Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 110543
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1043 PM MST Tue Dec 10 2019

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions to begin the TAF period. SKC becoming SCT-BKN250
after 12Z. Slight chance of some BR/FG developing from 08Z til
15Z, with a few vsbys blo 3SM BR/FG with stratus layers blo 010.
Light and variable winds expected thru most of the period, with
winds becoming southeast 7-10kts aft 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...151 PM MST Tue Dec 10 2019...

.SYNOPSIS...
We`ll see more cold temperatures tonight with patchy lowland fog
in a few places. Any fog that does form will erode shortly after
sunrise tomorrow. The rest of the week will be dry as we begin a
warming trend that will peak over the weekend. Increasing winds
are expected over the weekend, with windy conditions possible on
Sunday. Temperatures cool back down to below normal next Monday as
a cold front arrives from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tuesday Night through Wednesday...
Currently satellite shows the area clearing up with a few low level
clouds hanging around. These should move out of the area tonight as
we clear up. Low temperatures will be around 5 degrees cooler
tonight compared with yesterday. Low level moisture hangs around
today and tomorrow, keeping our dew points in the mid to high 30s.
Mid to upper level dry air calls for efficient radiational
cooling tonight. This will set up a good chance for some lowland
fog early Wednesday morning (9Z - 14Z). HRRR and NAM are in
agreement with at least haze and some patchy fog around the
lowlands. GFS is more dry at the surface, but this is typical. Fog
and freezing fog are in the grids for the lowlands due to model
agreement of surface moisture lingering thru Wednesday, dry mid
and upper levels, and very calm winds at the surface.

Tomorrow, the fog and/or haze should burn off by 14Z. Thicker cirrus
will move into the area tomorrow afternoon, allowing our high
temperatures to rise by only 1 or 2 degrees from today. Winds will
be calm. No precipitation chances exist for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Fairly quiet weather in the extended forecast as dry air shifts
into place and the polar jet remains northward closer to the
central Rockies. Models seem to have a decent grip on a shortwave
through passing through the area Wednesday night. This disturbance
looks to be barely noticeable as it has no moisture to work with.
PW values will remain below 0.4" with surface dewpoints in the
upper 20`s/lower 30`s. Cooler air behind the system won`t have
enough juice to reach this far southwest, so we`ll continue the
warming trend into Thursday.

Thursday through Saturday will feature dry, mostly zonal flow
over the region with temperatures peaking 5 to 10 degrees above
normal by Saturday. Next weekend shows signs of being breezy to
windy as an upper trough approaches from our north and surface
pressure gradients tighten in response to lee cyclogenesis.
Sunday looks to be the windiest day of the forecast, with current
GFS gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

The only notable precipitation chances exist next Monday across
our northern mountain zones as frontal lifting could produce a few
rain/snow showers. QPF is light with snow levels at around 6,000
feet, so no snow accumulations over 1" expected at this time.
Cooler weather returns next Monday as long term models send cold,
dry air southward across New Mexico and west Texas. Lowland highs
will return to the 50`s with widespread freezes overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will dip back down to the freezing mark tonight across
southwest New Mexico, with patchy fog possible over the lowlands
and mountain valleys. Winds tomorrow will be light from the south,
leading to generally Poor ventilation.

We`ll see dry weather the rest of the week as temperatures slowly
climb to around 8 degrees above normal by the weekend. Winds look
to increase again Saturday through next Monday as an upper level
system swings by to our north. We could see a few rain/snow
showers along our mountain zones on Monday, but most of the area
will remain dry. Other than a slim chance Monday, no
precipitation chances exist in the current forecast. Cooler air
next Tuesday will knock the area back down to below normal.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 36  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           32  55  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              33  55  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              31  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  42  25  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   32  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             31  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  31  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               34  55  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      37  58  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               30  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            34  62  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              35  54  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  35  60  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            32  57  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          36  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           32  55  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   31  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                34  55  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               32  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 28  54  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               25  50  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 27  48  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               31  55  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               31  55  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  54  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  29  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   25  59  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              31  54  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 31  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  32  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 31  55  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          32  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              34  54  34  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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