Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 261551 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 951 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Just a quick update to expand precipitation across the Plains for the rest of this morning. Current radar imagery has a band of heavier snowfall, running from near Trinidad, northeast to near Lamar. Under this snow band, snow rates of one to two inches per hour are expected. Total accumulations of an additional 2 to 4 inches are possible through this afternoon, with locally higher amounts under the heavier band. Elsewhere, the forecast looks good, with light to moderate snowfall continuing into the afternoon. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 408 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Ongoing winter storm continues to impact southern Colorado. Little lackluster snowfall amounts over Colorado Springs proper due to the main snow band staying north and south of the city, but otherwise snow totals seem on track still. Banded snowfall is still expected across the region with an emphasis on the San Luis Valley and the southern plains. Additional snowfall amounts will be dependent on where the snow bands form. Right now the thought is for the main snow band to form over the southern portions of the I-25 corridor, extending east towards Kansas. The San Luis Valley is also expected to see some significant accumulations throughout the day. And of course, the eastern San Juans, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and the Wet Mountains will continue to significant accumulations. Warnings and Advisories seem on track still, but there was some discussion about upgrading the southeastern plains to a Warning, but the low snow amounts and the additional snow amounts didn`t add to high enough amounts, therefore the Advisories over the far eastern plains will remain. Travel has been and will continue to be hazardous across the region. The morning commute is expected to be very difficult, so if you need to travel, please use caution and have emergency preparedness kits in your vehicle. It will be VERY cold across the region today. Expect high temperatures in the teens over the plains, the 20s over the mountain valleys, and the single digits over the mountains. The overnight lows will be record breaking with widespread single digits lows over the plains, mountain valleys, and mountains, with some locations reaching below zero. Meteorology: The upper level system has merged with shortwaves over the American Southwest and as the day progresses will evolve into a cut-off low that will slowly propagate to the southeast. The locations and the orientation of the moisture flux will continue to pump Pacific based moisture towards southern Colorado. The best timing for heavy snowfall will be during the morning into the afternoon over the SLV and the southeast mountains before the low becomes cut-off, once the low cuts off, the strongest orographic and QG forcing will be to the south of Colorado. The bands that form over the mountains (spreading over the lower elevations) will have convective elements as small values of CAPE are being resolved, so snowfall rates should be enhanced to 2-3" an hour under the strongest bands. Towards the overnight, surface flow will shift to the northwest over the far eastern plains which will extend snowfall over the Colorado-New Mexico-Oklahoma border due to orographic forcings. Otherwise snowfall should shut off before midnight across the region. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges: 1) Returning precip (wintry mix) chances by midweek, especially for southern mountains and plains 2) Moderating trend with temps for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend Main focus this forecast period continues to be with what will become of the system currently impacting the region. Once again, this system will need to be closely monitored as returning precip chances are appearing likely for the southern mountains and the plains some of which could be a wintry mix. Tuesday will note slightly warmer temps with highs rebounding back into the 30s. Likely cooler conditions across far southern CO, where this slowly pivoting upper low will be providing cloud cover and some potential for additional precip. While additional snow chances are possible Tuesday, they will be situated closer to the CO/NM border but focusing further south during the day. Any additional snow amounts, if they occurred, would be very minor. Turn attention to Tuesday night into Wednesday, when confidence is growing for returning precip chances for parts of the southern mountains and plains. Guidance coming into better agreement with taking this upper low on a more northward/northeastward track through mid week, with increasing precip chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. While confidence is growing for this track and returning precip, still do have some lower confidence on the west/northwest extent to the precip shield as well as ptypes. Some guidance swings the precip all the way to the I-25 corridor, while others keep it more over the far eastern plains. At this time, did increase pops over much of the area to convey more recent trends with guidance, but did keep the highest pops over the far southeast plains where confidence is higher for observing precip. As has been mentioned, ptypes will need to be monitored as slight warming with this system will support varying ptypes. Of main concern, is freezing rain over the far eastern plains. While guidance varies on placement and extent of this freezing rain potential, most do hint at this possibility. Forecast soundings during this time frame show a distinct warm layer in the lower levels. So, did increase wording in the grids/forecast and added some minor ice accums, and will also increase the overall messaging. While likely an outlier, the NAM produces some significant ice accums near the CO/KS border. Again, an outlier at this time, but the potential is there and will continue to keep a close eye on it. Moderating trend expected for the remainder of the week, as this system slowly departs to the east. Rain/Snow will remain possible over parts of the plains on Wednesday, with even an additional chance for freezing rain Wednesday night before this system and precip development shift east. However, at this time, conditions are looking to be warm enough for mainly rain. Could see at least a minimal risk for a wintry mix though. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 408 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020 IFR to LIFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the day, either it by low cloud ceilings or low visibility due to snowfall. Flight categories will improve too VFR over KCOS and KPUB around midnight, whereas KALS is expected to have low clouds creating MVFR to IFR conditions throughout the overnight. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ089- 093>099. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058>064- 069>071-076>080-083-086>088. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ065>068- 072>075. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for COZ081-082-084-085. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...SKELLY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.