Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000 FXUS65 KREV 170941 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 141 AM PST Mon Feb 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of the week. A few weaker systems may provide light precipitation across the southern Sierra Friday evening into Saturday followed by a brush by system with light precipitation across northern Nevada on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... Seasonable weather continues for the next few days as high temperatures stay around season averages through mid-week. Overall, no real prospects for meaningful precipitation over the next few days which has been the story thus far in 2020. For today, north-northeast breezes will prevail with highs in the low to mid 50s across the Sierra and western Nevada valleys. Clouds will decrease through the day but clearing will be short lived as another band of clouds moves in overnight as a weak shortwave trough moves through the region. Light northeasterly flow continues on Tuesday with a slight increase in strength as a reinforcing dry, backdoor front moves through the region Wednesday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low 50s across western Nevada valleys with upper 40s for Sierra valleys. Fuentes .LONG TERM...Thursday onward... Dry and mild conditions on Thursday with a ridge overhead. The easterly gradient will be relaxing with winds aloft turning back to the southwest ahead of a trough dropping south in the eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, this trough is too far offshore to bring much precip to the region, but a few light showers are possible in the Sierra on Friday and Friday night. Have increased precipitation chances in the Sierra as ensemble probabilities are indicating chances for up to 0.10". As the trough swings inland Saturday, a weak area of deformation along the north side of the low could bring some rain and snow to Mono and Mineral Counties, but the best forcing remains south, so this doesn`t appear to be a major event. The system for February 23-24 is trending farther east and drier, much like we have seen for storms the past 6 or so weeks. While we could still see changes in the trajectory, ensemble clusters and overall height change tendencies are strongly hinting at the ridge rebuilding too quickly in the eastern Pacific to allow energy to drop south into CA/western NV. Will maintain chances for precipitation in the forecast as ensembles still hint at chances for light rain/snow, but have reduced liquid totals. The other item of note with this system is we`ll see increasing winds Sunday into Monday along with a cool down in temperatures by Monday. -Dawn && .AVIATION... Generally light winds today with less than 10 kts at area terminals. Some breezy east winds (up to 35 kts) along the Sierra crest could lead to some bumps over and just west of the Sierra. Northerly winds will be a bit stronger into the central Nevada Basin and Range this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts possible. High clouds will continue to filter over the region, but conditions will be VFR and ceilings should be high enough to limit any terrain obscuration. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno

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