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FXUS63 KTOP 071953
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
153 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures highlight much of the forecast period,
  particularly Monday afternoon with record highs expected.

- Rain chances are trending less likely Tuesday/Wednesday with
  scattered low rain chances Thursday-Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Upper ridging builds eastward this weekend, advecting warmer low
level temps into the region Sunday into Monday. Sfc troughing in
southeast Colorado Monday will maximize h85 temps above 13C as
southerly winds increase from 10 to 15 mph. NBM spread continues to
minimize for high temps, centering in the low-mid 70s on Monday (see
CLIMATE section below). There is not a strong signal for gusty winds
Sunday and Monday afternoons, with perhaps Monday afternoon seeing
gusts to around 20 mph in north central Kansas. Elevated fire
weather concerns however are present on Monday afternoon as min RH
values fall from 25-30 percent.

In the long term, southern stream upper low progged to impact the
southern conus Tuesday-Wednesday continues to trend further south,
lowering confidence in rain chances for northeast Kansas during that
period. Any precip that does occur would be all rain, given that
temps are in the 40s/50s. Upper flow pattern becomes more zonal
Thursday-Saturday, allowing several perturbations to cross the
central plains. Ensemble solutions exhibit high variability in QPF
given that the main shortwave trough axis weakens by the weekend.
Low chance pops seem reasonable at this time. A modified cold front
arrives on Thursday, signaling a return to highs near 50
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR at terminals as winds above 10 kts veer from the southeast
to the south and south southwest through 23Z. Sfc winds subside
this evening while a 35 to 40 kt LLJ develops from 15-2kft.
While LLWS remain on the marginal side, opted to leave it in as
short term models vary each run on duration and strength of the
stronger winds aloft (through around 09Z). A weak fropa will
veer winds to the northwest below 10 kts towards 18Z Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 421 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Updated at 151 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 9

            Forecast High       Record (Year)
Topeka          73                72 (1932)
Concordia       72                70 (1976, 1996)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Prieto