Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1136 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The upper trough remains forecast to close off over southwestern
South Dakota and northwest Nebraska tonight. Although deep layer
shear will be rather weak at 20-25 kts, a few strong thunderstorms
are expected during the evening west of highway 83. Thunderstorm
chance are likely at near 60 percent over much of the area
overnight. With precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, locally
heavy rainfall is possible. In addition, any thunderstorms may be
slow moving at 10 mph or less. Models suggest heaviest rainfall
totals from a half inch to an inch will be possible across
southwest Nebraska into Custer County overnight.

On Sunday, the upper trough and closed low will drop slowly
southeast over Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms are likely
northwest and east during the morning, and all areas in the
afternoon. With mainly cloudy skies, and cooler 850 mb temps as
low as 11C, highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s, except mid 70s
south of I80.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday night, as the
upper low moves slowly southeast to far southeast Nebraska late.
Likely pops highway 83 east, and chance pops west during the
evening. Chances end in the west after midnight. Lingering
chances far eastern zones Monday morning. Cooler air persists
behind the system with northerly winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs in the
low to mid 70s.

Cool airmass persists as east to southeast winds behind the
system will likely mean stratus into Tuesday morning with
afternoon clouds. Highs still only in the low to mid 70s.

As the upper ridge across the western U.S. flattens out and
builds eastward, highs from the upper 70s Wednesday will reach
the upper 80s by Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Light rain showers will be possible overnight at the KLBF and KVTN
terminals. With rain being light, visibility restrictions will be
minimal. Ceilings will range from 8000 to 10000 FT AGL overnight.
Ceilings will fall to 3500 to 5000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal and
from 1500 to 2500 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal on Sunday.




LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.