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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221054
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
454 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering moisture over parts of Otero and Hudspeth Counties will
result in a few isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening, while drier conditions persist over the rest of the area.
Moisture will seep back towards the Rio Grande during the evening,
and an spotty thunderstorm isn`t completely out of the question
even around El Paso tonight. Slight chances for thunderstorms will
linger out east over the next few days. Temperatures will slowly
climb back up above normal through the week...with upper-90s to
around 100 degrees possible in the lowlands this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High cloud canopy from decaying convection to our east extends
from El Paso into the Sacramento Mountains, with clear skies to
the west. Expect the high clouds to thin-out through the morning
hours, with clearing also coming up from the south.

Despite the rainfall, especially east of the Rio Grande, there has
not really been a good moisture surge overnight, and surface
dewpoints are mostly in the 40s up to the Black Range and
southward to roughly the Luna/Dona Ana County line (note Td of 11
at KDMN and 49 at KLRU). 50s are more common over SE Otero,
eastern El Paso, and most of Hudspeth County.

Most models suggest isolated thunderstorms redeveloping over
Hudspeth and SE Otero Counties very late this afternoon, possibly
spreading westward towards El Paso after dark. The late initiation
seems reasonable given the stabilizing effects of yesterday`s
rainfall. The dryline will likely mix-out to western Hudspeth by
afternoon, then slosh back after sunset, only then bringing the
slight chance for an isolated storm into the area.

Elsewhere, the upper low over southern Nevada will continue to
pull in dry air aloft, with breezy SW flow developing in the
afternoon. Dewpoints look to moderate slightly overnight in the
west (10s and 20s instead of the single digits we`ve been
seeing). Winds will diminish Wed-Thu as the upper low lifts away
from the area. The diminishing SW flow aloft will allow the
dryline to "tease" the eastern quarter of the CWA (mainly SE Otero
and Hudspeth County) with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
for the next several days.

A building ridge will bring hotter temperatures heading into the
weekend, with upper-90s to around 100 in the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light SE flow this morning at KELP will become light SSW this
afternoon, while slightly breezy SW winds will develop elsewhere
(gusts around 20 knots during peak heating). The dryline will
slosh back to the west during the evening, and there`s a slight
chance of a thunderstorm at KELP later this evening, but as the
probability is only around 10 percent, will leave out of the TAF
for the time being.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Good wetting rains for most areas near and east of the Rio Grande
in the past 24 hours. Unfortunately it seems most of the precip
managed to miss a good chunk of the Sacramento Mountains
(particularly between U.S. highways 70 and 82). The dryline will
continue to lurk in eastern Otero/Hudspeth Counties this
afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and this evening. The slight chance of storms will
linger for a few more days.

Elsewhere, dry conditions will persist, with somewhat breezy SW
winds expected this afternoon in the Gila Region (particularly the
Catron County part, with a few gusts in the 30-35 mph range).

Expect temperatures to increase to around 5-10 degrees above
normal by late in the week, with Min RH values dropping into the
lower and middle single digits again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  65  93  66 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           86  64  90  65 /  20  30  10  10
Las Cruces              88  57  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              86  60  89  60 /  20  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              64  42  67  43 /  40  30  30  10
Truth or Consequences   87  58  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             80  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  88  53  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               86  53  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      87  65  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City               87  58  91  58 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Hancock            90  67  94  70 /  20  30   0   0
Loma Linda              83  60  88  61 /  20  30   0   0
Fabens                  89  61  94  62 /  10  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            88  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          87  65  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range           88  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   90  54  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                90  57  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               88  64  91  66 /  20  20   0   0
Mayhill                 71  48  73  49 /  40  30  30  20
Mescalero               73  47  75  47 /  40  20  30  10
Timberon                71  43  73  44 /  40  30  20  10
Winston                 81  46  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               84  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               87  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  42  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   83  41  86  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              82  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 82  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  87  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 88  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          87  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              82  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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