Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242138
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
238 PM MST Wed Feb 24 2021


.SYNOPSIS...
A fairly active pattern aloft and at the surface, with several
Pacific troughs swinging across the region, and cold fronts
attempting to move in, but the weather changes they bring will be
very minimal. Our region looks to remain dry through the rest of
the week despite the passing disturbances. Temperatures will stay
at or above normal, for the most part, through the week despite an
intrusion or two of slightly cooler air from the east. With the
passing troughs the area will see some breezy afternoons, but
nothing too windy expected. The area will see a brief shot at
mountain snow over northern areas Sunday night, but that storm
looks to pass to quickly to drop significant accumulations.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday.
Fairly strong zonal flow aloft over the region through much of the
period before positively tilted trough passes through later
tomorrow. A cold front is currently located near the
Hudspeth/Culberson county line. There definitely isn`t very cold,
dense air behind the front and temperatures all through the High
Plains are still in the mid 40s to upper 50s.  Models have continued
to hold their ground on solution to how cold and far west front
pushes, although the NAM has trended slightly further east and not
as cold.  The NAM now seems fairly reasonable while before thought
it was pushing front too far west given strong westerly flow aloft,
surface high not very impressive and not that cold of air behind it.
So tonight think front may make it to near the El Paso/Hudspeth
county line keeping westerly winds over the remainder of the area
and a fairly mild night with lows generally in the 30s with 20s in
the usual cold areas.

For Thursday, again think strong westerly flow will not allow any
westward progression of the front and should see some retrogression,
but exactly where it ends up will make a decent temperature
gradient.  For now will expect front to end up in far eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties with highs to the west in the upper 60s to
lower 70s while over the far eastern lowlands, lower to mid 60s look
like reasonable. Winds will be on the increase on warm side of front
where west winds of 15 to 25 mph will be likely. Eastern Sacs will
be on the edge as well and could see temps remain in the 40s east
slopes and 50s west. Not seeing much moisture on back side of the
front where even the upslope flow would provide enough lift for
precip, so will keep pops out of forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...starting Thursday night...
Latest Pacific storm system will be exiting the region during the
Thursday evening hours with a pool of cooler air behind a stacked
up backdoor front hung over the NM Central Mountain chain and W
Texas mountains. The broad-scale, longer range, models keep the
front to our east, with just a minor intrusion into our eastern
zones of Otero and Hudspeth, but the fine-scale, short-term,
models do allow a west push with it that does bring some cooler
air as far west as our central zones (the Rio Grande valley). This
difference in solutions is really not very impactful to the
forecast because it really only means a 5-7 degree difference in
Friday morning temperatures. The warm end of the solutions are
U30s to L40s, while the cooler end is 30-35 degrees. Average lows
(for El Paso are) are in the lower to mid 30s, so light freezes
are still well within seasonal normals. We basically split the
difference on the forecast low temperatures for Friday morning.

By midday Friday, any east push we do get will be quickly washed
out and mixed away by deep westerly flow. Afternoon temperatures
will be at or above normal. The cooler NGM warm us to the M60s,
while the warmer GFS gets the region up to the U60s to N70. Winds
generally lighter and dry zonal flow aloft for a lot of sunshine.

Saturday our region sits under a dry westerly flow pattern, ahead
of the next approaching Pacific storm system. Temperatures will be
pretty similar to Fridays, slightly warmer than seasonal averages.
With dry air remaining in place, sunshine will be abundant. Winds
will tend to increase over Friday, in the afternoon, with
marginally breezy conditions expected.

Sunday we see the next storm system dive out of the NW U.S. over
Central AZ. To our east a backdoor cold front will be dropping
south through the Central Plains. We will be pinched between these
two features. A sharp surface trough will develop over the region
in response to the trough aloft, which should further increase our
winds Sunday afternoon. We will have to keep an eye on that to
see if headlines will be needed for either wind or fire weather
concerns. The cold front to our east should temper the speeds down
a bit. Sunday night the system rolls across S NM with slight
chances for precipitation across our forecast area. The locations
favored will be the area mountains across Grant/Sierra/Otero
counties. Snow levels will be low, and some lowlands may see light
snow, but the system is mostly dry, the coverage of snow/rain is
expected to be quite isolated, and the period of precip looks
brief. So little to no accumulations expected as this system
sweeps across the area overnight and quickly exits Monday morning.


Beyond the system`s exit Monday, the mid-range models (GFS and
ECMWF) take very different tracks going into days 6 and 7 (TUE and
WED). The GFS builds a high pressure ridge over our area, while
the EC drops a second PAC storm into the SW. The GFS would bring
warmer, benign, light wind conditions, the EC solution would be
cooler, a few more clouds, more wind, and very slim precipitation
chances. As of now we are leaning toward the fair weather solution
and wait for another few runs to track the model evolution.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-SCT200-250 through period. Winds light southwest to
start the period and by mid afternoon increasing out of the
southwest to 10-20G30KTS. Winds will decrease tonight to AOB
12KTS, but over far eastern areas of Hudspeth and Otero counties,
a back door front will push in and shift winds to the ESE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry conditions are expected through much of the
weekend. Westerly flow will prevail with just a weak trough
dropping temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow and a few more
Friday. A back door front tomorrow will drop highs 10 to 15
degrees over the eastern Sacs and Hudspeth county. Temperatures
bounce back for Saturday before another cool down starts Sunday as
a fairly strong upper low drops into Arizona and crosses southern
NM Monday bringing a chance for mountain snow showers and below
normal temperatures. Breezy to windy conditions are possible
almost every day with the strongest winds coming Thursday and
Sunday. Relative humidities will remain low with little low level
moisture increase expected, but vent rates will be good to
excellent into the weekend for most fire zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  73  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           42  67  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              36  69  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              36  66  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              27  42  24  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   36  67  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  61  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  31  70  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               31  68  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      41  72  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               32  63  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            41  74  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              39  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  40  74  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            34  72  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          42  69  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           26  71  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   35  69  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                37  71  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               36  69  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 27  46  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               28  52  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                27  51  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 25  59  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               32  65  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               33  68  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            20  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  30  62  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   24  62  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              24  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 33  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  34  69  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 30  70  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          36  70  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  65  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/14/26



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