Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 232341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Water vapor imagery showing Rex block pattern in place along 140
West longitude with somewhat disorganized upper trough downstream
over the northern Rockies and a weak wave over east Texas. A narrow
surface ridge was objectively analyzed from Lake Michigan southwest
across eastern Kansas into west Texas with widespread stratus
remaining to its southeast at this hour.

Main focus tonight into Monday is low-level moisture trends. Models
keep a strong inversion in place aloft with southeast winds
increasing under it for a more mixed environment than this morning
with boundary layer moisture increasing rather evenly. Will have
stratus steadily increasing into the late morning but not convinced
an overcast deck will form. With the stronger winds, will keep any
fog mention out. Expect lows to be several degrees warmer
tonight and kept highs near 80 for the most part though
stratus trends will play a significant role in afternoon temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For Monday night into Tuesday evening, the focus is on the cold
front associated with the northern tier wave. Timing with the front
still remains less than certain with this unorganized wave, but
the most likely timing looks to be late Monday night into late
Tuesday afternoon. Best chances for precip should come late Monday
night into midday Tuesday as the deeper forcing moves through, and
better chances for northern areas in this regard. Modest lapse rates
and meager wind fields keep severe weather potential low in this
anafront setup.

Rex block lingers through the later portions of the week with mean,
low-amplitude troughing over the central CONUS. Surface ridge behind
the cold front keeps temps cool through Thursday with another front
passage looking to be late Thursday into Thursday night as
there is decent agreement with a shortwave passing through the
trough axis. Available moisture should remain limited for small
precip chances. Somewhat better potential may come Friday and Friday
night as flow becomes more zonal and isentropic upglide results. A
faster zonal to southwest flow pattern develops over the weekend
with varying solutions of a frontal boundary in the central Plains.
Will keep precip chances low at this point with some modification in


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

An area of MVFR stratus is expected move into the area early
Monday morning. The best potential for low stratus looks to remain
across the Topeka terminals. In addition, shallow, patchy ground
fog is possible after 09Z. MVFR stratus is progged to scatter out
near 15Z with VFR conditions thereafter.




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