Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 262018
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

...Much Colder Temperatures on Tap Thursday through Sunday...

Today-Tonight...Active afternoon, evening and overnight expected
across all of east central Florida. Showers, and later on
thunderstorms, are developing in our area, well ahead of the main
cold front. Extensive mid-level cloud cover has limited overall
instability, which may hamper the strong to severe potential later
today. However, across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
where cloud cover has been sparse, the atmosphere is likely to have
recovered after a round of showers this morning, and is likely
capable of supporting strong storms. The shape and orientation of
showers that have developed from Vero Beach to Ft. Pierce suggest
there is enough shear in the atmosphere to support strong storms.
Will have to keep an eye on storm mode and development this
afternoon, as a few storms could become strong to severe with the
main threat being wind gusts up to 60mph.

After this main batch of stronger convection pushes offshore late
this evening, an area of light to moderate stratiform rain will
overspread central Florida. This activity slowly decreases through
the overnight with much cooler air filtering in behind  the cold
front. By sunrise expect the I-4 corridor to be clear of clouds,
with improving skies from the Space Coast south. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s north of Melbourne, in the low 50s from
Melbourne to Vero Beach, and mid 50s from Ft. Pierce south.

Thursday...Dry. Clearing skies and much colder air advecting into
central Florida. Afternoon highs barely reach 60 degrees from
Melbourne to Kissimmee north, and slightly warmer temps in the mid
60s along the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region. Breezy at
times with winds 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20mph.

Thu night-Sun (previous modified)...High pressure over southern
TX on Thu will build east and the ridge will reach the FL peninsula
Thu night. Then a trough will push a weak and dry reinforcing
cold front quickly east and offshore/away from the SE CONUS early
Sat. The result will be several days of chilly late Feb weather
through Sun morning and dry.

Max temps from Fri-Sat don`t look to get out of the lower-mid 60s
for all but Martin Co (upper 60s). Moderation commences Sun
afternoon/evening as the high starts to slide east into the
Atlantic, with maxes in the upper 60s to around 70F. Widespread
mins in the upper 30s-lower 40s expected. A bit early to mention
in the forecast just yet, however there appears to be at least
some potential for frost early Sun morning as the high center
crests over the peninsula.

Mon-Wed (previous modified)...Mid level ridge will build over FL
and the SE CONUS next week as a strong Atlantic high pressure
ridge slides east of Florida and remains in control of the local
wx pattern. Expect dry wx with temps increasing from near normal
Mon (highs in the mid 70s) to well above (highs in the mid 80s)
through at least mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing across
the region, with TEMPO groups having been added to most terminals.
These TEMPO groups will need to be refined as showers/storms
develop, move on, and then as the main line associated with the
front push through the area. Greatest impacts likely to be from
periodic low ceilings (possible MVFR/IFR conditions) and strong wind
gusts up to 35-40 knots. Conditions should be much improved after
midnight tonight, with skies clearing around sunrise Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions this afternoon into
tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Showers are already
developing across the waters, and expect more to form as the day
progresses with thunderstorms also a possibility. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe, and capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 35-40 knots and dangerous lightning strikes.

After sunset winds will also increase, becoming 15-20 kts nearshore
and 20-25 kts offshore. Seas building to 4-5 ft nearshore and 6-7 ft
offshore near daybreak. Small craft will need to exercise caution in
offshore waters by early evening, and then a Small Craft Advisory
will go into effect for all offshore Atlantic waters after 10 PM,
and for the nearshore waters from Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet
after midnight.

Thursday...Hazardous boating conditions across the east central
Florida waters. Behind the cold front, north to northwest winds
increase to 20 knots nearshore, and 20-25 knots offshore. Seas 4-6
feet nearshore, and much higher up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream.
Conditions will slowly start to improve in the afternoon.

Thu night-Sat...Winds will continue to decrease on Thu night as
ridge builds in from the west and the pressure gradient relaxes.
Seas will also subside through the night, dropping below 7 feet
Thu evening. Winds on Fri will be from the NW at 10-15 kt. Then on
Fri night, a trough will build in along the U.S east coast,
increasing the pressure gradient over the waters and local winds
will increase from the NW to around 20 kt across the offshore
waters and seas up to 6 ft. But these will be short-lived and
should drop below advisory by Sat late afternoon.

Sat night-Mon...High pressure will reach the FL peninsula on Sat
night and reach the Atlantic waters east of FL on Sun night. This
means that local winds will veer rapidly from the north on Sat
night to east on Sun afternoon and south by Mon morning while
remaining for the most part below 10-15 kt. Seas will subside
during the period from 3-6 ft on Sat night to 2-3 ft on Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(previous modified) The cold, dry post frontal air mass reaching
east central FL tonight will produce min RH values in the mid 30s-
lower 40s areawide Thu afternoon, upper 20s-lower 30s on Fri
afternoon, and lower-upper 30s this weekend. While wind speeds
will remain well below critical levels, the aridity of this air
mass is sure to drive ERC values upward through at least this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  59  38  61 /  80   0   0   0
MCO  49  60  40  61 /  80   0   0   0
MLB  52  61  42  63 /  80  10   0   0
VRB  52  64  42  64 /  70  10   0   0
LEE  46  59  38  61 /  80   0   0   0
SFB  47  60  39  62 /  80   0   0   0
ORL  48  60  40  61 /  80   0   0   0
FPR  54  64  41  65 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

$$

Rodriguez/Negron


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