000
FXUS64 KOHX 230454
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1054 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure is retreating off to the east this afternoon with
return flow bringing warmer temperatures to Middle Tennessee. Look
for extensive high and mid clouds overnight as the next active
weather system approaches from the west. We`ll start introducing
POP`s during the day tomorrow, but surface dew points are
currently in the teens with even some single digits, so it will
take some time for the boundary layer to moisten up enough for
precipitation to start reaching the ground. Thunderstorm potential
with this is system is questionable given the dearth of
instability. At this time, it appears that fropa will occur late
Thursday night and early Friday, with the surface low passing
close by to the north. This means we will see considerable wrap-
around moisture with light precipitation lasting into Friday
night. Total QPF from tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning
ranges from 1/2 to 1", which is little cause for concern given the
dryness of the past week. There may be some wintry precipitation
on the tail end of this system late Friday night and early
Saturday, with temperatures on the Cumberland Plateau just
touching the freezing mark Saturday morning. Considerable
cloudiness will linger throughout the weekend, and then a weak
shortwave will bring a few more showers to the region Sunday
night. Temperatures through the next 7 days will remain at or
above seasonal normals, but still nothing resembling the spring-
like readings we observed earlier this month. There is nothing at
this time that points to any hazardous weather for at least the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.


Frontal boundary will approach and reach the MS river by the end
of this taf period. In advance of that, look for cloudiness to
lower and thicken with scattered shower activity to reach the taf
areas aft 12z. Aft 18Z, the shower coverage will become more
widespread and will be the prevailing weather type. Otw, IFR cigs
are expected after 18z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........21