Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
082 FXUS64 KEPZ 152358 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 558 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of the Divide through Wednesday then across the Borderland for the end of the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas blowing dust. - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 SHORT TERM... Today, conditions are expected to be calmer across much of the CWA as compared to yesterday. Lower level, high pressure build up across southern NM will help limit early onset thunderstorm development. As we head into the afternoon, the high pressure will begin to give way to a small low level disturbance. The western portion of the CWA (Hidalgo, Grant, Sierra Counties) will see the greatest chance for scattered thunderstorms, especially along and west of the Black Range. Areal flooding will be a concern today for areas around the Trout Fire burn scar. Isolated thunderstorm development is also expected for the Sacramento Mts in Otero Co. Flooding remains a concern in the northern regions of the mountains, mainly along burn scars (Salt, South Fork, Seven Springs). Chances for severe weather is low due to lower levels of CAPE and weak wind shear with conditions being a bit more favorable over the western counties as previously mentioned. There will be some gusty outflow winds and blowing dust over Hidalgo and Luna counties is again a concern. Wednesday we will see more of a break regarding thunderstorm development. Higher pressure will move back in slightly, limiting most chances of thunderstorm development to the Sacramentos and Black Range. Temperatures will increase with the Metro seeing a max temp of 97F to 99F. The lower Rio Grande Valley will also see temperatures as high as 101F to 102F. LONG TERM... Thursday is when we will begin to see increased levels of atmospheric moisture begin to push into the state due to a low pressure system off the coast of Baja. Low level disturbances will begin to push out any remaining high pressure allowing for greater chances of development across the CWA. Heavy rainfall is expected with these storms. Areal flooding and flash flooding may occur with the most vulnerable places being burn scars and low lying areas. Friday is when we expect to see the greatest amount of precipitation. An upper level high will keep moisture capped over the state as lower level disturbances continue to aid in development. Heading into the weekend, conditions will begin to calm down as high pressure forms over the Texas panhandle. This will push much of that excess moisture to our west, mainly along the NM/AZ border. Chances of thunderstorm development will remain over the weekend, however the extent of coverage remains unclear with the deep moisture tap getting shut off. Dry air intruding into our CWA plus weak vertical forcing may hinder further development. Temperatures will remain constant, staying within the range of mid to upper 90s. Precipitation will aid in bringing temperatures down slightly across the CWA. Sunday is when we will begin to see temperatures increase as some drier air moves in with the lower Rio Grande Valley reaching 100-104F for the first part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Thunderstorm activity will continue to push westward tonight with an isolated storm or two possible around KDMN. Thunderstorm activity will largely stay to the west of terminals but KDMN is more likely to get an outflow from thunderstorms with BLDU possible. Wind gusts to 25-30KT or so with reduced visibilities possible over the next few hours as noted by the TAFs near KDMN. Quiet conditions tonight but another round of monsoonal thunderstorms expected again tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Modest low level moisture will remain around the region through the period with the main thunderstorm focus being west of the Divide through Wednesday then areawide going into the end of the week. Locally heavy rain will be possible with any storm as motion will be very slow. Min RH`s will be mainly in the 20s and 30s through Saturday before starting to drop back off early next week. Gusty outflow winds will be possible each afternoon, but the general wind flow is expected to be below 15 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 99 75 97 / 10 10 20 20 Sierra Blanca 67 91 66 89 / 10 20 30 40 Las Cruces 70 96 68 95 / 20 20 30 20 Alamogordo 69 96 68 94 / 0 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 53 73 50 71 / 0 30 10 70 Truth or Consequences 71 96 69 93 / 20 40 40 50 Silver City 62 87 59 86 / 50 80 60 80 Deming 68 96 68 95 / 40 30 50 30 Lordsburg 68 92 67 92 / 60 60 70 60 West El Paso Metro 74 97 73 95 / 10 10 20 20 Dell City 70 97 70 95 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 74 101 73 97 / 10 20 30 30 Loma Linda 67 90 65 88 / 10 10 10 30 Fabens 74 100 72 96 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Teresa 73 95 71 94 / 10 10 30 20 White Sands HQ 74 97 71 95 / 10 20 20 30 Jornada Range 67 96 68 95 / 10 20 30 40 Hatch 69 99 69 96 / 20 30 40 40 Columbus 71 96 71 95 / 30 30 50 20 Orogrande 69 94 69 92 / 0 10 10 30 Mayhill 58 84 56 81 / 0 30 10 70 Mescalero 58 85 55 78 / 10 30 10 70 Timberon 55 81 53 79 / 0 20 10 60 Winston 58 88 56 85 / 30 60 50 80 Hillsboro 66 94 63 92 / 30 40 50 60 Spaceport 66 96 66 94 / 10 30 30 50 Lake Roberts 53 87 53 87 / 50 80 70 90 Hurley 65 90 61 89 / 50 70 60 70 Cliff 60 92 59 92 / 60 70 70 80 Mule Creek 56 88 57 87 / 50 80 70 80 Faywood 65 90 62 89 / 40 60 50 70 Animas 68 91 66 91 / 60 60 70 60 Hachita 67 91 66 90 / 50 50 60 50 Antelope Wells 67 88 65 89 / 70 50 70 50 Cloverdale 62 83 61 84 / 70 60 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher