Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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718
FXUS65 KLKN 151043
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
343 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for additional isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon this week, mainly in
central and eastern Nevada. High temperatures today will be
cooler than during previous days. The cooling trend is not
expected to last long as high temperatures climb back into the mid
to upper 90s by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Current satellite loop
shows skies have cleared out over much of northern and central
Nevada. However, mid-level clouds from the south will be moving
north through the morning hours today. Main features are a large
upper level ridge spinning over the four corners and a weak upper
trough west of California. Moisture under the western side of the
ridge will continue over northern and central Nevada today,
allowing for the development of isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly over portions of central and eastern
Nevada. Precipitable water values are forecast to be above two-
thirds of an inch with CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg. over the
aforementioned areas. Highs for today will be cooler than recent
highs with readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The weather will be
quiet for the overnight with lows dipping into the 50s.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, little movement can be seen in the
upper level ridge, maintaining its position across the four-
corners area. The upper low west of California is expected to
shift slightly northeast. Precipitable water is expected to be
around 0.50 to 0.66 inches with another round of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in east-central and
eastern Nevada. Again, winds will remain light though convective
gusts to 40 mph are possible with any storm. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s. Storms will diminish during the overnight
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s during the night.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

An upper-level area of high pressure will remain over the Four
Corners of the Untied States Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
will allow monsoonal moisture to continue to stream northward into
Eastern Nevada. Thunderstorm probabilities Wednesday afternoon
will vary from 25 to 30 percent in Southern Eureka and White Pine
Counties to 15 to 25 percent in Elko County. The aforementioned
anticyclone aloft should weaken somewhat Thursday, before
retrograding westward Friday. This upper-level area of high
pressure should be centered over Eastern Nevada this weekend into
early next week. Be that as it may, there is still a slight chance
of thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each afternoon Thursday into
early next week.

A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Saturday. By
Saturday afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees
above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal values Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses each afternoon Saturday through Monday.
Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the Northern and
Central Nevada Saturday through Monday. Although heat events like
this are relatively common, heat-related impacts are possible for
those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Plan
to take action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and
remain in air-conditioned buildings.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning. Mid
to upper-level moisture will move into central and eastern Nevada,
allowing for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon at all terminals. Gusty outflow winds up to 40
knots, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary
threats starting after 19Z. Outside of storms, breezy winds from
the W-NW expected to increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25
knots. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures will remain today, though
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
mainly across central and eastern Nevada. Storm motions will be
around 5 to 10 knots with mainly wet storms expected. The activity
will generally continue each afternoon across east-central and
eastern Nevada. Through this period, afternoon high temperatures
will slowly warm as the upper level ridge shifts westward with
highs reaching the mid 90s to low 100s by the end of the week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/87/90/86