Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 191140
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 AM AKDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good initialization with the 19/00Z against the 19/06Z
surface analysis. Aloft, models are handling the shortwave
dropping southwest across the state about the same with only
height differences in the near term, and height and position
differences beyond 48 hours, but they are not too significant.
Surface solutions continue good run to run continuity.
Precipitation solutions have changed a bit from yesterday, and
are now keeping the precipitation south and east of the Fairbanks
area through most of Friday before the front pushes over the area
Friday night. Will go with an equal blend for most elements, but
kick up the Precipitation probabilities using the SREF.

Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging over the Dateline with a 546 dam
center near 78N extends south over the Chukotsk Peninsula and
southeast over Point Lay to Nenana and southeast over British
Columbia. The center will move south to Wrangel Island by Friday
afternoon at 544 dam, then southwest over northern Siberia by
Sunday morning. A 490 dam center over Banks Island will spawn a
500 dam center over MacKenzie Bay this evening that will move
southwest over the Upper Koyukuk Basin by Friday afternoon at 512
dam, and continue southwest over Nunivak Island by Saturday
afternoon at 512 dam. As the shortwave digs south it will absorb
a 514 dam center over the Alaska Peninsula. The low over Banks
Island will move northeast over the Canadian Archipelago. The a
shortwave spinning north around the low over the Alaska Peninsula
with move over the Gulf of Alaska, then merge with the low digging
southwest over the state. As the shortwave is absorbed, ridging
will build over the southeast mainland, then push west over the
interior as the low moves into the Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...The
shortwave dropping southwest across the area will pull cold air
southwest with the -10C isotherm pushing south of the forecast
area. The -20C isotherm will push southwest to lie from Eagle to
Huslia, then north to Point Barrow by Friday morning, then
receding back to the northeast Saturday. The -10C isotherm will
be pushed back north of the Yukon River Saturday night as the
ridging builds in and south flow brings warmer air north.

Surface...The 1025 mb high near 300 nm north of Wrangel Island
will move south to 150 nm east of Wrangel Island by Saturday
morning with high pressure extending south over the Central Bering
Sea. A 987 mb low over Unimak Island and a 989 mb low in the Gulf
of Alaska will move into Southcentral Alaska and merge into a 995
mb low over Western Cook Inlet Friday morning with a front
swinging around over the Copper River Basin and the Southern
Yukon Territory. The low will start backing to the west Friday
night to be over Kuskokwim Bay by Saturday morning at 995 mb as it
weakens. The low will merge with a low moving south of the Alaska
Peninsula Saturday afternoon. As the low back to the west
troughing will develop northeast across the state and will lie
from the low to Eagle Friday night, and from Cape Newenham to
Demarcation Point by Saturday afternoon. The trough will continue
to swing around the low to be over the West Coast by Sunday
morning. Precipitation associated with the trough will move over
the southeast interior late tonight and slowly move northeast into
the interior. As the trough continues to swing around the
precipitation will diminish north of the Tanana River by Sunday
morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Some higher clouds moving south
over the Eastern Arctic Coast this morning with lower clouds
expected as a decaying low moves south over the Beaufort Sea to
the coast, then dissipates over the Eastern Brooks Range. Light
snow or flurries mainly east of Nuiqsut today with up to 2 inches
possible east of Deadhorse. To the west of Nuiqsut mainly clear
skies. Strong winds over the Northwest Coast will diminish through
the day. Visibilities have improved, so have cancelled the Winter
Weather Advisory. Blowing snow will still hinder visibility until
they diminish below 15 mph later today. Temperatures cooling
sharply, 5F to 10F, today as cold air digs southwest over the
area.

West Coast and Western Interior...A few shreds of clouds over the
Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Northeast to east winds continue to diminish with the
exception of the area near Point Hope where winds will increase
this afternoon to around 25 mph and gusty with some blowing snow.
Temperatures cooling 5F to 15F through Saturday morning with the
colder temperature in the inland areas.

Eastern and Central Interior...A few clouds moving through the
area today, but mostly clear conditions will prevail. A trough
will move northwest into the Eastern Interior tonight spreading
clouds and some snow north and northwest to the Yukon River, and
west to the Kuskokwim Mountains Friday. Snowfall amounts Friday
will range from a trace northwest of Livengood to almost a foot
in the Alaska Range. The snow may impact travel going south
through the Alaska Range Friday and Saturday. The trough will
continue to swing around the low moving west of the area Saturday.
Winds mainly northeast at 5 to 15 mph, but expect winds gusting
to 25 mph over higher terrain along the Dalton and Elliott
Highways before diminishing this afternoon. Expect some gusty gap
winds in the Alaska Range Sunday as the leeside trough
strengthens. Temperatures cooling 5F to 15F the next couple days
before warming back up on Saturday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Fire Weather...Minimum Relative Humidity values in the 20s to
around 30 today with the cooler temperatures. High temperatures
only around 40 for most areas. Winds northeast to southeast at 5
to 15 mph. There is currently no threat of thunderstorm activity.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A broad area of low pressure
around a low near the Pribilofs will persist. Expect temperatures
to warm to near seasonal normals across the forecast area. In the
Central Interior highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s,
with overnight lows around 30. No significant precipitation is
expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB APR 18



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