Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 072105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021


Current... Scattered showers ongoing across the offshore Atlantic
waters, and remaining dry over land. Windy conditions continue
this afternoon, with wind speeds reaching 15-20 mph inland and
around 25 mph along the coast with gust near 35 mph. A wind
advisory is in effect along the coastal counties until 6 PM this
evening. This afternoon will remain dry to mostly dry, as cool,
dry air has filtered into the area behind the frontal passage.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s across the north and low
70s across the south. A high surf advisory has been issued along
the coast for large breaking waves up to 8 ft in the surf zone for
this afternoon, lasting until 7 PM tomorrow.

Tonight-Tomorrow... A strong high pressure system will build into
Florida overnight and into tomorrow. As the high pressure system
shifts over the Florida peninsula, the low pressure system located
offshore of the Treasure coast will shift east and northward.
Breezy conditions continue tomorrow, with winds out of the
northeast at around 10-15 mph with gusts near 20 mph. Cool dry air
remains in place over the local area tomorrow, allowing for below
normal temperatures and no mentionable rain chances across ECFL.
Skies will continue to be clear to mostly clear through tomorrow.

Overnight temperatures for tonight and into tomorrow will be in
the  mid to upper 40s across the north and across inland
counties, and low 50s from Brevard southward, except in the upper
50s and low 60s along the immediate coast of St. Lucie and Martin
counties. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s and
low 70s across ECFL.

Tuesday-Sunday (Modified)...The upper-level trough that brought
rain to the southeast over the weekend will deepen as it slowly
pushes downstream of the area and as the upper-level ridge
upstream builds. The aforementioned upper atmospheric setup will
result in a slow progression of the shortwave downstream which
will keep the trough over the western Atlantic waters through the
beginning of the workweek. This means we can expect a gradual
downward trend in the breezy northeasterly winds across the area,
especially along the coast and coastal waters through the first
part of the week. High pressure will build to the west of Florida
with easterly/northeasterly flow expected through the week as the
area remains on the upstream side of the high. The region will
remain dry as the upper-level ridge takes over.

However, a minor shortwave will attempt to move along the base of
the upper-level ridge on Wednesday and into Thursday; but at this
time, it isn`t expected to cause any rain to develop across the
County Warning Area. Guidance is in good agreement that any
potential precipitation that develops will remain to the southeast
and mostly off the coast of southeastern FL.

A gradual rise in temperatures throughout the week is forecast with
highs increasing from the low-to mid-70s to start off the week and
rising into the mid 70s to low 80s by the end of the week. Lows are
expected to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s and rise into the mid
50s to mid 60s by the end of the week. Even warmer temperatures are
expected to start off the weekend as winds become more easterly and
even slightly southeasterly with the high slowly pushing east across
the southeast. Temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 80s for highs
with lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

On Sunday, the ridge axis shifts south of the area ahead of an
approaching front which will produce a S/SW flow and very warm
temps in the mid 80s for most of the area, except lower 80s near
the coast as a SE sea breeze develops. No rain expected.


.AVIATION... VFR conditions through the TAF period. SKC for most of
the TAF sites this afternoon, except a few low clouds streaming
across the southern terminals. Breezy conditions continue into this
evening , with winds out of the north around 15-20 KT with gusts up
to 25KT this afternoon. After sundown winds are forecast to drop
down below 10 KT before increasing once again to around 15 KT with
gusts up to 20-22KT. No mentionable rain chances through the TAF


Current... Ongoing scattered showers across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Cell movement is towards the south around 18 KT. Current
buoy data shows seas are around 9 ft with winds NNW at 25 KT.
Windy conditions continue this afternoon, with winds around 25KT
and gusts near 35 KT. Seas are expected to remain elevated and
continue to build this afternoon and into early evening, with seas
building to 8-10 ft.

Tonight-Tomorrow... Hazardous wind and sea conditions continue
tonight and into tomorrow. Seas are forecast to remain 8-10 ft
overnight before slowly decreasing through the day, first starting
in the offshore Volusia waters and expanding southward through the
day. Seas are expected to be 6-9ft by daybreak, and 5-8 ft by
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be from the NE through the time
period, with wind speeds remaining elevated tonight around 25 KT
with higher gusts, and breezy tomorrow with winds around 15-20 KT.
A small craft advisory remains in effect for all of the Atlantic
waters through the morning. A small craft advisory will continue
for all the waters except nearshore Volusia from tomorrow morning
and going through the day.

Tuesday-Friday...Conditions will remain fair to poor for small
craft. Persistent east-northeast winds 15kts across the north and
15-20 knots across the south will maintain seas 4-6 ft Tue-Wed.
Combined seas will increase mid to late week as the long fetch of
E/NE flow will generate a swell that builds seas back to 7 ft
over the offshore waters.


DAB  48  66  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  70  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  53  70  55  73 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  54  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  45  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  48  69  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  54  71  55  74 /   0  10  10   0


FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60



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