


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
538 FXUS66 KHNX 131800 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the San Joaquin Valley an Sierra Nevada Foothills through early next week. 20 to 60 percent chance for greater than 103 degrees in the Valley today and Monday; 40 to 70 percent chance for Foothill areas to exceed 100 degrees. 2. Low RH values 15 to 25 percent will stretch across much of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada with values 5 to 10 percent in the Mojave Desert early this week. RH will increase over the region later in the week with cooling temperatures. 3. 60 to 100 percent chance or temperatures to exceed 105 degrees for much of the Kern Desert over the weekend; 50 to 80 percent chance for Inyokern and Ridgecrest to exceed 110 on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Heat-wave continues across the region as afternoon highs are expected to reach back into triple digit range. While 24 hour change in temperatures is running cooler this morning, the current trend will still lead toward triple digit temperatures being reached. Therefore, will expect afternoon highs across the San Joaquin Valley to fall just within the 100 degree mark. With the high pressure dome still overhead, smoke from area wildfires has filtered into the region and will affect the afternoon temperatures. Ensemble Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching triple digits shows this effect as favors 100 degrees over 105 degrees this afternoon. The ridge overhead will also keep winds light and the atmosphere dry. A weak disturbance cutting through the area (along with an area of weakness centered over Baja California) on Tuesday/Wednesday will allow the flow aloft to push monsoonal moisture northward. The limited moisture along with weak dynamics will support cloud development over the Sierra Nevada and a very slight chance of showers on Tuesday. Otherwise, disturbance will help to knock- down temperatures for the remainder of the period. High confidence is still be observed with the current heat-wave as ensemble Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 103 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley with percentages in the 50%-80% range through Monday. While Tuesday still shows a range of 50%-80%, the PoE for those percentage are for afternoon highs reaching 100 degrees. Therefore, will maintain the Heat Advisory through Tuesday with high confidence that Wednesday will transition toward below triple digit heat. By mid-week, PoE of reaching 100 degrees falls below 30%, which translates into high in the 90s for the remainder of the period. With the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame as a transitional period from triple digits to 90s, winds will be on the increase. PoE of reaching wind speeds of 40 mph will favor the wind-prone areas of Kern County. Current PoE of 40 mph winds are in the range of 40%-60% over the Mojave Slopes with a few spots reaching PoE of 90%. Will monitor the situation for any possible messaging on this Day 3 to Day 4 event. Again, ensemble do attempt to push monsoonal moisture northward toward the Sierra Nevada this week. Yet, with the disturbance riding over the Baja Cal area of weakness, northward progression of moisture will be limited as main area of moisture pushes more into Utah/Nevada than California. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ300>322-324-325- 332. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina/SM weather.gov/hanford