Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 271212
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
612 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites this morning,
especially under areas with snow showers. Improvements to flight
categories are possible this afternoon and evening due to higher
CIGS and better VIS. However, we remain mostly under MVFR cat,
except areas west of the Continental Divide where higher CIGS are
possible. Mountain obscurations are possible through the period.
Gusty winds are expected to persist through the morning hours, but
speeds should subside after 18Z.

&&
29

.PREV DISCUSSION...439 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter continues today as the cold front has pushed through the
entire Borderland. Showers continue to fall mostly as snow, but some
sleet or light freezing rain is still possible over west Texas for a
few more hours before this too turns to snow. Total snow
accumulations through tonight are 6 to 12 inches over the mountains
and 1 to 4 inches over the lowlands. The upper low moves into the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday with a few morning flurries ending. The
rest of the week should remain dry and warm, though lingering light
east to northeast winds at the surface will not allow rapid warmup,
with temperatures likely still just below normal over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
The advertised storm system has brought plenty of rain, freezing
rain, ice pellets and snow in the overnight hours. Bands of
precipitation originating in Chihuahua have been moving over the
Borderland  from southwest to the northeast. This activity is
expected to continue into the morning hours as the upper low slowly
moves east from Arizona towards New Mexico. Morning lows will be
around 15 to 20 degrees below normal, with temperatures below
freezing across the area. Thus, most of the precipitation across the
CWA will be snow after 3 AM. The HREF members show decent liquid
water equivalent and snow amounts with values between 0.1" up to
0.5" of QPF possible. The 12-hr snowfall members of the HREF display
the snow mostly over the mountain and northern areas with 1 to 4
inches of snow with some mountain locations seeing up to 6 - 7
inches of snow. 1 to 2 inches of snow are expected across many
locations in the lowlands. Winter weather warnings and advisories
are in effect through Wednesday morning for this reason. However,
the location of where the snow is going to happen in the lowlands is
spotty. So, my confidence is low regarding the locations that will
see snow. Weather does not appear to improve much through the day.
Temperatures this afternoon remain near freezing. Some lowland
locations east of the Rio Grande go back up to above freezing.
However, the Wet Bulb Zero heights continue to be generally below
4000 feet, thus decided to keep mostly snow in the forecast for the
afternoon hours. The lowlands to the west of the river will have
better chances to observe rain rather than snow as the 850 mb
temperatures warm up to above freezing.

In the late afternoon and into the evening hours, dry slotting is
expected to occur with the system around far west Texas. Thus,
precip chances will diminish over El Paso and adjacent areas after
3PM. The center of the low moves east of the CWA after midnight, and
takes most of the precipitation with it. Thus, snow chances drop for
the southern lowlands, but moisture remains over the northern
portions of the CWA, including the Sacs. The low temperatures
tonight will be even colder than today. The whole region is expected
to have temperatures below 30 F, with many locations experiencing
near record low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
The last of the winter storm gradually finally fades away. The storm
begins Wednesday just a little bit north and east of El Paso. Models
still show wrap around moisture over much of the CWA daybreak
Wednesday and then move east as the upper low reaches the Texas
Panhandle by mid afternoon Wednesday. Thus skies will slowly clear
from west to east throughout the day. Left some lingering
flurries over the Sacs for the morning hours but that should end
by around noon or shortly after. THOUGH ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GO
OUT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
DONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. Skies should be mostly clear
Wednesday night for another chilly night, though probably not
quite as cold as Tuesday night.

High pressure aloft gradually builds in over the west coast behind
the exiting low. Additionally sub-tropical jet drifts north over the
Baja and into the Desert Southwest. This all sounds like the making
of a dramatic warmup, but models continue to show otherwise. Surface
high pressure will persist over the Rocky Mtn Front Range and
southern Plains through the weekend. Also developing trough on the
lee of the Pacific ridge develops Thursday and eventually phases in
with mid-latitude jet, dropping down to our area Sunday. This will
allow a dry back door front into the area. Bottom line-surface winds
will remain from southeast to northeast into the weekend. Were this
later in the winter, we would see very little warming. Fortunately
we are still early in the season, so clear skies and sunshine
should allow us to gradually warmup, though still just below
normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Cold air has been rather astute, with terminals dropping rapidly
into the mid 30s, and 20s at KTCS. As a result, and with the
waning warmer air aloft, wintry precipitation has been observed
at all terminals. From here on out, SN will be the precip type at
KTCS, with a mix most other terminals, but mostly -SN. Heavier
bands of precip seem to be setting up around and south of KLRU and
KELP drifting northeast. As these heavier bands move into the
area, SN will be possible with dropping CIGS and VIS. Based on
latest radar trends and observational data, expecting KLRU and
KELP to be impacted with the heaviest precip and therefore the
best chances to dip below MVFR. However, expecting CIGS in the
MVFR category for all terminals through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much colder air moving into the region for the next couple of days
as an Arctic cold front pushes south and west across the Borderland.
Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees cooler for Tuesday. Rain,
snow, freezing rain and sleet are possible through Tuesday morning
before changing over to all snow. Significant accumulations of snow
are possible in the mountains and Sierra County. The system will
start to exit the area midweek and temperatures will rebound to near
normal by the weekend with a persistent easterly wind.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 35  28  52  34 /  70  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           28  19  50  31 /  60  20   0   0
Las Cruces              32  26  49  30 /  60  20   0   0
Alamogordo              35  23  46  27 /  80  50  20   0
Cloudcroft              23  14  33  22 /  90  60  10   0
Truth or Consequences   32  24  47  28 /  80  50   0   0
Silver City             34  20  48  29 /  60  50   0   0
Deming                  38  24  54  28 /  50  20   0   0
Lordsburg               38  24  55  31 /  40  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  30  52  37 /  70  20   0   0
Dell City               31  24  47  30 /  70  50   0   0
Fort Hancock            36  26  56  37 /  50  20   0   0
Loma Linda              28  23  44  33 /  80  20   0   0
Fabens                  35  25  52  34 /  70  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            33  24  51  31 /  60  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          35  25  47  31 /  70  30   0   0
Jornada Range           34  21  46  24 /  70  40   0   0
Hatch                   34  21  48  27 /  60  40   0   0
Columbus                36  26  55  30 /  50  10   0   0
Orogrande               34  28  46  31 /  80  50   0   0
Mayhill                 22  12  42  22 /  90  70  10   0
Mescalero               26  19  39  22 /  90  60  10   0
Timberon                27  15  38  21 /  90  70  10   0
Winston                 28  16  45  22 /  70  50   0   0
Hillsboro               30  18  48  26 /  70  50   0   0
Spaceport               33  20  45  25 /  70  50   0   0
Lake Roberts            33   9  49  21 /  70  50   0   0
Hurley                  34  19  50  26 /  50  40   0   0
Cliff                   41  22  55  22 /  80  40   0   0
Mule Creek              37  17  51  21 /  70  40   0   0
Faywood                 33  20  50  28 /  50  40   0   0
Animas                  39  24  59  33 /  30  10   0   0
Hachita                 37  22  56  29 /  40  10   0   0
Antelope Wells          38  24  60  33 /  30   0   0   0
Cloverdale              42  24  56  36 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ401-403-
     407-410>413-417.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ402-408-409-
     414>416.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ404>406.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

29-Crespo/17-Hefner


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