Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000 FXUS64 KOHX 162356 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 656 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 .UPDATE...
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FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Showers are starting to develop over the east and south with an upper low just off to our east, and another upper low over the Plains. CAMs continue isolated to scattered coverage briefly this afternoon before a break and additional chances for rain tomorrow. The low to our east will move northward, and the upper low to our west will sneak closer to the area allowing for additional southerly flow and moisture transport to the region. This will increase coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon compared to today. Not everyone will see rain, but CAMs do show more scattered convection during the late morning and afternoon, and could put down heavy rain at times. Chances for showers and a few storms will continue Friday night into Saturday morning as well. On Saturday during the day, the low will weaken slightly, but plenty of moisture will remain around for rain chances to continue especially in the afternoon with diurnal help. Trends will continue for Sunday as well with little change to the upper pattern. Getting into next week, we will start to see the effects of a strong upper low developing in the Plains and moving east into the Great Lakes region. Strong southerly flow Monday and Tuesday will keep largely diurnal chances for convection in the forecast. But models are trending faster with the stronger upper low and cold front, which could bring prefrontal showers and storms as early as the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday. Right now its still too soon to assess the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms, but with our first strong cold front of the Fall season, its definitely something to keep an eye on next week. Conditions look pretty dry once the front moves through later on Wednesday and Thursday, with cooler temps possible as well. Models showing highs in the 70s Thursday, and mid 70s to low 80s Friday. && .AVIATION...
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00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Scattered/broken mid-level clouds continue with a few SHRA across the Mid State. Some fog is possible at CSV 09z-12z, dissipating thereafter. VFR CIGs will slowly degrade to MVFR/IFR after 15z Fri as clouds and rain showers move north. A SE wind around 5 knots will persist thru the TAF period.
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&& .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........Schaper

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