Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 302014
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
314 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020


A quick moving shortwave will cross the Dakotas and MN tonight
into Saturday. A deep surface low (987 mb) associated with the
wave will cross southern Canada. A trailing cold front from the
low will advance from MT and WY into the western Dakotas overnight
tonight. South winds will increase tonight across our area as the
surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trailing cold
front. Wind gusts greater than 25 mph are possible overnight as a
southwesterly low-level jet increases to 40-50 kt. At least some
of this stronger wind will mix to the surface, especially across
the Sandhills/northern Nebraska and atop higher ridges. Then the
focus turns to strong gusty winds developing as the cold front
crosses the area Saturday. Winds aloft will be unidirectional from
the northwest, with speeds near 40-45 kt at H85. Will have no
problem mixing down these stronger winds, and forecasting
sustained speeds around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. The other
concern for tomorrow is how dry it will be. Very dry air is noted
at H7 with humidity values near 5% at that level just upstream
across SD. It is uncertain how much of this dry air will mix to
the surface, with another factor being the recent snowmelt from
Nebraska northwest through though SD into WY and MT. The ground is
at least damp from the snowmelt and could have at least a minor
impact in keeping the air from drying out too much. Did trend
humidity down some to near 30% during the afternoon and will
mention the lower humidity and potential fire weather concerns in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Sunday will be cooler in the wake of Saturday`s cold front. It
will still be mild though with highs ranging from the upper 40s
across north central Nebraska to near 60 degrees far southwest.

Ridging then builds in next week with very warm air aloft
spreading across the region (15-19C at H85 most of the week).
Highs continue to trend up with 70s looking more likely. Winds
look fairly light most of the week with little pressure change
until late week. South winds could then begin to increase ahead of
troughing that begins to develop into the western U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Expecting
low-level wind shear to develop across the area tonight,
especially across north central Nebraska. A cold front will move
through with all areas to see strong gusty northwest winds on
Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor



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