Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200936
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
336 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and windy conditions will occur by this afternoon as
southwest flow increases over the area. Temperatures near 90 will
be possible along the border region. Sunday will also be breezy to
windy with slightly cooler temperatures. A large storm system and
a cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm dry conditions will return
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure that was centered over the region
yesterday, will shift to the east in response to an approaching
upper level trough today. The trough will pass north of the local
area with no precipitation expected. West to southwest winds will
increase into the windy category by the afternoon as stronger
winds aloft mix down to the surface and the surface pressure
gradient tightens across the state. Wind speeds will be in the 20
to 30 mph range by the afternoon with the strongest winds expected
west of the Rio Grande and along the east slopes of area
mountains. Some patchy blowing dust will be possible along the
interstate 10 corridor west of Las Cruces, but the dust should not
be widespread. The increased southwest flow will also result in
warm temperatures with upper 80s to lower 90s possible for the
desert lowlands this afternoon.

Winds will diminish overnight but will increase again on Sunday as
a second weak trough passes north of the area. Wind speeds will
be slightly weaker but will still be in the breezy to near windy
category Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also not be quite as
warm with lower to middle 80s expected for the lowlands.

On Monday, a third trough will deepen into a closed low pressure
system over Arizona. It will begin to drift toward New Mexico by
late Monday afternoon. In addition, a strong backdoor cold front
from the plains will push westward into the region. These two
weather features will arrive over the state at about the same time
on early Tuesday. This will lead to a more unstable and somewhat
more moist atmospheric conditions that could lead to the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Tuesday. At this time, moisture availability will still be pretty
limited which will keep rain amounts spotty and light. Steep
atmospheric lapse rates along with frontal boundary dynamics
should result in some thunderstorm development that could lead to
small hail and strong gusty thunderstorm outflow winds for
Tuesday.

Wednesday will see the low pressure system shifting to the east
during the day. Showers and and thunderstorms will still be
possible but the focus will shift more to the east as the day
progresses. Thursday and Friday will be dry as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will warm back up
above normal both days.

The weather outlook for next weekend is a bit more uncertain as
long range models suggest a low pressure system will develop just
west of the area that could lead to more showers and thunderstorms
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/12Z-21/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the period. P6SM
SKC-SCT150-200 through much of the period. Winds will shift
around to the southwest and increase to 15-25G35KTS by 20Z with
strongest winds west of Rio Grande and along with patchy 3-5SM
BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will move east of the area, resulting in increasing
southwest flow ahead of an approaching trough. Southwest winds
will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph in the mid
to late afternoon. Upgraded Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning as minimum relative humidities also fall into the 6 to 12
percent range. Similar conditions for Sunday, except slightly less
wind and slightly higher relative humidities. For now will hold
off on any highlights for Sunday. Slightly cooler temperatures for
early next week with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday, but significant wetting rains are not
expected. Above normal temps and dry conditions return by the end
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           87  56  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              87  54  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              89  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              65  42  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   86  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             78  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  87  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      90  60  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               92  56  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            95  60  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              85  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  93  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            89  55  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          88  61  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           87  51  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   88  51  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                89  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               88  54  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 77  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               75  46  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                74  44  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 79  41  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               84  50  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               86  49  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  41  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  46  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   85  41  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              80  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 81  49  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  87  49  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 86  47  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          86  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              81  49  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for TXZ055.

&&

$$

04 Lundeen



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.