562
FXUS64 KOHX 150417
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1117 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through Saturday evening with chances
  for damaging winds, large hail, flooding, and tornadoes.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 40 mph through
  Saturday evening.

- Locally heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-
  lying, and poor drainage areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Forecast remains on track for widespread heavy showers and
scattered severe thunderstorms through Saturday evening. A large
and strong low pressure system will lift up across the Great
Lakes through the day as a secondary wave forms over the TN Valley
and lifts northeastward as a cold front approaches from the west.
These features will draw deep moisture northward into bands of
strong vertical motion. Powerful winds with this system will
create deep layer shear favorable for supercells and possibly some
tornadoes.

Early Saturday morning storms could bring scattered severe weather
and heavy downpours with all modes possible, although storms will
be weakening as they move eastward into the drier and more stable
environment over Middle TN, outrunning the strongest LLJ and axis
of greatest low level instability.

Daytime Saturday will bring widespread heavy showers and
thunderstorms as the second wave comes into play. Models are
showing bands of very heavy rainfall. Some areas may have more
than 2 or 3 inches of rain with localized flash flooding. All
severe modes remain in play with damaging winds, tornadoes, and
large hail all possible. Greatest risks will come in the afternoon
and evening.

Gusty winds will continue through the day into Saturday evening.
The winds will be strongest early Saturday morning and again
Saturday evening with non-thunderstorm gust around 40mph at
times.

Most of the heavy showers and storms will be done by midnight
Saturday evening with cooler temps and some residual scattered
showers for Sunday. Skies will clear out and winds will settle
Sunday night as cooler and dry high pressure moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Dry high pressure will be in place Monday and Tuesday with high in
the 50s and 60s Monday, jumping to 60s and 70s Tuesday. In spite
of weekend rain, some fire weather concerns return mid next week
as warm, dry, and breezy conditions develop. Next chance of rain
arrives Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves
through the area. Late week will be a little on the cool side of
normal. Thursday and Friday look dry with another chance for
showers Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Based much of the TAFs on the latest HRRR model runs. VFR
conditions at the beginning of the TAF will deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR from 08-12Z as SHRA/TSRA move across airports.
Improvement back to MVFR/VFR is expected by late morning/early
afternoon, but additional SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs and
gusts up to 40 knots will impact airports Saturday late
afternoon/evening. Gusty south winds up to 30 knots will continue
through Saturday afternoon before subsiding and becoming
southwesterly Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  74  53  61 /  80 100 100  20
Clarksville    63  72  48  56 /  90 100 100  60
Crossville     56  69  51  62 /  50 100 100  60
Columbia       61  72  51  61 /  80 100 100  20
Cookeville     59  70  52  61 /  60 100 100  50
Jamestown      58  69  52  62 /  50 100 100  60
Lawrenceburg   61  72  52  62 /  80 100 100  20
Murfreesboro   61  74  52  62 /  70 100 100  30
Waverly        61  70  47  56 /  90 100  90  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT Saturday night for TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Shamburger