Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151145
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
545 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Scant sensible weather concerns today through tomorrow. Latest
satellite imagery shows high clouds continuing to form and spread
across the NEB Panhandle into far western NEB over the last three
hours. Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough across
ID tracking east while an upper-level ridge extends from the
Southern Rockies across NEB into MN. A surface low will be
evolving east across south central Canada today with a cold front
tracking into northwest NEB. This front will move eastward across
north central NEB early evening. Despite the late frontal
passage, highs will be a couple to eight degrees or so warmer than
yesterday. Highs are expected to be generally in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, albeit near the mid 50s in extreme southwest NEB. Snow
cover will still modulate temperatures some given evident cover
based on late daytime scenes from Day Snow-Fog RGB imagery.
Otherwise, light breezes are expected today from the southwest
then turning west. While no precipitation is expected, will see
increasing sky cover ahead of the aforementioned disturbance.
Clearing skies are expected early tonight with lows somewhat mild,
lows in the teens into the 20s, warmest across far north central
NEB. Cooler air continues to move in tomorrow with cooler highs
forecast Sunday compared to today with largely mid 40s
anticipated across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Monday and beyond. Upper ridge axis will shift east of the Sandhills
region on Monday giving way to the next western CONUS trough.  The
trough is projected to advance east across the Plains Tuesday,
though outside of a slight cooldown and a few clouds, the passage
will be uneventful.  Highs will dip from the 50s on Monday back into
the 40s for most locations Tuesday afternoon. Despite the slight
cooldown, temperatures will remain above average.  As the trough
digs across the Mississippi Valley mid-week, strong upper ridging
takes up residence across the west coast.  This will place the High
Plains under northwest flow aloft. The latest wrinkle from the
models is one that involves at least a slight chance mention of
light QPF mid-week.  The models are suggesting an area of mid-level
FGEN associated with strong mid-level jet support that dives
southeast across the Central Rockies.  If so, this places west
central Nebraska under the left front exit region of jet.  Moisture
is sparse, at this point only trace amounts would be expected.  Even
with northwest flow temperatures remain above average through the
end of the work week.  By next early weekend a trough should
breakdown the ridge and eventually impact the Plains, though
precipitation chances look very limited with the weekend trough. All
in all, dry conditions and above average temps are anticipated
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gradually
increasing sky cover today in the form of high clouds as the next
disturbance aloft tracks into the region, however, no
precipitation is expected. Light breezes will prevail today with
winds shifting from south southwest to west accompanied by gusts
up to 20 kts at times across northern NEB late morning-afternoon.
Clearing skies are expected this evening. Meanwhile, winds will
then become northwesterly early this evening with light winds
expected the rest of tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...ET


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