Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 161037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
437 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019


Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and
evening across northwest Montana, as well as southwest
Montana/north central Idaho/Lemhi County. Lemhi County has the
best chance of measurable rainfall today. Daytime temperatures
will be near to or slightly below the seasonal average.

Relatively cool daytime temperatures will continue across the
Northern Rockies Wednesday through Saturday. Conditions will be
mostly dry outside of shower activity across northwest Montana on
Wednesday/Thursday. However, daytime winds will intensify for
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be
common across much of western Montana.

Model guidance suggests that a significant warm-up will occur over
the Northern Rockies Sunday through the middle of next week. This
warmth will be in response to Four Corners high pressure
developing and influencing a larger ridge of high pressure over
the western US. Most models favor the ridge axis to move across
Montana during the Tuesday through Thursday period. The ridge
axis location is important, as it will direct that warm air and
possibly moisture related to the Southwest US Monsoon over the
region. Models are more in agreement with respect to the warmth
than the moisture at this point.


.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop again this
afternoon with the favored areas being southwest Montana and
Lemhi County...thus KSMN and KBTM are again the most likely to be
impacted. The convective threat will also linger latest at these late as 17/0600z at KBTM.



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