Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 160323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1122 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

High pressure will generally be the predominant weather feature
throughout the forecast period, resulting in mainly dry conditions
with just a few exceptions. The first exception will be tonight
when showers and thunderstorms could dip into the northern half of
central Indiana again as a cold front sags into the area. After
that, conditions will be dry until late in the extended period
when the next upper trough brings low chances for showers and
thunderstorms next Sunday. Meanwhile, temperatures will be at or
above normal.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The main focus will be on shower and thunderstorm chances across
the northern half of central Indiana.

Currently, radar mosaic has quieted down significantly after
earlier showers and thunderstorms. This lull should continue
through this evening. However, will trend toward increasing
showers and thunderstorms again from the northwest early tonight
as a cold front sinks into the area. Chances will be low but best
over the northern half of central Indiana. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 60s.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Wednesday/...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

A large ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. and Canada
will keep conditions dry thoughout the short term period. Even
minor disturbances will be limited throughout the period, so will
trend toward the dry forecast. Temperatures through the period
will be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and even
some low 90s (south) on Monday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be
in the 60s with some upper 50s (north) on Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

ECMWF continues a familiar theme of dry weather during this

The ECMWF continues to shows strong high pressure in place across
the region through much of this period. Strong ridging remains in
place across much of the eastern half of the United States
through at least Saturday. Any forcing dynamics appear to steer
well north of the region as Indiana will remain protected by the
ridge aloft. Thus dry weather along with above normal temperatures
will be expected through the period.

ECMWF suggests the ridge begins to break down by
Sunday...however...confidence in this remains low given the
strength of the ridge. For now, the NBM puts in some low chc pops
at that time which is not all that unreasonable...thus will let
them play for now.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1122 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Moderate to good confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF
period. The SREF is very optimistic to VFR but the GFS LAMP and a
low dew point depression suggest some MVFR fog is possible, mainly
at KLAF 09z-13z. GFS LAMP also suggests MVFR ceilings are possible
after 12z.

Winds will be light and variable overnight and northwest and
north up to 7 knots after 17z.




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