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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182131
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue into the early
evening hours mainly for our eastern areas, with moderate rainfall
expected from a few cells. Looking ahead, our cloudy weather will
continue for most areas through the end of the week, as an active
weather pattern persists across the southwest. We may see a break
in the clouds Friday afternoon and Saturday, before a cold front
and developing low pressure off the California coast bring the
clouds back on Sunday. The widespread cloud cover will move out of
the area early next week. But the threat of storms may also make
a return at that time. We look to finally dry out later next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern continues across the area, as water vapor
imagery depicts upper low over Utah and attendant trough aloft
over northern Baja Ca. Phasing of these features, has deepened the
fetch of mid and UL moisture from the south/southwest, while
associated sfc and low pressure gradients continue to favor a draw
of Gulf moisture from the southeast. Very weak disturbances as
missed by solutions from recent short term model solutions, are
moving up in the flow ahead of the so Cal trough. Lift with these
features is generating scattered showers and even isolated
thunder across the area, with impressive looking composite
reflectivity returns on radar. Don`t let this fool you however,
as reported 6 hour rain totals from gauges across the area, range
from just over a trace to 0.50". Our upper air releases with the
last 2 runs hinted at the lift, with the introduction of positive
CAPE this morning and a 5-6 kft increase in moisture depth, from
the 18/00Z reports. This yielded a PW increase of 0.41" from 0.59"
yesterday, to 1" this morning.

The low currently over Utah, will weaken and lift northeast into
the plains as an open wave by Friday morning, While a Rex block
develops over the western states. We will be in the active
southern portions of this block; under the influence of induced
low pressure that develops over So Cal. This will draw additional
mid level moisture up from the south. Meanwhile, modest sfc and
low level pressure gradient increases across the region as a
consequence, will serve to draw additional Gulf of Mexico moisture
back our way from the southeast going into the weekend. Approach
of a weak back door cold front early Sat morning, will also help
to maintain cloud cover over the area...particularly for southern
and eastern areas.

The Rex block looks to be fairly short lived, and breaks down
later in the weekend. The result will be lifting of the So Cal.
low into another open wave over the four corners, the first part
of next week. Approach of this feature may trigger rounds of
isolated to scattered storms, with Tuesday and Wednesday as a
focus. Upper wave finally appears as it will move through later
next week and return drier air on west winds to the region.

Temperatures will remain well below normal for most areas at least
through the weekend. Exception may be our western zones that
border Arizona. Here cloud cover may periodically dissipate
enough, to offer some assistance by our old friend the sun.
Looking further ahead, broad high pressure aloft tries to build
over the region late next week, indicating a possible warmup for
us at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
Mainly MVFR conditions to prevail through 15Z-18Z with
SCT-BKN0010-020 OVC020-030 at all terminals. Patchy 2-4SM BR BLO
BKN010 possible between 06Z-15Z.  After 15Z some breaks in the lower
clouds may occur, especially west of Rio Grande with FEW-SCT030-040
BKN040-060. Winds generally east to northeast 5-15KTS with slightly
stronger winds possible on western mountain slopes and west of KLSB.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will start to rebound over the next day or two but
highs will remain below normal as upper low remains off to the west
of the Borderland. Relative humidities will continue to remain above
30-40 percent over the lowlands and higher in the mountains.
East to northeast winds will remain occasionally breezy through at
least Monday/Tuesday of next week and start to shift around as upper
trough exits to the east. Until this trough pushes east, there will
be a daily chance for showers with a few thunderstorms possible
again early next week. Low level inversion will keep vent rates poor
to fair most days during the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 46  67  52  65 /  10  10  10  30
Sierra Blanca           42  63  46  58 /  20  10  20  30
Las Cruces              44  64  48  64 /  20  10  10  10
Alamogordo              44  65  47  65 /  30  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  50  38  46 /  40  30  10   0
Truth or Consequences   45  66  47  64 /  20  20   0  10
Silver City             42  57  45  60 /   0  10  10  10
Deming                  44  65  49  64 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg               44  66  50  66 /   0   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro      47  66  52  64 /  10  10  10  30
Dell City               45  65  48  64 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Hancock            48  68  51  64 /  20  10  20  30
Loma Linda              44  61  48  58 /  20  10  20  20
Fabens                  47  67  51  65 /  10  10  10  30
Santa Teresa            45  65  51  64 /  10  10  10  30
White Sands HQ          46  64  49  64 /  20  10  10  10
Jornada Range           45  64  47  64 /  20  20  10  10
Hatch                   45  66  48  65 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus                46  65  51  64 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande               45  64  49  64 /  20  20  10  10
Mayhill                 40  56  40  51 /  30  20  10   0
Mescalero               41  57  41  53 /  30  30   0   0
Timberon                41  55  41  52 /  30  30  20   0
Winston                 38  60  39  57 /  20  20  20  10
Hillsboro               42  62  44  61 /  20  20  20  10
Spaceport               43  65  46  64 /  20  20   0  10
Lake Roberts            38  62  40  61 /  10  20  10  10
Hurley                  42  59  45  60 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                   37  68  43  65 /   0  10  10  20
Mule Creek              39  66  45  65 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                 43  60  46  60 /  10   0  20  10
Animas                  44  65  49  65 /   0   0  10  20
Hachita                 43  64  48  64 /   0   0  10  20
Antelope Wells          43  64  48  63 /   0   0  10  20
Cloverdale              45  64  49  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22/26
Tripoli/Grzywacz