Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
247 PM MST Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying trend into early next week, with only
isolated thunderstorms expected on today and Monday across
northern Arizona. Moisture will increase again starting Tuesday as
high pressure moves to a favorable position over New Mexico,
promising a return to active monsoon conditions.


Models continue to show the ridge of high pressure currently
centered over California, beginning to slowly move back towards
the Four Corners region over the next 24 hours. This will allow
for isolated convection, as seen over western Yavapai county to
continue into the evening hours.

Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest is currently impacting
parts of the Navajo Nation. This smoke is expected to decrease as
the plume moves eastward into New Mexico due to the shifting
center of the high pressure ridge.

Moisture is expected to advect back into Arizona beginning on
Monday, but is not anticipated to impact storm development in
Northern Arizona until Tuesday. Dry and stable conditions are
expected to persist through the day Monday, with an isolated
showers or two possible during peak heating.

Tuesday onward as moisture moves into the region from the Gulf of
California expect an increase in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the week, limiting high


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR condtions across
northern Arizona for the next 24 hrs. Winds become N this afternoon
at 10-20 kts gusting 20-25 kts in Apache and northern Navajo
Counties, N to NW at 5-10 kts gusting 10-20 kts
elsewhere....becoming light after 02Z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms in SW Yavapai County 20-02Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions with breezy north to
northwest winds Sunday. Slight chance for thunderstorms in the
afternoon in southwestern Yavapai County. Monday will see breezy
south to southwest winds, and a chance for afternoon and evening
convection over the White mountains and a slight chance along the
Mogollon Rim and over the higher terrain of Coconino and Yavapai

.Tuesday through Thursday...The southerly monsoonal flow Tuesday
will bring a return of moisture and wide spread isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona. Moisture
will continue to increase across the district Wednesday and Thursday
with an increase in convective activity mostly from the Whites to
Flagstaff and north to the Kaibab Plateau, and to the south and west
of that line.






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