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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280941
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
341 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon season continues across the Borderland. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the week and this weekend. Most
of the activity will be in area mountains with isolated to
scattered storms in the lowlands. Temperatures will continue to
run a few degrees below normal due to cloud cover in the region.

&&
29

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Looks like another active day today as we switch from southerly flow
associated with upper high east of us, to north/northeast flow this
afternoon as upper high re-establishes itself west of the Four
Corners region. Upper trough from northern Texas Panhandle across
northern New Mexico will also help with the northerly flow. This
change of direction will not really add any moisture to our area but
will distribute it more evenly across the entire CWA. PWs come in
around 1.00-1.20" this afternoon which is about 100-130% of normal.
This also leads to a more even distribution of CAPE values of up to
around 700 J/kg. Looking at yesterday`s rainfall; some heavy rain
fell across the Black Range, central Sierra County and the southern
Sacramento Mountains. A decent sample of creeks/arroyos were running
full at times. Given today`s forecast PWs and instability, have
issued a Flash Flood Watch for this afternoon/evening across much of
Grant, Sierra and Otero Counties. The upper trough dropping
southward should act as a good trigger for convection.

There is an upper tropospheric low just south of the Big Bend region
but it should not have much impact on our weather, though it could
slow the southward progression of the upper trough tonight.
Temperatures today should remain below normal with cloud cover and
rain.

&&
17

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Night...
Upper high pressure area will be shifting eastward and expanding
across most of southern US on Wednesday and Thursday. The upper
ridge will remain to the east allowing a plume of tropical
moisture to stream north into Arizona and New Mexico. Precipitable
Water decreases to 0.75 to 1 inch across the area. MUCAPEs remain
between 500 to 1000 J/kg with LIs around -2. The main lifting
mechanism will be orographics. Thus, storms begin in the mountains
each afternoon, and move into the lowlands later in the
afternoon/evening hours. Colliding outflow boundaries will be
another form developing storms in the area. Although, convective
activity will be lower than on Tuesday due to the lack of a strong
system in the area, and slightly less moister. However, the risk
for brief periods of heavy rain and flash flooding continues
mainly for area mountains. Storms don`t appear to have fast
translation speeds, which will allow them to train in the same
spot. Another hazard expected with storms will be gusty winds,
this will be the case mainly in lowland areas.

On Friday, an upper trough starts descending along the West
Coast. This will concentrate the moisture plume into a thinner
stream and push it right over eastern Arizona and New Mexico.
Therefore, the moisture content increases leading to PWs over an
inch areawide. Subsequently, thunderstorm activity increases,
especially during the afternoon hours. This pattern persists
through the weekend and into early next week without much change.
The upper high retrogrades into the Southern Rockies next week,
which should help in cutting the flow of moisture from the south.
Therefore, POPs decrease by next Tuesday. However, moisture will
continue to be trapped under the ridge which means there are still
some storm chances, but mainly over area mountains.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be below normal for late
June and early July due to the moisture and cloud coverage in the
area. Temperatures should remain quite constant through the week
too. GEFS and NBM guidance indicate temps in the low to mid 90s
for the lowlands through the week.

&&
29

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR conditions prevail for the most part with ceilings AOA 090.
There are currently scattered showers in the northern and western
areas, especially around TCS, which could see more showers for
another couple hours. There is some uncertainty regarding the
spatial and temporal coverage of showers tonight, so VCSH/SHRA may
be added to the TAFs into the early morning, most likely for TCS.
Lingering outflow boundaries may also reach the other airports
tonight, possibly causing gusty and variable winds. Otherwise, surface
winds will be from the east and northeast into Tuesday, reaching
into the low teens. Thunderstorms could impact all TAF sites
Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is too low to add to the TAFs at
this point. Outflows and gusty winds may be produced by the
thunderstorm activity and could linger into the evening.

&&
15/39

.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon rain period looks to continue through this weekend.
Upper trough dropping south today to produce scattered thunderstorms
with locally heavy amounts. Given yesterday`s rainfall totals, the
Black Fire burn scar is included in a Flash Flood Watch this
afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage may diminish somewhat
Wed/Thur to mostly the mountains and then increase in coverage again
toward the weekend as southerly flow increases and brings more
moisture to the fire zones. Temperatures should remain a bit below
normal for most of this period.

Min RHs: Lowlands 20-35% through Sunday. Mountains 40-60% through
Sunday. Vent rates mostly fair-good into the weekend.

&&
17

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  70  91  71 /  30  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca           84  65  85  66 /  30  30  40  10
Las Cruces              88  66  90  67 /  30  30  20  10
Alamogordo              84  63  87  64 /  50  20  30   0
Cloudcroft              61  45  63  48 /  70  30  50  10
Truth or Consequences   84  65  88  67 /  40  20  20  10
Silver City             80  59  82  61 /  40  20  30  30
Deming                  88  65  90  64 /  20  30  20  20
Lordsburg               88  66  90  65 /  20  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro      89  70  91  72 /  30  30  20  20
Dell City               86  65  88  66 /  40  40  40   0
Fort Hancock            90  68  92  69 /  30  30  30  20
Loma Linda              82  63  83  65 /  30  30  30  10
Fabens                  90  69  92  70 /  30  30  20  20
Santa Teresa            88  67  89  67 /  30  30  20  20
White Sands HQ          85  65  87  71 /  30  30  20  10
Jornada Range           84  62  87  66 /  50  20  20  10
Hatch                   85  64  89  67 /  40  20  20  10
Columbus                89  68  90  69 /  20  30  10  20
Orogrande               86  64  87  67 /  40  30  30   0
Mayhill                 69  50  74  53 /  70  40  50   0
Mescalero               70  50  74  52 /  70  30  40   0
Timberon                69  50  72  52 /  60  40  50   0
Winston                 76  55  80  58 /  50  20  30  20
Hillsboro               81  61  85  63 /  40  20  20  10
Spaceport               83  62  87  65 /  40  20  20  10
Lake Roberts            79  54  82  56 /  50  20  30  20
Hurley                  84  61  87  61 /  30  20  20  20
Cliff                   86  59  91  56 /  40  20  20  20
Mule Creek              82  56  86  61 /  40  20  30  20
Faywood                 82  61  85  63 /  30  20  20  20
Animas                  89  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
Hachita                 88  65  90  64 /  20  30  20  30
Antelope Wells          88  64  89  64 /  30  30  30  30
Cloverdale              84  62  85  61 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
     NMZ402-403-408-409-412-414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

17-Hefner/29-Crespo/15-Brice/39-Aronson