Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 151432 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area today. High pressure will build into the area through Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will lift towards the southeast coast Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build over the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1030 AM Thu...Latest surface analysis shows low pressure shifting off the coast of Virginia, dragging a cold front across eastern NC. Boundary is pushing off the Crystal Coast with NW winds at most sites this morning. Winds back a little more westerly ahead of a reinforcing cold front analyzed over the NC Piedmont, which will cross the region later tonight. Only minor adjustments to the grids this morning. Prev disc...Front is creeping across the the western portion of the CWA. Have adjusted today`s winds to better coincide with FROPA which has been pushed back a little later than expected. PoPs were lowered for the rest of this morning as the slower speed of the front suggests more low level stratus as opposed to higher elevated clouds which could`ve produced stratiform rain showers. Threat of precip and slight chance of thunder remains for the afternoon. Previous Discussion... As of 445 AM Thursday...Low pressure center is just pushing offshore of the NC/VA border. Weak cold front slowly being dragged by the low entering the CWA presently. Scattered light rain showers will linger until the main front finally crosses the area later today. Weak low pressure begins to form along the slow moving front by the afternoon. Best chance for light precip this afternoon into the evening lies along the coast where storms could develop along a low pressure disturbance forming along the frontal boundary. Highs in the low 70s inland, mid 70s toward the coast, and upper 60s along the OBX with cloud coverage and the CAA developing late preventing any decent warm up. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... Skies clear with high pressure building in and a reinforcing surge of cool dry air behind the front setting up for decent cooling allowing overnight lows to reach the mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thu...A cold front will stall well south of the area Friday then lift closer to Eastern NC by the weekend, with a weak area of low pressure passing just off the coast along the boundary Saturday night and Sunday. Near to slightly below average temperatures expected through the period. Friday into Saturday...The closed upper low deepens further as it moves east into the Northeast U.S. and eventually off the New England coast. The surface low becomes vertically stacked with the upper low during this period, well north of the area, while high pressure builds in from the west across Eastern NC. Mostly dry conditions expected through Friday night. On Saturday, the front that was stalled well south of the area will lift north closer the region, and have will continue to show sc/low chance of showers developing across the southern 2/3 of the area Sat afternoon and evening. Did increase pops a bit Saturday night and Sunday morning as moisture increases in response to low strengthening to the south. Slightly below normal temps expected with highs in the low 60s for the Outer Banks, and mid to upper 60s inland. Sunday into Wednesday...00z guidance in fairly good agreement with weak sfc low strengthening off the coast Sunday morning, then quickly pushing ENE into Sunday night...with additional waves of low pressure possibly developing along the same stalled front to the south through mid next week. Will continue with persistence for Sun into Mon, keeping slight chance PoPs closer to the coast. High pressure is forecast to build into the area early next week, with another front and weak coastal low development late Tue night and Wed. Will keep sc pops, mainly along the coast. High pressure is then forecast to build over the area through late week. Cooler temps to start, then gradually moderating through Wed, warming into the upper 60s and mid/upper 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Friday/... Periods of MVFR cats to start the day for western TAF sites and EWN with Werly winds 5 to 10kts. Westernmost sites may experience short lived IFR due to low level stratus/patchy fog in the wake of the passing cold front, lasting an hour or two. Mid-morning gusts up to 15 kts build back in and last through the day. Clouds lift back to VFR CIGs by the afternoon. Precip and potential tstorm activity this afternoon into the evening limited to the coast and should not have any effects of regional terminals. Winds veer NWerly 5 to 10 kts over night behind the front. CAA surges in late to start to clear the skies and bring in drier air which would dampen chances of fog development despite strong cooling late. VFR cats tomorrow Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday morning with scattered showers and low ceilings. Then VFR likely returning late weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As 730 AM Thursday...Cold front moves through the Eastern NC waters today with W/SW winds ahead quickly shifting more NW tonight. SCA conditions will persist for the central and southern coastal waters through Friday due to elevated seas behind the front. SCA introduced for northern waters overnight with Nerly surge of winds gusting up to 25 kts. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 245 AM Thu...High pressure will build in from the west for Fri into Sat with winds shifting NW to N and diminishing to 10 kt or less by late Sat. NW winds 10-15 kt Fri, becoming W and SW in the afternoon.6 ft seas will linger across the central waters through late Fri morning and early afternoon. Weak low pressure will form along a boundary lifting north near the southern coastal waters Sat night into Sunday, leading to another wind shift however winds remain 15 kt or less. Seas subside to 3-4 ft on Saturday and 2-3 ft on Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters early next week. Light winds 10 kt or less for most of Monday with seas 2-3 ft. Winds will shift to the north 10-15 kt Monday evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...MS/CEB LONG TERM...DAG/CQD AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/ML

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