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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 231847
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1147 AM PDT Mon May 23 2022


.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected until Wednesday, with highs trending
a few degrees warmer each day. Widespread triple digit heat is
expected in the San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon, and highs
will peak at around 15 to 20 degrees above average. A cooling
trend is anticipated Friday and Saturday. Dry weather will persist
through next Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The warming will continue for at least the next couple of days,
thanks to building high pressure over the Central California
interior. Expect more above normal temperatures today, with
record breaking heat by Wednesday. Meanwhile, today`s highs will
be several degrees above average and slightly warmer on Tuesday.

The probability for record highs on Wednesday is around 50
percent (1 in 2 chance) for Fresno, Madera, and Hanford.
Otherwise, the probability is much higher (up to 80 percent) for a
high of 100 degrees or above in these locations. Some cumulus
cloud buildups are a possibility each afternoon until at least
Thursday, due to the daytime heating. In addition, the probability
is near 70 to 75 percent (up to a 3 in 4 chance) for triple digit
heat on both Wednesday and Thursday for the Indian Wells Valley,
including China Lake NWTC. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect
for Wednesday for our entire portion of the San Joaquin Valley,
lower Sierra foothills, and the lower Kern River Valley (including
Lake Isabella). Highs on Wednesday are expected to reach 100 to
105 degrees, temperatures this warm might impact those sensitive
to heat and those who are not yet accustomed to it. There will be
some overnight relief, but morning lows could be a bit warmer than
they have been so far this year, such as on Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. For example, lows could fail to drop below 70
degrees in the south end of the San Joaquin Valley. Typically,
those in the San Joaquin Valley can expect at least one triple
digit day on average in May. A second day of triple digits is
possible in a few valley locations on Thursday, though up to
around 25 percent (1 in 4) chance, such as in Fresno.

Noticeable cooling, or a return to near seasonal temperatures,
will likely occur Friday into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.
While it will still be relatively warm, at least we won`t have
triple digit heat for a little while. The primary weather concern
will become gusty winds, including in the Kern County mountains
and desert, as well as some locations in and near the West Side
Hills. Ensemble and deterministic guidance remain in decent
agreement for the extended period, including Friday through next
Monday. Otherwise, our forecast area will remain dry with no
precipitation expected.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California today
and tonight.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ301>307-
309>317-319-321-332.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Wx...BSO
PIO/IDSS..................Molina

weather.gov/hanford