Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around
precipitation chances today and tonight.

Currently, low clouds continue to expand across the area, keeping
temperatures in the low to mid-40s thus far tonight. Aloft, the
shortwave responsible for today`s precipitation has slid off just to
the east, positioned over northwest IA. Upstream, another shortwave
is positioned over the central Rockies.

For today and tonight, the aforementioned upstream shortwave trough
will swing eastward and eject into the Plains while also deepening.
This is driven by good upper divergence aloft, with the low center
sitting in the broad right entrance of a jet axis centered over the
upper midwest. Another, more potent upper jet streak sits just
upstream over the Intermountain West, with the H5 low in the broad
left exit region. This should lead to quick cyclogenesis through the
day today, and promote expanding precipitation coverage this
afternoon as ascent increases locally. The favored location for
precipitation will be generally southeast of an Ogallala to
Valentine line, in closer proximity to the ejecting surface low.
Forecast soundings indicate little to no elevated instability, and
this should keep any thunder chances very low. With that in mind,
have kept thunder out of the forecast for today. The bulk of
accumulations should occur this afternoon and evening, with a tight
gradient in totals from northwest to southeast. The more substantial
accumulations (>0.50") should occur east of a Stockville to Broken
Bow to O`Neill line today. The persistent clouds and precip will
lead to another cool day, with highs only climbing into the
mid/upper 50s.

The upper low will begin to slowly push east of the area by tomorrow
morning, with precipitation ending from west to east through
tomorrow afternoon. This should also coincide with gradually
clearing skies, though the slow progression of the upper low leads
to low confidence in how quickly we will clear. This also leads to a
low confidence in the temperature forecast for tomorrow. Have kept
inherited highs west of HWY 83 in tact, though have trended
temperatures down east of HWY 183 where confidence in clouds
persisting through the afternoon is highest. High temps will range
from near 70 in the west to the mid-50s east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Heights build aloft as an upper ridge begins to amplify over the
Rockies into late week. This upper ridge looks to be the dominate
weather feature into the first half of the Memorial Day Weekend.
Temperatures quickly moderate into the weekend, with highs returning
to above average by Friday. Will have to monitor this period for
elevated fire concerns, though increasing moisture advection Friday
should help to largely offset any widespread fire concerns.

By Saturday, a pattern change looks to be underway as broad western
troughing begins to establish. The upper ridge begins to flatten out
and flow transitions southwesterly aloft. Increasing moisture
advection coinciding with steepening lapse rates aloft and
strengthening mid-level flow will lead to a return of convection
chances for Saturday and beyond. Pattern recognition for late
weekend and early next week would suggest a return of severe weather
chances somewhere in the Plains. Mesoscale features are impossible
to pin down at this range, though trends will need to be monitored
for increasing severe weather potential for the back half of the
Memorial Day weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

MVFR/VFR is generally expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska today
and tonight. The MVFR/Sporaidic IFR/LIFR underway across parts of
the Sandhills this morning should improve to MVFR by noon.

A storm system across KS will move far enough north tonight to
spread MVFR/IFR ceilings/-RA into ncntl and swrn Nebraska,
generally affecting areas along and south of I-80, and along and
east of highway 83.




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