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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162028
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
228 PM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas resulting in showers and thunderstorms across much of the
Borderland this afternoon through Saturday. A few storms may
produce heavy rains...strong winds and small hail. High pressure
aloft will bring seasonably warm drier weather early next week
with most thunderstorm activity occurring around mountain
locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass is moist and unstable early this afternoon across
southern New Mexico and west Texas with CAPE`s around 1000 J/kg
and precipitable water from 1.1 to 1.3 inches. Surface heating
and upslope winds have initiated thunderstorms around higher
mountains and expect further heating plus storm outflows will
cause activity to spread to much of the CWA later this afternoon
into this evening. Slow movement of storms will enhance threat of
locally heavy rains. DCAPE`s are mostly above 1000 J/kg so strong
downdrafts and small hail possible as well.


Southern portions of the large western United States thermal
low/trough will extend into southern New Mexico and far west Texas
Friday through Saturday causing a convergent low level flow
and inducing shallow uplift in the boundary layer. Moist air will
continue to cover the region with surface dewpoints mostly around
55 to 60 while precipitable water ranges from 1.2 to 1.5 most
areas Friday and Saturday. With warm seasonable afternoon
temperatures air mass should remain unstable the next 2 days with
CAPE`s exceeding 1000 J/kg much of the CWA in the afternoon. Upper
dynamics will remain feeble to non existent given the weak flow
aloft but surface heating...low level convergence and outflows
should initiate and sustain convection with slow storm movement
and abundant moisture indicating heavy rains and flash flooding
may occur over several locations. CAPE and DCAPE values also
suggest small hail and strong downbursts will remain a
possibility.

By Sunday center of high pressure aloft will be located over
Arizona with this feature becoming located around the Arizona-New
Mexico border region Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will
initially cause warmer drier air aloft to flow into the CWA with
subsidence increasing as proximity of high center approaches
western New Mexico. Consequently thunderstorm coverage should
diminish somewhat early next week with most convection occurring
around the higher mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
Generally VFR conditions through the period, but with chances for
localized short-duration MVFR to IFR conditions in vicinity of
thunderstorms. High pressure aloft shifting east will allow for some
moisture gains into the region today. This will make for a more
unstable environment and some increases in storm chances this
afternoon and evening across the area. Generally...skies will become
FEW080 SCT200 with VSBY P6SM and Winds AOB 12kts. However ISOLD to
SCT TSRA over lowlands aft 20Z may produce SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120
OVC200 skies with VSBY reduced to less than 1SM in +RASH, with winds
VRB30G45KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon season moisture is slowly returning to the Fire Weather
Zones today and through the rest of the week. This will mean daily
rounds of late afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Slightly lower temperatures will bring readings
back to near normal for mid- August. Clouds will increase each
afternoon with storms developing fed by ample daytime heating. Heavy
rainfall is likely with some storms, and thus there is potential for
local flash flooding. Drier air and fewer storms back in the
forecast for Sunday and Monday. Min RH values will run in the 30s
lowlands and 40s and 50s highlands for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 93  74  95  73 /  20  40  20  50
Sierra Blanca           91  70  91  69 /  20  30  30  30
Las Cruces              92  70  93  69 /  20  40  20  50
Alamogordo              93  70  92  69 /  30  40  20  50
Cloudcroft              69  56  70  54 /  40  40  40  60
Truth or Consequences   92  70  93  70 /  20  40  20  50
Silver City             84  64  85  63 /  40  50  30  60
Deming                  92  69  93  69 /  30  40  20  50
Lordsburg               90  69  92  69 /  40  40  20  50
West El Paso Metro      93  73  95  73 /  20  40  20  50
Dell City               95  70  95  70 /  20  30  40  30
Fort Hancock            95  72  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
Loma Linda              89  71  90  69 /  20  40  30  50
Fabens                  94  71  94  71 /  20  40  20  40
Santa Teresa            92  72  94  71 /  20  40  20  50
White Sands HQ          92  71  94  70 /  20  40  20  50
Jornada Range           93  69  93  69 /  20  40  20  50
Hatch                   94  70  94  70 /  20  40  20  50
Columbus                92  71  94  70 /  30  40  20  50
Orogrande               92  72  93  72 /  30  40  20  50
Mayhill                 79  60  79  59 /  40  40  40  60
Mescalero               79  60  80  59 /  40  40  40  60
Timberon                78  61  78  59 /  40  40  40  60
Winston                 84  61  85  60 /  30  40  30  60
Hillsboro               90  67  90  65 /  30  40  20  60
Spaceport               93  68  93  68 /  20  40  20  50
Lake Roberts            83  59  84  58 /  40  50  30  60
Hurley                  85  65  87  64 /  40  40  20  50
Cliff                   88  64  90  65 /  40  40  30  50
Mule Creek              86  66  89  65 /  40  40  20  50
Faywood                 87  67  88  65 /  40  40  20  60
Animas                  89  69  92  70 /  40  40  20  50
Hachita                 90  69  92  68 /  30  40  20  50
Antelope Wells          87  67  90  66 /  40  40  20  50
Cloverdale              85  66  86  65 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan