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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172016
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
216 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing upper level disturbance will combine with surface low
pressure to the east to produce breezy to windy conditions across
southern New Mexico and west Texas on Friday. Westerly winds will
bring seasonably warm dry weather Saturday and Sunday before a
cold front causes cooler dry condition on Monday. Warmer and more
dry weather is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short wave trough will move across the Great Basin overnight and
advance eastward across the Rocky Mountains on Friday. Downslope
winds ahead of the system followed by upper dynamics will support
moderate lee cyclone development over southeast Colorado vicinity
with trailing surface trough axis extending through eastern New
Mexico. This scenario will strengthen low and mid level westerly
gradients. Associated inflow of warm air combined with diurnal
warming will result in dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface
to near 650 mb allowing for stronger winds aloft to mix
down. Models also showing very weak instability which may result
in sprinkles or virga with possibly evaporative cooling occurring.
Thus expect windy conditions across portions of the CWA on
Friday, especially southern zones.

Lighter westerly winds will persist behind the trough Saturday and
Sunday resulting in seasonably warm dry weather this weekend. A
cold front will then move southward through the CWA Sunday night
with northerly winds behind the boundary advecting modified
Canadian air. Thus Monday high temperatures should cool to around
3 to 5 degrees below normal.

A subsiding northwest flow aloft plus abundant sunshine will
produce more dry weather with warming temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday. A cold front may bring cooler conditions Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR conditions through the period. Ceilings FEW-SCT100-150
overnight. Winds S/SW less than 10 knots. Main weather impact
beginning tomorrow morning will be increased wind. Wind jumps to 220-
25010G20KT by 12-14Z and 220-25020G30 (perhaps stronger at times) at
all terminals by 18Z Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect a calm evening before wind ramps up tomorrow. An upper level
trough passing north of the forecast area will bring gusty winds
tomorrow through the day, decreasing gradually after dark. Min RH
drop into the upper teens to mid-20s Friday, and therefore are
staying below critical fire weather thresholds at this time. Vent
rates will range from very good to excellent on Friday.

Calmer winds Saturday, however another upper level trough moves in
Sunday night bringing breezy conditions back to the region. Min RH
on Sunday drops into the lower teens. Temperatures remain around
normal through the weekend. Max vent rates drop to poor to fair on
Saturday and will rise to very good on Sunday.

There will be a calm start to the week, with a drier airmass in
place. Min RH will drop into the teens, but winds will remain light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  82  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           54  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              56  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              56  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              39  63  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             49  73  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  56  79  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               55  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  82  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               56  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  84  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              55  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  61  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  81  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  81  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           56  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                59  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  80  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 44  71  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               42  73  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                42  71  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 39  78  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               50  80  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               54  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            40  77  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  49  76  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   39  77  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  76  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 50  78  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  81  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 54  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  77  46  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/33 Reynolds