Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 231601
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
701 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is seeing a change to a more southerly flow
pattern that will bring much warmer temperatures to all of
Northern Alaska today, with well above normal temperatures
continuing into the weekend. A series of weather systems will move
north over Northern Alaska this week, bringing periods of snow,
blowing snow to the West Coast and Western Interior, with a chance
of freezing rain in the southwest Interior. These systems will
bring moderate east winds to much of the West Coast and Interior,
while periods of strong chinook winds will occur over the Alaska
Range keeping the southeast Interior warm and dry.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude trough over the
Bering and NW Pacific with a high amplitude ridge over the NE
Pacific, Eastern Alaska and NW Canada, will persist into the
weekend.

A series of strong short wave troughs will rotate out of the long
wave trough over the next 3 days, causing strong surface lows to
develop in the Gulf of Alaska move north over Alaska.

Surface...
A low pressure trough over the North Slope of Alaska will deepen
through Friday. This will cause east winds to increase through
Fri. This will cause stratus and fog to persist, with blowing snow
developing Fri.

A strong low in the central Bering Sea will move west through
tonight. A weather front from this low to the Bering Strait to
the Brooks Range will move over the North Slope today.

A strong low in Bristol Bay will move to the Yukon Delta
as a 982 mb low by 3pm Wed, to the Bering Strait as 990 mb low by
3am Thu and then weaken. There will be 2-4 inches of snow with
this low center along with gale force winds and blowing snow.
There is possible freezing rain in zones 214 215 216 and 227
through tonight with this system. There are WWA for zones 211 212
213 214 215 and 216 with this through this evening.

A 3rd strong low will move north into the southeast Bering Sea by
3pm Thu, and to the Central Bering Sea by 3pm and to Norton Sound
by Fri. This will bring move snow to the West Coast Thu and Thu
night, and then to much of the Western Interior Fri.

Could see another batch of Strong chinook winds with this system
Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. Similar solutions through 3am Thu.
After 3am Thu see significant differences between models in the
speed, strength and location of short wave troughs and their
associated surface systems as they move north over northern
Alaska. At this time ECMF and Canadian seem to be a compromise
between the NAM and GFS. Since these weather systems are coming
out of a high amplitude trough in the data void area of the N
Pacific, the ECMF with its better initialization, typically does
better with systems coming from this area. The NAM and GFS show
higher snow amounts than the ECMF in the Western Interior today,
and again Thu night and Fri. Since the weather systems have SE
flow across the Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, expect the lower
amounts per the ECMF.

Favor ECMF from today into Fri. Must maintain fair amount of
uncertainty Thu into Fri due to larger than normal model spread.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on low pressure
centers, but all models verify 2-4 mb too weak on the high
pressure over the Yukon Territory of Canada. For this reason
expect E winds 3-5 kt stronger than models indicate today and
tonight across the Eastern Interior.



Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JB JAN 19



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