Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 282337
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

As of 20Z Sunday afternoon, a blustery but mild afternoon was ongoing
for most. Temperatures have warmed into the 50s for areas along and
south of I-70. But areas north of the I-70 remain within partly to
mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 40s. Skies will clear
and winds will decrease to below 10 MPH as a surface ridge, which is
currently over western NE, slides into the area this evening into
tonight. The combination of light winds and clear skies may yield
areas of fog overnight. Morning temperatures will bottom-out in the
low to middle 20s.

Our attentions turns towards the continuation of an active midlevel
pattern as the next midlevel low is progged to eject into the
Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance continues
to suggest the midlevel low will remain well-south of the forecast
area, yielding no precipitation Tuesday. Instead, elevated fire
danger is probable Tuesday afternoon as southwesterly winds increase
to 10-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH. Deep mixing of the boundary layer
look to result in high temperatures into the low to mid 60s with
minimum relative humidity values nearing the 20 percent mark.

Surface and midlevel ridging will overspread the area for midweek
with temperatures remaining in the 60s. The next midlevel low is
expected to eject into the Southern Plains Friday with a similar
track as Tuesday`s. As a result, the potential for precipitation
appears low ATTM. High temperatures will remain in the 60s through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

BKN MVFR ceilings near the Nebraska border dissipate this evening
with predominantly VFR conditions forecast for the TAF period.
The exception is in the river valleys between 09-14Z where shallow
fog may develop. Northerly winds decrease this evening, back to
the southwest for Monday morning, then veer back to the northwest
by Monday afternoon--with winds mainly under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Skow


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