Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 252316 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Hanford CA
316 PM PST Sat Jan 25 2020

Updated Air Quality Issues section

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably mild conditions can be expected today, then rain and
mountain snow likely overnight into Sunday morning, mainly from
Fresno County northward. Isolated thunderstorm are possible
during the late morning and afternoon on Sunday, mainly in
Mariposa and Madera Counties. Dry weather then returns as another
ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Monday and
Tuesday with morning fog possible both mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fog has quickly dissipated across the area this morning giving way
to a warm Saturday afternoon across the Southern San Joaquin
valley and Kern County desert. Upper level ridge remains on place
over the area. There is some persistent low level cloud cover
along the eastern half of the valley, as well as increasing mid
to upper level clouds associated with the approaching system. With
the persistent clouds, afternoon high temperatures will remain in
the low 60s in the valley and mid to upper 60s in the Kern County
desert.

Models are still consistent bringing the upper level trough and
its associated cold front into the central California interior
overnight into early Sunday morning. Precipitation will move into
the northern half of the district by midnight/early morning before
spreading southward across the district by early Sunday
afternoon. As with prior model solutions, a majority of the
energy and precipitation with this system will pass to our north.
Thus, QPF amounts within the valley will be less than a tenth of
an inch primarily north of Kern County. Between a tenth and a
quarter of an inch will be possible in the central Sierra
foothills and up to a half an inch of QPF is possible in the
Yosemite Park area. Generally less than a tenth of an inch is
possible toward the Tulare County and Tehachapi mountains. No
precipitation is expected in the Bakersfield area nor the Kern
County desert. Snow amounts of three to six inches is likely in
the Yosemite area southward into far northern Tulare County. Snow
levels will begin around 8,000 feet tonight, before falling to
around 6500 feet by Sunday afternoon as the cold core of the
trough pushes through the area. In addition, as the trough moves
through the northern half of the district, isolated post-frontal
thunderstorms are possible, mainly in Mariposa and Madera
Counties.

The aforementioned trough moves eastward out of the area by
Sunday afternoon. High-resolution models indicate an increasing
LAS-SFO pressure gradient to roughly 10mb. As such, strong
northwesterly winds will be possible in the Kern County mountains
late Sunday morning into Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 45 to 55
mph are likely, mainly through and below the Kern County mountain
passes. A wind advisory has been issued from 10 AM PST Sunday
morning through 4 AM PST Monday morning.

Upper level ridge will setup across the area on Monday into
early Tuesday and patchy fog may become possible in the valley
both mornings. Longer-term models still advertise a weak upper
level trough moving slightly north of our area late Tuesday into
Wednesday, but no precipitation is expected anywhere across the
district. This feature may be enough to mix the lower atmosphere
and prevent for formation on Wednesday morning. Moving on from
Thursday into the end of the forecast period next Saturday,
longer-term models in decent agreement building a strong 588
decameter high pressure across the region. Temperatures during
this time frame will increase to above average, with upper 60s to
low 70s across the valley and Kern County desert by the end of
next week. It looks like after the chance of rain on Sunday,
conditions for the remainder of the month appear to remain dry.
Morning fog may also be possible those mornings in the valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly MVFR conditions prevailing across Southern San Joaquin Valley
into the early evening. Areas of IFR in precipitation and low clouds
will begin across the valley floor by 08Z Sunday and continue
through 20Z Sunday. IFR conditions in precipitation and mountain
obscurations likely into the Sierra and Kern County mountains
beginning at 08Z Sunday continuing through 12Z Monday. Strong wind
of 45 to 50 kts likely through and below the Kern County mountains
beginning 18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the area the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday, January 26th, 2020, fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and
Tulare Counties. Further information is available at Valleyair.org.

&&

.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM PST Sunday morning until 4 AM PST
Monday for CAZ196>199.

&&

$$

public...CMC
aviation....CMC

weather.gov/hanford


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