Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 152201 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 601 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area through much of next week. Another back door cold front will move through by Tuesday night. Tropical Cyclone Humberto will bring rough marine conditions and strong rip currents to the waters next week but little other direct impacts to eastern North Carolina. Fall-like weather filters in to close out the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 350 PM Sunday...Isolated showers will dissipate rapidly after sunset. As diurnal clouds diminish with loss of heating, the stage will be set for excellent radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds. This will result in another round of dense fog and stratus forming after midnight. Fairly uniform low temperatures are expected across the region tonight, ranging from 69 well inland to 74 degrees beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 350 PM Sunday...A carbon copy of the past several days is expected Monday with partly sunny skies and only isolated showers as a persistent surface trough lingers near the NC coast. Followed guidance trends with high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer in most spots Monday with lower 90s inland and mid/upper 80s beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...The work week will start off with a strong upper ridge centered over the central CONUS, and upper trough over New England and Mid-Atlantic states, and TC Humberto centered east of Jacksonville, FL. Meanwhile, TC Humberto is expected to make an ENE turn well east of the GA/SC coast. Tuesday...Weak shortwave energy and an attendant backdoor cold front pushes south across the area bringing isolated to widely scattered showers across the area while Humberto continues to slowly track ENE well to the south. Wednesday through Thursday...Strong high pressure builds in from the north through the end of the week while Humberto continues to track ENE across the western Atlantic. Tight pressure gradients between these systems will bring breezy northeast winds and a cooler and drier airmass that will give us a first hint of fall. Highs expected generally in the 70s area wide. Low temps will drop back into the mid/upr 50s interior to 60s on the beaches. Will have to watch for beach erosion and perhaps some minor coastal flood issues for prone areas of the OBX due to the prolonged gusty NE winds and high surf. Saturday through Sunday...Nerly gradient begin to relax by the weekend as the high becomes centered over the area bringing lighter winds and a moderating airmass with dry conditions continuing across the region. High temps moderate back to near climo in the 80s, with lows into the 60s. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term /through Monday /... As of 130 PM Sun...Mainly VFR for all sites through early evening, then high confidence in LIFR/IFR conditions developing 5-7Z in fog and low stratus clouds with strong radiational cooling expected overnight. The IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by 14Z but sub VFR conditions could persist into early afternoon as the fog and low clouds will be slow to dissipate. VFR conditions are expected after 18Z. Long Term /Mon night through Fri/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected for most of the long term, though patchy fog will be possible again Tuesday morning. A backdoor cold front pushes across the area on Tue with some iso showers possible. Strong high pressure builds in late Tue through the end of the week with Humberto passing well offshore bringing tightening pressure gradients and gusty north to northeast winds. Limited fog threat with dry air mass in place.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Tonight and Monday/... As of 350 PM Sunday...No changes to previous thinking. Latest Wavewatch, SWAN and ECMWF wave models show the beginning of the SE swell from Humberto arriving along our southern coastal waters around midday Monday. Issued a SCA earlier for the waters south of Hatteras starting at 16Z Monday, and for the waters from Oregon Inlet to Hatteras beginning at 00Z Tuesday. Tonight, winds should be E/NE at 10 knots or less with seas running 4-5 feet with 8-10 second swells. Winds continue E/NE 5-15 knots Monday, but seas edge up to 6 feet or better by midday Monday. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 350 PM Sun...SCA conditions expected through much of the long term with gusty nerly winds, large seas and and dangerous surf conditions as combined swells from TC Humberto and pressure gradient between building high pressure and Humberto well offshore impact the coastal waters. A backdoor cold front will push across the area Tuesday with strong high pressure building in form the north through the remainder of the week and TC Humberto continuing to track ENE well away from the area. NE winds continue to strengthen on Tue, peaking on Wed around 20-30 kt, then only slowly diminish on Thu, becoming lighter on Fri in the 10-20 kt range. Swell from Humberto will peak around 8-11 ft Wednesday into Thursday, the begin to slowly subside on Friday, though remain above 6 ft into at least the first part of the weekend.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 3 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 3 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SK/TL AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/CTC/TL

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