419
FXUS66 KHNX 240106 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
506 PM PST Thu Jan 23 2025


.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather will continue through Friday with above average
high temperatures and below average low temperatures across the
San Joaquin Valley.

2. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of
rain on Sunday for the San Joaquin Valley.

3. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect Saturday
afternoon and evening through Monday afternoon. The Sierra
Nevada has a 40 to 60 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow
over the weekend with higher probabilities in Tulare County.
And the Kern County Mountains have a 65 to 85 percent chance of
6 inches or more of snow Saturday into Sunday at and above
4,500 feet. At pass level around 3,500 to 4,000 feet there is a
25 to 65 percent chance of an inch of snow or more.

4. Monday morning through next Wednesday morning have a 30 to
85 percent chance of freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We currently have a ridge of high pressure over the area
bringing above average high temperatures and near freezing low
temperatures. However, model ensembles are in agreement that a
retrograding trough will slide through California Saturday
through Sunday before slowing down significantly over Southern
California as it moves east Monday through next Wednesday.

The big story of the trough is the return of rain and snow to
the area. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Sierra Nevada from 10 am Saturday through 4 pm Monday as there
is a 40 to 60 percent chance of 2 inches of snow or more from
the storm with higher values in the high elevations especially
in Tulare County. A second Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the Kern County Mountains include Tejon and Tehachapi
Passes as there is a 65 to 85 percent chance of 6 inches or
higher above 4,500 to 5,000 feet and a 25 to 65 percent chance
of an inch or more of snow at pass level which will impact
weekend travel to and from Southern California.

In the Valley, we are looking at a 40 to 70 percent chance of a
tenth of an inch of rain or more from this storm with the
highest probabilities in Kern County. However, there is a 10 to
20 percent chance of freezing temperatures in the Valley through
the weekend for the overnight lows.

As the trough slowly slides south and east, colder air will push
into the air bringing a return to freezing temperatures with a
40 to 85 percent chance of overnight lows being at or below
freezing Monday through Wednesday mornings. The latest CPC
outlooks have a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average
precipitation in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. However,
the temperature outlook changes from being a 33 to 40 percent
chance of below average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook to
a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures in the
8-14 day outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours for the
Sierra Nevada and Kern County desert. VFR will prevail in the
San Joaquin Valley until 6-9Z when MVFR conditions begin and
will persist in spots through about 18Z Friday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday January 24 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno County. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Fresno County. No Burning Unless Registered in Kern,
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged
in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park
and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Monday
for CAZ318-323>331.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Monday
for CAZ333>336.

&&

$$

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idss/pio.............SM

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