434
FXUS64 KOHX 160047
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
747 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A few showers over the Cumberland Plateau continue to stream in
from KY at update time. These will persist for a few more hours,
then we`ll likely start to see some fog tonight. I`ve gone ahead
and thrown in a little better coverage for fog, but not sure it`ll
be too densely widespread, so I`ll refrain from an advisory at
this point and at the midnight shift take a look later tonight.

After what should be a quiet day tomorrow, our active weather
pattern looks to pick back up again early Friday morning. CAMs
show the potential for showers and storms to move after midnight
tomorrow night, then a lull through the late morning/early
afternoon hours before another wave of storms moves into the area
Friday afternoon and evening. If you`re paying attention, you`ll
already know SPC has a Marginal Risk across the area for Friday.
After taking a look a severe weather parameters, I`m not overly
impressed at this point, but it`ll be worth watching over the next
day or so. There will be plenty of shear and decent lapse rates
by Friday evening, but models across the board struggle to get 500
J/Kg of instability in here at any point Friday. We will start to
get into the HREF time frame over the next 12 hours, so we`ll see
how more of the CAMs handle Friday in tonight and tomorrow`s
forecast packages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areal coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
should shift eastward as remainder of afternoon hours progress
with rainfall chances ending early evening hours Upper Cumberland
Region. Not expecting any strong to severe storms as of this time.
Upper level ridging influences will build into mid state region as
tonight through at least morning hours on Thursday with maybe a
stray shower or thunderstorm or two northwestern portions of our
area as afternoon hours on Thursday progress. Still looks like
afternoon highs temperatures today will span the 70s with lows
tonight mainly spanning the upper 50s. Highs on Thursday will
become even warmer as surface high pressure influences shift
southeastward into deep south. Highs on Thursday afternoon will
range low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations just
west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will return to our area as
Thursday Night progresses as more of a southwesterly upper level
flow pattern begins to develop with increased low level moisture
across at least western portions of our area. A better chance of
showers and thunderstorms is expected as Friday progresses. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible during afternoon hours on
Friday. Lows on Thursday night will be quite mild in low to mid
60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region with highs
on Friday returning to spanning the 70s. This unsettled weather
pattern will persist through Friday Night into at least first
part of upcoming weekend. Look for dry conditions to once again
return to our area as Saturday night through Sunday progresses.
Enough residual moisture with proximity to eastern fridges of
upper level ridging influences could support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across locations just west of and
across Cumberland Plateau Region Saturday Night into Sunday. Those
upper level ridging influences building in across our area will
result in quite seasonably warm temperatures by Sunday afternoon
with highs mainly in mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s for locations
just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Upper level
ridging influences will continue to build across our area as first
part of next work week progresses with warmest high temperatures
of spring season possible with highs potentially as high as the
lower 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon.
Shower and storm chances will return to our area as Tuesday night
into Wednesday progresses. Total rainfall amounts from this
afternoon through next Wednesday afternoon will range from just
over an inch to around two inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Cigs continue to bounce between VFR and MVFR. This will be the
trend through the majority of this TAF cycle as a surface low
continues to move NE out of the area. Showers remain over the
Upper Cumberland, but will diminish through the evening. Winds of
around 10 kts gusting between 12-18 kts will also diminish through
the evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Fog is
possible tonight, but greatest chances will be over the the Upper
Cumberland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  84  65  77 /  10  10  30  90
Clarksville    58  83  64  75 /   0  20  50  90
Crossville     57  78  58  72 /  30  10  10  80
Columbia       58  84  64  75 /   0  10  30  90
Cookeville     59  78  60  73 /  30  10  20  80
Jamestown      57  77  58  73 /  30  10  10  80
Lawrenceburg   58  83  64  75 /   0  10  30  80
Murfreesboro   59  83  62  76 /  10  10  30  80
Waverly        57  83  64  74 /   0  20  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Unger