Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 020825
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
425 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.UPDATE...The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Surface high pressure will continue to drift southeast and allow for
much warmer weather starting today.

Thunderstorms will return to the area by Wednesday afternoon as a
cold front approaches and disturbances move through aloft. Finally,
dry weather will return late in the weekend as high pressure moves
in.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Much warmer temperatures will be the weather highlight across
central Indiana today as breezy southwest winds around departing
surface high pressure and a mix of sun and clouds will allow
temperatures climb all the way to the upper 80s. 90 degrees can not
be rule out over western locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Models in good agreement that the upper ridge, currently over the
Mississippi Valley will weaken and shift to the southeastern states
by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow an upper trough to move into
the Mississippi Valley and the southern edge of the faster west-
northwest flow aloft to settle south across central Indiana.
Disturbances in the flow aloft and an approaching cold front will
interact with a moderately unstable atmosphere /model CAPES 1200 to
2500 J/KG and bring a risk of thunderstorms to the area by Wednesday
afternoon. Although deep layer shear will be marginal /20 to 30 knot
1000 to 500 millibar bulk shear/, the degree of instability supports
a few severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail
Wednesday afternoon and evening, per the Storm Prediction Center
Day2 severe outlook.

With the front in the area and upper flow the same, more storms
expected Thursday and Thursday night. A few of those could be strong
as well.

With breeze southwest winds once again, good confidence in well
above normal temperatures Wednesday per the blend. Look for highs in
the 80s with lower 90s again possible, mainly west of Interstate 65.
With increasing dew points, the heat index will top out in the lower
to middle 90s.

A bit more cloud cover on Thursday and the front in the neighborhood
lends less confidence to temperatures on Thursday, but they should
still be well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with the upcoming weather
pattern during the extended. A short wave trough is expected to
dig through the Great Lakes Friday, with upper ridging building
across the Ohio Valley by the weekend and on into early next week.

A frontal system associated with the Great Lakes trough is
expected to pass through the local area on Friday. Will go with
chance PoPs on Friday, as this feature moves through.

Ensembles suggest little in the way of a precipitation threat
from Saturday onward, as a drier and more stable air mass advects
in. Will go with a dry forecast after Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 020900Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 1133 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Primarily mid and high clouds will move through at times.

Low level wind shear will be an issue at KLAF early in the period.
Winds will increase after sunrise with gusts to around 20kt
developing by mid to late morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50/MK


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