Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 312125
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
225 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020


.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures will prevail across the area
into the weekend. A dry cold front will push through the area on
Wednesday, increasing winds in the Kern County mountains and
desert. A series of systems may be responsible for valley rain,
mountain snow, and cooler temperatures late this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite imagery showing some high
level cloud cover moving into Kern County, which is associated
with a weak broad upper level low at 27N/123W. Afternoon
temperatures will end up seasonable for the last day of March with
mainly upper 60s to low 70s in the SJV and Kern County desert,
50s to low 60s in the Sierra and Tehachapi foothills, and 40s to
50s in the higher elevations. Synoptically, a dry cold front is
currently pushing into Norcal as an upper level trough continues
to dig into the Pacific Northwest. Strong winds in the Kern County
mountains and desert will start to pick up later this evening as
surface pressure gradients begin to tighten ahead of the cold
front. As such, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 PM PDT
tonight through 10 AM PDT Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the aforementioned trough will continue to dig
southward into central Nevada as a dry cold front moves through
the central California interior. Strong, gusty winds of up to 55
mph, as indicated by the higher resolution HRRR, are likely in
the Kern County mountains and desert through Wednesday morning.
Afternoon high temperatures will slightly cool a few degrees
across the district, but should remain near average.

Medium range models are in little bit better agreement in showing
dry west to northwesterly flow across the district on Thursday
into early Friday. It is going into late Friday and Saturday when
the GFS and ECMWF start to differ greatly. The GFS has a cutoff
upper level low quickly moving into NorCal Saturday morning, with
precipitation chances mainly in the northern half of the CWA
through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is the far slower
more southern solution with precipitation moving into the majority
of the area by Saturday afternoon into most of Sunday.

From Sunday onward into the end of the forecast period next
Tuesday, the models are hinting at a deeper upper level trough
setting up in the eastern Pacific/western US. This will lead to
lower temperatures and increased chances of with precipitation
across the district. There are still differences in the timing and
strength of the upper level feature, so more details will have to
wait to be worked out.


&&

.AVIATION...
Strong gusty winds in the Kern County mountain passes and desert
are likely from 00Z through 18Z Wednesday. Local areas of MVFR/IFR
in low clouds and mountain obscurations possible along the valley
facing sides of the Tehachapi mountains from 08Z through at least
00Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at MCE,
MER, FAT, VIS, and BFL through at least the next 24 hours.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ196-198-199.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire wx...CMC
IDSS/PIO...............Molina

weather.gov/hanford



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