Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 191204
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
355 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will prevail over the district
during  the next 7 days. Temperatures will average well
above normal today. A noticeable cooling trend Thursday
through Friday will be accompanied by gusty winds through
and below the mountain passes. The weekend will bring
lighter winds and slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A hot day is on tap for today but it should
be the last day of triple digit heat in the San Joaquin
Valley and the Kern county desert for at least the next
7 days. We`ve been pretty fortunate so far this year that
there`ve only been a handful of days at or above the century
mark in the San Joaquin Valley and the spells of hot weather
have been relatively short. We all know it could be much
worse. Two years ago this week we were in the midst of a 9-day
stretch of triple digit heat and on five of those days, high
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley were above 107 degrees.
During the peak of that relentless heat wave, thermometer readings
spiked to 110 degrees in Fresno and Bakersfield! Highs today
will again flirt with the century mark as a ridge of high pressure
aloft centered over the Eastern Pacific noses into central CA.
After today, this ridge will shift far enough westward to allow
room for an unusually deep upper level trough to drop southward
out of western Canada into the Great Basin. The majority of the
models track this trough as an inside slider. However, the 06z
run of the GFS forecasts this system to track a bit farther west
than the other models Friday. If this were to happen, it could
bring showers into the high Sierra Friday afternoon and some mid
level clouds as far west as the eastern San Joaquin Valley by
Friday evening. That`s a new development from earlier GFS runs
and for now we`re going to discount it unless the remaining
models trend similarly.

What we`re most confident of is the big change to refreshingly
cooler weather later this week. Ironically it will arrive here
Friday, which is officially the first day of Summer. The cold
front that ushers in this cool change will be moisture starved
and equipped with little more than some mid and high clouds as
it sails southward through the CWA during the midday hours Friday.
Prior to its arrival, westerly winds will increase through and
below the passes Thursday afternoon and evening. Those breezes
will continue through Thursday night then ramp up again in the
wake of the cold front Friday afternoon. During this period, winds
could kick up some dust on the west side of the San Joaquin
Valley. In the Kern county mountains and desert, westerly winds
might gust up to 50 mph right below the passes, especially Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Otherwise, high temperatures will
trend downward significantly after today. Afternoon temperatures
Friday will be no higher than the 80s in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern county desert. The nights will be
comfortably cool, too, later this week with lows in the 50s
outside of the urban areas of the San Joaquin Valley and over
much of the Kern county desert.

Afternoon temperatures will bounce back to seasonable levels
this weekend as the upper level trough moves out of the Great
Basin and the Eastern Pacific ridge begins to build back into
the Golden State. Sunday will definitely be the warmer day of the
weekend after a residual cool start to the day. A day to day
cooling trend may become re-established over the CWA early next
week as yet another upper level trough settles southward out of
western Canada. By next Wednesday, a robust onshore flow could
bring ocean cooled air inland and keep high temperatures below 90
degrees over much of the San Joaquin Valley.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected over the central California
interior for at least the next 24 hours.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday June 19 2019... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Durfee
Aviation/FW....CMC
Synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford


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