640
FXUS64 KBMX 210217
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
917 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 911 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

Updated withe the latest obs and hires guidance, but with the
current E Conus surface high pressure ridge in place this did not
result in any major changes. We have minimal moisture noted on
satellite. Surface winds are light to near calm with the surface
ridging. Temperatures are currently mild but falling and on track
to our forecast lows of near 60 to the middle 60s.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and
dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley
northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft. The
surface ridge is extending down the spine of the Appalachians
producing a light easterly surface wind across the area. Some weak
surface convergence may kick off a shower or two in the west this
afternoon where a field of cu has developed, but mostly sunny
skies will be the story for the next couple of days with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Clear and mild tonight with lows in the 60s,
and a small chance of some patchy fog early tomorrow morning.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

Upper ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep rain free
conditions across Central Alabama Wednesday and into Thursday. The
northern edge of the ridge will begin to weaken on Friday as an
upper level short wave trough tracks along the southern fringe of
the westerlies. This will produce sufficient lift for scattered
convection across the northern half of Alabama. Once this upper
impulse slides east of Alabama, the ridge could ease back
northward and result in lower rain chances on Saturday. Above
normal temperatures during this period with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours with high
pressure over E Conus in control of C AL weather. Minimal cloud
cover is expected along with SE winds 5-8kts during the day with
mixing. Otherwise, winds will be light/variable to near calm with
generally unrestricted vsby.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light 20 foot winds tonight will become southeast 4-6 mph on
Tuesday. Max RH values tonight above 90 percent. Min RH values
Tuesday and Wednesday 40-50 percent. Next chance for wetting rain
Thursday night across the northwest, with a better chances area-
wide on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    61  88  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  64  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      63  85  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  62  87  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08/86/Martin
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...08