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000
FXUS66 KHNX 022222
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
222 PM PST Tue Mar 2 2021


.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system that tracks eastward across southern
California Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures and
a slight chance of light precipitation to the Kern county
mountains and over the higher elevation of the Sierra. Thursday
through Friday will be dry. A storm system could bring wet weather
to mainly the higher elevations Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thanks to strong upper level ridging in place another beautiful
meteorological spring day today across central California with
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. High
temperatures today should top out about 5 to 7 degrees above
normal values which for Fresno is 65 degrees and Bakersfield 66
degrees. Tomorrow temperatures will run just a bit lower than
todays value with a 91 percent chance of temperatures 70 degrees
and lower tomorrow in Fresno and 93 percent chance of that
happening in Bako.

This slight cooling will be due to the approach of a eastern
Pacific closed trough that is currently centered offshore about
400 miles west of Point Conception and is the culprit responsible
for sending the high clouds northward into the region. This system
will move begin to move eastward later tonight and will move into
southern California. This will increase clouds across most of the
CWA and increase chances for light showers over the southern
Sierra mountains and Kern County mountains and desert areas on
Wednesday. A 22 percent chance of rainfall greater than a
hundredth of an inch on Wednesday exists in Tehachapi and 28
percent for Edwards. Now that is not the greatest of chances but
it is not zero, so we have that going for those areas.

By Thursday the trough will have moved eastward out of the area
into the Four Corners region and ridging will move in behind it.
This will bring back another warming trend and return to mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions. By Friday temperatures will run
about 8 to 11 degrees above normal levels. In Fresno there is an
88 percent chance of high temperatures 70 degrees or above on
Friday and in Bakersfield that probability jumps to 99 percent.

A trough from the Gulf of Alaska looks to move southward and pass
through northern California late Friday into Saturday. There is
some uncertainty to the exact track of this system and could end
up going a bit further north of the area and this would determine
if and how much precipitation falls over parts of the forecast
area. At this time current thinking has light precipitation
falling over the entire CWA, but any further northward change to
the track of the system will decrease chances in the southern
parts of the CWA. Currently there is a 35 percent chance that
Fresno sees a 24 hour rainfall total of greater than a hundredth
of an inch on Saturday versus only a 12 percent chance in
Bakersfield. Ridging then looks to return by Sunday and another
system looks to move into the region by the beginning of next
week.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at
least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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