, on temps, which look on track. Otherwise, dry low level high pressure will continue building into the region through the near term, in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough that is currently passing north of the area with very little fanfare. Dry and clear conditions tonight will allow for good radiational cooling conditions in most areas, although portions of the Piedmont may remain lightly mixed due to a slightly tighter surface gradient. Min temps are expected to range from 5-10 degrees below climo, with freezing temps expected across the mtns as well as the foothills and northern Piedmont of NC. Dry and unseasonably cool conditions continue into Tuesday, with cooling NE flow expected to support max temps several degrees cooler than today`s readings, or around 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Monday: the short-term fcst picks up at 00z on Wednesday with broad upper trofing over the NE CONUS and weak upper ridging over the SW. During the next 24 to 48hrs, the upper trof will amplify over the Great Lakes and move the trof axis over the CWFA by the end of the period late Thursday. At the sfc, broad and dry high pressure will be centered to our NE as the period begins. By late Wed/early Thurs, the high will have moved farther offshore as a weak cold front approaches the fcst area from the west. At the same time, some sort of meso-low tries to spin up just off the SE Coast, however it`s unclear exactly where it will be centered and how strong it will become. The cold front will move thru the CWFA on Thurs without too much fanfare. There is some deeper moisture out ahead of it, but not that much. In its wake, very broad high pressure will spread back over the region. Wed should be dry with some slight chance to chance PoPs over the Mtns and Foothills as the front moves thru. Any precip that does materialize should be minimal. It may be cold enough over the highest peaks to get some snow flurries early Thurs, but no accumulations are expected. Temps will start out below normal and warm to near normal by Friday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Friday with deep upper trofing centered just to our east and upper ridging to our west. The long-range models indicate that the trof will get reinforced during the day on Friday and then move offshore on Sat. As it does, heights will recover as the upper ridge slides farther east. By Sunday afternoon/evening the ridge axis is expected to be centered over the fcst area. For the remainder of the period, heights will slowly fall as the ridge deamplifies and another upper trof approaches the Southeast from the west. At the sfc, very broad and dry high pressure will spread over the region on Friday and remain in place thru most of the weekend. By late Sunday, the center of the high will be moving off the SE Coast as light SLY low-lvl flow returns to the fcst area. As for the sensible wx, no major changes were needed to the fcst with dry conditions thru the weekend and PoPs ramping up on Monday as deeper moisture returns to the region. Temps will start out near normal on Friday and warm thru the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: The center of dry high pressure will slowly drift east across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians thru the period, keeping all sites VFR and turning winds around out of the NE. Little change in conditions results in short TAFs. Cannot rule out a few low-end gusts in the 14-17z time frame, mainly across the Upstate, but otherwise winds will be in the 5-10 kt range thru the period. Once the last of the high-based cu dissipates early this evening, the only clouds expected are thin cirrus thru the overnight. Outlook: Dry weather continues thru at least midweek. A front approaches from the west, and a weak low develops along the NC coast. These features may bring some increased clouds and a small chance of precip. But overall, a prolonged period of VFR conditions is expected thru the end of the week. Confidence Table... 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday, the winds are expected to be lighter and RH to be not as low as today. But if temps end up being a couple degrees warmer and dewpts a couple degrees lower than the current forecast, another Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia may be needed. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL SHORT TERM...JPT LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...ARK FIRE WEATHER...

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