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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 030527
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1027 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

Quiet weather conditions are expected throughout much of the
period as high pressure dominates our weather. The winds will be
generally light and the temperatures beginning to warm to above
the normal from Sunday. Toward next weekend, there is a slight
chance for a mix of rain and snow mainly across the Gila Region
as a storm system is expected move across the Rockies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

Currently, the skies are sunny with the temperatures at the
surface on the cool side in the 40s and the 50s. The winds are
generally light (10 to 15 mph) with occasional gusting of up to 25
mph. For tonight, quiet conditions are expected as the flow aloft
will be dry and from the northwest. The skies will be clear and
the winds at the surface light and generally from the west
northwest, thus, the low temperatures on Sunday morning will be
below the normal in some lowland and mountains area. For Sunday, a
ridge of high pressure will be centered far off the coast of Baja
California with a trough across much of the CONUS. This will
allow for more northwesterly flow across our area. The winds will
be lighter than what they are today as the high temperatures in
the afternoon warm to a couple of degrees above what they will
actually be like this afternoon. Overnight Sunday will be somewhat
similar to that of tonight with the low temperatures a few
degrees warmer than this morning`s low temperatures.

For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be quiet
with generally light winds and warmer temperatures as high
pressure dominates our weather at least through Friday. A dry
shortwave trough will develop across the far Southwest overnight
Tuesday before ejecting into the Rockies overnight Wednesday.
This trough will first start off as a closed cut off low at first
before it opens up into a wave sending a few weak shortwaves
across the New Mexico. By this weekend, there are some
uncertainties in the deterministic models as they try to iron out
the situation with the passage of a low pressure trough moving
from west to east across the Rockies. Both the timing and and how
far south will this system reach are as of now up in the air. Due
to this, a slight chance for rain and snow was introduced in the
forecast across the Gila Region area. More on this as we get
closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies will be clear or
with a few high clouds. Winds will be from the W or NW between
5-10 kts. Although slightly higher speeds are expected over area
mountains. The Sacs continues to have some LLWS, mainly in the
eastern half of the mountain range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the rest of the day, somewhat of a dry airmass will be in
place near the surface. Tonight recovery will be good to
excellent. For Sunday, drier air will move in with no
precipitation in sight. The 20ft winds will be light and the
temperatures above and below the normal. Sunday overnight recovery
will be fair to very good. For Monday, conditions will be somewhat
similar to that of Sunday with slightly drier air near the
surface. The 20ft winds will continue to be light and the
temperatures above the average. For the rest of the period,
conditions will be quiet with light winds and warmer temperatures.
With that being said, there will be no fire weather concerns
across the entire zones through the period.

The min RHs on Sunday will be between 15 and 25% in the lowlands
and 30 and 40% in the mountains. The min RHs on Monday will be
somewhat similar to that of Sunday. The ventilation rates will be
poor to good on Sunday then mainly poor on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  36  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            30  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               29  61  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               27  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               20  37  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    30  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              28  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   28  63  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                26  59  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       35  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                27  63  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             30  65  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               30  55  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   33  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             29  61  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           35  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            27  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    26  65  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 32  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                27  58  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  26  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                23  48  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 22  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  22  58  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                27  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                26  60  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             22  56  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   27  60  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    25  60  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               28  56  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  29  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   27  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  27  61  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           29  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               32  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...29-Crespo