Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 240921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

A closed upper level low was propagating east along the OK/KS
state line per the 09Z water vapor imagery. Surface obs also
showed the associated surface low just south of the KS state line
in northwest OK. There has been a gradual deepening of the system
over the past couple hours even though it is nearly vertically
stacked. Profiler data at 850MB shows an easterly wind across east
central KS denoting the wrapped up nature of the system and why
rain has been slow to spread north. Further upstream, water vapor
showed another shortwave digging southeast into the central


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

For today and tonight, the weather will be driven by the closed
low to the south exiting the area this afternoon, followed by the
next wave moving in tonight. Much of the guidance shows the
dynamics from this morning`s closed low pushing east into MO by
the afternoon with only some lingering QPF over far eastern KS.
Then vorticity advection is progged to develop over northern KS
tonight as the next wave moves in. So think there will be a break
in precip for the afternoon. Temps should remain well above
freezing today with any cold air advection remaining pretty weak.
And highs today are expected to remain fairly close to current
temps with cloud cover limiting insolation and weak northerly
winds preventing any warm air advection. So highs are expected to
range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

There is expected to be some weak cold air advection overnight with
temps falling into the lower 30s. So as the vorticity advection
increases rain spreading in from the northwest could mix in with or
change over to snow overnight tonight. With moisture remaining
rather limited precip amounts are only progged to be around a tenth
of an inch or less. So any snow amounts are likely to remain light.
With the recent warm weather, it is unclear how much of an impact
any snow would have on driving conditions since many of the KDOT
pavement temps are currently in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

Tuesday and Tuesday night continue to have a chance for rain and
snow. Models show the deformation zone of the second upper low
moving across the area on Tuesday. Forecast soundings show
reasonable saturation for the weak vertical motion to work with.
There are even indications for very weak surface based instability
developing as low level lapse rates steepen thanks to increasing
cold air advection. Have gone with some likely POPs for a light
QPF event as models show a reasonable setup for showers. Depending
on what surface temps are, these could be rain or snow showers.
And have again gone cooler with temps than guidance given the
setup with northerly winds and cloudy skies. Think temps are
likely to remain in the 30s for the majority of the day. Overall
snow amounts are forecast to be minor with around a half inch
possible across northern counties and a dusting further south. As
the second system exits and cold air advection continues, lows
Tuesday night should drop into the 20s. Think there should be some
clouds and enough mixing of the boundary layer to keep temps from
falling much more than the lower 20s.

Northwest flow sets up for Wednesday through Friday and there
continues to be a signal for a couple weak waves to move over the
forecast area within the pattern. The GFS is starting to show a
little better saturation with these waves but still struggles to
generate any QPF. So have kept the forecast dry for now, but we`ll
need to monitor trends. Temps gradually moderate through the second
half of the work week before stronger height rises and low level
warm air advection kicks in for the weekend. We may see highs near
60 again by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

Rain continues to slowly spread northward across the area tonight
and persists through the morning, ending from west to east
through the day. MVFR to IFR restrictions are likely in the
heaviest rainfall areas. Northeast to north winds increase late
tonight with speeds of 10 to 20 kts at sunrise, decreasing during
the mid to late afternoon. Ceilings may briefly lift to VFR by
the late afternoon in many locations.

Looking ahead, widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings spread southward
Monday night and last through Wednesday morning.




SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Skow is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.