Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Fri Apr 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Less wind and cooler temperatures are forecast through
the weekend with a chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. Warmer
and drier weather will return early next week, with unsettled
conditions possible again late next week.


.UPDATE...This morning`s low temperatures were several degrees
below seasonal averages across the region, with some upper teens
and low 20s for the usual colder spots in the high country and
even a light freeze for parts of the Prescott area. Highs later today
look similar to Thursday`s values. Current forecasts are in good
shape with no morning updates needed. Will take a look at latest
model guidance, and may add some low shower chances over the far
northern sections of Arizona (Kaibab Plateau/Page/Kayenta) for
this evening with the afternoon forecast package.


.PREV DISCUSSION /314 AM MST/...An upper level low remains
situated over the Rocky Mountains region early this morning. The
main trough will continue to move east today while a secondary
shortwave rotates around the backside of the trough through Nevada
and Utah today. This shortwave will deepen the trough as it moves
southward over Arizona this weekend. The air mass associated with
the trough should usher in enough moisture to generate scattered
shower activity both Saturday and Sunday. Models have been
consistent with this over the past couple of days. Shower
activity will favor areas from Flagstaff north and west on
Saturday, and then areas south and east of Flagstaff on Sunday
(particularly the White Mountains area). There will be enough
afternoon instability for a few isolated thunderstorms as well.
Light precipitation amounts of a few hundredths of an inch up to
about 0.25 inches are expected. The trough passage will result in
cooler temperatures over the weekend, along with periods of
breezy north to northeast winds.

The shortwave is forecast to phase with a larger scale trough and
move eastward on Monday ushering in a period of warmer and drier
weather through Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds return by
Wednesday and Thursday in advance of another trough set to move
through the region late next week. There will be a low chance for
showers during this period accompanying the trough passage.

High pressure looks likely by Friday of next week leading into
next weekend, likely resulting in dry and warmer weather.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the duration of the TAF period. West/northwest winds pickup this
afternoon around 10-15 kts, with localized gusts up to 20 kts in the
higher terrain. After 03Z, winds become northerly and lighten to
around 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Much lighter winds expected for Friday and
Saturday. Ventilation rates good to excellent each afternoon. On
Saturday, a slight chance of showers is possible along the high
terrain with isolated thunderstorm chances.

Sunday through Tuesday... A better chance of showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Sunday. Dry and warm conditions return
early next week.






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