Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
378 FXUS63 KTOP 101111 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 511 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above normal temperatures expected this week with highs in the 60s. - Chance (30%) for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 A closed upper low is progressing east across Iowa this morning with flow becoming zonal across the Central Plains. Mostly sunny skies and a downslope component of the low-level winds will aid in warming temperatures into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. A weak surface boundary moves through the area on Monday with winds switching to the north-northeast. CAA is weak and 850mb temperatures of 8-10 degrees C along with sunny skies will translate to highs reaching into the 60s once again. A stronger wave ejects across the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday with deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement in the characteristics of this wave. The GEFS suite has come into alignment with the ENS in a more amplified/elongated trough across the center of the CONUS with showers and a few thunderstorms developing ahead of an advancing cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Differences in the coverage and timing of precipitation is noted in guidance, although the overall trend has been a slower progression of the wave and precipitation may linger into the afternoon on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with only around a 20% chance for 0.25" of rain across the area. Mid-level ridging builds overhead on Thursday before flow becomes southwesterly this weekend ahead of a longwave trough deepening over the western CONUS. Dry conditions are favored through at least early Saturday before a cold front moves through late Saturday, bringing a low chance of rain. Variability in temperatures over the next seven days is quite low with highs holding steady in the 60s each day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 511 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 VFR conditions expected. A diurnal cumulus deck around 2500ft develops this afternoon with a band of MVFR cigs dropping south out of Nebraska. Uncertainty remains in how far south this cloud deck will progress; KMHK could be impacted between 22-01z. Winds from the west around 10kts through the day weaken this evening. Fog development is possible after 06z Monday, but confidence is too low for inclusion. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan