Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
858 FXUS64 KEPZ 182330 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide this afternoon, then favoring western New Mexico and the high terrain over the weekend. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding. - Near normal late July temperatures, lowland highs in the upper nineties to one hundred degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Monsoonal upper high remains fixed over the southern Gulf states, extending west across Texas and New Mexico today. Steady flow aloft of moisture will continue our ongoing weather pattern favorable for thunderstorms. Two upper lows can be seen on satellite water vapor imagery, one over west-central Mexico and the other off the coast of Baja California. Minimal synoptic forcing is present, lacking wind shear aloft and cloud layer mean flow less than 15 knots. This morning`s sounding also shows weak subsident flow within the 500 mb layer, further eroding convective acceleration today. Moisture profile shows surface dewpoints in the mid 50s and PW values 1.2-1.4" across the forecast area. Slightly higher moisture exists over SW New Mexico, where I expect thunderstorm coverage to be a bit higher this evening. ...TODAY AND TONIGHT... Early start to storm chances over the high terrain, with scattered to numerous coverage across the Black Range, Gila Forest, and Sacramento Mountains. Burn scar flooding is the main concern in the next couple hours. Storms will then spread across the NM lowlands, favoring SW New Mexico with scattered hit-an-miss coverage. Most (if not all) storms will be non-severe but could result in gusty winds and brief downpours. Rain showers will stick around later tonight, diminishing after midnight. ...THIS WEEKEND... Better storm coverage across western New Mexico this weekend as the plume of deepest moisture shifts westward. Best chances will be mostly west of the Rio Grande, in particular Grant/Hidalgo Counties. Texas counties may end up completely dry. ...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... Uptick in storm chance once again as the main plume of moisture focuses directly overhead. GFS shows PWs in the 1.4-1.6" range, further increasing flooding risk. ...LATE NEXT WEEK... Upper high makes a full retrograde over the south-central US by next Wednesday, suppressing storm severity and reducing coverage of thunderstorms. However, with moisture still hanging around can`t completely rule out rain chances each afternoon after Wednesday. Coverage will be scattered over mountains and more isolated across the desert lowlands. This will also keep temperatures near normal for late July, with lowland highs in the upper 90s each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected for areas west of the Rio Grande with more ISO coverage east of the Rio Grande with coverage gradually dissipating some time after dark with some indications SHRA activity may last as late as 9z for portions of the area. TCS and DMN have TSRA/SHRA ongoing but impacts have been minimal. If a storm moves over a site, VIS reductions will be the main impact along with lightning and gusty winds up to 30 knots. There is no mention of thunder in ELP as prospects for impacts remain in doubt, but conditions/radar will be monitored closely. Otherwise, expect SCT- BKN090CB through this evening becoming more FEW-SCT by morning. Winds will generally be light apart from thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Primary fire threat remains focused around thunderstorm hazards. Scattered storms across both GNF and LNF this afternoon, spreading across the NM lowlands this evening. Storms will be capable of flash flooding, especially around burn scars. Prevailing winds out of the south 5 to 10 mph resulting in Fair ventilation and min RH 30-40% today. Scattered storms continue this weekend with the best chances across GNF and western NM. No major shifts in the weather pattern next week, with daily afternoon storm chances, near normal temperatures, and light prevailing flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 77 100 / 40 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 66 92 68 93 / 20 10 10 20 Las Cruces 68 95 70 96 / 60 10 30 10 Alamogordo 70 96 71 96 / 30 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 52 73 53 74 / 30 40 10 50 Truth or Consequences 69 94 71 95 / 60 40 40 40 Silver City 63 87 62 88 / 70 70 70 70 Deming 68 97 70 98 / 70 30 50 30 Lordsburg 67 94 67 93 / 70 70 70 60 West El Paso Metro 74 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 10 Dell City 71 97 71 98 / 20 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 74 99 75 100 / 20 10 10 30 Loma Linda 68 90 69 91 / 30 10 10 20 Fabens 73 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 95 73 96 / 50 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 73 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 20 Jornada Range 69 95 70 96 / 60 20 30 30 Hatch 69 97 70 98 / 60 30 40 30 Columbus 71 96 72 97 / 70 20 50 20 Orogrande 69 94 71 95 / 30 10 10 20 Mayhill 57 83 58 84 / 30 40 10 40 Mescalero 56 84 58 85 / 30 40 10 50 Timberon 56 81 57 82 / 30 30 10 40 Winston 58 85 58 85 / 70 60 50 70 Hillsboro 64 93 65 93 / 70 50 50 50 Spaceport 67 94 67 96 / 60 30 30 30 Lake Roberts 57 88 57 88 / 70 80 70 80 Hurley 63 90 63 90 / 70 60 60 60 Cliff 66 94 66 95 / 60 80 60 70 Mule Creek 63 89 63 90 / 60 80 60 70 Faywood 65 90 65 90 / 70 60 60 60 Animas 68 93 68 93 / 70 70 80 60 Hachita 66 92 67 93 / 70 60 70 50 Antelope Wells 66 91 67 90 / 80 70 80 70 Cloverdale 63 86 63 85 / 80 80 80 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown