Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 010008
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
705 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into Virginia by this evening. A cold
front will move across the area on Monday. High pressure will build
into the region on Tuesday before a storm system moves across the
Gulf Coast and Southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The forecast today has been dominated by cloud cover, or the lack
thereof. As of 3pm, low clouds generally remain along the I-85
corridor and locations north along a wedge front. The average high
in Greensboro today is 56, and the temperature was 63 at 2.
Meanwhile, low clouds cleared much earlier in Fayetteville, and
instead of simply reaching their average high of 62, they have tied
the daily record high of 83. With the instability that developed as
clouds departed, isolated showers have developed, primarily between
US-1 and I-95. These showers will come to an end by sunset.

Elsewhere, low pressure across Wisconsin will move northeast across
Upper Michigan into Quebec and Ontario by Monday morning. The cold
front with the low pressure system extends all the way south into
Texas, and the front will approach the Triad by daybreak. Felt that
the previous forecast was too fast by a few hours with the arrival
of rain showers, and have pushed back the arrival time. The low
temperature map tonight will actually look very similar to a map of
climatological highs for this time of year - upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY and MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The cold front will move across the region Monday morning, with the
highest pops during the morning hours but showers continuing for a
couple hours after frontal passage. Considering the timing of the
frontal passage, a non-diurnal temperature trend was called for. Do
not think that the Triad and Triangle will have temperatures rise
much at all, and they may simply keep steady temperatures throughout
the day. However, before the front passes in the southeast, strong
southwesterly wind should allow temperatures to climb into the upper
60s, even if it`s not record-tying heat like today.

By Monday evening, the chance of rain should be gone from all
locations, with partial clearing occurring as high pressure briefly
builds in. The northwesterly wind will bring a return to seasonal
temperatures, with lows in the 30s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

A northwest flow aloft gives way to flat mid-level ridging on
Tuesday with fair weather, increasing high clouds during the
afternoon and near to just below normal temperatures. Highs will
range in the lower to mid 50s.

NWP guidance is in good agreement now with the eastward progression
of a compact closed low across the ArkLaTex on Tuesday that moves
east into western TN and northern MS on Tuesday evening and then
into northern GA and eastern TN by daybreak Wednesday. An associated
surface low develops across the northern Gulf on Tuesday evening,
moves off the GA/SC coast on Wednesday morning before moving
offshore during the afternoon. Expect a well defined precipitation
shield driven by the upper trough and especially by isentropic lift
in the 290-295k layer to spread north into far southern NC on
Tuesday evening. The most widespread precipitation will fall late
Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday morning. Partial thickness
values and surface wet bulbs indicate this should be an all liquid
event for central NC with some freezing rain possible to the
northwest of the Triad. Total QPF for the event will range from
around to just less than a half inch near the VA border to about
three quarters of an inch near the SC border. Rain will shift east
on Wednesday with clearing skies and improving conditions during the
afternoon. Morning lows Wednesday will range in the mid and upper
30s with highs in the lower to mid-50s.

A northwest flow aloft will develop on Wednesday night and continue
into the weekend resulting a period of drier weather and below
normal temperatures. Previous model cycles suggested a southern
stream wave could phase and produce a precipitation event over the
weekend. Recent runs have the southern stream suppressed and out of
phase, not developing until off the Southeast coast. Accordingly we
have cut back on PoPs and improved sky condition a bit. Still lots
of uncertainty for now but have positioned a more optimistic
forecast for now. Highs this weekend will range around or just over
50 with lows around 30. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 705 PM Sunday...

High confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period. As a cold
front approaches from the northwest early Monday, moisture and lift
will create a brief period of MVFR (perhaps briefly IFR) rain
showers between 11 and 18Z, earliest at GSO/INT and latest at FAY.
Main change from previous forecast was to introduce gusty winds
overnight from the southwest up to 18 knots. Ahead of the front,
kept mention of some marginal low-level wind shear of 40 to 45 knots
from the southwest given strengthening low-level jet. The main cold
front will not move through until 19 to 21Z, where a second brief
period of MVFR/VFR showers are possible. After frontal passage, VFR
conditions and northwest winds will become gusty between 25 and 30
knots toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist Tuesday. A low pressure system
will bring sub-VFR showers on Wednesday. VFR will return Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...KREN/BSD



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