Area Forecast Discussion
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872
FXUS64 KEPZ 222049
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
149 PM MST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect highs mainly in the 50s over the lowlands for much of the
week with no precipitation besides a few lingering showers over
the Sacramento Mountains early this evening. A weak cold front
will move through and drop temperatures a few degrees Saturday.
Highs will rebound again through Monday before an even stronger
front moves through Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models in good agreement through period with dry north to
northwest flow continuing. Expect temperatures to mainly be near
to slightly below normal through the weekend. Light winds tonight
along with clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall into the
20s for the lowlands with teens in the mountains. Temperatures
will then start a gradual warmup through Friday getting to near
normal. Winds will not be much of a factor during this time.

An upper disturbance will move through area Friday night into
Saturday. This will shift the winds around to the north and
possibly drop high temperatures just a few degrees. MEX guidance
only showing a degree drop betwen Fri to Sat, but with north winds
and a little more cooling in ensemble mean than operational went
with a slight bit more cooling, especially east.

Temperatures warm up for Monday ahead of next cold front with
highs into the 60s. Strong back door cold front will move through
Monday night into Tuesday. GFS is warmest of the models behind
front with EC about 2C to 4C degrees cooler along with the
GFS-FV3. For now went a few degrees below guidance, but could
easily be much colder with highs in the 30s lowlands and colder in
the mountains. Kept in slight chance for some light snow in the
mountains behind front as well. For now, doesn`t look like there
is a moisture tap to get much precipitation onto the lowlands.
Expect strong east winds behind this front as well, especially
western mountain slopes, something we haven`t had much of this
winter so far.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Skies FEW-SCT060
SCT-BKN200. Winds 300-330 at 10-15KT decreasing tonight to 350-020
at 05-10KT by 02Z. A few 1-3SM -SHSN BKN010-020 possible in the
Sacramento Mountains this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler today than we were yesterday, with 24-hr trends around
20 degrees below normal. We`ll likely see some snow flurries over
the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon as the cold front passes,
but no major accumulations are expected. We will remain dry
elsewhere. We`ll see freezing temperatures areawide tonight behind
the cold front, with low in the teens for mountains. Breezy north
winds today with afternoon ventilation rates in the good category.
Min RH improves slightly this week to around 20%, primarily due to
the decrease in temperatures.

Dry weather with seasonal temperatures the rest of the week with the
occasional weak frontal passage. Expect gusty conditions Wednesday
night into Thursday, especially over the east slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains. A few breezy days next weekend but no major
winds expected over the next few days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 27  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           25  50  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              26  53  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              25  50  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              13  37  22  37 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   24  52  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             25  49  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  21  54  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               24  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      27  53  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               21  54  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            24  54  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              23  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  23  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            23  53  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          25  52  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           17  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   23  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                24  54  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               22  52  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 20  48  26  46 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               17  45  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                17  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 18  49  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               22  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               21  53  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            15  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  21  50  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   19  51  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              19  51  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 21  51  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  24  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 21  53  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          21  52  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              23  52  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/30



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