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462
FXUS65 KREV 030915
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
215 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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* Critical fire weather conditions, gusty winds, along with
  shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today.

* Temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages for Independence
  Day, with diminishing precipitation chances in the forecast.

* A gradual warming trend begins Saturday and continues through
  early next week.
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.DISCUSSION...

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Forecast guidance shows a low pressure trough over the Pacific
moving towards the western coast of the CONUS today. This pattern
aloft will allow for area winds to increase out of the west to
southwest this afternoon. Gusts up to around 35 mph are in the
forecast with wind prone areas having the potential of seeing gusts
up to around 45 mph. Due to these winds, a Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect for this afternoon and evening for area lakes
including Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake. These winds will also
contribute to the critical fire weather conditions within the area,
so please see the Fire Weather section for more details on this.

As for precipitation chances today, areas closer to the OR border as
well as Pershing, Churchill, and Mineral Counties see around a 20-
30% chance of showers and thunderstorms today. According to the
latest runs of the CAMs, the window for precipitation looks to open
between 1-2 PM PT and close Friday morning as some models show
chances of showers continuing overnight. While severe weather is
not anticipated with thunderstorms today, gusty outflow winds and
brief downpours are possible from the storms if they occur. QPF
values look to be minimal at this time with these precipitation
chances. Forecast CAPE values look to be higher in areas along the
OR border, so there might be a slightly better chance for some
lightning in those area.

As for the Independence Day holiday, mostly dry conditions are
expected with the exception of some isolated shower and thunderstorm
chances (15-25%) in northern Washoe County during the afternoon
hours as the better precipitation chances look to stay north of
the OR border. Milder temperatures are forecast for the holiday
with daytime high temperatures generally between 80 and 90 degrees
for the valley portions of the CWA while the Sierra Mountain
communities see highs in the 60s and 70s. The sky forecast for
those attending fireworks displays later in the day looks to be
favorable at this time with most of the CWA seeing clear skies.
The exception to this forecast looks to be closer to OR border
(northern Washoe and northern Lassen Counties) where the
precipitation chances exist as the showers have to come from
somewhere. Winds expect to be breezy again out of the west with
afternoon winds gusts up to between 20-30 mph in the forecast. The
overnight low temperatures for the valley areas look to be
generally between 45 and 55 degrees with Sierra Communities
dipping down into the middle 30s to lower 40s range.

Going through the holiday weekend and into next week, temperatures
will rebound with a warming trend as eastern valley portions of
the CWA see highs in the upper 90s return by Monday and then
hit the triple digits in some areas like those around Lovelock
and Fallon again by Wednesday. Dry conditions are anticipated as
well as high pressure builds in the southwestern CONUS though some
diurnal showers cannot be completely ruled out at this time. -078
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.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions are anticipated for a good portion of the CWA today
with dry weather expected. The exception looks to be in areas along
the OR border and Pershing/Churchill/Mineral Counties (KLOL-KHTH) as
there are 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms between 03/21Z
through 04/09Z. Primary impacts from thunderstorms include possible
gusty/erratic winds and occasional lightning. Otherwise, westerly to
southwesterly afternoon winds gusting up to around 25 kts are
expected today. -078
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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For today, critical fire weather conditions are expected in the
Sierra Front as well as the inner-basin ranges with minimum relative
humidity values down to 10-15% and westerly to southwesterly winds
gusting up to around 35 mph this afternoon and evening. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for these areas today beginning at noon
and lasting through midnight tonight. There is also potential for
dry thunderstorms (20-30% chance) causing lightning strikes in the
afternoon and evening for areas along the OR border (northern Washoe
County). Portions of Churchill, Pershing, and Mineral Counties see a
20-30% chance for isolated thunderstorms during this time today as
well.

For Independence Day, elevated fire weather conditions are possible
within the region due to breezy westerly winds and low minimum
relative humidity values in the forecast during the afternoon
hours. -078
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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NV...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight NVZ420-
     421-423-429-458.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ002-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight CAZ278.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ072-073.
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&&

$$