505
FXUS64 KTSA 221736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

 - Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today with a few isolated
   showers or storms mainly south of I-40.

 - An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing
   through Sunday. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and
   locally heavy rainfall are expected.

 - Drier weather is expected Monday to Tuesday before rain chances
   increase mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Satellite imagery shows extensive low clouds across the region
today, with model soundings confirming a fairly deep saturated
layer up through the lowest several thousand feet of the
atmosphere. Cloudy or mostly cloudy conditions will persist
into the afternoon, though some thinning is expected during the
afternoon allowing for some periods of sun late in the day.

With that in mind, a deep trough across the northwest USA and
corresponding area of surface low pressure in the northern plains
will keep southerly flow going through tonight. Isentropic lift
has been wringing a few showers out thus far, mainly south of
I-40. This will continue the next few hours before shifting east
and ending for the forecast area. Given these factors, kept high
temperatures on the cooler side of guidance today, mainly in the
lower 70s. Overnight lows will be mild, mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The trough currently in the Pacific Northwest will shift southeast
Thursday, with lowering heights across the region. Morning clouds
may break up a bit sooner (some models like the NAM say
otherwise), allowing temperatures to reach the upper 70s Thursday.
With increasing upper level diffluence and low level instability,
the potential for thunderstorms (including severe) will increase.
At this time CAMs are not all that excited due to potential
capping and dry air entrainment issues, but the potential
certainly is there late Thursday into Friday morning. Storms will
first impact northeast OK, shifting into northwest AR and portions
of southeast Oklahoma as well. Locally heavy rainfall may occur.
In terms of severe weather, given that storms will consolidate
into a line, wind is expected to be the main hazard. If any line
segments can become favorably oriented (NW-SE) a few QLCS
tornadoes may also occur, though this isn`t considered likely
right now.

Behind the outflow on Friday, skies will clear out with northerly
flow developing. High temperatures will remain about the same Friday
as cool advection is offset by more abundant sunshine. Temperatures
will cool a bit into Saturday morning, however, with a brief drop in
low level moisture. Southerly flow returns Saturday during the day
with a renewal of warm and moist air advection. This will occur as
a Pacific cut off low merges with the upper low that will still
be stationary over the Northern Great Plains. This will help
increase upper level wind speeds and diffluence. Model guidance is
fairly confident in the big picture but is uncertain on the
details later Saturday through Sunday. In general the environment
will be higher end in terms of convective potential, but it
remains uncertain whether there will be sufficient moisture to
break the capping inversion. And even if this does happen, whether
it will happen in a way to allow for the release of the higher
end conditional instability. With that said, Saturday and Sunday
will need to be watched closely for significant severe potential
with all hazard types on the table.

A cold front Monday morning will bring slightly cooler but much
drier air back to the area. This will put a temporary end to the
active pattern, but it appears yet another western trough will
increase rain and thunder chances into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds will be the main impact to aviation through this
forecast. An upward trend in cigs is expected into the afternoon,
though this is occurring slower than forecast at some sites. MVFR
or low-end VFR will prevail by the end of the day. A return of
lower cigs is expected overnight, with MVFR to IFR expected. Gusty
south winds are expected on Thursday, with improvement in cigs
expected just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  78  63  79 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   61  82  66  81 /   0  10  50  70
MLC   64  79  66  81 /  10  10  40  40
BVO   61  79  60  78 /  10  10  60  30
FYV   58  78  62  76 /   0  10  60  80
BYV   59  78  63  75 /   0  10  50  80
MKO   62  77  64  77 /   0  10  50  60
MIO   62  77  61  75 /   0  10  70  50
F10   63  78  64  79 /  10  10  40  40
HHW   62  78  66  81 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30