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Issued by NWS
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582 FXUS64 KEPZ 142049 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 249 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Our latest Pacific storm system exits tonight. Winds will lighten up and dust will settle after mid evening. - For Thursday, not as warm, with lighter winds, but still breezy and dry. - Breezy conditions and near normal temperatures will round out the work week. - Windy, dry, and dusty conditions look to return Sunday and Monday. Fire danger will again become critical. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025 We start this package on the back-end of our latest two-day monster Pacific trough that has brought plenty of wind, dust, and fire concerns. The trough moves east, into the plains tonight, with a very minor Pacific front pushing in from the west early this evening. This will turn winds WNW, bring in slightly cooler and more stable air, and help to settle both the winds and the dust this evening. Unfortunately, for Thursday, we don`t totally eliminate all the winds, as we keep some minor troughing to our west, as well as a passing dry, minor disturbance. This should give us more breezy, to low-end windy conditions. Thus we still can`t totally rule out some minor dust concerns. Winds will be much lighter, but still look to get into the 15-25 mph range. Friday looks to follow as our lightest wind day of the week, as the weak disturbance exits early, and we see some minor upper-level ridging. Still, we are looking at a marginally breezy afternoon, with very dry conditions continuing. The trough to our west is poised to eject directly over our region overnight and leave the region early Saturday. This feature comes through quite dry, and is ill-timed for strong winds, but the early influence of the next Pacific storm system will again make for breezy afternoon conditions. Again, with warm temperatures, deep mixing, and SW winds, we could see afternoon haze due to minor blowing dust. Sunday and Monday we look to get pretty direct hits from a double low center Pacific trough. The first round of energy passes Sunday, with tight gradients and sharply increased winds. It appears we could see advisory level wind speeds, and certain dust concerns for SUN afternoon. The second, and main lobe of the upper trough looks to drop in over the Four Corners Monday afternoon, with very tight upper-level gradients, and a deep surface trough to our east. This pattern, and timing, if it holds looks to bring us a very windy day, with wind advisories and high wind warning looking like a high probability at this time. Of course dust and fire will be signicant hazards. The whole system rapidly exits east, into the plains, with a dry and breezy west flow pattern across the region going into mid week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025 Another day of strong winds and areawide blowing dust which will bring the terminals (minus KTCS) periods of MVFR and IFR conditions due to low VSBY. Winds from 250-270 and increasing to 20-25kts with gusts 35-45kts...with tempo 30+kts gusts to 60kts. Widespread blowing dust with VSBY averaging 3-5SM, but some plumes of thicker dust with VSBY 1-3SM expected, with potential impacts to KDMN, KLRU, and KELP btwn 21-02Z. Expect dust to settle aft 02z with winds diminishing to 20-30kts aft 02-03Z...and 10-20kts by 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025 Our current two-day strong storm system, bringing wind, dust, and fire concerns will exit the region tonight, but that won`t totally alleviate the elevated and critical fire concerns going forward, and this moderation in conditions will be relatively short-lived. Winds will remain strong though mid-evening, with a slackening a few hours after sunset. A minor Pacific front, with winds turning more westerly, will bring in air that is actually drier than the dry air currently in place. This means very poor RH recovery tonight, and subsequent nights, and even LOWER afternoon MinRH than we have seen these past couple of CRITICAL fire weather days. Tomorrow, we keep some troughing over the region, and have a minor, and dry, disturbance pass across the area. This will keep our winds breezy. With the dryness in place, it does mean that, despite some moderation and improvement in fire conditions, it will still be at least ELEVATED. For Friday and Saturday, we are basically between storm systems, with some of the lighter winds of the forecast cycle...BUT each afternoon looks to remain breezy, due to the deep mixing and SW winds. With very dry air remaining in place...fire weather conditions will remain elevated despite the somewhat more favorable conditions. Sunday and Monday, the next significant system moves in (a deep Pacific trough), which will bring strong to very strong winds. The air mass will continue quite dry. Temperatures will remain warm with deep mixing/instability. These days both look like high probability of RFWs with Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions. Monday, currently looks like the day with stronger winds between the two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 60 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 63 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 84 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 41 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 41 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 74 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 74 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 40 77 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 79 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 44 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Western El Paso County. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County. NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird