508
FXUS64 KTSA 161836
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
136 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Below normal temperatures with mostly cloudy skies will continue
through tonight. A few areas of clearing are noted towards north-
central OK, while further east areas of light rain and a few
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in far eastern OK and western
AR. For the remainder of the afternoon and overnight hours, most
of eastern OK will be dry or mainly dry, with just scattered
showers at times. As you head eastwards into far eastern OK and
especially northwestern AR, showers and thunderstorms are more
likely. Severe weather is not expected at this time. Temperatures
will cool from the mid to upper 70s this afternoon to the lower
60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The upper level low will move overhead on Friday as an open wave.
Shear profiles will be poor, but the cooling upper levels and good
MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will promote pop up showers and
thunderstorms, especially with any sun breaks. The main hazards
would be brief heavy rain, gusty wind, small hail, and lightning.
By Friday evening the upper level low will be east and lingering
precipitation should be on the way out.

Much warmer temperatures are expected Saturday-Monday as the upper
level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures will climb into the mid to
upper 80s. Considering that there should be decent low level
moisture with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, the heat index
will likely climb into the low 90s in spots (especially Sun-Mon),
making it feel a bit more like summer.

As early as Sunday, the influence of a building western USA trough
will begin to be felt across the area as a weak shortwave passes
just to the north of the area. With decent instability and shear,
but marginal forcing, it may be just enough to initiate a few
showers and storms near the KS border Sunday evening. The upper
level low will then pivot across the northern Plains Tuesday,
pushing a cold front through the forecast area. Considering ample
instability, moisture, and lift it is likely that showers and
thunderstorms will break out along the cold front. Upper level
flow will be anomalously strong with a powerful subtropical jet
nosing into the region Tuesday as the cold frontal forcing
arrives. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms appear to be possible
if not probable, though specific details are scarce given the lead
time and model uncertainties with the event. Ensemble guidance
suggests the best chance of stormy weather would be across the
southeast half of the area at this time, but models are often too
aggressive with their eastward motion of fronts this time of year,
so we will continue to need to watch this potential.

Wednesday will likely be quiet behind the system from Tuesday,
assuming current guidance holds, but another low moving into the
western US and then ejecting eastwards will increase rain/thunder
chances again Thursday-Friday next week. As confidence in timing
is low, mainly kept 15-30% PoPs each evening during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Not confident regarding precip coverage for this TAF, so stayed
conservative and used VCTS or VCSH mention during the more favored
times in the CAM data. Cigs should be VFR for the most part thru
this TAF period, aside from some lingering MVFR in the near term
across E OK, and by late tonight into tomorrow morning when
guidance suggests a chance of lower cigs and/or vsbys at times.
Used TEMPOs to convey a higher probability chance but not
confident enough for prevailing at any one site.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  79  61  85 /  50  50  10   0
FSM   65  79  63  84 /  60  70  30  10
MLC   62  77  60  85 /  40  60  20  10
BVO   60  78  57  85 /  40  30  10   0
FYV   60  76  57  83 /  60  70  30  10
BYV   60  74  58  81 /  60  70  30  20
MKO   63  76  61  84 /  50  60  20  10
MIO   60  77  58  83 /  50  50  10  10
F10   62  77  60  84 /  40  60  10  10
HHW   63  77  62  83 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30