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000
FXUS65 KMSO 090900
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.DISCUSSION...A swath of precipitation continues to move from
east to west over the Continental Divide and into northwest
Montana early this morning. Showers will be light during this
time, but there is high confidence that much heavier rainfall will
occur this afternoon through this evening due to a combination of
lingering rain and redeveloping thunderstorms. This will create a
scenario for excess runoff issues as a result, particularly along
and north of Highway 2 where the heaviest rainfall will be most
likely.

Showers and thunderstorms will also impact locations south of
Highway 2 all the way through north central Idaho, west central
Montana, and into southwest Montana. In fact, while today`s storms
will still carry a threat for heavy downpours (much like those
from yesterday), there is a higher potential for more organized
thunderstorms to form this afternoon. Prior to storms developing,
skies could clear for a time, which would allow the atmosphere to
destabilize and aid in thunderstorm development. Short term high
resolution models lend confidence to this, as they depict an area
of stronger, more developed storms blossoming over central Idaho
and then move northward, impacting west central Montana along the
I-90 corridor before shifting northward into northwest Montana.
Stronger storms could produce small hail in addition to heavy
rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds.

All this to say: it`s going to be another active, wet, and stormy
day for the region. Plan for these conditions as you go about your
day, particularly this afternoon through this evening.

Lingering storms and showers will persist overnight and into
Saturday, but with intensity and coverage easing up a bit by
Sunday.

When will the region break free from this active, daily
thunderstorm pattern we seem to be stuck in? The answer doesn`t
seem to be any time soon. The outlook beyond Sunday for the
Northern Rockies remains fairly wet and active right through the
first half of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Expect another afternoon and evening of thunderstorms
producing localized heavy downpours, gusty outflow winds, and
lightning beginning after 09/1800Z and continuing well past sunset
for most locations. KGPI and KMSO has already seen periodic
showers already this morning, with on-and-off showers lowering
ceilings to MVFR and IFR categories for brief periods of time.
This should continue through the morning before skies clear a bit
and allow for more convective development to occur after 09/1800Z.
KGPI should see the most prolonged impacts from persistent
rainfall and thunderstorms through at least 10/0600Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$