Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 060540
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1140 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
A few lingering very light showers remain across the area, but TS
activity has died off for several hrs. Another round of TSRA
tomorrow afternoon, beginning ~18Z area mtns and around/after
20-21Z lowlands. Confidence too low to introduce VCTS/PROB30 at
terminals, especially this far out, but there is a slight chance
at all terminals during the afternoon/evening (21-03Z). Gusty
outflows will be possible during the afternoon from any storms.
Overall, VFR conditions will continue.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
For the next seven days we will see scattered mountain
thunderstorms and few isolated lowland thunderstorms. Outside of
the mountains, the chances of seeing rain on any one day will be
low. Each day our skies will start off mostly clear, but by the
afternoon and evening we will see partly cloudy skies. Our high
temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above average through the
start of next week, which will mean, many lowland locations will
flirt with the century mark each day through at least Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM... Tonight through Thursday...
GOES visible satellite imagery showed an outflow boundary this
morning that went through the Sacramento Mountains, originating from
some remnant overnight activity from roughly Dunken to Lovington,
NM. This flipped winds NE, and added some additional surface
moisture that CAM models hadn`t resolved, and has sparked some
isolated, terrain-based storms over the Sacramento Mountains with
more intense rain rates than anticipated. GOES TPW values are
roughly about 1.0 to 1.1 inches throughout the area, which is
around/slightly higher than what models were indicating. An upper-
level ridge moving east has allowed moisture to flow into the region
from the southwest to the northeast, creating an weak axis of
instability across the region. This will help sustain terrain-based
storms this afternoon. Storms this evening in the lowlands will
continue to be dependent on outflow development/collisions, but
areas west of the Rio Grande River are favored for storm development
thanks to the upper level pattern. The additional cloud cover
overnight will help keep low temperatures 5-10 degrees above
seasonal average.

On Thursday, the subtropical ridge will be centered over southwest
Texas, allowing the moisture flow to continue over the region,
aiding especially the NM bootheel where deeper moisture will be in
place.  However, thanks to the upper high`s recycled moisture, the
overall moisture levels won`t change much from the day before, with
1.0 to 1.10 inches of PW expected by Thursday afternoon. In
addition, instability looks similar to Wednesday--modest, and long-
range CAMs show terrain-based storms, with potential evening
outflows into the Rio Grande Valley that *may* aid in storm
development. A caveat will be a thermal low setting up tomorrow in
our southeast zones, of which the placement is handled differently
depending on the model. Wherever this sets up, this will help shift
wind to the southeast, affecting surface moisture. As for
temperatures, expect continued above seasonal average highs, with
upper 90s/100s throughout the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
After Thursday, upper level high pressure will continue to be the
name of the game. Previous model runs had the upper level ridge
drifting to our east and allowing some monsoon moisture to move up
out of Mexico. But the current runs of the models start to drift
the ridge to our east, but then just as quickly start to drift the
upper level, back to the west and eventually right back over
southern New Mexico. So the ridge looks to continue to limit our
afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. Best chances for rain
each day will be in area mountains with a few thunderstorms
creeping into the lowlands each day. This pattern will continue
each day through at least weekend, as the heat combines with some
moisture trapped under the ridge to give us some rain in the
mountains and a slight chance for storms in the lowlands. Our
temperatures each day will run 5 to 10 degrees above average so
most lowland locations will flirt with the triple digit mark each
day through at least Tuesday of next week. For the middle of next
week, the tropics off the western coast of Mexico will begin to
get active, but with the upper level ridge sitting firmly in
control of our weather, that will push any and all tropical
moisture off into the Pacific. Looking beyond the forecast period,
the upper level high pressure shows no signs of moving off, so
our hot and mostly dry weather will continue through at least the
end of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low fire weather concerns continue as a subtropical ridge continues
to slowly shift east of the area, bringing in moisture. The ridge
will essentially remain in place through the weekend. The additional
(but modest for monsoon season) moisture flows from southwestern New
Mexico into the Sacramento Mountains.  This will lead to an uptick
in thunderstorm activity and wetting rainfall through Saturday,
preferring the higher terrain and southwestern New Mexico. For the
start of next week, the upper level ridge will re-center itself back
over New Mexico, which again will limit, but not eliminate our rain
chances. Vent rates poor to good through the weekend, with min RH
above 15 percent in the lowlands, and above 20 percent in the
mountains. Winds will remain light, except around storms.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca          100  68  95  68 /  10  20  10  20
Las Cruces              98  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo              97  71  98  72 /  20  20  20  10
Cloudcroft              75  53  75  54 /  50  30  40  20
Truth or Consequences   97  70  94  70 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             88  64  87  64 /  20  20  20  10
Deming                  99  68  96  68 /  20  20  20  20
Lordsburg               95  68  93  68 /  20  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro     101  76 100  77 /  10  10  10  20
Dell City              103  70 100  71 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Hancock           103  74 101  74 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda              96  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                 102  76  99  75 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa           100  72  98  73 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          99  74  97  75 /  10  10  20  20
Jornada Range           98  71  96  71 /  10  20  20  20
Hatch                   99  70  96  70 /  10  20  20  20
Columbus               100  72  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
Orogrande               99  71  98  72 /  10  10  20  20
Mayhill                 84  60  85  60 /  50  30  40  20
Mescalero               83  58  84  59 /  40  30  40  20
Timberon                85  57  83  57 /  30  20  30  20
Winston                 88  57  85  57 /  30  30  30  10
Hillsboro               94  66  94  65 /  30  10  20  20
Spaceport               98  68  95  69 /  10  20  20  10
Lake Roberts            85  58  86  58 /  30  10  30  10
Hurley                  91  63  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
Cliff                   92  61  94  62 /  20  20  20  10
Mule Creek              91  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  10
Faywood                 91  66  91  65 /  20  20  20  20
Animas                  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  30  20
Hachita                 97  66  93  66 /  20  30  20  20
Antelope Wells          95  67  92  67 /  30  40  40  30
Cloverdale              91  65  88  64 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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