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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KOHX 281134
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Memorial Day)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Good overall consensus agreement between latest CAMs, North
American, and global model runs through this upcoming forecast
period. Light showers moving east to west approaching Cumberland
Plateau Region as these early morning hours have progressed.
Upper level low currently over western TN will move southeastward
and then eastward as morning hours progress and eventually be
absorbed this afternoon into a broad upper level closed low aloft
associated with a southern Atlantic weather system. This upper
level low circulation will bring additional cloudiness to our
area, but any shower chances including a rumble of thunder or
two, should be mainly confined to Cumberland Plateau Region.
Highs today will reflect this additional cloudiness with strong
surface riding influences to our north ushering in a colder
airmass across our area. Thus highs today will only range from
mid 70s for locations around and west of I-24 Corridor with
highs ranging only in the lower 60s Upper Cumberland Region to
lower 70s just east of I-24 Corridor. Broad upper level closed
low will move east northeastward into eastern NC by late Memorial
Day afternoon, but will continue to influences our weather by
continuing to usher in additional cloudiness at least over eastern
portions of our area. A surface high pressure center looks to
build into western portions of our area as the late afternoon
hours on Memorial Day progresses also. Some early evening showers
and a rumble or two of thunder may be possible across Cumberland
Plateau Region tonight, but other than a few isolated showers
trying to form across Upper Cumberland Region during the afternoon
hours on Memorial Day, remainder of our area is expected to
remain dry. Lows tonight will be seasonally cool mainly in the low
to mid 50s, possible some upper 40s higher elevations of Upper
Cumberland Region. Highs on Memorial Day will generally span the
70s. Simply, as pleasant of a late Spring Day one could ask for
outdoor Memorial Day activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

As a broad upper level Omega Block continues to build across
contiguous U.S. and southern Canada through next Saturday, an
unsettled weather pattern will become increasingly established
across our area resulting in mainly isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. A warming trend
will also commence as apex of surface high pressure influences
remain to our east. Lows Monday night and highs on Tuesday around
seasonal normal values will warm to seasonally warm values late
work week into first part of weekend. Lows will be well
established in the 60s late work week with highs by next Saturday
ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

We start off the day with VFR conditions across Middle Tennessee.
Surface high pressure centered far to our north is keeping a N/NE
flow in place today. Look for surface winds to increase several
knots during the day. A deepening upper low will drift eastward
over the mid state today, and will be responsible for producing
MVFR ceilings for much of the afternoon and evening, especially
along the Cumberland Plateau, along with some showers mainly east
of I-65.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  54  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    73  54  79  60 /  10  10  10  10
Crossville     64  49  70  54 /  30  30  20  10
Columbia       76  52  79  58 /  10  10  10  10
Cookeville     65  52  72  55 /  30  20  10  10
Jamestown      60  50  71  53 /  50  20  20  10
Lawrenceburg   75  53  77  57 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   75  52  78  57 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        75  51  79  59 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose