121
FXUS62 KRAH 251005
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
605 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through eastern North Carolina will settle to
our southeast this morning, as weak high pressure drifts over the
Carolinas, then pushes offshore this afternoon. A surface low and
trailing cold front will move west to east across North Carolina
this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in from the
northwest tonight through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday...

Much of today will be dry, but we`ll see a quick shot of light
showers across northern sections late today into the evening. The
prefrontal moisture plume and mid level shear axis and the resultant
bands of showers have pushed well to our E, but the cold front
itself is taking its time pushing through the CWA, with dewpoints
down in the 20s/30s in the Triad yet still aoa 50 along/E of Hwy 1.
This slow movement is not unreasonable given that the axis of the
incoming broad mid level trough is still to our W, and we`re lacking
a push of cold/dense air to push the front through. Nevertheless, we
should still see the front shift just SE out of the forecast area
near or soon after sunrise, with weak high pressure ridging drifting
swiftly across the area through this morning. The impetus for the
frontal push to our SE will be our next system, a surface low and
mid level DPVA area over MO, on pace to track ESE across NC through
this evening along an increasingly defined frontal zone. Once the
early-morning jet-induced high clouds now over the CWA shift to our
NE, we should see a brief window of fair skies and light winds
through this morning. But then the high-based cu and mid clouds now
noted over TN/KY to the NW will spread into our NW sections toward
mid afternoon, yielding a roughly inverted V thermal/moisture
profile much like what was seen on the 00z/25th SGF (IL) sounding.
Much of our area (perhaps all but the VA border counties) appear
likely to get into the warm sector ahead of the low, suggesting good
low level warming, although the near-ground moisture return
opportunity will be small, supporting the V profile with high cloud
bases and deep mixing. This should facilitate increasing gradient
winds and gusts, with several model profiles favoring a period of
possible 20-30 mph gusts late day into the evening. An area of light
showers or virga still appears likely with the surface low, forced
in part by the DPVA and upper divergence with the incoming jet
diving into the mean trough base. Gustiness could be enhanced in and
near these showers. Following the timing of the latest CAMs/HREF
mean, will stick with pops moving into our NW late this afternoon
before crossing northern sections through the evening then exiting
the NE soon after midnight, with pops peaking at low-end likely near
the VA border. Overall amounts will be greatly limited by the deep
dry subcloud layer, and our southern third is likely to see nothing
or a trace at most. With the deep mixing and period of SW flow and
slightly above normal thicknesses, expect highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, with some upper 70s possible in the SW where heating should
be greatest. Clouds will exit overnight, and the short period of
gusty NW and N winds just behind the front will diminish late,
allowing for decent nocturnal cooling. Lows should be in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Winds should stay up enough such that frost
shouldn`t be an issue, although a few of the typically cooler spots
could drop into the mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

Dry and breezy conditions are likely, but with some cloudiness
persisting within continued fast cyclonic mid level flow over the E
CONUS. The surface low and front should be pushing well to our E by
Wed morning, allowing a surface high to build from the Mid Miss
Valley into and atop the Carolinas through Wed night. We`re likely
to see another day of good deep mixing, with both high-based cu and
high clouds as a swath of mid level vorticity tracks over the region
along with a 100+ kt mid level jet streak. A few elevated returns
may occur over our N/NE and near the VA border, but overall, with
surface high pressure building in, it should culminate in patchy
virga at most. With thicknesses 10-15 m below normal and a period of
cloudiness, expect highs from the low 60s N to near 70 S. Any clouds
should push to our E Wed night, and with the core of the surface
high settling in, good late-night radiational cooling is expected.
Will have lows in the 30s to lower 40s, with frost possible over
much of the Piedmont and likely in the typically cooler spots. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...

The extended period will begin with high pressure centered over the
North Carolina Appalachian mountains and likely the coolest
temperatures over the next seven days. With northerly flow over the
region, Thursday should be the coolest day in the extended forecast.
Once the high shifts offshore Friday, southerly flow will yield
above normal temperatures through the rest of the forecast. By
Sunday morning, low pressure will be centered near Chicago with
another wave of low pressure developing along the cold front
extending southwest into the southern Plains. In advance of the cold
front, an isolated shower/storm can`t be ruled out Sunday and Sunday
night, but the best chance of showers and storms should be Monday as
the cold front moves across the state.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 605 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to hold across central NC through
tonight, although high clouds will persist over the northern
Piedmont through mid morning, and periods of clouds based above 7kft
AGL will occur later today. A cold front will settle to our SE early
this morning with weak high pressure building in through the
morning, but an approaching surface low and upper level disturbance
will cross NC this afternoon and evening, bringing VFR cigs. A
period of light showers falling from high cloud bases is expected at
northern terminals, INT/GSO from 20z to 01z, RDU 23z-03z, and at RWI
01z-04z, although vsbys are likely to remain VFR given dry air near
the surface. Surface winds will be generally light and variable
through this morning, before increasing W-to-E and becoming gusty
from the SW up to 20-25 kts. In and near showers, winds may gust
higher, to around 30 kts. Once the surface low passes by, winds will
shift to be from the NW, initially gusty then diminishing, in the
early evening at INT/GSO and mid to late evening at RDU/RWI/FAY,
with clearing skies.

Looking beyond 12z Wed, VFR conditions will dominate through Sat.
Winds will again be gusty Wed from the NW late morning through
afternoon, with isolated sprinkles possible. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

An Increased Fire Danger Statement will be in effect for the entire
forecast area today. While many areas saw some rainfall Mon
(including a stripe of a quarter to half inch through the central
Piedmont to the N Coastal Plain), much of this rain was light, with
SE sections seeing very little at all, thus fuels over much of the
area should remain somewhat dry today. While winds will be light
this morning into early afternoon, an approaching surface low will
track E across NC from mid afternoon through this evening, including
a warm front lifting N into the area this afternoon and a cold front
passage this evening. This will bring a period of gusty winds up to
20-30 mph from the SW from mid afternoon through early evening, then
a brief period of gusts from the NW and N will occur just behind the
cold front this evening. With minimum RH values expected to be 20-28
percent today and expected gusts, an IFD statement is warranted for
all of central NC. A statewide ban on open burning from the North
Carolina Forest Service remains in effect, and they have cancelled
all burning permits until further notice. Residents with questions
can contact their NC Forest Service county ranger or their county
fire marshal`s office.

While Wed will see temps that are a bit cooler yielding slightly
higher RHs in the afternoon, the winds will again be gusty in the
afternoon, and another Increased Fire Danger statement may be
needed. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
FIRE WEATHER...Hartfield