Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper low will lose influence across central Indiana overnight,
allowing drier air to move in for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front will bring rain chances on Friday, then dry weather will
return for the weekend into early next week. Below normal
temperatures into the weekend will give way to above normal
readings early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A few showers continue across the eastern half of the forecast
area this evening, with this area still under the influence of an
upper level low. Meanwhile, drier air had brought clearing of low
level clouds to Illinois, but the clearing line for the low level
clouds has slowed down as it approaches the central part of the
Indiana border.

Showers will continue to diminish across the eastern forecast area
into the early overnight as the upper low loses its influence
across the area. Continued some low PoPs east until then.

Allowed for some partial clearing far west later this evening, but
don`t expect much more in the way of clearing with the loss of

Areas that do see some partial clearing might see a brief period
of fog, but increasing low level winds overnight should stop any
widespread development.

Clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much overnight.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Water vapor imagery depicting slow moving mid level circulation over
the TN/OH valley this afternoon with northern stream upper trof
moving through Ontario. Northern stream wave will dig into the great
lakes region and kick closed upper low eastward toward the mid-
Atlantic tonight. This will lead to dry forecast by Wednesday
morning...diminishing trends on radar this afternoon but still have
some light returns so will continue with some lingering low chance
POPs overnight. Weak surface ridging will then build into the area
and provide fair weather Wednesday and Thursday with seasonably cool


.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Split flow pattern will have southern stream system moving along
the gulf coast while northern stream wave moves into the great
lakes Friday. Limited moisture and modest forcing will bring just
a small chance for showers as weak cold front moves through the
area. High pressure building in behind front will bring dry
weather for the weekend with near to just below normal
temperatures. Meanwhile...closed mid-upper level circulation just
past 140W will come onshore to western US this weekend. Subsequent
downstream ridging will build over the region and bring
substantial positive height anomalies over the midwest and great
lakes by the beginning of next week. Warm return flow on backside
of surface high will have low level thermal ridge over the area
Monday and Tuesday with 850mb temps near 11C supporting highs
reaching upper 70s to around 80F.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250300Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

VFR conditions have briefly moved into KIND, but upstream obs show
more MVFR so only went with a tempo VFR group for a couple of hours.
Based on those upstream obs, have delayed arrival of the lower end
MVFR ceilings.

Previous discussion follows...

Mainly MVFR conditions expected, with perhaps some IFR at KBMG

Although back edge of clouds is trying to move toward central
Indiana, it shouldn`t get much further as the sun sets and mixing
diminishes. KLAF/KHUF may bounce to VFR early in the period, but
kept things simple there at MVFR. KIND/KBMG should remain MVFR.

Models are hinting at IFR developing overnight at most sites. Not
buying this yet for most sites, but did allow KBMG to dip into IFR
as they tend to do so. Confidence in ceilings is medium at best

Conditions will improve during the morning into early afternoon from
northwest to southeast as drier air returns.




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