Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 291732
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1032 AM MST Wed Jan 29 2020

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
An approaching storm system will bring an increase in clouds later
this afternoon along with isolated to widely scattered SHRA
beginning later this evening into the overnight hours. Most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as RA but PL or SN could mix
into any showers. Little to no accumulation of SN or PL is
expected. Precipitation chances will carry on into the day
Thursday, but probabilities were too low to include into TAFS.
Visibility and ceilings should remain in the VFR category but a
brief reduction to MVFR via visibility is possible if a heavier
shower moves over a site. Winds will favor easterly for each site,
but some variance is likely. Wind speeds are expected to remain
at or below 10 knots throughout the period.

&&

34

.PREV DISCUSSION...459 AM MST Wed Jan 29 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated lowland rain and mountain snow showers develop late this
afternoon across far western areas and will spread eastward into
the overnight hours. Snow levels drop to around 5000 ft late
Wednesday into early Thursday resulting in the potential for a few
light rain showers mixing with snow across portions of the
lowlands. Clearing conditions are expected by Thursday afternoon.
There will be a slight chance for a few showers in the form of
rain/snow/sleet early on Friday across portions of the lowlands
with the next disturbance as well. In addition, winds will be
breezy. A quiet and calm weekend is anticipated with increasing
clouds Sunday and temperatures in the lower 60s. Windy conditions
are becoming increasingly likely next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today (Wed) and Tonight...
Clear skies, dry conditions, and light winds have made for a cold
night/morning across the area, with many lowland areas in the 20s to
start the day, at least outside of the urban centers. A strong
inversion has set up as well. It`s in the mid-20s in the Upper and
Lower Valleys, while the "hot spot" in El Paso is actually South
Franklin Peak where it is 41 F (at 6600+ feet).

Temperatures will see a strong recovery today, with highs rising
into the upper-50s to lower-60s in the lowlands, all within a degree
or two of seasonal averages.

A couple of shortwave troughs -- one over the Lower Colorado River
Valley, and the other over the Great Basin, will phase together over
Arizona by this evening, forming a closed upper low that will drop
into northern Chihuahua, with the main trough axis moving across
New Mexico late tonight into Thursday.

This system will be moisture-starved, with PW values looking to peak
around 0.40 inches as it moves through. Also, a very dry airmass is
in place ahead of the system, with surface dewpoints in the 10s over
much of the lowlands, and it`s even drier just aloft. Winds will
shift into the east and southeast today, boosting low level moisture
slightly.

Upper level forcing will be fairly weak until after sunset, though a
stray shower or two could impact far SW New Mexico before sunset.
The strongest forcing for lift will pass well to our south, and as a
result, we`ll see widely scattered and disorganized showers as the
system approaches Wednesday night. Fairly cold air aloft (-25C at
500 mb) will help drop and the overnight timing will allow snow
levels to drop to around 5000 to 5500 feet overnight, with a mix of
rain and snow possible down to around 4000 to 4500 feet as we head
towards dawn Thursday. However, the overall coverage of showers will
be fairly low, and QPF amounts fairly light. The main impacts, which
will be highly conditional on showers being in just the right place
at the right time, would be slippery roads on the lower mountain
passes (San Agustin and Transmountain) very late tonight. With highs
rising into the 60s in Metro El Paso today, ground and pavement
temperatures will likely be too warm for any slushiness overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
The main piece of energy with the upper level system will be
pushing to the south of the international border on Thursday. Snow
levels drop to around 5000-5500 ft Thursday morning. As a result,
rain/snow showers will be possible across eastern portions of the
forecast area, including El Paso and Hudspeth counties while
western portions will be drying out. By the afternoon hours snow
levels rise to around 6000 ft with widely isolated rain showers
remaining possible across far eastern portions of the CWA. East to
northeast winds during the daytime hours will advect a cooler
airmass into the Borderland with high temperatures well below
average for late January.

