Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252124
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
324 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry weather with afternoon breezes will continue over the
Memorial Holiday weekend and next week. The first in a pair of
late season upper low pressure systems will deliver more
southwest winds to the borderland into early next week. Another
system will trough will follow over the western states later next
week and sustain our afternoon breezes. Lowland highs Saturday
and next week will climb to the low 100`s, with mountain readings
to the upper 70s expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper level ridge is beginning to slowly translate eastward
over the eastern rockies, as late season upper level low pressure
moves onshore over northern Ca. Its approach is starting to tap
increasing amounts of high level ST moisture from off Baja Ca.
Dryline has moved east of the area, with surface dewpoints in
Hudspeth and Otero counties and elsewhere to the low teens at
this time. Light winds area noted across our CWFA this afternoon,
under a full latitude high pressure ridge aloft that extends
northward from western Mexico up along the eastern rockies.

The ridge will translate slowly eastward of the area later Saturday,
as a late season upper low moves into the inter-mountain west.
The low will stall and continue to spin over this general area
through early next week, as it becomes a cutoff feature. Pattern
remains active as another trough digs southeast over the Pacific
northwest. This feature will lift remnants of the low out of the
area, while it continues to dig into the inter-mountain west later
next week.

Pattern should relax next weekend, as the we begin the typical
transition to a more barotropic atmosphere this time of year.
High pressure aloft remains forecast to rebuild build northward
from Mexico at that time that supports light winds and continued
hot weather.

IMPACTS SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
The heat is on - even hotter weather is on tap for Saturday and
later next week. The combination of subsidence and southwest
downslope flow from the Sierra Madre range, will result in lowland
highs from the mid 90s to low 100s, with mountain readings from
the upper 70s to lower 80s. There is a potential for the hot
weather to continue into next weekend with the high expected to
build northward over our area. Drink plenty of water. If you`re
not sweating, you are not drinking enough water.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 to start period, becoming FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN250
after 12Z. Winds will mainly be out of the W to NW AOB 12KTS
becoming S to SW after 12Z at 10-20G30KTS with strongest winds west.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge moving across the region followed by southwest flow will
keep temperatures much above normal with relative humidities into
the single digits through the period. Expect highs in the mid 90s to
near 100.  Winds will be on the increase for Saturday out of the
south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph which will create some near red
flag conditions, especially over Grand and Hidalgo counties. Winds
should remain below critical speeds but come close toward the middle
of next week. Vent rates will remain very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67 101  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67 100  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              61  98  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              61  98  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              52  77  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   61  97  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             56  89  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  58  98  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               58  96  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68 100  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64 102  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            69 104  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  96  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  65 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            65  99  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  98  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           60  98  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   60  99  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                61  99  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  99  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 56  86  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               55  85  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 54  89  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               59  94  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               60  97  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            50  87  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  55  91  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   50  93  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              54  90  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 57  93  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  58  97  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 58  98  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          59  97  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  92  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/20
Tripoli/Grzywacz


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