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184
FXUS61 KCLE 242208
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
608 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south through the area this evening.
High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes
tonight through Tuesday, becoming centered off the Mid Atlantic
coast by Tuesday night. Low pressure will track through the
central Great Lakes Wednesday, lifting a cold front north
through the area. High pressure will build across the region by
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms formed along the weak
cold front that moved south across the area this afternoon.
Not expecting much more in the way of thunderstorms over the
next several hours as diurnal heating begins to diminish.  Will
keep mention of a chance to slight chance for showers this evening
and all activity should gradually wane by late tonight.
Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks good.

Original discussion...

Weak front/trough will move south through the area this evening.
Convective activity ahead of the boundary has been fairly
minimal, aside from a weak rumble of thunder near Youngstown
moving east out of the area. Opted for slight chance of showers
for the rest of the evening, becoming dry fairly quickly after
00Z. Thunder chances look minimal at this point, with very weak
instability, better deep layer flow south of the area, marginal
forcing and surface dew points mixed down to near 60 degrees, so
have left thunder out of the forecast at this point.

Lingering clouds are possible tonight behind the boundary, with
low in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds into the
region late tonight through Monday night, with clearing skies
expected through the day and much drier conditions settling into
the region.Highs on Monday will be in the low to upper 70s
across the area, with lows Monday night dropping into the low
50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Fine tuning continues for the short term forecast. Main focus
will be on low pressure moving east from the central Plains and
across the central Great Lakes on Wednesday. Still a fair amount
of uncertainty on how active the warm front will be Tuesday
night and whether likely or better precip chances are needed and
how far east to take them before 12Z Wednesday. Models are
developing a pre- frontal trough to move across the area early
on Wednesday. If this develops then the convective debris may
inhibit much recovery for later Wednesday. Otherwise storms
could be on the strong side. Right now it looks like we will
have a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Thursday high pressure builds in from the west Thursday.
Temperatures will be seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday but humid.
Thursday with the ridge building in from the west, temperatures
begin to climb out west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stretch of hot and humid conditions is on the way for next
weekend. Upper trough over New England will shift off the east coast
on Friday, allowing a ridge to expand north across the Great Lakes
Region. The warmer airmass will advect in from the southwest with
most of Ohio(except far NE) reaching or exceeding the 90 degree mark
on Friday. Temperatures continue to creep up another degree or two
on Saturday and will combine with dewpoints forecast to reach the
lower 70s to make conditions uncomfortable. Heat index values are
forecast to be around 100 degrees for much of the area and Heat
Advisories may be needed at some point. Raised overnight lows a
little more for Saturday night which will provide little relief from
the daytime heat. The atmosphere will generally remain capped during
this stretch with no clear trigger or window to pinpoint when a few
thunderstorms may develop. Will keep the forecast dry although
suspect isolated thunderstorms may develop at some point, but will
wait for models to start to key in on something before adding to the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A line of showers and a couple thunderstorms affected Akron-Canton
and Youngstown and they will continue to move east and southeast
of the area over the next few hours with the cold front.  A few
remaining showers could develop across the area this evening but
will diminish by late tonight.  Main issue will be the possibility
for some lower clouds to develop away from the lake tonight.  Much
improved conditions expected tomorrow with full VFR expected.
Northwest winds will shift around to the north and northeast tonight
into tomorrow morning at 5 to 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough residing over the lake late this afternoon will push ashore
and bring the winds around to the north and northeast. Speeds will
average about 10 to 15 knots through Monday with high pressure
centered north of the lake. Speeds of 15 to 20 knots possible across
the western half of the lake Monday and at a minimum will have a
chop to contend with. As the high shifts southeast Tuesday winds
will respond and come out of the south-southeast Tuesday night. The
next low is still forecast to cross the central lakes Wednesday with
a warm front preceding it late Tuesday night and the cold front on
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will accompany these fronts and winds
increase for  brief time with the cold frontal passage. High
pressure then settles across the Upper Ohio Valley for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Oudeman