


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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501 FXUS63 KSGF 122334 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder increasing in coverage from south to north this afternoon into tonight. Some breaks in showers during the day Friday, but overall rainy prevailing conditions. - On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Heavy rain may accompany isolated, strong cells, which may lead to localized flooding if moving over the same location. - Heat index values warming into the mid 90s to lower 100s by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 230 PM radar shows a developing rain shield along the Missouri/Arkansas border, with isolated cells popping ahead of the main precip shield. These cells ahead of the main precip shield are beefier and bringing heavier rain rates, with a recent cell that developed over Joplin producing nearly a quarter of an inch of rain in around 20 minutes. This is pretty representative of the general pattern expected for the rest of the work week-- a more continuous stratiform precip shield bringing light rain, with embedded convective cells bringing pockets of heavy rain. While there is modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg) in a mostly uncapped environment through tomorrow evening, with a tall and skinny CAPE profile, there is a deep warm cloud layer, which will help reduce the chance of frequent lightning with the stronger convective cells this afternoon and tomorrow. The deep warm cloud layer will help increase precipitation efficiency in convective cells with weak cloud-layer flow, which increases risk of localized minor flash flooding with soils still saturated from all of the recent rainfall. While widespread rain totals >1" are not expected due to the isolated nature of the more efficient cells, these cells will produce most of their rain within a short time frame and isolated pockets of totals up to 1.5" may occur. Additionally, since the nature of the rainfall will be more on- and-off popcorn storms on Friday, if any cells happen to form and move over the same areas, this is where the flash flooding risk would exist. The upper-level trough that sits over the Plains this afternoon will largely remain in place through Friday evening, sitting and spinning just upstream. This will serve as the forcing for the showers and storms associated with this MCS over the next few days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The wave moves east Friday night into Saturday, with PoPs decreasing west to east into Saturday morning. 20-40% PoPs linger through Saturday afternoon in areas along and south of I-44. Predictability from Sunday into next week is much lower, with long-range and AI models suggesting a ridge building aloft across the Plains. However, these models also indicate embedded mid- and low-level shortwaves developing and moving across the CONUS through early next week. This is enough of a signal of activity to keep PoPs above zero low through the better part of the next week, but confidence in shortwaves impacting the Ozarks is low, which keeps consistent but low PoPs (10-30%). Highs look to push into the upper 80s to low 90s underneath the ridge mid-week, with heat indices in the 90s all week with many places nearing a feels-like temperature of 100 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We continue to monitor the potential for heat-related impacts next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An area of showers continues to move north through the area. Overall there will be a little break in the rain early this evening, though some sprinkles/light rain will remain possible at times this evening. Winds will be out of the south to southeast this evening between 6 and 10kt. Additional showers and a few embedded isolated rumbles of thunder will move back into the area later this evening into Friday morning. Some scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will then be possible at times later Friday afternoon. Visibilities will lower with in this activity. Ceilings will also lower tonight into Friday with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Wise