Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 172223
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will be moving through the region tomorrow.
Temperatures will drop about 10 degrees from todays high. On
Sunday temperatures will be near normal. Next week conditions
appear to remain dry and mild except for another cool front on
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Interesting weather tomorrow as a cold front moves in, this front
will shift its orientation as it is right over us making it a
backdoor cold front by tomorrow evening. However, we still have no
chances of rain tomorrow as it is not bringing enough moisture
with it. PW values go up to half an inch and surface dewpoints
drop into the upper teens as the front crosses the area. Anyways,
high clouds are still possible as a shortwave embedded in the
upper trough allows some instability in the upper levels of the
atmosphere.

On Sunday, dry and cold air behind the front will drop the
temperatures a few degrees to near and/or slightly below normal
values. Freezing temperatures on the mountains are expected, as
well as, many places in the lowlands could be close to freezing
with temps in the mid 30s.

By Tuesday another cool front is expected in the region, both the
GFS and the ECMWF keep showing this system moving along our area
as another upper level trough moves over eastern New Mexico and
West Texas. At the same time, an upper high in southwest US will
start moving east which will allow a northerly flow keeping our
temperatures into the low and mid 70s. Therefore, expect more dry
weather with light winds through next Friday as the upper high
strengthens over us. In other words, Thanksgiving Day is starting
to look like a nice day at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
Zonal flow aloft thru fcst pd with UA trof and associated Pac cold
front passing thru the area today and tonight into Saturday. FEW-SCT
100 SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM through period. Sfc Winds will start WSW 15
G 25KTS SHIFTING WITH FROPA ARN 06Z 330-030 13KTS. OCNL LGT TO MDT
TURBC ONR MTNS BLO 15k MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Latest forecast models are showing higher winds aloft over our area
today which will mix down to dry areas of high fire danger pushing
the lowlands into Red Flag Criterion. Dry weather with above
normal near record warm temperatures for Friday. Breezy winds
15-25 mph with higher gusts this afternoon, near record high
temperatures today followed by cool down of 10-15 degrees Saturday
back to near normal as cold front moves in. Upper high rebuilds
over the western U.S. Sunday and beyond. Warm Sunday and Monday,
but then cool down again Tuesday and Wednesday as another cool
front moves in. Min RHs 10-15% today, then 15-25% Saturday and
Sunday with cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 51  69  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  67  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              45  67  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              43  58  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              34  49  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   42  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             40  65  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  42  68  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  70  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      51  65  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               47  64  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            49  71  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  66  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  49  71  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            47  67  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          46  65  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           39  63  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   41  68  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                45  68  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               46  67  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 39  57  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               37  60  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                38  56  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 31  63  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  64  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               35  65  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            33  68  25  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  39  65  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   29  69  26  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              29  69  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 41  66  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  42  73  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 41  71  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          42  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  72  38  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ111-112.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

29-Crespo/20-Novlan



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