Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 311924
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Sun...A high pressure over the northeast U.S. this
afternoon, will shift towards the Atlantic tonight and a ridge will
extend towards the southeast U.S. A low pressure system over central
Canada will push east tonight and Sun. A few showers will be
possible tonight but decrease in coverage late. A cold front,
extending from the low, will move east over the Midwest on Sun and
reach northern FL on Sun evening. During this approach, FL will
remain between the cold front approaching from the north and a
frontal boundary stretching over south FL and Florida Keys. A weak
pressure gradient will prevail on Sun with some increase of moisture
from the south, where 2 inches of PWAT are forecast to reach the
Treasure Coast. A few showers will reach the coastal waters and
coastal counties late Sun morning but as these push inland,
westerlies at the mid levels will push all the convection towards
the east coast in the afternoon plus any activity from the west
coast. Added a slight chance of lightning storms in the afternoon
mainly south of Osceola and Brevard. Temperatures around sunset
tonight will be in the mid-upper 70s dropping to the mid 70s along
hte coast and near 70 in the interior. Highs on Sun will really warm
up to the mid-upper 80s.

Sunday night-Wednesday...A mid-upper level trough axis will cross
the region late Sunday afternoon/evening, driving a reinforcing cold
front across the CWA. Little if any precip will accompany the front
itself, although have held onto a slight chance along coastal areas
from the Cape southward. Cold advection behind the front will
produce min temps in the mid 50s across the far NW, lower 60s I 4
corridor, mid 60s Space Coast but holding near 70 along the Martin
coast. Strong high pressure will build over the area behind the
front early next week, tightening the northerly pressure gradient
and producing breezy/gusty conditions, while keeping forecast dry.
Beach conditions will once gain become very hazardous due to rough
surf and a strong longshore current. Below normal temperatures with
max temps in the 70s areawide Mon and Tue. Tue morning mins will be
the coolest of the short-lived event, ranging from around 50 far NW
to mid/upper 60s far SE.

Thursday-Saturday...The surface high will push off the eastern
seaboard midweek. The airmass will gradually modify/moisten.
Scattered showers (20-30 percent) will gradually return Thu and Fri
with a little higher coverage Fri (40 percent).
Highs lower-mid 80s and overnight lows return to near or above
normal with mid to upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast.

A note about the Tropics...Hurricane season continues through Nov.
30 and it appears we are not finished yet in the Atlantic basin
(specifically the Caribbean). The deterministic 00Z GFS now
brings a quite strong tropical cyclone northward across the
western caribbean on Fri which would have a noticeable impact on
our weather (wetter/windier). The 00Z ECMWF solution continues to
push the tropical cyclone quickly westward into central America
which looks more realistic given the strength of the high pressure
building into the southern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for most of the sites. SCT to BKN cloud covers ranging from
025-050 will continue for the KMLB-KSUA through the evening. Brief
SHRA could affect KSUA and perhaps KFPR this afternoon. Additional
showers are expected to affect most of the terminals late Sun
morning through afternoon. Winds will become calm tonight and
variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sun...Winds will increase to 15-20 knots tonight with seas
building to 6-8 ft offshore. This peak will be short lived with
winds decreasing to 5-10 kt on Sun morning. Local policy has it
that if winds are 10 knots or less with seas of 7 ft a Small Craft
Advisory might not be necessary. Based on the latest guidance,
the advisory was extended through Sun mid-morning as winds drop
below the 10 kt mark in the afternoon. But with seas increasing
again on Sun night, the advisory might be extended through the
weekend and into the week.

Sun night-Thursday...Cold front will push across the waters Sun
night with north winds 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to near
Gale force expected to overspread the waters into Mon morning. Seas
will build to up to 11 ft in the gulf stream, with 6-8 ft nearshore.
Seas will peak late Mon night and slowly subside through at least
Wed. Winds, however, will drop below 20 kt on Mon evening but remain
out of the NE 15 knots Tue and E/NE 15-20 knots Wed, veering E at
similar speeds Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to continue a slow
decrease through the weekend while remaining in Minor Flood Stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  60  71 /  20  30  10   0
MCO  69  87  62  74 /  10  30  10   0
MLB  74  85  67  74 /  20  40  20   0
VRB  75  86  68  77 /  20  40  20   0
LEE  68  87  57  72 /   0  30  10   0
SFB  69  87  60  72 /  10  30  10   0
ORL  71  88  62  74 /  10  30  10   0
FPR  74  85  68  76 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Negron/Spratt


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