Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 131913
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
313 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

The period will feature the transition from last week`s
persistently hot, humid, and occasionally stormy days...to a
string of pleasant, if not occasionally cool, early summer
weather. Light northerly breezes and scattered cumulus have been
the rule today...with dewpoints starting to slowly drop through
the 60s, and temperatures not climbing quite as far above normal
as the past two days. A stray shower brought brief rain to
Jennings County earlier today...although confidence is building
that any further convection will stay to the southeast of the CWA
along the associated, departing boundary.

Synoptically, the western upper ridge will continue to re-amplify
from the Rockies into the Canadian Plains...providing a
northwesterly flow into the Mid-West.  A short wave trough will
plunge from the western Great Lakes to West Virginia through the
period, dragging another surface boundary southward across the
region during the day Monday.  Westerly winds will increase
throughout the morning before veering behind the front`s passage,
and becoming northerly by late day.  Post-frontal winds of 15 mph
are likely, with a few gusts of 20-25 mph, especially along and
north of the I-70 corridor.  Did not include any POPs as this
feature passes given antecedent dwpt drop, PWATs only 0.50-0.80",
and main vort passing east of our region.  Winds will then diminish
through Monday night as low-level ridging slowly builds in from the
northwest, although a few gusts of 10-15 mph are possible through
6z Monday night.

Temperatures will drop to the 60-65F range tonight...rebound for one
last day in the mid to upper 80s Monday...and then drop below
normal Monday night, into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Tuesday through Wednesday...

The long term will feature dry and cooler weather as the synoptic
setup will feature a high amplitude upper ridge, over the Rockies
and northern Plains and fast northwest flow over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper vortex will be over northern Quebec
and a trough will extend southward over the Appalachians. At the
surface, an expansive area of high pressure will extend from James
Bay south to the western Gulf of Mexico.  A sharp wave will dive
southeast in the northwest upper flow across central Indiana Tuesday
night. However, a very dry column, northerly winds on the front side
of the surface high and low level subsidence will support keeping
PoPs out, despite the GFS showing some QPF.

The northerly winds will bring in a much drier and less warm
airmass, with seasonable or slightly lower afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday and cool overnight
lows in the 50s Tuesday night. Normal high and low temperatures this
time of year are in the lower to middle 80s and lower to middle 60s.

Thursday through Sunday...

By Thursday, an upper ridge will be moving overhead and the surface
high moves off to the eastern states. This will bring the winds back
around to southwesterly which will allow temperatures and humidity to
make a recovery and also bring the potential for some late week and
weekend convection as a cold front also approaches and stalls out
nearby. Instability progs support thunder chances.

Look for temperatures to heat back up to well into the 80s northwest
by Thursday. Late weekend temperatures and PoPs will be more
problematic and depend on the spacial and temporal evolution
of the front.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

IMPACTS:
-VFR prevailing across central Indiana through Monday afternoon
-Northerly winds of 8-10 kts today, gusting to 16 kts at KBMG
-Westerly winds Monday morning, increasing to 9-14 kts by 18z...
  with gusts to 17-20 kts for most locations Monday afternoon

DISCUSSION:
VFR conditions are expected to continue across central Indiana...
with weak high pressure slowly building into the region on light
northerly breezes through early this evening. FEW/SCT diurnal Cu
will dissipate around sunset. Winds will slacken below 7 kts in
the 23z-03z time frame before backing to W/WSW by 12z. Winds will
increase Monday morning while veering slights to W/WNW, as a
southward-plunging short wave trough approaches from the Great
Lakes. A few wind gusts of 17-20kts are likely tomorrow afternoon,
especially along and north of the I-70 corridor.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AGM
Long Term...Koch
Aviation...AGM


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