Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
134 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur today as a trough departs the region. Tuesday will see dry
air move into the region producing dry and calm weather for NV.
Another system remains possible late in the week bringing
increased winds and colder temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. An upper level trough
remains over the region which will again keep Nevada fairly
unstable today. The moisture associated with the trough is causing
thunderstorms for the afternoon which should the dissipate during
the evening. The moisture is highest in central and eastern NV so
the greatest extent of thunderstorms is in these regions. Some
storms, especially more of the high- based ones, could be more
robust and produce strong gusty outflows of up to 50 mph. Some
storms could produce brief heavy rain as storm motions, especially
in central Nevada, are as slow as 5 mph. Thunderstorms that form
on the outer periphery of the moisture will be dry and not
produce much in the way of rainfall. By tuesday, we will see a
shift in the weather as the trough and the associated moisture
departs the region. A ridge will then build across the area moving
dry air across NV. This will leave dry and calm weather for much
of area for the through Wednesday. An exception will be
southeastern White Pine county where residual moisture lingers
into Tuesday. This can lead to couple of isolated thunderstorm
over the Snake Range area during Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
will remain warm with many areas with highs in the 70s to 80s and
even the low 90s in a few unfortunate spots, and lows in the 40s
to 50s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Monday.

The long term starts out with the oft mentioned flat ridge over
the eastern Pacific with a weak elongated trough attempting to
undercut it in a retrograde manner. This creates high and dry
conditions over the Great Basin through Thursday. As the high-low
combo dance, the high actually flattens on the north side and a
lobe stretches east into the southern California coast. In turn a
strong short wave from the northeast Pacific drops down the
northeast side of the ridge and then across the Great Basin
Friday. A significant cold front, assuming this all verifies,
crosses the Basin Friday dropping highs from 80s and 90s Wednesday
and Thursday to Friday`s 60s in higher northern valleys, 70s over
large swaths of the Basin to some 80s in lower central Nevada
plateau valleys. A more persistent troughiness remains over the
region through Monday with temps remaining lower than normal. Not
saying the first day of summer will see freezing temps, but 30s
are not out of the question.

Pops go up a bit Friday-Monday but any storms will remain isolated
and partially to mostly dry.


.AVIATION...Thunderstorms will once again develop in central
Nevada during the afternoon, with a good chance for storms to
reach KTPH and KELY once again. A thunderstorm could also reach
KEKO, though less chance there and would probably be a drier


.FIRE WEATHER...There is isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly in central and eastern Nevada today. Storm
motion will be very slow again today, about 5 to maybe 10 mph
which will help to make storms wet in the central fire zones.
Where thunderstorms are more isolated and on the periphery of the
moisture, a dry sub-cloud layer will make these storms dry versus
wet even with the slower storm speeds. By Tuesday, the upper
level trough will have departed with an upper ridge building in
for the afternoon. This will bring dry air in from the north
ceasing most of the thunderstorms for NV. There may still be a few
isolated dry thunderstorms in far southeastern White Pine County
on Tuesday. The drying trend will continue Wednesday with no
thunderstorms expected and with slightly warmer conditions. A
trough will arrive late in the week with the result in slightly
cooling temperatures breezy to windy conditions. The weekend could
see some moisture move back over NV and the return of some dry


.HYDROLOGY...Main concerns remain on the Humboldt River
downstream of Elko and minor flood stage being reached each
evening along Lamoille Creek.

The stage at Lamoille Creek from last night got up to 5.05 feet,
which is about the same as the previous night. The cycle appears
to be lowering a little each day, though visual inspection of the
Rubies shows good snow up high. Will continue the flood warning
for today. On the Humboldt, Carlin has been slowly rising over the
past couple of days due to inputs from feeder streams running
strong and is in moderate stage. This increase will slowly make
its way downstream to other points like Palisade through Comus,
though with high evaporation rates, expecting the increase to not
be as large when compared to the winter or early spring. The river
has taken a slight turn up at Battle Mountain, though should
remain in minor flood stage today. Finally, at Comus, the river
levels have appeared to stabilize a bit and may see some very,
very slow rises later this week. Reinhart Lane remains closed due
to the sustained high water levels affecting the road`s

As for creeks and streams in central Nevada, they continue to
flow strong with impacts (closure of campground) in the Great
Basin National Park. Expect the streams and creeks outside of
White Pine County to begin to drop or slow down this week.




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