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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222105
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
205 PM MST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
One more evening of active weather tonight with snowfall over the
mountains and a rain snow mix across the lowlands as a Pacific
cold front advances eastward across the area. Additional
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected over the Gila Region
and Sacramento Mountains with snowfall ending around midnight.
Strong winds behind the cold front will continue overnight,
especially along east slopes of area mountains. Cold overnight
lows and a cool day on Saturday will be followed with drier
weather and a steady warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s weather scenario is currently the tale of two
airmasses. To the west, surface analysis depicts a Pacific cold
front currently near the AZ/NM state line advancing eastward
across the CWA. Mid level cold air advection, sufficient
moisture, and both frontal and orographic lift are combining to
result in widespread rain/snow showers over southeast Arizona,
slowly edging into southwest New Mexico.

Ahead of the boundary, strong southwest flow with decent warm air
advection is allowing for lowland temperatures is climb into the
60s. The windy conditions have also kicked up dust originating
from northwest Chihuahua. Hazy skies and reduced visibilities will
continue through the afternoon across much of Dona Ana and El
Paso County.

Precipitation has been much slower than expected over the Gila
Region, with much of the area actually remaining dry this morning.
The mid level moisture advection as consistently depicted in
numerous models failed to make it this far east and has resulted
in a rather disappointing snowfall forecast for the Gila Region
and southwest NM so far. With only around 12 hours left for snow
to fall before dry air moves in, snow totals for most of southwest
New Mexico have been reduced. 6-8" above 7000 feet in the Gila
with 3-6" around Silver City (6100`) is still expected this
afternoon into tonight before tapering off overnight. Snow over
the Sacramento Mountains will begin around sunset tonight as the
cold front passes with snow chances diminishing around midnight.

An advancing cold front this evening will quickly turn winds to
the west and cool temperatures down to below freezing area-wide.
Ice along roadways from re-frozen water is possible, especially
across the Gila Region and southwest NM. Strong winds behind the
front will continue through the night, especially across our
eastern zones. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph will be possible along east slopes such as the Franklins, San
Andres, and Sacramentos.

Dry air and downward motion behind the trough axis will quickly
dry out the atmosphere on Saturday, with clear skies area- wide by
sunset. Cooler air behind the front will keep the area 10-15
degrees below normal, with another cold morning on Sunday.

Zonal flow dominates the pattern the rest of the forecast period
with a steady warming trend and no precipitation chances in what
seems like a quick leap into spring for the area. Temperatures
will quickly warm back to near normal by Monday and we`ll finish
off February on a warm note.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN015-025 BKN040-060 to start period with area of 1-3SM
-SHRASN over the lowlands moving quickly east and out of area by
06Z. Winds will be or turning westerly across entire area by 02Z at
15-30G40KTS with stronger winds possible on eastern mountain slopes
including at KELP. Skies will become SKC-FEW030-050 FEW-SCT080-100
from west to east by 08Z and SKC all areas by 15Z. Winds will
decrease between 12Z-18Z to 10-20G30KTS all areas except remaining
stronger on eastern slopes of Sacramento Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough and cold front will move through area tonight with rain
and snow ending by about midnight. Strong west winds behind the
front will occur through the night with a gradual slow down Saturday
morning.  Temperatures Saturday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below
normal with many areas struggling to reach 50 degrees. For the
remainder of the period, westerly flow will allow for temperatures
to warm to slightly above but dry with relative humidities falling
into the teens. Winds look to remain below 15 mph through midweek
but possibly become breezy toward the end of the week. Vent rates
drop to poor to good Saturday and then generally fair to good
through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 33  51  33  61 /  60   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           31  48  29  61 /  50   0   0   0
Las Cruces              29  49  30  57 /  60   0   0   0
Alamogordo              27  47  29  57 /  70   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              14  30  20  41 /  90   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   30  51  28  56 /  40   0   0   0
Silver City             20  36  24  47 /  60   0   0   0
Deming                  26  46  25  57 /  40   0   0   0
Lordsburg               23  44  23  56 /  30   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      31  49  34  59 /  60   0   0   0
Dell City               31  52  25  63 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            32  52  31  65 /  50   0   0   0
Loma Linda              26  46  29  57 /  60   0   0   0
Fabens                  31  51  30  62 /  60   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            29  49  29  58 /  60   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          30  50  32  56 /  60   0   0   0
Jornada Range           24  51  26  58 /  60   0   0   0
Hatch                   27  51  26  61 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus                28  48  26  57 /  50   0   0   0
Orogrande               26  49  25  58 /  60   0   0   0
Mayhill                 22  42  25  52 /  80   0   0   0
Mescalero               20  38  23  46 /  90   0   0   0
Timberon                19  38  25  47 /  80   0   0   0
Winston                 19  44  20  49 /  50   0   0   0
Hillsboro               24  48  26  53 /  50   0   0   0
Spaceport               26  51  23  57 /  50   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            15  39  19  46 /  60   0   0   0
Hurley                  20  39  25  51 /  50   0   0   0
Cliff                   21  41  24  56 /  50   0   0   0
Mule Creek              21  37  23  50 /  60   0   0   0
Faywood                 23  42  28  52 /  40   0   0   0
Animas                  23  44  25  57 /  40   0   0   0
Hachita                 23  45  24  55 /  40   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          23  45  25  57 /  40   0   0   0
Cloverdale              22  39  23  48 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for NMZ410-411-413.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for NMZ404-
     405-414>416.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for NMZ414>417.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for NMZ401>403-
     406-408.

TX...Wind Advisory until midnight MST tonight for TXZ418>420-423.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for TXZ421-422-424.

&&

$$

30-Dennhardt/26-Grzywacz