Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242314 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
614 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Messy upper atmosphere flow this morning across the middle part of
the country. Upper low over the northern Rockies within larger
trough across the Rockies will be slowly pulling northward through
the next 24-36 hrs. Building ridge across the upper midwest will
shorten the wavelength between PV anomaly located over northern WY
and the ridge axis across the northern Plains leading to jet
development which will serve to effectively split the longer wave
trough into two, as a separate but potent PV anomaly moving
southeast across southern CO becomming a new upper low over TX by
early Tuesday.

Meanwhile a possible MCV rotating slowly across KS into southeast NE
has allowed subsidence to keep precip at bay across KS into southern
NE through the day. However as this continues to move slowly away
from the area large scale forcing for ascent will focus low level
convergence along and ahead of the surface front from eastern NE
into NC KS. Of concern is how much large scale forcing will allow a
mid level convergent zone in concert with weak instability to
develop showers and a few TSRA north of the surface boundary and
into the southeast half of the CWA. Large scale models differ on
this scenario as do individual CAMs which makes for a low confidence
forecast in amounts of precipitation north of the surface features.
Have focused most of the better precip chances southeast of a line
form North Platte to Ainsworth. Concerned about flooding potential
in parts of Custer county that saw 2-4 inches of rain last night.
Please see the hdyrology section in this AFD for more info.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The aforementioned upper low that eventually becomes cutoff over TX
remains there for a good portion of the week. The northern most
upper low will get absorbed into the quicker mean flow across the
far northern portion of the US and southern Canada, which will
create a split flow pattern across the country. This will leave
most of the area under weak flow and associated weak forcing for
ascent through most of the week. Therefore precip chances after
Monday are few and far between which will allow a drying and
somewhat warmer trend through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected to become fairly
widespread along and east of a line from KIML-KTIF-KANW tonight
and Monday morning (06z 18z). The best chance of thunderstorms
will be along and east of KBBW-KONL. MVFR ceilings will likely
develop late tonight and early Monday morning east of a line from
KBBW-KONL also. VFR is generally expected Monday afternoon.


Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Have gone with a flash flood watch for Custer county as very heavy
rain from last night`s one-two punch of supercells followed by a
linear convective system has lead to soils incapable of taking much
additional moisture in the next 24 hours. Although westward extent
of precipitation is in question for the remainder of the night,
feeling that based on EM recommendation and even isolated TSRA
producing half inch or better potential, a flash flood watch would
be prudent to have in place. Biggest temporal worry will be through
18z Monday but will run the watch through 00Z Tuesday to cover any
lingering showers that may occur.


Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ038.



SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
HYDROLOGY...Stoppkotte is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.