000
FXUS63 KSGF 032308
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Widely scattered showers have developed this afternoon with most
activity confined to areas near and southeast of a Fort Leonard
Wood to Branson line. There is just enough instability to support
a few lightning strikes for the next few hours. Otherwise,
activity will begin to wane this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Meanwhile, a cyclonic northwesterly flow will remain over the
region into Tuesday with surface high pressure slowly building
southeast across the Corn Belt and into the Mid Mississippi
Valley. After the showers dissipate this evening, we are looking
at dry conditions through Tuesday. Some patchy fog will be
possible late tonight as winds become light.

We saw no reason to stray from NBM temperatures for lows tonight
and highs on Tuesday. Most areas will dip into the middle to upper
50s tonight with highs on Tuesday in the middle 70s to around 80
degrees. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees below normal for
early August.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

The cyclonic northwesterly flow will begin to lose its grip
Tuesday night and Wednesday with an upper level ridge then
strengthening across the central and southern Plains late this
week. The setup looks good for an MCS sliding southeast from
western Kansas into Oklahoma late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. At this time, we think this activity should stay west of
the area closer to the better low-level theta-e gradient.

Better chances for convection will then occur starting Wednesday
night and Thursday morning as a low-level jet veers into the
region. Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will then
persist into the weekend as models indicate the upper level flow
flattening with multiple short wave troughs riding east through
the region.

Temperatures will be on the upswing throughout the week with
rising heights and warming 850 mb temperatures. Confidence is
fairly high that we will see a return to highs in the lower 90s
by late this weekend and early next week. This is backed by NBM
probabilities and CIPS analog guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected at the sites through most of the
evening and overnight hours. Ceilings may lower close to MVFR by
morning however confidence is low. Could also be some brief fog at
SGF near sunrise. Winds will remains light out of the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield