Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 181927
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM and LONG TERM Sections have
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

High pressure in place over the Central Plains will build across
the Ohio Valley through the work week...bringing mainly dry and
cold weather.

The next best chance for precipitation will be late in the weekend
as low pressure in the southern plains pushes toward the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front well east of
Indiana. High pressure was found over the central plains states
with a surface ridge nosing east toward Illinois and northern
Indiana. GOES16 show a stream of tropical moisture across the
southeastern states. Lower clouds were still lingering across
Central Indiana with some clearing of the lower clouds found
across Illinois.

Models are in good agreement tonight as the cold front is expected
to push farther away as the surface high pressure system over the
plains builds east into the Ohio Valley. Time heights and forecast
soundings show drying within the column and subsidence tonight.
Some of the lower clouds across Indiana should shift
east tonight...leading to just a few high clouds streaming across
Indiana within the quick zonal flow aloft. Thus will trend toward
becoming partly cloudy tonight. Given the weak ongoing cold air
advection...will trend lows at or below the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Quiet weather is expected through this period.

Zonal flow is expected aloft on Wednesday before a quick moving
short wave drops out of Canada on late Wednesday night before
passing across Indiana on Thursday. In the Wake of this wave
aloft...strong ridging builds across the area on Friday.

Meanwhile at the surface a secondary high pressure system is
expected to drop out of Canada and and reestablish and reorganize
across the plains and the Ohio valley through Friday. This will
keep a cool northwesterly surface flow in place across the area
region...effectively blocking any gulf moisture.

Thus with the lack of moisture and poor organization within the
lower levels with Thursdays short wave...will keep a dry forecast
for now. on Thursday. The rest of the forecast will remain dry due
to the strong surface high pressure and limited moisture.

Will keep temps at or below the NBM with the cool NW flow in
place.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Quiet start to long term period as high pressure slowly slides
across the central CONUS. Changes begin Saturday night into Sunday
as stronger Pacific short wave moves into Ohio valley. Moisture flux
really increases Sunday but as expected models have a large spread
in track of system. For now will stay with blends and high chance to
likely pops later Sunday into Sunday night. Timing to likely change
as well. Pcpn type also difficult to determine at this time with
highly variable storm track possibilities impacting thermal fields
in our area. Pattern becoming more active with another strong system
possible just beyond the day 7 period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 181800Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Have moved back timing of cigs climbing to VFR and eventually
clearing terminals by a few hours. Models too fast with clearing
given latest satellite and surface observations. Visible imagery
showing quite a bit of diurnal stratocu developing across NE IL
into NW Indiana. However, drier air and subsidence associated with
building high pressure also starting to erode western flank of
these clouds. Thus a few hour delay expected but eventual VFR and
clearing skies by later this afternoon and evening across central
Indiana. VFR remainder of period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Lashley


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