Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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378
FXUS63 KTOP 101111
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
511 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures expected this week with highs
  in the 60s.

- Chance (30%) for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

A closed upper low is progressing east across Iowa this morning with
flow becoming zonal across the Central Plains. Mostly sunny skies
and a downslope component of the low-level winds will aid in warming
temperatures into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. A weak surface
boundary moves through the area on Monday with winds switching to
the north-northeast. CAA is weak and 850mb temperatures of 8-10
degrees C along with sunny skies will translate to highs reaching
into the 60s once again.

A stronger wave ejects across the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday with
deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement in
the characteristics of this wave. The GEFS suite has come into
alignment with the ENS in a more amplified/elongated trough across
the center of the CONUS with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing ahead of an advancing cold front Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Differences in the coverage and timing of precipitation
is noted in guidance, although the overall trend has been a slower
progression of the wave and precipitation may linger into the
afternoon on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light
with only around a 20% chance for 0.25" of rain across the area.

Mid-level ridging builds overhead on Thursday before flow becomes
southwesterly this weekend ahead of a longwave trough deepening over
the western CONUS. Dry conditions are favored through at least early
Saturday before a cold front moves through late Saturday, bringing a
low chance of rain. Variability in temperatures over the next seven
days is quite low with highs holding steady in the 60s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions expected. A diurnal cumulus deck around 2500ft
develops this afternoon with a band of MVFR cigs dropping south
out of Nebraska. Uncertainty remains in how far south this cloud
deck will progress; KMHK could be impacted between 22-01z.
Winds from the west around 10kts through the day weaken this
evening. Fog development is possible after 06z Monday, but
confidence is too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan