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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 091113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
513 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will start off
below 10 knots but increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30
knots. Direction will mainly be 250-280 except at TCS. BLDU is
possible though chances for significant vis reductions are low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical spring conditions for the Borderland today and Monday,
with breezy winds, very dry air, and near normal temperatures. By
mid-week, an influx in moisture will slowly begin to introduce
afternoon storm chances into the region, with the better chances
for rain being Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also begin
to warm slowly through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Sunday and Sunday night...
Very dry, zonal flow aloft will make for a seasonal day today. H500
flow is not particularly strong (30-40 knots), but position of the
jet will create a lee-side low across the Rio Grande Valley of
Central NM. The low will be fairly strong, sub-1000 mb, but it`s
position will not be ideal for winds across the CWA with gradients
not being particularly tight. Nevertheless, winds will be breezy,
but well below any headlines though close to red flag (see fire
discussion). Wind direction will allow any dust off the playas in
Mexico to loft into our Texas counties including all or portions of
the El Paso metro, but lower speeds should preclude any significant
visibility issues. Temperatures will warm close to normal with most
lowland locations in the mid to upper 80s. Forecast guidance shows
H850 flow remaining somewhat strong overnight, so east slope
locations may remain breezy, keeping overnight lows on the mild
side.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Monday will feel like a typical spring day across the Borderland,
with breezy to windy conditions, dew points in the teens, and high
temperatures near seasonal average. This is due to zonal upper level
flow becoming southwesterly during the day, helping to deepen a
surface low in northern NM as it moves across the state.

Tuesday, we begin to play the dryline game as a dryline sets up just
outside of our eastern zones. Models have decent agreement on the
associated surface low sitting over central NM through the day.
However, any westward placement of the low in future model runs
would help with rain chances in our eastern zones. At this time,
Tuesday will be another dry day with breezy afternoon winds,
however wind should be lighter than Monday. Highs will be nearly
identical to Monday.

A backdoor cool front will push through the region Wednesday
morning, bringing short-lived gusty winds during frontal passage
in the morning, especially on west-facing mountain slopes. Winds
look to remain low-end breezy through the afternoon. An influx of
moisture (PW values of roughly 0.4") behind this front will
introduce a slight chance for isolated to scattered storms to the
Sacramento Mountains, and possibly eastern Hudspeth County. Highs
on Wednesday will drop just a handful of degrees below seasonal
average behind the front.

On Thursday, a weak ridge will begin to build over the region, which
will help with a slow warming trend through Saturday. Surface
winds become southerly on Thursday morning, which will allow
moisture to advect into the forecast area from Mexico. This will
increase storm chances area-wide for both Thursday and Friday.
With little forcing under the ridge, daytime heating and
orographic lift will help spark storms over our mountain zones,
and outflows from these storms may move into the lowlands,
sparking further storm development. Don`t hang your hat on this
just yet as there are still many model runs to go before this
moisture, and subsequent storm potential, arrives.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical to critical fire conditions expected today and
tomorrow. A very dry pattern will continue with min RH values
dropping into the single digits for all but the high terrain of the
Sacs for the next several days. RH values will only recover into the
20s each morning. Each afternoon will feature breezy conditions with
winds near critical thresholds for today and Monday. With winds
expected to be a few MPH stronger than Sunday, given the dry
conditions, and high to extreme fire danger, I elected to issue a
fire weather watch for Monday for our New Mexico zones. Winds will
ease on Tuesday. By Wednesday, moisture will begin to move in from
the east helping alleviate fire concerns. Vent rates will be
excellent for today and very good to excellent for Monday.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           85  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              86  56  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              85  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              62  43  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   85  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             76  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  86  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      87  61  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               89  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            90  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  90  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            86  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          85  61  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   86  54  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                87  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               85  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               71  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                71  43  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 78  38  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               82  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               84  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            75  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  79  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   83  44  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              78  40  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 79  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  85  48  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          84  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              79  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...None.
&&

$$

34-Brown/33-Reynolds