Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 172210
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will linger over our region into
Monday then modify.  A warming trend is then expected through mid
week before another cold front with limited moisture crosses the
area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 PM: The Frost Advisory for late tonight into early Monday
morning has been expanded to add Rabun County in northeast Georgia.
Excellent radiating conditions should permit some mid 30s mins now
in much of Rabun to permit a bit more frost formation overnight.
Temperatures were also cooled another degree or so in many NC
mountain locations, but still expect freezing temperatures to be too
spotty for Freeze Warnings, so the Frost Advisory remains in place
there.

Otherwise, surface high pressure building into the region behind the
departing trough will set the stage for the coldest overnight lows
of the season so far, with widespread 30s across the mountains and
foothills and near 40 elsewhere. The newly expanded Frost Advisory
should cover the areas of greatest threat for frost, although patchy
frost is also possible east of the mountains, especially for
sheltered or low lying areas. Slowly building heights and
thicknesses associated with an approaching ridge from the west and
sunny skies will support highs returning to, if not above, normal by
Tuesday ranging from the 60s in the mountains to low to mid 70s east
of the mountains. Dry air mixing in from aloft this afternoon and
again Monday will support min relative humidity in the mid 20s to
around 30 east of the mountains and support continued dry fuels.
However, it appears that we will fall short of any fire weather
product thresholds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday: The short-term forecast picks up at 00z
on Tuesday with broad upper trofing moving off the Atlantic Coast
as broad upper ridging spreads farther eastward and into our fcst
area. Heights will continue to steadily rise thru the period, with
upper ridging remaining over the region thru the period. At the sfc,
expansive high pressure will be centered over the Southeast as the
period begins. It will gradually shift eastward through the period
and should be centered just offshore by the end of the period, late
Wed. Expect abundant sunshine each day with temps warming thru the
period. By Wed, highs are expected to top out about a category above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Thursday with flattened upper ridging in place over the region as
an embedded, closed, upper low makes its way eastward across the
Northern Plains. On Thursday, the low opens back up to the mean flow
as broader upper trofing amplifies north of the Great Lakes. For
the remainder of the period, some degree of broad upper trofing is
expected to remain over the NE CONUS as upper ridging persists to
our west. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just off
the Southeast Coast as a cold front approaches the fcst area from
the west. The latest guidance has the front moving through our CWA
late Thursday into early Friday and then offshore by late Friday.
In its wake, broad Canadian high pressure will spread back over the
region from the NW and remain in place thru day 7. Temps will start
out above climo on Thursday and cool to near climo (if not slightly
below) by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very high confidence in VFR conditions
persists through the period. Low end W/NW wind gusts have either
abated, or will soon, at the TAF sites - with mainly KAVL holding on
to gusts a bit longer into the evening hours. Some frost formation
on surfaces is likely at or near the KAVL airport near daybreak. Lee
troughing may set up Monday for light W/SW winds developing after
15Z east of the mountains, including KCLT, but with NW directions
continuing at KAVL at lighter speeds than today.

Outlook: VFR conditions with mainly light winds will prevail through
at least Wednesday. A cold front may approach from the northwest on
Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     GAZ010.
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/Munroe
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/Munroe


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