Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231105
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as high pressure builds into the region behind
the cold front that moved through the area Thursday/Thursday night.
With winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph
out of the west-northwest this afternoon and relative humidity values
dropping to 20-30 percent, fire weather will be of concern. Fire
spread rates will become enhanced as we move through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal for this time of
year as we move through the weekend and into early next week with near
record high temperatures possible early next week. With south-southwesterly
winds increasing Sunday into early next week, fire weather conditions
will continue to be a concern and will need to be monitored.

There continues to be pretty significant differences between the GFS and
the ECMWF on the timing of the next cold front slated to move through
the region. The ECMWF continues to be the more progressive of the two.
Since the forecast is largely based on the NBM which tends to favor the
ECMWF, the forecast reflects the more progressive solution. Still looking
for the potential of thunderstorms Tuesday evening/night as the front
moves through. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, especially
from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

The temperature are expected to be noticeably colder behind the front
Wednesday into Wednesday night with readings dropping to just below
normal during that time. Rain chances return Thursday as a
mid-level shortwave moves out of the southwest and across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for all sites.
Northwest winds increase this afternoon, gusting to near 20 kts,
especially for NW AR sites. Winds become lighter this evening and
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  39  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   71  42  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  41  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   71  35  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  35  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  38  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   70  39  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   69  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   71  40  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   71  42  72  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...43


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