981
FXUS63 KTOP 160523
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1223 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, breezy and dry through Saturday.

- Rain/storm chances return Sunday and into early next week.

- Increasing chances for severe storms Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon with all hazards possible with storms that develop. See
discussion for further details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a stout upper low
across the northern Plains with southwest flow extending across much
of the central CONUS. Weak zonal flow and troughing exists across
the western US with a streak of upper-level moisture pushing in from
Baja California within a sub-tropical jet streak. Across
northeastern Kansas, a tight pressure gradient following a cold
front last night remains laid out across the area with gusty
westerly winds keeping conditions this afternoon much less muggy and
slightly cooler than yesterday. Expect temperatures to top out in the
low 80s this afternoon with winds decreasing around sunset this
evening. Overnight tonight, a mid-level perturbation associated with
the aforementioned upper low advects over Kansas and should help to
push a secondary cold front/surface low through the area. This could
bring some gusty winds to east-central Kansas early Friday morning
with winds shifting towards the northwest as the frontal boundary
slides through the area by mid Friday morning. Similar conditions
will persist for the afternoon Friday as highs again top out in the
low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

The forecast area should remain dry through Saturday afternoon
before moisture advection begins to return to the area Saturday
evening and into Sunday. A weak mid-level wave will begin to work
its way across the southern Plains Saturday afternoon that could
help to bring some showers and a few rumbles of thunder to southeast
portions of the CWA, but best chances for any precipitation remains
south of the area until Sunday.

By Sunday morning, southwest flow begins to increase aloft as a
deepening trough axis advects in from the central Rockies. Lee
cyclogenesis will further deepen a surface low in eastern Colorado
further helping to push moisture north across Kansas. By Sunday
afternoon, deterministic guidance is hinting at a warm front lifting
north into central Kansas with a very ripe warm sector to its south.
A dry line setting up somewhere across south-central Kansas also
seems likely as the surface low begins to eject into western Kansas.
With MLCIN decreasing into the afternoon, MLCAPE ranging from 2000-
3000 J/kg, 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear and looping hodographs should
set up across the warm sector pointing to a great set up for
supercells and severe weather in the late afternoon and evening
Sunday. Any storms that can develop along the dry line to our west
or on the warm front will be capable of all hazards including large
hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. All that said, there is still a
fair amount of variability between guidance this far out...mainly
with where surface features set up. Currently, the GFS and SREF
keeps the warm front the furthest north with the NAM and EURO
keeping the frontal boundaries south of I-70. Some guidance even
tries to bring the dry line as far east as Salina indicating the
potential for dry line storms in the late afternoon. As previously
mentioned, confidence is low in where severe weather will occur, but
at this point, the parameters needed for severe storms should be in
place across the region.

Monday will see another chance for severe weather across the area as
the main trough axis begins to slide east across the area. Current
thinking is that how things play out Sunday will largely impact how
the severe threat on Monday plays out. If storms from Sunday evening
linger into Monday morning and insulate the area for much of the
day, it may be hard for us to regenerate much instability needed for
severe storms. There are also chances that a frontal boundary
associated with the main upper low shifts across the area Monday in
the morning, limiting chances for storms in the afternoon. Will need
to keep an eye on trends in the coming days to see how things
continue to set up. Storm chances persist into the mid week next
week as the upper low hangs across the central Plains. That said,
following the frontal boundary Monday, most surface moisture needed
for severe weather will be shunted east of the area so severe
chances at this point in time remain low. With lots of cloud cover
and rain chances, expect temperatures Tuesday into Thursday to be
cooler, topping out in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

With a shallow inversion setting up once again overnight through
sunrise, the potential for LLWS conditions appear high enough to
mention for a few hours overnight until the 850mb trough shifts
east of the terminals. Should notice an uptick in wind speeds
through FL015 as a result for any early flights this morning
generally from the WSW. Winds increase at the surface as mixing
quickly takes place and the winds veer to the WNW with gusts
increasing midday into the afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake