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000
FXUS65 KREV 170941
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
141 AM PST Mon Feb 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of
the week. A few weaker systems may provide light precipitation
across the southern Sierra Friday evening into Saturday followed
by a brush by system with light precipitation across northern
Nevada on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Seasonable weather continues for the next few days as high
temperatures stay around season averages through mid-week. Overall,
no real prospects for meaningful precipitation over the next few
days which has been the story thus far in 2020.

For today, north-northeast breezes will prevail with highs in the
low to mid 50s across the Sierra and western Nevada valleys. Clouds
will decrease through the day but clearing will be short lived as
another band of clouds moves in overnight as a weak shortwave trough
moves through the region. Light northeasterly flow continues on
Tuesday with a slight increase in strength as a reinforcing dry,
backdoor front moves through the region Wednesday. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the low 50s across western Nevada valleys with
upper 40s for Sierra valleys. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Thursday onward...

Dry and mild conditions on Thursday with a ridge overhead. The
easterly gradient will be relaxing with winds aloft turning back to
the southwest ahead of a trough dropping south in the eastern
Pacific. Unfortunately, this trough is too far offshore to bring
much precip to the region, but a few light showers are possible in
the Sierra on Friday and Friday night. Have increased precipitation
chances in the Sierra as ensemble probabilities are indicating
chances for up to 0.10". As the trough swings inland Saturday, a
weak area of deformation along the north side of the low could bring
some rain and snow to Mono and Mineral Counties, but the best
forcing remains south, so this doesn`t appear to be a major event.

The system for February 23-24 is trending farther east and drier,
much like we have seen for storms the past 6 or so weeks. While we
could still see changes in the trajectory, ensemble clusters and
overall height change tendencies are strongly hinting at the ridge
rebuilding too quickly in the eastern Pacific to allow energy to
drop south into CA/western NV. Will maintain chances for
precipitation in the forecast as ensembles still hint at chances for
light rain/snow, but have reduced liquid totals. The other item of
note with this system is we`ll see increasing winds Sunday into
Monday along with a cool down in temperatures by Monday. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally light winds today with less than 10 kts at area terminals.
Some breezy east winds (up to 35 kts) along the Sierra crest could
lead to some bumps over and just west of the Sierra. Northerly winds
will be a bit stronger into the central Nevada Basin and Range this
afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts possible.

High clouds will continue to filter over the region, but conditions
will be VFR and ceilings should be high enough to limit any terrain
obscuration. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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