Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 211038
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet weather-wise throughout the northern half of the
state with continued broad troughing aloft promoting cloudy,
cool, and wet conditions for most places. A weather front will
approach the NW Arctic Coast this morning bringing another round
of mixed precipitation consisting of rain and snow to the North
Slope. Warmer temperatures by a couple of degrees Tuesday for the
Interior followed by a cooling trend of temperatures everywhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
21/00Z 500 mb models aloft and 21/06Z models at the surface
initialized fairly well with minor differences, with the
exception of Inuvik in the Northwest Territory in Canada with an
approximate difference of 130 meters at 500 mb. Nearest locations
and elsewhere initialized around 10 meters difference. Models
overall in fairly good agreement in the early short term. Standout
differences only occur with the approaching low from the high
Arctic, as models hint at this feature becoming somewhat
stationary Tuesday into Wednesday.

The aforementioned low, a 993 mb in the high Arctic, will
strengthen only a couple of millibars as it approaches the Arctic
Coast. This is the main feature in the short term, as other
surface lows move into the Gulf Alaska with little to no effects
for Northern Alaska, including a 980 mb low centered over Unalaska
in the Aleutians. The Interior will then be sandwiched between
these two systems with ridging trying to build in from both the
West Coast and SE Interior. Downsloping over the Brooks Range will
also aid in clearer conditions for the Interior going into the
middle of the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Any place that will see breaks in the clouds and resulting falling
temperatures could experience patchy fog this morning.
Benign weather today for much of the area except precipitation
that will be confined mostly to the Alaska Range with scattered
showers possible in the Fortymile Country. Mostly sunny skies and
clear conditions expected for Tuesday with slight warming in the
Central and Eastern Interior. Patchy fog will again be possible
Tuesday morning in some locations.

West Coast and Western Interior...
NE winds on St. Lawrence Island of 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 35
to 40 mph today, but other than that, quiet conditions everywhere
else until precipitation enters the NW and northern Seward
Peninsula overnight tonight due to a front approaching from the
north. The Western Interior will continue to experience clear
conditions with mostly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday
with scattered showers for the Y-K Delta Coast, northern Seward
Peninsula, and upper Noatak Valley`s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winds will begin to increase out of the west from the Chukchi Sea
Coast and east as a front approaches this morning. The coast can
expect a mixture of rain and snow. Modest accumulation in the
Brooks Range, but elevations near 2,000 feet and above on the
northern slopes will mainly be snow with accumulation of 1 to 2
inches each day from this system into Wednesday. Temperatures will
be trending much cooler into the week, especially in the Brooks
Range where some locations will not get above 30 degrees beginning
Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some Brooks Range drainages are causing rising water levels
for the Koyukuk, Kobuk, and Colville Rivers. At this time, no impacts
are expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

KS SEP 20



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