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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 280951 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 351 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry air mass will be in place over the Borderland the next 3 days, which will allow afternoon temperatures to return to the century mark or slightly above in most of the lowlands. Some moisture will attempt to move back in by Saturday but only in modest amounts. This will bring isolated thunderstorms to the area, especially over the mountains during the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft is elongated along an east-west axis that lies to the south, while a thermal trough is developing to the northeast. This will result in a deep layer of westerly flow and thus a dry air mass over the area through Friday. Temperatures will return to a little above normal, and no storms are expected during this period. An upper trough passing by to the north will raise surface pressures in its wake down the plains by Saturday which may push a little low level moisture our way from the east. Also over the weekend the upper high will shift northward and eastward. This will eventually allow some mid level moisture to advect in from the south. Therefore isolated storms will return to the forecast Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period (middle of next week). It doesn`t look like widespread activity at this time. Meanwhile afternoon temperatures will top out at or slightly above the century mark in most of the lower elevations for the next several days. && .AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z...SKC-FEW120. VFR through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air has moved in from the west which will put an end to the showers and thunderstorms for at least a few days. Temperatures will be warming back to around 100 degrees for many lowland locations through early next week. Relative humidities will be falling back into the upper single digits to lower teens. There will be a little surge in moisture going into the weekend and early next week with isolated thunderstorms returning. Winds will be occasionally breezy the next couple of days and again early next week which will bring about near critical conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 98 69 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 98 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 79 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 98 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 92 63 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 99 66 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 98 67 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 98 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 101 68 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 100 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 96 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 100 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 99 71 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 98 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 98 65 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 100 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 100 70 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 99 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 88 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 88 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 91 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 95 64 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 98 63 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 90 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 94 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 97 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 94 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 94 63 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 99 67 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 99 66 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 97 68 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 94 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 01 Fausett
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