Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232159
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
259 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another chilly evening is on tap for the borderland, as a very
dry air remains in place across the region under clear skies
and light winds. Our cooler weather continues for one more day
Wednesday, with temperatures climbing a little above normal through
the end of your work week. Winds will remain light, but a passing
system further north late in week will bring breezy conditions
Friday. Cooler weather returns this weekend, however it will
remain dry for foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad northwest flow aloft is noted over the region and western
states, with embedded S/WV disturbance now moving over southern
New Mexico. Very little moisture is associated with this feature.
It also remains quite dry across the borderland and region, with
area sfc dewpoint readings able to reach the low teens/high single
digits at best this afternoon. Area 12Z soundings depict presence
of very dry layer in the low levels.

Regime with NW winds aloft will favor our short wave trough
closing off to UL low over far northern Mexico on Wednesday,
before this feature lifts northeast ahead of an approaching
pacific system. That feature remains forecast to track over the
northern/central rockies late in the week with associated cold
frontal passage Friday evening. NW flow aloft follows and may
support the development of another weak shortwave for us early
next week.

GFS and ECMWf solutions forecast a much larger full latitude
trough on a track over the southern rockies by the middle of next
week. Successive model solutions may weaken that feature going
forward, as has been done with the upcoming pacific system for
this weekend.

Highs Wednesday will remain down to a few degrees below normal,
as lowlands reach the upper 50s while readings for higher
elevations climb to the low-mid 40s. Readings warm up to a few
degrees above normal to conclude your work week, with lowland
highs climbing to the mid-upper 60s and mountains to the mid-
upper 40s.

A subtle cool down will follow this weekend, with highs ranging
from the upper 50s-lower 60s lowlands, to lower-mid 40s for our
sky islands.

Temperatures are expected to warm at least a few degrees back
above normal early next week, as high pressure aloft attempts
temporarily build over the western states. However this will
depend on what happens with the short wave and part of what
nearby airmass it can advect across the borderland at that time.

IMPACTS TONIGHT - COLD CONTINUES:
Bundle up! Make sure you and the people you know have adequate
warm clothing to protect against the cold. Bring your pets in and
cover your Plants/Pipes with a towel or blanket. With very dry air
expected to remain in place again this evening, light winds under
clear skies will mean another chilly overnight for your
borderland. Look for morning lows to fall to the single digits
again in favored areas such as lowland and upland valley
locations.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON:

GFS and ECMWF solutions the last few days have maintained a trend
to weaken our trough for this weekend, however the latest 12Z solutions
have strengthened the southward extent of the trough a bit. This
increases my confidence in the development of at least high end breezy
conditions Friday for the borderland. Prog soundings depict 50 mph
H5 winds and 40-45 mph H7 winds across our area Friday. With relative
absence of cloud cover forecasted for that time and lee sfc trof
across eastern NM plains, conditions favor strengthened west
winds Friday afternoon. Passes, gaps and east slopes will see
the highest sustained speeds and gusts during the day.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:
A larger pacific system is forecast into the region middle of next
week. At this juncture, feature track/intensity with extended
solutions favor windy conditions next Wednesday and colder weather
to follow. However successive model runs could dampen this
feature. Nonetheless the situation is something that bears
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SKC through period with winds mainly E to NE 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer temperatures will continue to move into the region over
the remainder of the week with highs getting about 3-5 degrees above
normal by the weekend.  Dry air is here to stay for awhile with
relative humidities continuing in the teens and even some single
digits possible. Winds will be on the lighter side with just some
breezy conditions possible Friday. Vent rates will mainly be poor to
fair over the next couple of days but improve Friday as winds shift
around to the west to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 27  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           26  58  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              20  57  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              15  54  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              16  43  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   22  56  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             22  55  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  20  58  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               20  60  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      32  58  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               21  57  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            29  61  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              24  56  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  23  60  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            26  57  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          22  55  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           11  56  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   14  59  20  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                22  58  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               22  57  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 20  50  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               20  49  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                21  47  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 11  52  17  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               17  55  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               15  56  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             8  54  17  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  16  56  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   12  60  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              24  58  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 20  55  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  18  60  20  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 19  58  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          20  56  22  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              25  55  26  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22-Grzywacz/26-Tripoli


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.