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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200936
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
336 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and windy conditions will occur by this afternoon as
southwest flow increases over the area. Temperatures near 90 will
be possible along the border region. Sunday will also be breezy to
windy with slightly cooler temperatures. A large storm system and
a cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm dry conditions will return
late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure that was centered over the region
yesterday, will shift to the east in response to an approaching
upper level trough today. The trough will pass north of the local
area with no precipitation expected. West to southwest winds will
increase into the windy category by the afternoon as stronger
winds aloft mix down to the surface and the surface pressure
gradient tightens across the state. Wind speeds will be in the 20
to 30 mph range by the afternoon with the strongest winds expected
west of the Rio Grande and along the east slopes of area
mountains. Some patchy blowing dust will be possible along the
interstate 10 corridor west of Las Cruces, but the dust should not
be widespread. The increased southwest flow will also result in
warm temperatures with upper 80s to lower 90s possible for the
desert lowlands this afternoon.
Winds will diminish overnight but will increase again on Sunday as
a second weak trough passes north of the area. Wind speeds will
be slightly weaker but will still be in the breezy to near windy
category Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also not be quite as
warm with lower to middle 80s expected for the lowlands.
On Monday, a third trough will deepen into a closed low pressure
system over Arizona. It will begin to drift toward New Mexico by
late Monday afternoon. In addition, a strong backdoor cold front
from the plains will push westward into the region. These two
weather features will arrive over the state at about the same time
on early Tuesday. This will lead to a more unstable and somewhat
more moist atmospheric conditions that could lead to the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Tuesday. At this time, moisture availability will still be pretty
limited which will keep rain amounts spotty and light. Steep
atmospheric lapse rates along with frontal boundary dynamics
should result in some thunderstorm development that could lead to
small hail and strong gusty thunderstorm outflow winds for
Tuesday.
Wednesday will see the low pressure system shifting to the east
during the day. Showers and and thunderstorms will still be
possible but the focus will shift more to the east as the day
progresses. Thursday and Friday will be dry as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will warm back up
above normal both days.
The weather outlook for next weekend is a bit more uncertain as
long range models suggest a low pressure system will develop just
west of the area that could lead to more showers and thunderstorms
for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 20/12Z-21/12Z...
Generally VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the period. P6SM
SKC-SCT150-200 through much of the period. Winds will shift
around to the southwest and increase to 15-25G35KTS by 20Z with
strongest winds west of Rio Grande and along with patchy 3-5SM
BLDU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will move east of the area, resulting in increasing
southwest flow ahead of an approaching trough. Southwest winds
will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph in the mid
to late afternoon. Upgraded Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning as minimum relative humidities also fall into the 6 to 12
percent range. Similar conditions for Sunday, except slightly less
wind and slightly higher relative humidities. For now will hold
off on any highlights for Sunday. Slightly cooler temperatures for
early next week with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday, but significant wetting rains are not
expected. Above normal temps and dry conditions return by the end
of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 91 61 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 87 56 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 87 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 89 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 65 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 86 53 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 78 49 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 87 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 85 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 90 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 92 56 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 95 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 85 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 93 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 89 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 88 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 87 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 88 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 89 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 88 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 77 47 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 75 46 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 74 44 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 79 41 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 84 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 86 49 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 79 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 81 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 85 41 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 80 47 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 81 49 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 87 49 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 86 47 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 81 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ110>113.
TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ055.
&&
$$
04 Lundeen
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- Page last modified: Apr 3rd, 2019 01:33 UTC