Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231611

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
911 AM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and a gradual daytime warming trend will
develop through the rest of this week and into the weekend. A
trough of low pressure will approach the West Coast on Sunday with
increasing southwest breezes over Arizona. A chance for showers
will develop over the state on Monday.


.UPDATE...A inversion has formed over Glenn Canyon/Lake Powell
with low clouds have persisting under this inversion with low
ceilings reported at the Page Airport. Have updated forecast for
sky cover in this area for this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /321 AM MST/...Expect dry conditions with
afternoon temperatures several degrees above seasonal average
through Sunday. There will be high clouds at times, especially
Friday as a weak disturbance passes north of the state. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, though very little is being
detected by satellite as of 3 AM - just a small area near the
White Mtns and also in the Lake Powell area near Page.

By Sunday afternoon - an approaching weak trough will bring
increased southwest winds. Sunday night through Monday - the
trough is forecast to move quickly through the state. There will
be a chance of showers with the system but amounts appear light at
this time. Snow levels are forecast to be in the 5000-6000 ft
range but again current projections are for very light amounts.

Tuesday through Wednesday - northwesterly flow with seasonable
temperatures. Another weak disturbance possible Wednesday with low
shower chances.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Areas of stratus and fog causing
IFR conditions to persist around Page through 20z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally
north to northeast 5 to 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather with light northerly winds and
warming temperatures will continue through the end of the week.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm weather will continue over
the weekend. Winds shift to the southwest Sunday afternoon ahead of
an approaching weather system. Expect a low chance for showers by
late Sunday night, followed by better chances on Monday when the
system passes through Arizona.






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