Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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936 FXUS64 KHUN 141507 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1007 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1007 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Another active day of weather is forecast across the Tennessee Valley, primarily this afternoon into the early evening hours, with high (70-90%) chances for showers/storms ahead of an approaching shortwave and it`s associated cold front. Hi-res guidance and satellite trends continue to indicate the morning cloud cover will begin to dissipate, allowing sun to break through and heat a conditionally unstable air mass. Per model soundings the boundary could destabilize with SBCAPE values somewhere in the 1000-1500 J/kg range by mid/late afternoon. By 17z showers and storms should be quickly developing along and ahead of a cold front that will be advancing eastward across western Tennessee and northern Mississippi -- moving into NW Alabama by 18-19z and slowly across the Tennessee Valley between 19z-01z. The wind shear will be sufficient enough for some organized line segments and even a supercell or two capable of all modes of severe weather, especially during the 20-00z window. our highest confidence is with damaging straight-line winds and large hail (perhaps up to 1"-1.5" diameter) with the strongest storms, but a low chance for a tornado or two will also exist, especially east of the I-65 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A brief dry period is expected as we go into the night, as a cold front south of the parent low moves east of the region. Low temperatures tonight should cool into the lower 60s. While the front heads further to the east, the surface low moving at a slower pace over the TN/KY border will return more lower level moisture to the region. Daytime heating on Wed will produce destabilization and another chance of showers and thunderstorms. These storms should be of "general" strength with a usual risk of strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. This activity should end by Wed evening as the parent low finally exits further to the east, and even drier air filters in from the west and northwest. Highs on Wed should range in the mid/upper 70s, and lows that night around 60. Thursday looks to be a dry day with clouds decreasing in the late morning and afternoon. This should help high temperatures warm into the low/mid 80s. However, another system will be nearing the area, and bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Thu night. Lows that night should be milder, in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%) of showers as well as the potential for storms. As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall, some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer with better model agreement. Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible. As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid 60s through Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An area of convection was in progress over northern MS into adjacent TN moving to the NE. Am expecting this activity to remain west of the KMSL terminal into the late morning. The models were showing a redevelopment of more showers and thunderstorms in the early afternoon, with it moving eastward over the area into the early evening. Timing of this activity`s east movement has slowed some, thus it may continue more into the evening. Some of the storms becoming strong could produce gusty winds, which was noted in the KHSV. Have shower activity diminishing from west to east this evening, as a frontal boundary pushes east of the area. SSE winds this morning should gradually veer to the SSW in the early evening, generally remaining under 10kt. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...RSB