Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 181109
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
609 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

An area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues
to be watched for possible tropical cyclone development over the
next 24 to 48 hours. Models have been shifting further east with the
movement of this low tonight into Saturday. Most guidance now moves
it into the northern Florida panhandle or the Big Bend area of Florida
as a possible tropical storm on Saturday. Further north over our area,
high cloudiness should increase today with temperatures starting out
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Though high cloudiness will increase throughout the day, guidance does
show fairly warm 925 mb temperatures that most of the area should be
able to mix up to. This and the initial thinner nature of high cloud
cover early this morning should allow highs to climb into the upper
60s to around 75 degrees by the afternoon.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Thicker and lower cloud cover should move into the area late tonight
into Saturday. Could see some isolated to scattered showers push
northeast into the area, as a potential tropical storm pushes
northeast into Florida and Georgia. There is quite a bit of uncertainty
with precipitation chances over our area. Some models confine most
of the precipitation to extreme eastern areas of northern Alabama,
while some actually produce hardly any precipitation at all. At this
time, including lower pops due to this uncertainty and model trends,
primarily Saturday morning and into the early evening hours. Locations
west of the I-65 corridor may not see much rainfall at all. Warmer
temperatures despite the thicker and lower cloud cover and possible
showers are expected with strong warm air advection on Saturday around
the tropical system to our southeast. Easterly winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts around 25 mph also look possible during the day on
Saturday.

Most guidance moves this system quickly northeast into the South
Carolina area by midnight on Saturday with a weak area of high
pressure building into the Tennessee Valley behind it. This should
end rainfall chances over the area by Sunday around 7 AM or sooner.
Lows look to be between 50 and 55 degrees.

During the day on Sunday, south flow sets up again, as the high quickly
pushes east into the Appalachians. This is mainly ahead of a strong
cold front that develops over the Upper Midwest stretching southward
into Missouri and northeastern Texas by Sunday afternoon. This should
begin advecting increasing moisture and warmer temperatures into the
area from the Gulf. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees look
fairly certain. This could be a bit low, but cloud cover may keep
highs from climbing too much higher.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Sunday night into Monday morning, most guidance has this front approaching
NW Alabama. As it moves east across northern Alabama, most guidance
continues to show enough decent instability and strong shear along
and ahead of the front. This could produce a few strong to severe
thunderstorms as it moves east through northern Alabama on Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts
around 25 mph can be expected with this system outside of
thunderstorms.

Drier and quieter weather returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs should be cooler in the mid to upper 60s again with lows in the
upper 30s to 40s both nights. Tuesday looks to be the coolest night,
with some patchy frost not out of the question. Another frontal
boundary approaches the area by the end of next week. A return to
warmer than normal temperatures are expected as a result and
additional rainfall may return to the area as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will
become easterly after 15Z with increasing high cloudiness. For now
left out lower cigs and -shra chances due to the uncertainty of
precipitation chances tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...KTW


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