Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
611 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Low pressure will move northeast across the northern Great
Lakes today. A warm front extending from the low will move
northeast of the area followed by a cold front by Saturday
morning. The front will become nearly stationary over the local
area and then become a warm front as yet another low pressure
system moves northeast through the western Great Lakes Saturday
and Sunday. A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday.
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley Monday and
Monday night and to the Carolina coast by Tuesday night. A warm
front will lift north across the area Tuesday.


Rain moved into the southern portions of the area and will
continue to move northeast across the area today. The rain will
then pull out to the east and bring an end to precipitation from
west to east. No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...

Yet another round of rain will move into the local area today as low
pressure moves northeast into the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures
have warmed above freezing across the forecast area this morning so
there is no threat for any freezing precipitation.  Rainfall
expected today is expected to be between 0.40" and 0.60" across the
southern tier counties and 0.10" to 0.20" in the north.  A look at 3
hour flood guidance shows the local area should be able to handle
the rainfall expected today so will not issue any flood watches at
this time.

Rain is expected to pull out to the east this afternoon as high
pressure begins to build into the local area.  This should bring a
round of fair weather tonight into tomorrow morning.  Another low
pressure system is expected to move northeast into the western Great
Lakes and this feature will bring more rain to the area and warm air
advection. There is the potential for higher storm total QPF with
this storm system and rainfall amounts of up to 0.70" is expected in
the north with up to 1.25" in the south.  This system appears it has
a much better chance to cause flooding as soil becomes further
saturated lowering 3 hour flood guidance.  Forecast area may need a
flood watch for this system.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal across the
forecast area as periods of warm air advection affect the local
area; especially today.  Slightly cooler temperatures are expected
for Saturday as high pressure builds east across the northern lakes
with cool air advection.


Nearly stationary frontal boundary will be located over central Ohio
Saturday night as strong low pressure moves toward the upper Great
Lakes. A very moist airmass will remain in place with the potential
for flooding rains Saturday night into early Sunday. The rain will
end from west to east on Sunday but we will likely be dealing with
flooded rivers into the first half of next week. The best chances
for flooding appear to be near and south of a line from Findlay to
Meadville where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible. A flood
watch will likely be needed for Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning and may be issued later today or Saturday morning.

High pressure is expected to take control of the region late Sunday
night and continue through Monday night. This will allow the region
to begin drying out.

Sunday will be a breezy warm day with highs in the 50s to near 60.
SLightly cooler on Monday but temperatures will be above seasonal
averages. Highs Monday afternoon should reach the mid 40s to around


High pressure will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Tuesday.
This will allow the next area of low pressure to move toward the
region Wednesday into Thursday. Models are actually in decent
agreement with some rain chances returning Wednesday afternoon and
then gradually increasing into Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower to mid 50s. Slightly
cooler with the increased cloud cover and rain potential on
Wednesday with highs within a couple degrees of 50.


.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread IFR and occasional LIFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period as an area of rain moves northeast
along a stationary front. Temperatures will continue to rise
across the area as the low pressure forces the stationary front
to shift north. Expecting rain to gradually taper off from west
to east across the area late this morning into the early
afternoon. Lingering IFR ceilings expected into tonight.
Visibilities will improve slightly with the ending rain but will
likely settle back into IFR conditions tonight.  Winds will be
around 10 knots most of the area but increasing to 15 to 25
knots at Erie.



Northeast winds this morning will gradually shift to the south this
afternoon. Winds should become southwest in the wake of a frontal
boundary by this evening. High pressure tracks eastward across
Ontario which will keep a frontal boundary south near the Ohio River
Valley for tonight. Low pressure will then deepen as it moves from
the Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday.
Northeasterly winds will once again increase to at least 15 to 20
knots Saturday afternoon and continue into early Sunday morning. As
a cold front moves toward the lake winds will shift to the south and
then southwest. The southwesterly winds will increase significantly
in the wake of the occluded frontal boundary. Expect winds to reach
at least 30 knots Sunday afternoon. Cant completely rule out low end
gales. Winds remain southwest Sunday night into Monday but will
gradually decrease as high pressure increases its influence.




NEAR TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Mullen
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