Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 190850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the Southeast US will
continue to drift eastward towards the Atlantic waters through
tonight. Locally, east-northeast winds will continue to usher
marine stratocu onshore through the day today, though it will
diminish in coverage as it moves inland. With plenty of dry air in
the mid- levels and a stout inversion above ~900mb, not expecting
any of the stratocu to manage to form showers today. Highs
remaining mild, in the low 80s along the coast and the mid-80s
inland, with low humidity. Will see winds up to 15mph along the
coast this afternoon, veering more East over the interior with
speeds near 10 mph. Moderate onshore flow will continue to
generate rough surf at the beaches.

Remaining dry overnight, with lows in the low to mid-60s inland and
upper 60s to near 70 along the coast.

Wed...High pressure near the GA/SC coast will move east over the
SW Atlc. This will cause the wind flow to become more easterly,
and remain breezy along the coast. There will be a thin band of
moisture around 5K feet that will support scattered marine
stratocumulus clouds, but airmass looks too dry to produce any
measurable rain but cannot rule out a few sprinkles along the
coast. Max temps creep upward a degree or two, still in the mid
80s most areas with comfortable humidity.

Thu-Mon...A trailing ridge axis will slowly press southward and
reach central FL Friday ahead of an approaching cold front pushing
into the Deep South. As a result, low level flow will veer SE
allowing moisture to return to our area, albeit slowly at first.
Have maintained a small PoP (20 percent) for Thu across the south
half of FA but model guidance is trending drier, showing deeper
moisture return Fri. So have drawn a PoP gradient of 30 percent
north and 50 percent south Fri.

The frontal boundary is forecast to ooze across central FL Sat
but upper-level support is not strong enough to produce a clean
frontal passage, so the weak front should stall over south FL this
weekend. Some drying is likely across northern sections this
weekend where there is only a 20 percent chance of rain (or less),
especially north of I-4. The highest rain chances (40-50 percent)
will be south along the Treasure Coast into Mon. Stalled fronts
this time of year with deep moisture and an onshore flow can
produce locally heavy rainfall along the coast. Will be watching
for heavy rain potential along portions of the Treasure coast this
weekend into early next week.

Max temperatures will reach the upper 80s interior and mid 80s
coast late week then settle back into the mid 80s behind the front
across the north and due to clouds/precip south. Min temps will
also tick upward due to easterly flow keeping mins in the low to
mid 70s coast, while inland areas return to the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing through the period, with SCT040-050
along the coast becoming FEW as it drifts inland. Easterly flow
today increasing to around 10kts inland and up to 12kts along the
coast this afternoon, with occasional gusts for some coastal
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...East-Northeast winds today, as high pressure over
the Southeast continues to drift eastward towards the Atlantic.
Winds will remain elevated, at around 10-15kts. Seas continuing to
subside at around 3-4ft today. However, up to 5ft will remain
possible in the Gulf Stream waters, mainly south of the Cape.

Wed-Sat...High pressure will move east from the SE US coast and
over the western Atlantic with a trailing ridge axis settling
south across FL by Fri. This will cause winds to gradually veer
from East Wed, E-SE on Thu-Fri. A weak frontal boundary is
forecast to cross the waters Sat which will produce a wind shift
out of the north.

Pressure gradient will gradually loosen, supporting 12-15 knots
Wed, 10-14 knots on Thu, and 5-10 knots Fri. North gradient
behind the front will support around 10 knots Sat. Seas gradually
subside to 2-4 feet Wed and Thu and 2-3 ft Fri-Sat. Increasing
moisture will bring scattered showers and isolated storms Fri
into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain near Minor
Flood Stage today due to a north wind component, then lower to
Action Stage the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  66  84  69 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  83  69  84  72 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  84  70  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  87  65  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  64  85  67 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  84  66  86  69 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  83  67  84  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leahy
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy


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