Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 222324
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
524 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chances) will
  occur this afternoon across the Branson to West Plains to
  Alton areas.

- Slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, but still remaining above
  normal. Well above normal temperatures (as much as 25 degrees
  above normal) Sunday through Tuesday.

- There is an elevated fire risk across portions of the area
  each afternoon from this afternoon through the weekend into
  early next week.

- Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday (30-80%
  chances).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

A weak front continues to push south through southern Missouri
early this afternoon. The front has pushed through much of the
area this morning, but some weak instability has developed
across far southern Missouri, Branson to West Plains to Alton
areas this afternoon. A few scattered showers are starting to
develop across far southern Missouri. Instability is weak across
the area but could be just enough for a isolated rumble of
thunder or two across far southern Missouri this afternoon. No
severe weather is expected across southern Missouri. Coverage
with the showers and storms will not be widespread and most
locations should remain dry. This activity should move south of
the area by late this afternoon.

Temperatures will not cool behind the front as highs in the
middle 60s to around 70 will still occur this afternoon. North to
northwest winds will also increase this afternoon behind the
front. A drier air mass will start to move south into the area
this afternoon across portions of southeastern Kansas and
west central Missouri this afternoon where an isolated elevated
fire risk will develop.

A slightly cooler air mass will move into the area on Friday and
Saturday but will still remain above normal for this time of
year as highs in the middle 50s to the lower 60s occur. A drier
air mass will be in place as afternoon humidity values drop
into the 30 percents each afternoon. Winds gusts up to around 25
mph will occur on Friday. The dry conditions and gusty winds
will lead to elevated fire conditions across the area on Friday.
The dry air mass will remain in place on Saturday but winds
will be weaker limited the fire weather risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Southerly winds will then return on Sunday and a warmer air mass
will start to advect into the region. 850mb temperatures will
warm to around 10C on Sunday then will continue to warm to the
10-15C range on Monday then the 15-20C range on Tuesday. Gusty
southerly winds will usher in these warmer conditions. This
warmer air mass will support highs Sunday warming into the
lower to possibly middle 70s then into the middle to upper 70s
with some low 80 readings possible Monday and especially
Tuesday.

A drier air mass will remain over the area on Sunday into
Monday as afternoon humidity values generally drop into the 30
to 40 percent range. Moisture will start to increase from the
south, but afternoon humidity values in the 30 percents will
once again be possible across at least the northern portions of
the area on Tuesday. An elevated Fire Danger risk will occur
Sunday through Tuesday as the warm and dry air mass combine with
gusty southerly winds.

The ensemble models then show an upper level shortwave trough
digging across the west Coast early next week then across the
central U.S. The ensemble model cluster analysis continues to
show a spread within the members on the exact track, timing,
and structure of the system. There is also difference in the
models from time to time. The Cluster analysis data shows
a lot of uncertainties on the timing and depth of the trough.
There will be shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
as the trough come from late Tuesday into Wednesday but again
there is still questions on the timing and track of the system.
There is some potential for strong to severe storms occurring with
this system across the central and southern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

VFR through the period with northerly winds decreasing tonight.
Though, northerly winds become breezy once again for Friday with
gusts between 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024


Record High Temperatures:

February 25:
Springfield (KSGF): 74/1981
Joplin (KJLN):      75/1981

February 26:
Springfield (KSGF): 77/1996
Joplin (KJLN):      81/1996
Vichy/Rolla (KVIH): 75/1996
West Plains (KUNO): 76/1961

February 27:
Springfield (KSGF): 77/1976
Joplin (KJLN):      76/1976
Vichy/Rolla (KVIH): 76/1976
West Plains (KUNO): 77/1976


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 27:
Springfield (KSGF): 55/1981

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Soria
CLIMATE...Burchfield


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