242
FXUS63 KSGF 052045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall continues through this evening before
  exiting from west to east tonight. Low risk for localized
  flooding. No severe weather expected.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC
  highlights an Enhanced Risk (3/5) for this area. Primary
  hazard is damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Additional
  hazards include a few short- lived tornadoes and quarter sized
  hail.

- Additional chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on
  Wednesday.

- Forecast rainfall amounts through Thursday morning are between
  1 to 3 inches, which supports a low localized flooding
  threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Through Tonight: A shortwave trough is moving through the area
this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been slow
to spread across the area this afternoon, though recent trends
have depicted increased coverage. This was the result of some
mid level dry air that was in place this morning. While rainfall
rates have been around 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour, the residence
time over any given area has been short-lived. This has limited
any excessive rainfall and thus no flooding. There remains a low
risk for localized heavier amounts and flooding through this
evening. HREF Probability Matched Mean (PPM) depicts the highest
rainfall amounts along the MO/AR border through tonight, with
localized corridors approaching 1 to 1.5 inches. Expect this
activity to continue through the evening, before sliding east of
the area tonight. Most of the area should be completely dry
after midnight.

For tonight, overnight lows drop to around 60, with overcast
skies lingering behind the precipitation. Winds become rather
light with the presence of low-level moisture as dewpoint
depressions become favorable for areas of patchy dense fog
across southeast KS into southwest and west central MO. The
extent of the dense fog will generally be limited to areas west
of Highway 65 through Monday morning.

Monday: Expects clouds and areas of dense fog to dissipate
through Monday morning. A rather dry and quiet Monday afternoon
is expected ahead of the next approaching system. Highs on
Monday reach into the upper 70s to near 80 with southerly flow
advecting in moisture to the area. Expect a mix of sun and
clouds through Monday afternoon, though a stout cap should
inhibit much of any convection chances within the warm sector of
a developing low pressure system. This is related to the
approach of negatively tilted trough across the Plains, that
will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across the
Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Recent trends
support an extension of the SPC Enhanced Risk (3/5) into
portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The Slight
Risk (2/5) has been pulled further east to account for this
upgrade.

An assessment of hi-res guidance depicts the approach of strong
to severe thunderstorms across the west late Monday evening
(around 9 PM or after), with a gradual weakening trend through
the overnight hours as it translates eastward. Initial
development across central Kansas will be discrete in nature,
before growing upscale into a line of thunderstorms as it
spreads into the area. The environment will be characterized by
a strong instability (1500-2500+ J/kg) and 35 to 40 knots of
deep layer shear. Increasing warm air advection supports
dewpoints climbing into the middle 60s. The primary hazard will
be significant damaging wind gusts, approaching 70-80 mph within
bowing segments. This is highlighted in the SPC wind hazard
probabilities, denoting a hatched corridor of 30% extending into
the area. Generally along and west of line from Osceola to
Stockton to Monett. This is where the threat is highest for
significant wind gusts up to 80 mph, especially if the line is
able to establish a strong cold pool. Additional hazards
include a few tornadoes and severe hail. The tornado threat
remains more favorable to the west, though favorable low-level
kinematics may support a few tornadoes. An analysis of
environment, depicts 0-1km CAPE around 50-100 J/kg in the
vicinity of 0-1km low-level shear around 30 knots. Forecasting
soundings suggest 0-3km shear around 30 to 40 knots to the
east/northeast, thus mesovortex development would be favorable
within any segments bowing in this direction. Significant
Tornado Parameter (STP) values around 1 to 3 edge into portions
of southeast KS and southwest MO. The mesoscale environment will
be best analyzed in the near term, with additional hi-res
guidance and RAOBs as well. The threat is low for localized
heavy rainfall amounts and flooding given the progressive nature
of this line of thunderstorms. As the line approaches the
Highway 65 corridor, expect a gradual weakening trend to
transpire as the environment becomes less favorable. However,
the damaging wind gust threat still lingers into Tuesday morning
along and east of Highway 65. Continue to monitor the forecast
for updates over the next 24 hours as there is still remaining
uncertainties on the exact timing and mesoscale features.

Tuesday: The line of thunderstorms exits across the east through
Tuesday morning. The extent of restrengthening remains
uncertain, though recent trends suggest the line may completely
clear the area through mid morning. This would limit any
additional severe threat on Tuesday afternoon.

By the afternoon, the area will be dry with clearing skies and
highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier weather
persists through Tuesday ahead of the next approaching system on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Wednesday-Thursday: Additional upper- level jet support and an
embedded shortwave energy build into the region on Wednesday. A
surface low develops to the west and the associated frontal
passage will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. The
timing and finer details still remain uncertain for this system,
though the general trend suggests initiation over the area
before progressing eastward. The environment will be supportive
of strong to severe thunderstorms, with ample instability and
shear depicted among the ensembles. Storm mode and potential
hazards will better analyzed in subsequent forecast updates
early this week. Nonetheless, a cold front clears the area
behind this system with a cooler and drier airmass filtering
into the region late week. Highs on Thursday reach into the
middle 70s.

Friday-Saturday: Ensemble guidance solutions begin to diverge
into next weekend, though there has been a consistent signal for
cooler and drier weather. Highs next weekend are forecast to be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additionally, a stretch of drier
weather should help area lakes and rivers that continue to run
high. The CPC highlights a period through mid-May of below
normal temperatures and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue to overspread the TAF sites through this afternoon.
Expect MVFR to IFR flight conditions, with some instances of
LIFR. Ceilings vary between 500 to 1500 feet, with visibilities
reduced to 2 to 4 miles within precipitation. Rain will slowly
exit from west to east through the evening into tonight, with
IFR flight conditions persisting overnight into Monday morning.
Flight conditions begin to improve late in the TAF period. Winds
light at 5 to 10 knots out of the east/northeast through
tonight, turning out of the south/southeast into Monday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant
rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of
rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms forecast through mid-week, localized
flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be
possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with
localized higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and
these will be monitored through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
HYDROLOGY...Perez