Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 091938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
238 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridging over
Saskatchewan with low pressure systems west, east and south of the
upper high. At the surface, high pressure was seen building south
through the plains with a cold front pushing through east TX and

An area of mid level ow pressure is progged to remain to the west of
the forecast area through Wednesday thanks to the upper ridge over
central Canada. This pattern also keeps the surface ridge over the
central plains for as long as lower heights remain over the inter-
mountain west. This sets up a cool and cloudy period with occasional
pieces of vorticity moving overhead. The better dynamics for
vertical motion look to affect the region Tuesday and Tue night as a
better defined shortwave propagates east over the state. However
there isn`t much in the way of moisture advection ahead of this wave
and model QPF progs vary on whether showers develop over the area.
So POPs remain in the chance category for this period. There may
also be some light rain tonight and into Monday as models develop
some modest mid level frontogenesis across central KS. Many of the
solutions keep the precip just south and west of the forecast area
where the better forcing is expected to set up. So chances are only
slight for now. Clouds have been stubborn today and if it looked like
we would clear out, I`d be concerned for some fog development for
areas that had rain last night. However models show mid level clouds
stream in from the west tonight even as the lower clouds break up.
This is expected to preclude fog formation. But if there are enough
breaks in the clouds, there could be some patchy fog by Monday
morning. Pesky north winds and weak cold air advection along with
limited insolation the next several days is expected to keep temps
below normal. Have highs in the upper 50s to around 60 through
Wednesday with lows in the lower and middle 40s.

The pattern finally breaks down by the end of the work week with
northwest flow redeveloping aloft. This should allow troughing in
the lee of the Rockies and a return to southerly winds across the
area with temps warming into the 70s heading into the weekend. The
GFS and ECMWF continue to show some potential for precip within a
warm air advection pattern. Usually this plays out as nocturnal
convection. It is hard to have much confidence in the POP forecast
for Friday and the weekend since there insn`t a synoptic feature to
focus precip chances like a shortwave or frontal boundary. Because
of this have stayed with the national blend which spread chances for
precip out through the whole three days. If it does end up being
more of a nocturnal precip pattern, we will probably see more precip
during the overnight while the daytime is mainly dry, but the medium
range solutions lack the resolution if show this very well. In any
case, the weekend is probably not going to be a washout.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Models show cloud cover hanging in for much of the forecast
period. But CIGS are forecast to gradually improve through the
afternoon as surface ridging build south with some modest dry air
advection. VFR conditions are forecast to develop by this evening
and remain VFR into Monday.




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