Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 182338
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
538 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Temperatures are taking a sharp dive early this evening over areas
with deepest snow cover, with some teens as of 5 pm. Dry air,
light winds and clear skies will likely lead to evening lows in
the lower teens or even single digits before upstream high level
cloud cover in the NW flow aloft leads to a slower fall or even
causes temperatures to become more steady later tonight. Have
updated to lower mins several more degrees to around 10 to 15 over
all but the far south.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Despite plenty of sunshine across most of the cwa today
temperatures have been quite cold, thanks to snow cover over most
of the area, clearly seen on visible satellite. Mid afternoon
readings were in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tonight: High pressure will settle into the area this evening,
allowing for clear skies and light winds. This should drop
temperatures into the teens to around 20. These readings are a few
degrees colder than superblend due to the snow cover. Later
tonight the high begins to shift eastward and south winds return,
especially west of the MS River. There may also be some increase
in cirrus clouds. Temperatures should steady out or actually rise
a bit later tonight in our western counties.

Monday: Skies will be mostly cloudy as a short wave trough drops
southeast across the Midwest. Moisture looks limited and some
models suggest a few snow showers are possible in our eastern
counties. Have added a small pop for late in the afternoon with
this trough. Associated with this trough will be a cold front
pushing across the cwa during the day. There may be some flurries
behind this front but will not mention in the grids for now. Ahead
of the front, temperatures should "warm" briefly into the 30s to
around 40 with a south-southwest wind. Winds turn northwest with
the passage of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Chance of rain late in the new week with some models hinting at a
possible snow storm about November 26.

Monday night and Tuesday: Another shot of cold air as arctic high
pressure builds into the area. Lows will be in the teens to around
20 with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday: Major pattern change to a deepening
trough in the Rockies, and a long wave trough arriving into the
Midwest by late in the week. This will allow for a nice warm-up
and any snow left on the ground will have melted by Wednesday.
This trough should spread rain into the area Friday into Friday
night. With a decent storm system tracking across the upper
Midwest there should be a tight gradient with a southerly flow in
place on Friday. I did raise winds somewhat with gusts to 20-25
knots, compared to the superblend which seemed too weak. However,
there is still plenty of room to raise winds even higher, for
later shifts to monitor model trends. Highs during this time frame
should push well into the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 30s.
This will at least get our cwa back to normal temperatures, if not
somewhat above normal for a change.

Sunday into the early part of week 2: Too early for details but
the ECMWF/Canadian hint at a possible snow storm for our area,
while the GFS is much weaker with this system. As of this writing
confidence is low but certainly something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Clear skies and light winds will keep VFR conditions in place
tonight as high pressure exits to the east. Monday will see
increasing cloudiness and light south to southwest winds veering
to northwest with the passage of a weak cold front. This front is
expected to be dry, outside a few flurries. Lowering clouds will
likely lead to MVFR ceilings by late afternoon at CID, DBQ and
MLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets


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