582
FXUS64 KEPZ 142049
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
249 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Our latest Pacific storm system exits tonight. Winds will
   lighten up and dust will settle after mid evening.

 - For Thursday, not as warm, with lighter winds, but still breezy
   and dry.

 - Breezy conditions and near normal temperatures will round out
   the work week.

 - Windy, dry, and dusty conditions look to return Sunday and
   Monday. Fire danger will again become critical.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

We start this package on the back-end of our latest two-day
monster Pacific trough that has brought plenty of wind, dust, and
fire concerns. The trough moves east, into the plains tonight,
with a very minor Pacific front pushing in from the west early
this evening. This will turn winds WNW, bring in slightly cooler
and more stable air, and help to settle both the winds and the
dust this evening.

Unfortunately, for Thursday, we don`t totally eliminate all the
winds, as we keep some minor troughing to our west, as well as a
passing dry, minor disturbance. This should give us more breezy,
to low-end windy conditions. Thus we still can`t totally rule out
some minor dust concerns. Winds will be much lighter, but still
look to get into the 15-25 mph range. Friday looks to follow as
our lightest wind day of the week, as the weak disturbance exits
early, and we see some minor upper-level ridging. Still, we are
looking at a marginally breezy afternoon, with very dry conditions
continuing. The trough to our west is poised to eject directly
over our region overnight and leave the region early Saturday.
This feature comes through quite dry, and is ill-timed for strong
winds, but the early influence of the next Pacific storm system
will again make for breezy afternoon conditions. Again, with warm
temperatures, deep mixing, and SW winds, we could see afternoon
haze due to minor blowing dust.

Sunday and Monday we look to get pretty direct hits from a double
low center Pacific trough. The first round of energy passes
Sunday, with tight gradients and sharply increased winds. It
appears we could see advisory level wind speeds, and certain dust
concerns for SUN afternoon. The second, and main lobe of the upper
trough looks to drop in over the Four Corners Monday afternoon,
with very tight upper-level gradients, and a deep surface trough
to our east. This pattern, and timing, if it holds looks to bring
us a very windy day, with wind advisories and high wind warning
looking like a high probability at this time. Of course dust and
fire will be signicant hazards.

The whole system rapidly exits east, into the plains, with a dry
and breezy west flow pattern across the region going into mid week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Another day of strong winds and areawide blowing dust which will
bring the terminals (minus KTCS) periods of MVFR and IFR
conditions due to low VSBY. Winds from 250-270 and increasing to
20-25kts with gusts 35-45kts...with tempo 30+kts gusts to 60kts.
Widespread blowing dust with VSBY averaging 3-5SM, but some plumes
of thicker dust with VSBY 1-3SM expected, with potential impacts
to KDMN, KLRU, and KELP btwn 21-02Z. Expect dust to settle aft 02z
with winds diminishing to 20-30kts aft 02-03Z...and 10-20kts by
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Our current two-day strong storm system, bringing wind, dust, and
fire concerns will exit the region tonight, but that won`t totally
alleviate the elevated and critical fire concerns going forward,
and this moderation in conditions will be relatively short-lived.
Winds will remain strong though mid-evening, with a slackening
a few hours after sunset. A minor Pacific front, with winds
turning more westerly, will bring in air that is actually drier
than the dry air currently in place. This means very poor RH
recovery tonight, and subsequent nights, and even LOWER afternoon
MinRH than we have seen these past couple of CRITICAL fire weather
days.

Tomorrow, we keep some troughing over the region, and have a
minor, and dry, disturbance pass across the area. This will keep
our winds breezy. With the dryness in place, it does mean that,
despite some moderation and improvement in fire conditions, it
will still be at least ELEVATED. For Friday and Saturday, we are
basically between storm systems, with some of the lighter winds of
the forecast cycle...BUT each afternoon looks to remain breezy,
due to the deep mixing and SW winds. With very dry air remaining
in place...fire weather conditions will remain elevated despite
the somewhat more favorable conditions.

Sunday and Monday, the next significant system moves in (a deep
Pacific trough), which will bring strong to very strong winds. The
air mass will continue quite dry. Temperatures will remain warm
with deep mixing/instability. These days both look like high
probability of RFWs with Critical to Extreme fire weather
conditions. Monday, currently looks like the day with stronger
winds between the two.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               51  83  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  60  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    50  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   47  84  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  80  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                63  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             65  92  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   63  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  84  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 54  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                41  70  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 41  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  34  74  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  81  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                43  81  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  74  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   40  77  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    40  79  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               39  75  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  83  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  78  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
     Western El Paso County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso
     County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa
     Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
     West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird