Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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957 FXUS62 KMHX 251400 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will remain stalled offshore into Monday. Low pressure will lift northeast well offshore of the southeast coast early this week. Another cold front will move through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 10 AM Sun...No big changes with update. Latest radar analysis indicates light rain or drizzle continuing across E NC, though this activity not amounting to much in accums, and only expect a hundredth or so inland. Showers will be sct along the immediate coast esp the OBX through the rest of the day, so sct coverage in fcst remains. Prev discussion... As of 650 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows front stalled off the SE coast, with 1030 mb high pressure centered over the NE US extending into the Mid- Atlantic and SE US, resulting in a CAD/wedge pattern across the Carolinas. Latest radar imagery shows scattered light showers across the area this morning. The upper level trough will continue to shift eastward today as drier air continues to filter into the mid and upper levels. Still some low level moisture which supports isolated to widely scattered showers, best chances this morning, then transitioning towards the coast late morning and afternoon. Clouds may be tough to scour out until late in the day from NW to SE with CAD pattern. Temps will continue to be pleasant and comfortable for August standards. Low level thickness values and NE winds support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints generally 65-70 deg. Breezy along the coast today, with NE wind gusts 25-30 mph, as gradient tightens between high to the north and front to the south. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 240 AM Sun...High pressure to the north will continue to wedge into the area with sfc front stalled off the coast. Drier air continues to filter in, and while could see a few showers along the coast expect most of the area to remain dry. Pleasant temps with lows dropping into the low/mid 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM Sun...A drier conditions start at the beginning of the work-week, then a cold front will approach the area from the west midweek and push through Thursday resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Afterward, high pressure builds in leading to drier weather. Monday through Wednesday...A weak mid/upper level ridging will be placed over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while a shortwave trough is over the MS/TN/OH Valley. At the sfc, conditions will be drier as high pressure continues to wedge into the Carolinas from the north, while a potential tropical system to the SE of ENC coast. The previous runs of the ECWMF have been consistent with the potential tropical system to remain well offshore, while the CMC, UKMET, and spaghetti models continues to support the ECWMF output. Most of the impacts will be related to the water in the form of rough surf and strong rip currents. The previous mentioned shortwave trough weakens or somewhat gets absorbed with a broad trough along the northern stream as it approaches the Carolinas Tuesday. Remaining energy from the shortwave is forecasted to trigger some showers Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Expect highs 80-85 degree range on Monday, then temps will moderate a bit more into the mid to possibly some upper 80s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and mid 70`s along the Outer Banks. Thursday through Saturday...Models diverge at this point with the timing of the cold front and beyond. The ECMWF continues to be consistent with the past few runs with the front pushing through ENC by Thursday morning, while the GFS is running AOA 24-hours behind. Afterward there is some indication the frontal boundary lifts north or becomes hung up near the coast, and some showers develop with increasing fgen, so will keep slight to chance PoPs. Trended closer with the ECMWF due to it`s consistency. Expect highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the mid/upr 60s interior to low 70s coast. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 650 AM Sun...Widespread IFR and LIFR ceilings across the terminals early this morning. Cigs shld slowly lift and eventually begin to sct out as drier air works in with VFR expected in the aftn. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt expected this afternoon. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 340 AM Sun...A quasi-stationary boundary will well south of the area through midweek...leading to a drier trends. Still can see occasional sub-VFR in regards to lower ceilings due to lingering low level moisture. An cold front will approach the area Wednesday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms. Cold front is expected to push through Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 650 AM Sun...SCA conditions developing quickly across the waters early this morning. Latest buoy obs indicate NNE/NE winds 15-25 kt, and seas 7-10 ft north of Hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Moderate to strong NE winds and rough seas expected today and tonight. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers into tonight. The gradient will continue to strengthen today between high pressure to the north and front to the south, as area of stronger winds expands southward. NE winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and seas building to 5-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras. Leaned towards EC waves with NWPS and Wavewatch several feet underdone north of Hatteras this morning. Strong NE winds will continue tonight with seas remaining above 6 ft. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 340 AM Sun...Wind gradient will relax, though seas will remain elevated due to the potential tropical system bringing higher seas and swell. Expected NE winds 15-20 knots Monday, becoming 10-15 Tuesday, while seas will be 4-6 ft across all coastal waters and gradually subsiding from south to north Tuesday. A return flow begins Wed with winds 10 knots or less ahead of the approaching cold front. Then winds will become northerly after the frontal passage. Seas 3-5 ft wed, becoming 2-3 ft Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 650 AM Sun...Dangerous surf conditions expected north of Cape Hatteras today, with strong rip currents and dangerous shore break. A high risk of rip currents continues north of Cape Hatteras, with a Moderate risk from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout. Minor water level rises will be possible for low lying areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound and Neuse Rivers (including areas from Downeast Carteret, west towards Cherry Point and Oriental) through tonight, given the persistent strong NE winds. Rises up to 0.5 ft above ground (1 ft above normal) possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CQD/BM MARINE...CQD/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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