


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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654 FXUS64 KOHX 161800 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - A Heat Advisory is now in effect for Thursday afternoon as Heat Index values are expected to climb above 105 degrees west of the Cumberland Plateau. - Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the foreseeable future. - The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any storm. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday Night) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not a ton going on at forecast time, however we do have some showers and storms moving across our northern half this morning. These should be fairly unimpactful other than to say when these clear out of any given area, the skies will clear out and the heat and humidity will start to crank up. Additional storm development is expected this afternoon, much like we`ve seen the last couple of weeks -- diurnally driven activity that will die out by the early evening hours. Of course, any of these storms will run the risk of lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Over the next couple of days, much of our weather influences will be driven by a tropical wave that is moving east to west along the northern Gulf of America and a weak shortwave just to the north of Middle TN. The combination of the two are expected to do two things: increase PoPs chances for our northern half and decrease them for our southern half as weak subsidence is experienced south of I-40. This subsidence will also drive up temperatures/dew points a few more degrees. For this reason, I`m going to go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon as the coverage of 105-110 Heat Index values are looking more likely west of the Cumberland Plateau. This potential will exist on Friday as well, but I think we`ll take the issuance of Heat Advisories one day at a time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered storm chances will persist right through the upcoming weekend. It is summer, after all. Heat Index values should relax back below 105 degrees each afternoon, however there are some indications that by the start of next week, upper ridging will amplify across the deep south and up into the TN/OH Valleys. While scattered diurnal storm chances likely will not end, Heat Index values will probably climb back into at least advisory territory. In the end, we don`t have any organized severe weather threats over the next 7 days, but if you have outdoor plans, keep an eye on the sky each afternoon and stay hydrated! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A combination of TSRA and SHRA is currently impacting BNA & MQY, as well as the eastern terminals (SRB and CSV), due to a boundary moving through Middle TN. VCTS and TEMPOs have been utilized in various fashions for the next few hours, though it seems the worst is over for BNA & MQY. Winds are favoring a S to SW direction at 5-8 kts unless influenced by TS activity. Conditions once again calm this evening with light/variable winds and perhaps some patchy fog near SRB and CSV. Tomorrow`s weather will be similar to today, and we`ll need to see how convective activity begins late tomorrow morning to address TAF mentioning for TS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 96 77 93 / 20 40 40 60 Clarksville 76 93 76 91 / 10 40 30 60 Crossville 70 89 70 86 / 20 40 30 80 Columbia 75 94 74 92 / 10 30 30 60 Cookeville 72 90 72 88 / 20 40 40 70 Jamestown 71 89 71 86 / 30 40 40 80 Lawrenceburg 74 93 74 91 / 20 30 20 60 Murfreesboro 75 95 74 93 / 20 40 30 60 Waverly 75 93 74 91 / 10 30 30 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>009- 023>030-056>062-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Sizemore