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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232129
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
329 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent upper trough continuing in place over the Great Basin
for the next several days. Resultant southerly flow aloft will
bring some tropical moisture across the area. A chance of
thunderstorms will continue through Monday, mainly from El Paso
east. A cool front moves in from the east Tuesday, spreading the
moisture to areas west of the Rio Grande Valley. From Tuesday
through most of the remainder of the week, the entire area will
see scattered thunderstorms. A few could become severe, with large
hail and damaging winds. Temperatures after Tuesday will cool
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Persistent long wave upper trough over the Great Basin will
continue in place with very little movement through mid to late
portion of next week. Sub tropical moisture continues to stream
northward in the southerly flow aloft. WV imagery shows plume
still from about El Paso east, although deepest layered moisture
now east of the CWA. Will keep Flash Flood Watch in for eastern
CWA, but have less confidence in this now. Short wave rotating out
of the trough and to the Gila Region now. Lots of CU with this
feature, along with a few showers, but left POPs out of this area
tonight as short wave should be through.

Sunday and Monday...moisture plume continues to hang on in the far
eastern CWA, so kept low POPs in for eastern Hudspeth and Otero
Counties.

Tuesday through Saturday...back door front begins moving in Monday
afternoon, although better push isn`t until Tuesday afternoon.
This easterly push will distribute moisture more evenly across the
CWA, hence higher POPs begin all areas for most of this period.
Modest MUCAPES and good shear environment point to the possibility
of some severe thunderstorms. ECMWF quite similar to GFS with
overall synoptic pattern, but not as bullish with the QPF. Looks
like Wed/Thur will be the best window for thunderstorms. New
closed low forms over Arizona Wednesday night, adding some upper
dynamics to the mix.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
A moisture plume from Mexico is bringing some moisture to the area
through the forecast period. Risk of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms all areas 00Z-06Z the east of the Rio Grande 06Z-
12Z then SE Hudspeth County after 12Z SCT060 SCT100 SCT160 except
briefly in shower and thunderstorm areas SCT-BKN040 BKN-OVC100 2SM
TSRA WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS. Brief MVFR IFR in heavier showers. After
12Z all areas except SE Hudspeth County; ClR TO SCT060 SCT120. Winds
gnly  until 06Z then SW08KTS.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. is pulling some
enhanced mid-level moisture into areas near and east of the Rio
Grande today. This will result in an increase in showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday. Drier air will persist over SW New
Mexico. Temperatures will slowly drop to near normal by Sunday. A
backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and more
widespread precipitation by Tuesday, mainly for areas east of the
Continental Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  85  63  86 /  30   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           62  84  62  84 /  40   0   0  20
Las Cruces              56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  84  58  84 /  20   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              45  65  46  65 /  30   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences   55  82  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             51  79  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  52  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      65  85  63  84 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               62  84  62  85 /  50   0  10  30
Fort Hancock            65  86  65  87 /  40   0   0  10
Loma Linda              64  83  62  84 /  30   0   0  10
Fabens                  65  86  64  86 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            62  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  84  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range           57  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  84  60  85 /  20   0   0  10
Mayhill                 52  78  52  73 /  40   0  10  30
Mescalero               51  76  51  74 /  30   0   0  20
Timberon                51  75  52  73 /  30   0   0  30
Winston                 48  81  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               52  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               55  83  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            45  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  51  80  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   45  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              46  76  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 51  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  49  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  83  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              51  79  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ414>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ419>424.

&&

$$

Hefner/Novlan