985
FXUS62 KCAE 132349
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak
upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to
cooler temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week
period. A new upper ridge could build in from the east to end
the week with slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- mostly dry and mild.

Weak ridging persists aloft, with its axis positioned just west
of the region. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is located just off the SC coast, with a general
north/northwest flow in place across the area. Regional radars
showing some scattered convection still ongoing, but mainly
confined to the coastal plains this evening, with majority of
the Midlands and CSRA expected to remain dry through tonight.
Temperatures tonight will be seasonably mild, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continue Monday with a gradual cooling
  trend beginning Tuesday.
- Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening.

Upper ridging on Monday is expected to begin breaking down to begin
the week as an upper trough is forecast to swing by to our north. As
a result, another hot and humid day is in store for Monday. Heat
index values are forecast to be in the 100-105 degree range, with
highest values expected in the CSRA; however, these values are below
our criteria for a Heat Advisory (108 or greater), so holding off
for now. That said, it`s still important to take heat safety
measures to remain cool and avoid heat exhaustion, such as take
breaks from the heat and drink plenty of water. Temperatures begin
to cool down some beginning on Tuesday as the ridge continues to
break down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon and evening. The trend of the potential for a few strong
to marginally severe storms continues. Strong winds, small hail,
locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning will continue to be the
threats of stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- More seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms
  possible each day.

Gradual cooling trend continues into midweek as the upper ridge
shifts to our southeast. An approaching, but weakening front is
forecast to move toward the area Wednesday, bringing a higher chance
for precipitation to the area. After that, model guidance is in good
agreement that upper ridging builds back over the area to end the
week. As a result, temperatures are forecast to warm back up toward
the end of the forecast period. The Hurricane Center is watching an
area for the development of a tropical system in the northern Gulf
mid to late week. Because of the building ridge over our area, all
signs are pointing to the system heading west and away from our
forecast area should one form.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail at the terminals the next 24
hours.

Overnight, expect some mid/high level cloud cover. Guidance is
suggesting some patchy fog formation toward daybreak, but
highest confidence for any development remains at KOGB where
the low level moisture is deepest. Continued to included a
TEMPO group from 08-12Z at KOGB, while all other taf locations
will remain vfr through the period. Winds through the forecast
period will remain light and variable tonight, then turning
slight more out of the east to southeast through the day Monday,
with speeds around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early this week
with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$