Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170448
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1148 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The disturbance and weak closed upper circulation which tracked
through western NE overnight and today will move east of the area
this evening. The main weather feature through Monday night will
be the closed upper low currently centered over southern Nevada.
A surface low is centered over east central CO, with a stationary
front extending across northern KS. POPs were trimmed back for
tonight, with the best chances across southwest NE overnight.
This area will be in closer proximity to a disturbance moving from
eastern CO into western KS overnight. With PWATs still ranging
near or above 0.90 inch near and south of I80, and weak steering
winds, locally heavy rain is again possible with any storms.
Latest HRRR, RAP and SREF also indicated fog development across
the Sandhills later tonight through mid morning, with patchy to
areas of fog forecast. Visibilities could fall below a mile in
some locations.

On Monday, a disturbance will lift slowly northward from eastern
CO and western KS. This will bring increasing chances for showers
across the area by afternoon, along with a chance for
thunderstorms across southwest areas. The latest models show
associated lift will weaken as if lifts north. The highest POPS
for 40 to 50 percent across southwest NE, to only a slight chance
northern NE. Mainly cloudy skies and an east to southeast wind
will limit highs to the mid 60s.

Monday night, the closed upper low will move into CO and NM, with
a disturbance lifting from northwest KS into southwest NE. This
will bring likely POPs into far southwest zones after midnight.
Weak lift and and a moist atmosphere across the remainder of the
area to provide a chance for showers and a few storms into north
central NE.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The closed upper low will slowly northward Tuesday through Tuesday
night while the disturbance to its east brings the best POPS to
western NE on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Wednesday into Wednesday night the closed low will open up and
lift northeast through western NE. Locally heavy rain once again
possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Another deep closed low will drop into the western U.S. Thursday
and Friday as a strong upper ridge remains anchored over the
southeastern U.S. This will bring an amplified south southwest
flow at H500 with winds at that level up to 40KTs. This looks
favorable for severe storms to form Friday afternoon and evening,
and possibly again Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs to reach
around 80 Thursday and Friday, and possibly into Saturday and
Sunday if the Pacific frontal passage is delayed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
couple hours. Stronger storms with gusty winds could be possible
along and south of I-80 impacting KLBF. Rain gradually diminishes
by 09Z with ceilings remaining below 1000 feet. Some patchy fog
may even be possible at both sites. Any fog will diminish after
sunrise with ceilings struggling to rise above 2000 feet for the
rest of the TAF period.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik


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