Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
009 FXUS64 KBMX 122344 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 Coverage has been less than Friday, but will continue through at least 10 pm. Haver added in some low PoPs to account for this. Most of the activity will be on the weakening side as one area moves into the east, while a second area will try to move back into the west. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop again overnight and close to sunrise, much like the past few days. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Sunday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 By Sunday, the upper level influences will have moved to the east with that low and mid level weak jet decreasing in strength. The high pressure will have more of an influence over the area, with west to southwesterly prevailing flow remaining. Diurnal convection is once again expected. Lapse rates don`t appear to be quite as steep with less moisture advection. However, instabilities remain high and there is more dry air in the mid levels for evaporative cooling and downburst strength the increase. There could be yet again strong storms, and will advertise a very isolated severe threat for now, dependent on the moisture return available. Heat indices today will be in the mid to upper 90s, with a few isolated pockets of triple digits. Sunday, temperatures will be slightly warmer with heat indices more scattered across the area into the triple digits. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 Monday, a surface high pressure strengthens and becomes centered over an AL/MS area. This will allow for northerly low and mid level flow to prevail, bringing in slightly lower moisture. In the upper levels, models are trying to show a low to the west of the MS, which would allow for more southerly flow. With this in mind, diurnal convection will continue each day, though coverage and intensity should be a lot lower with maybe an isolated strong storm or two possible. By Wednesday, models start to diverge with the GFS showing a low pressure developing in the Gulf and moving towards Alabama. Confidence is low at this time as ECMWF doesn`t show the same level of organization, but does clue into increased rain over the area at the end of next week. Would need to consider the strength of the high and if that low can push into the southeast US. There is a weak upper level trough moving into areas around the Ohio Valley, but the past several model runs have been weakening this feature and showing an influence more in northerly areas. Despite all this, coverage could become more scattered to widespread, especially in areas of the southern half of the state beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the work week. Temperatures will increase through Tuesday, with almost the whole area reaching the triple digits by Tuesday afternoon. Hot temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday, and if the low pressure and increased rain (and cloud cover) holds through Thursday, the temperatures should lower slightly with highs in the low to mid 90s. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 May see a brief thunderstorm at ASN through 1z, with showers as late as 2z. Otherwise clearing skies for most of the night. We will see some MVFR clouds develop around sunrise much like the last few nights. A rinse and repeat on Sunday with showers and storms in the afternoon. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future. Rain chances will remain isolated through the weekend and into next week, increasing by mid week. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 93 71 94 / 20 40 0 20 Anniston 71 92 71 93 / 20 30 0 20 Birmingham 72 93 73 94 / 20 40 0 20 Tuscaloosa 73 93 74 94 / 20 40 10 30 Calera 73 92 73 94 / 20 40 0 20 Auburn 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 0 10 Montgomery 73 94 74 96 / 20 30 0 20 Troy 72 93 73 96 / 20 30 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...16