Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 090724 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 324 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface high will gradually build across the region today into Monday, limiting the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front stalls across the southern Ohio Valley Tuesday, increasing the chances for convection through the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Sunday... A weak surface trough will be draped over the mountains today with drier air to the west (PWATS below an inch) and abundant moisture east (PWATS around 1.50 inches). Storms should start along the Blue Ridge by the middle of the afternoon then drift southeast into the piedmont by this evening. Capping inversion should limit the coverage of strong to severe storms to just a few, but torrential downpours are possible towards the piedmont late this afternoon and evening. Just like the last couple of days, patchy dense fog and/or low stratus deck will hang around into mid morning. With more sun than showers, temperatures will warm into the 80s across the mountains to low 90s east. Even though less rain is expected today, we should see a return of fog/stratus clouds by Monday`s morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure slowly weakens Monday as a new upper level trough from the Great Lakes and a warm front to our south enter the region. This warm front will be one of many focal points for increased shower and storm coverage during the period. Coverage looks to be scattered and diurnally driven similar to what has happened over the last few days. The exception to this would be an approaching cold front that looks to stall close to the region starting Tuesday and heading into the midweek period. This will act as a catalyst for several waves of energy to roll along increasing the shower and storm chances on both of those days especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With high pressure weakening and a strengthening Bermuda High offshore high temperatures will continue to remain at or above average through the period. This means highs in the low to mid 90s east of the Blue Ridge and mid to upper 80s out over the mountains. No real relief at night either with lows continuing to hold steady in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Ensemble guidance is keen to develop an upper ridge in the eastern US that gets undercut by a steady stream of short wave energy through the latter portion of next week, while at the surface a Bermuda high takes up a position off the coast. This will be an increasingly active pattern for us as a diffuse frontal boundary slowly moves into the region from the west. The net result will be daily rounds of convection and possibly more organized MCS events. Precipitable water values will also be surging to +1 standard deviation above normal so the potential for heavy rainfall and hydro issues will be increasing as well. Temperatures will be at to slightly above late summer seasonal norms through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Sunday... There has been a slow demise of showers overnight and remain in the vicinity of the Roanoke and Lynchburg Airports. These showers should wane in the next few hours. Just like the last couple of mornings, fog and/or low stratus deck will hover over the area this morning. Most models have these weather obscurations gone by 14Z/10A, but could linger over the piedmont until noon. Limited convection is expected today and will primarily be east of the Blue Ridge. Some storms toward KLYH and KDAN could produce torrential downpours temporarily reduce visibilities. Since less coverage of convection is expected today, the areal coverage of fog/stratus may also be limited overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Extended Aviation Discussion... Pattern should remain typical of summer Monday with scattered afternoon/evening storms. Overall VFR outside storms and late night valley fog. Low pressure will bring a better threat of storms and MVFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. The usual diurnal pattern will see storms linger until around midnight, mainly east of the foothills. Overnight fog is likely and based on this mornings performance could be dense on some areas. Already starting to reach that time of year where the longer nights are allowing a little more fog development. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...ET LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...RCS

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