Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 181106 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 506 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 444 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...Uptick in thunderstorms today with isolated severe thunderstorm potential across northern portions of the southeast plains... Cold front will push through the eastern plains today bringing a gradual increase in low level moisture along and to its north. Moisture return is rather slow though and soundings still exhibit inverted V structures, particularly over the mountains and most of the adjacent plains. Exception will be across northern El Paso and Kiowa counties where low level easterly winds may have more time to advect higher dew points westward yielding CAPE values in the 700- 1500 J/kg range. Deep layer shears (around 30 kts) look best across northern El Paso county, and while gusty winds to around 50 to 60 mph could occur just about anywhere across the mountains and southeast plains given dry low layers, chance of hail to around 1 inch may be more limited to northeast portions of the area. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will continue for all areas with record to near record highs possible at KALS where the old record of 90 degrees set in 1989 may come very close. It appears KCOS and KPUB should stay about 5 to 8 degrees shy of their old records (PUB 104 in 2012 and previous years, COS 98 in 2012). Finally, although winds will stay on the lighter side under the upper high today, the hot weather will result in relative humidity values dropping below the critical 15 percent threshold for fire weather concerns. With high based thunderstorms expected this afternoon, there could be some isolated dry lightning associated with these. As fuels are not deemed critical just yet, no fire weather highlights will be issued. But concern does increase for fire starts as the hot dry weather begins to cure fuels. -KT .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 444 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Saturday... The upper-high will begin to propagate southwest on Saturday, bringing in stronger northwest flow to our area aloft. This will allow for the translation of some shortwave energy over the region, which will assist in sparking thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, especially over the mountains. Shear will be a bit on the weaker side, both directionally and speed-wise, but CAPE is expected to be around 1000 J/kg and with the right orographics along with the moisture circulating around the upper-high convective development should not be an issue. Currently, majority of models are resolving storms initiating over the central mountains and parts of the Continental Divide around midday Saturday before expanding and moving east into more suitable atmosphere. Once storms progress onto the plains they are likely to intensify, and the greatest threat for severe weather will be in the evening when this occurs. Main severe risks at this time appear to be up to 1.5 inch hail and 70 mph winds. In addition, if storms manage to train over a burn scar flash flooding could also be a concern. Finally, dry lightning will be possible over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and although most of the fuels are still green, it is worth noting the possibility. However, no fire weather highlights will be needed at this time. Sunday... A shortwave will propagate over the high plains late Sunday afternoon, which will send a cold front south across the plains. The timing of this cold front is still fairly uncertain between the models, with the main arguments being between the front passing down just after midday or later into late-afternoon to early-evening. The difference in the timing of the front will make all the difference for Sunday`s forecast. The earlier solution will bring down the high temperatures on Sunday significantly while also increasing the potential strength of thunderstorms across the plains, with direct daytime heating accompanying the lift. As the front passes, gusty northerly winds will set in over the plains, although gusts are not expected to exceed 30 mph. High temps will be dependent on the timing of the front, but our current forecast along with guidance shows highs in the mid-90s over the plains and upper-80s over the higher terrain. Monday and Onward... Monday will see a respite from the oppressive heat, with highs dipping back down into the 70s-80s. This will depend in part on the strength of the cold front on Sunday, but a noticeable cooldown is expected regardless. A drier period will occur from Tuesday through Thursday next week as an upper ridge builds in over the area, with temperatures returning to the upper-90s by the end of the week.
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 444 AM MDT Fri Jun 18 2021 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today. Gusty winds near VCTS could bring erratic gusty winds to the terminals, though sparse coverage may preclude mention at this point. KCOS and KPUB should see gusty northeast to east winds this morning with gusts to 25 kts possible at times. Erratic gusts to 40-50 kts will be possible near high based thunderstorms this afternoon. Activity should wind down this evening with VFR conditions under high cloudiness expected overnight. -KT
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&& .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...KT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.