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000
FXUS61 KCLE 110314
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1014 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

...Patchy Freezing Light Fog Possible Across Central Ohio...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge across the area overnight. On Tuesday
low pressure will slowly weaken as it moves across the eastern Great
Lakes. High pressure will then return Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Another weakening storm system will move across the
central Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
We have added the mention of possible patchy light freezing fog
across central Ohio through early Tuesday night. Visibilities
range from 1 to 3 miles at several locations down there as well
as showing up on some of the Ohio DOT cams near the Mansfield
area. We have also added a very localized area of light snow
possible for areas of central and southern Richland County.
There have been reports of light snow this evening with some
minor accumulations with pictures from social media. This is a
very localized event.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will ridge across the area overnight. On Tuesday
low pressure will slowly weaken as it moves across the eastern
Great Lakes. High pressure will then return Tuesday night.

So for tonight we will continue to see the cloud cover as low
level moisture remains trapped under a strong subsidence
inversion. Cant rule out some flurries or drizzle across the
area through the evening. No impacts anticipated. Westerly
winds begin to increase enough overnight to begin a very slow
mixing out of the cloud cover from west to east as a trough
moves into the central Great Lakes. However as the trough moves
closer clouds will thicken and lower. Some snow showers will be
possible, mainly across NE Ohio into NW PA. These may linger
into Tuesday night. Some light accumulations will be possible.

Lows tonight will dip into the teens inland and lower 20s near
the lake. Slightly warmer ahead of the trough on Tuesday with
highs ranging from around 30 across inland NW Ohio to the mid
30s elsewhere. Cool again Tuesday night with lows generally
within a couple degrees of 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Amplification of a narrow ridge will take place over the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. The ridge will move east while
upper level low pressure moves east into the local area Wednesday
night. Another ridge will build eastward across the region Thursday
and Thursday night.

A swath of limited moisture will spread east across the area with a
surface low pressure. This feature will bring with it a chance for
some precipitation Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Temperatures should be cold enough at the surface and aloft to
support snow Wednesday through Thursday morning.  Then, as upper
level ridge builds east over the area, a return back to fair weather
will occur.  QPF associated with the system will be very light and
limited with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large upper level ridge will dominate the East Coast by Friday
morning and will continue to push off to the east.  Models show some
differences in the placement and strength of the surface low in
response to the upper level low pressure system.  However, the
trend from all of the models is that the surface low pressure system
will strengthen or deepen as it moves northeast toward the local
area.  The storm system will bring with it some fairly good moisture
and increasing wind speeds.  If this track remains persistent over
the next few days, there is the possibility for some gusty winds
across the area.  The surface and upper level low pressure system
will move off toward the northeast keeping deep troughiness going
through the days Sunday and Monday.

Winds are expected to increase behind the low pressure system at the
surface.  Temperatures will be on the mild side with the warm air
advection pattern shaping up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings with a couple locations seeing IFR like FDY
and MFD. We will likely see not much change in current
conditions through the rest of the night. Eventually all
locations will see VFR ceilings by Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will be light and variable shifting to
southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tonight. Some gusts may approach 20
knots Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday evening into Wednesday with clouds
and flurries.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light and variable through much of this forecast
period.  Winds will then begin to increase as low pressure deepens
and moves northeast across the area Friday into Saturday. Otherwise,
the area should see light winds through the period. Winds then
become light and variable during the early part of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Lombardy