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000
FXUS62 KGSP 231757
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
157 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia tonight. In the front`s wake, high pressure will
bring cooler and drier air over the region. Below normal
temperatures and low precipitation chances are expected from
Wednesday through the end of the week. Chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM: The sfc cold front was last analyzed pushing across
the Piedmont, just entering the I-85 corridor. A fairly solid line
of showers with a few embedded tstms is along the front, and has
been producing some pockets of around 40 mph gusts in the strongest
convection. This line will be entering slightly greater instability
(sbcape around 2000 J/kg), and after collaboration with SPC a Severe
Tstm Watch has been issued that includes Union, NC. The convection
should be exiting the area within the next few hours.

Tonight, all precip should come to an end this evening and skies
will become mostly clear by daybreak Wednesday. Lingering mixing
with low-level CAA and dry air filtering in behind the front should
preclude any fog development, except perhaps in some of the more
sheltered NC mountain valleys. Min temps tonight will be 3 to 7
degrees below normal.

Weather on Wednesday will be more like what you`d expect in early
fall across the region, as Canadian high pressure builds in under a
deep upper level trough. Dewpts will fall into 50s to lower 60s and
temps will only top out in the 70s mountains and lower to mid 80s
piedmont under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: Dry and cooler surface high pressure will
be well into the southeast by Wednesday night, and will remain over
the area Thursday and into Friday as well. A large upper anticyclone
will remain over the desert SW and prevent much progression as far
as the upper pattern through the end of the work week, the the upper
trough over the eastern CONUS will flatten a bit as the Bermuda high
retreats eastward. This will allow temperatures to moderate a bit
through Friday, though max and min temps will stay a few degrees
below normal with much lower and much more comfortable RH levels
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: The extended period will feature continued
moderation back to a more summertime feel and pattern for the CWA.
As the dry surface high shifts off the coast of the Carolinas, the
upper anticyclone over the desert SW will retrograde, allowing for
some bagginess in the upper trough to develop across the area while
still keeping the more persistent westerlies to our north. A few
upper level impulses will move through the upper flow over the
weekend, though will likely not produce much in the way of QPF due
to a lack of substantial moisture return. The Bermuda high edging
back westward early next week will allow more deep-layer moisture to
infiltrate the southeast, gradually increasing chances of diurnal
convection for the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front was analyzed just passing
through the KHKY/KGSP/KGMU sites at time of 18z TAF issuance, and
will continue to push southeastward thru KAND and KAND over the next
1-2 hours. The front is accompanied by a fairly solid line of SHRA
with a few embedded TSRA. This will be handled with tempos thru 19-
20z. Can see some gusty winds and brief 2-6sm vsby with the
downpours. Behind the front, still plenty of low to mid VFR level
clouds that will gradually scatter out thru the evening hours, as
dry air filters in. N/NE winds will pick up for late aftn into early
evening, weakening slightly overnight. They should stay up enough to
preclude fog development, except in isolated spots. Winds up the
valley should keep fog at bay in KAVL, but low stratus may develop.
Confidence is too low to put a low cig there, but will put some
brief sct004 before daybreak. Wednesday looks very quiet, with light
NE winds continuing and only a few cu mainly over the KCLT area in
the aftn.

Outlook: Unusually dry and quiet weather for late July is expected
to continue across the region for the rest of the week behind the
front, with mostly if not entirely VFR.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  80%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     High 100%     Med   77%     High  92%
KHKY       High  82%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  97%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...Carroll
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...ARK