501
FXUS63 KSGF 122334
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder increasing in
  coverage from south to north this afternoon into tonight.
  Some breaks in showers during the day Friday, but overall
  rainy prevailing conditions.

- On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
  weekend.

- Heavy rain may accompany isolated, strong cells, which may
  lead to localized flooding if moving over the same location.

- Heat index values warming into the mid 90s to lower 100s by
  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

230 PM radar shows a developing rain shield along the
Missouri/Arkansas border, with isolated cells popping ahead of
the main precip shield. These cells ahead of the main precip
shield are beefier and bringing heavier rain rates, with a
recent cell that developed over Joplin producing nearly a
quarter of an inch of rain in around 20 minutes. This is pretty
representative of the general pattern expected for the rest of
the work week-- a more continuous stratiform precip shield
bringing light rain, with embedded convective cells bringing
pockets of heavy rain.

While there is modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg) in a mostly
uncapped environment through tomorrow evening, with a tall and
skinny CAPE profile, there is a deep warm cloud layer, which
will help reduce the chance of frequent lightning with the
stronger convective cells this afternoon and tomorrow.

The deep warm cloud layer will help increase precipitation
efficiency in convective cells with weak cloud-layer flow,
which increases risk of localized minor flash flooding with
soils still saturated from all of the recent rainfall. While
widespread rain totals >1" are not expected due to the isolated
nature of the more efficient cells, these cells will produce
most of their rain within a short time frame and isolated
pockets of totals up to 1.5" may occur. Additionally, since the
nature of the rainfall will be more on- and-off popcorn storms
on Friday, if any cells happen to form and move over the same
areas, this is where the flash flooding risk would exist.

The upper-level trough that sits over the Plains this afternoon
will largely remain in place through Friday evening, sitting
and spinning just upstream. This will serve as the forcing for
the showers and storms associated with this MCS over the next
few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The wave moves east Friday night into Saturday, with PoPs
decreasing west to east into Saturday morning. 20-40% PoPs
linger through Saturday afternoon in areas along and south of
I-44. Predictability from Sunday into next week is much lower,
with long-range and AI models suggesting a ridge building aloft
across the Plains. However, these models also indicate embedded
mid- and low-level shortwaves developing and moving across the
CONUS through early next week. This is enough of a signal of
activity to keep PoPs above zero low through the better part of
the next week, but confidence in shortwaves impacting the
Ozarks is low, which keeps consistent but low PoPs (10-30%).

Highs look to push into the upper 80s to low 90s underneath the
ridge mid-week, with heat indices in the 90s all week with many
places nearing a feels-like temperature of 100 on Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday. We continue to monitor the potential
for heat-related impacts next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An area of showers continues to move north through the area.
Overall there will be a little break in the rain early this
evening, though some sprinkles/light rain will remain possible
at times this evening. Winds will be out of the south to
southeast this evening between 6 and 10kt.

Additional showers and a few embedded isolated rumbles of
thunder will move back into the area later this evening into
Friday morning. Some scattered showers and some isolated
thunderstorms will then be possible at times later Friday
afternoon. Visibilities will lower with in this activity.
Ceilings will also lower tonight into Friday with MVFR to IFR
ceilings possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Wise