Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271159
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
559 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

An upper level disturbance across ern WY, ern MT and wrn SD will
drop through wrn Nebraska today. Scattered rain or snow showers
are in place using a blend of the HREF and short term model blend.
Lapse rates are steep supporting a convective pcpn model.
Isolated rain or snow showers may pass through ncntl Nebraska this
evening.

The guidance blend suggested windy conditions across the Panhandle
and a small portion of swrn Nebraska today.

The temperature forecast today leans on the HRRR and RAP models
which is on the cool side of the model envelop. Generally cloudy
conditions are expected today with cold air aloft and reasonably
moist sounding profiles.

Temperatures warm markedly Friday and nearly full sun conditions are
expected. The short term model blend plus bias correction suggest
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. After the disturbance moves
through today, temperatures aloft warm steadily with h850mb
temperatures rising to around 5C by late Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

The big warm up continues on track Saturday with temperatures
aloft at h850mb warming to 10C-15C. The models suggest the
potential for high clouds which could partially disrupt the
heating cycle. The temperature forecast leans toward the guidance
blend which is on the warm side of the model forecast envelop for
highs in the 60s.

A strong Pacific cold front will drop through wrn and ncntl Nebraska
Saturday night and temperatures aloft cool several degrees Sunday.
Highs in the 40s to lower 50s are in place Sunday but this could be
too warm given that temperatures aloft fall to around 0C at the
h850mb level.

A tandem upper level disturbance will move through the swrn U.S. and
the nrn Rockies Monday. The GFS ensemble and the ECM suggest the
best forcing will move through the Cntl and Srn Rockies sparing wrn
Nebraska. Meanwhile, the GFS operational model suggests the
potential for measureable snow which is likely the result of
midlevel frontogenesis. The forecast Monday uses a blended approach
for a chance of rain or snow across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

The rest of the extended forecast leans on low heights across the
cntl Plains and cold air moving into the region from a strong low
pressure system across srn Canada. Northwest flow will continue
across wrn and ncntl Nebraska but no obvious arctic air or strong
disturbances are shown by the models. The temperature forecast is
for seasonable temperatures and isolated rain or snow showers
associated with the cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
snow showers may briefly reduce visibilities to MVFR criteria, but
this threat is expected to be very localized with the best
potential of occurring at GRN/OGA. Breezy northwest winds develop
this afternoon and subside by the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

A surge of dry air will move into wrn Nebraska Saturday. The NAM
model showed precipitable water falling to around 0.15 inches and
winds aloft at h850mb increase to around 25 kts. This should
support humidity of 20 percent or less and gusts to 25 mph. The
wind forecast indicates sustained wind speeds around 15 mph. Fuel
status appears marginal Friday as snow cover will need to melt and
grasses will need to cure. This might be too much to accomplish
in one afternoon so the risk of Red Flag conditions is marginal or
low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Jurgensen
FIRE WEATHER...CDC


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