Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 171951 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 251 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over the region will shift off the coast Saturday as another strong front impacts the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Cold high pressure then dominates the region for most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...Latest sfc analysis shows strong 1045mb high pressure centered over Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes region, extending into the SE US. Quiet and cold night expected across ENC. Gusty north winds will subside this evening as upper ridge and surface high pressure shift over the Carolinas. With clear skies early excellent radiational cooling conditions will initially be present and expect temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Again leaned toward the colder guidance with lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s inland and low 30s along the beaches, but will see increasing mid and high clouds late tonight and Sat morning which could limit cooling. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday...High pressure will slide off the coast Saturday, as strengthening surface low pushes into the Great Lakes region and attendant cold front approaches from the west. Partly cloudy skies early with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Expect most of the day to remain dry, with isolated showers during the afternoon and evening, best chances along the coast. Southerly winds develop Sat afternoon allowing temps to climb into the low to mid 50s inland and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Fri...Another cold front will approach the area from the west with limited amount of moisture and push through Sunday morning with cold high pressure to dominate for the most of the upcoming week. Saturday night and Sunday...The next cold front will approach the area from the west with light showers ahead and along the cold front. Models continue to show the best coverage to be Saturday night as omega and low-level convergence is at the highest, therefore continued the mention of chance to likely PoPs Saturday night into Sunday. Showers will linger through mid-morning on Sunday with showers pushing offshore and skies start to clear from NW to SE Sunday afternoon as colder/drier airmass starts to filter into the area. Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s as the best cold air advection comes in Sunday night. Monday through Friday...Arctic high pressure will establish itself over the region through most of next week, but a robust shortwave will dig down into the Deep South, something to watch. The models continue to show a low pressure system developing well offshore as a result from this shortwave. The latest Canadian/Euro model continue to show light showers on the back-side of the low pressure system and reaching the Outer Banks Tuesday and Wednesday, while GFS have little to no rain. Given uncertainty will continue with just slight chance PoPs along the Outer Banks. Airmass is cold, but appears lower levels will remain above freezing across OBX so just have rain as ptype. By Thursday, the ridge builds back with high pressure to continue to dominate the area through Friday. Clouds may start to increase ahead of the next upcoming storm, but remain dry on Friday. with cool NE winds. Expect cold temperatures on Mon and Tue with highs in the in the 40 to 45 dgr range, then a slowly warming through the rest of the week, as high ranging 45 to 50 degrees Wed and Thurs, then upper 50s to around 60 degree Friday. Overnight lows, in the 20s inland to 30s beaches. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 245 PM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Northerly wind gusts to 20 kt will diminish late this afternoon and early evening. Increasing mid and high clouds overnight into Saturday morning, gradually lowering ahead of the next system Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers possible after 21z Saturday with periods of sub-VFR possible. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 230 AM Fri...A few pds of sub VFR poss Sat night as cold front approaches with sct to numerous shra. VFR returns Sun as drier air grad spreads in behind front. VFR will cont Mon and Tue with cold high pres building in from the W. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 230 PM Friday...Latest obs show N/NNE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt and seas 7-10 ft north of Ocracoke and 5-8 ft south. Dropped Gales this afternoon and replaced with SCAs. Winds and seas will be gradually diminishing this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in over the waters. Winds diminish to 10-20 kt late tonight with seas subsiding to 3-7 ft. High pressure will shift off the coast Saturday ahead of approaching cold front. NE winds 5-15 kt Sat morning becoming S 15-25 kt late Sat afternoon and evening. Expect conditions to deteriorate quickly after 4-5 pm Sat. Seas 3-6 ft Sat (highest across the outer central waters). Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 245 PM Fri... A cold front will approach the area with SSW winds increasing 25 to 35 kts Sat night with some Gale conditions likely and therefore went with a Gale Watch from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. When the front pushes through Sunday morning, winds become NW 15 to 20 kts, becoming N Monday. Then winds will increase 15 to 25 kt on Tuesday as a low pressure system develops well offshore. Seas peak 8 to 12 ft outer wtrs Sat night then slowly drop to 5 to 8 ft Sunday. Seas of 4 to 6 ft early Mon drop to 3 to 5 ft late. As N winds increase Tue seas build to 5 to 7 ft and continue through Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF/BM AVIATION...CQD/BM MARINE...CQD/BM

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