A secondary upper level system will dive down from the north and
track through the area late Thursday night into Friday. This
feature will not have much moisture to work with, however, the
disturbance will be robust with 500 mb temperatures ~
-28C. A colder airmass will already be in place across the
 Borderland and consequently, as this piece of energy moves into
 the region late Thursday and early Friday morning, snow levels
 will be near the surface. Based on the latest guidance and
 dynamics associated with this feature, there will be the chance
 for a mix of rain/snow/sleet showers across portions of the
 lowlands with light snow across area mountains. This will be a
 quick hitting system so by the afternoon hours conditions will
 mostly clear. A quick inch or two will be possible across the
 Sacramento Mountains with perhaps a dusting across the luckiest
 portions of the lowlands that see a robust shower. In addition,
 breezy northeasterly winds will develop.

A warming trend is anticipated through this weekend with dry
weather. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday with temperatures
warming into the lower 60s.

The next major storm complex will impact the area Monday and
Tuesday. A potent trough will approach the Four Corners region
and then slowly track north of the area on Tuesday. This will
induce a strong lee cyclone resulting windy conditions across
the entire area on Monday. A cold front associated with the
cyclone will approach the area Monday night into Tuesday with the
potential for snow according to the ECMWF (or little to no
precipitation based on the GFS). In any event, cooler and perhaps
breezy conditions will take hold on Tuesday. A quick look well
into the future shows potential calmer conditions for next
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will bring widely scattered rain and snow
showers to the area tonight into Thursday, along with cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday, when highs will run about 5 to
10 degrees below normal. As the system passes through, Vent Rates
will diminish Thursday, but will improve again on Friday as another
upper level disturbance moves in from the north, accompanied by a
cold front which will enhance north to northeasterly flow on Friday.
Dry and seasonal conditions will return for the weekend. A stronger
upper level disturbance will bring strong westerly winds to the area
on Monday, along with a slight chance of precipitation for the
higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  37  54  33 /   0  30  20   0
Sierra Blanca           60  31  47  28 /   0  30  20   0
Las Cruces              58  32  53  30 /   0  20  10   0
Alamogordo              57  30  51  29 /   0  30  10   0
Cloudcroft              38  20  33  19 /   0  40  30   0
Truth or Consequences   55  31  54  31 /   0  20   0   0
Silver City             51  30  50  28 /   0  30   0   0
Deming                  58  30  55  29 /   0  30   0   0
Lordsburg               58  30  54  29 /   0  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro      61  37  54  34 /   0  30  20   0
Dell City               61  28  50  25 /   0  30  20   0
Fort Hancock            66  32  54  29 /   0  30  20   0
Loma Linda              57  33  47  31 /   0  30  20   0
Fabens                  65  35  55  32 /   0  40  20   0
Santa Teresa            60  32  53  30 /   0  30  20   0
White Sands HQ          58  35  54  34 /   0  20  10   0
Jornada Range           57  30  53  28 /   0  20  10   0
Hatch                   58  30  55  28 /   0  20   0   0
Columbus                58  34  55  32 /   0  30   0   0
Orogrande               58  31  52  28 /   0  30  20   0
Mayhill                 47  24  43  23 /   0  40  30   0
Mescalero               48  23  42  22 /   0  40  30   0
Timberon                46  22  40  20 /   0  40  30   0
Winston                 49  28  47  26 /  10  30   0   0
Hillsboro               54  28  53  26 /   0  20   0   0
Spaceport               56  28  52  26 /   0  30  10   0
Lake Roberts            50  25  50  23 /   0  30  10   0
Hurley                  53  27  52  26 /   0  30   0   0
Cliff                   55  24  57  22 /   0  30   0   0
Mule Creek              52  28  52  28 /  10  20   0   0
Faywood                 53  30  52  28 /   0  30  10   0
Animas                  60  30  55  29 /  20  30   0   0
Hachita                 58  27  55  26 /  10  30   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  30  56  29 /  20  30   0   0
Cloverdale              56  33  51  32 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman/35/34



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