777
FXUS64 KHUN 100833
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
333 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 - Fog expected to develop overnight into the early morning hours
   with some locations becoming locally dense.

 - Daily low to medium chances of thunderstorms are expected
   through Wednesday. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
   heavy downpours, and frequent lightning but there is potential
   for isolated severe downbursts and hail as well. These chances
   become low chances towards the end of the week.

 - High heat index and HeatRisk values may necessitate heat
   products by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Cloud cover is slowly clearing west to east this morning.
Combined with winds that are nearly calm and dew point depressions
only 0-2 degrees, expecting fog formation this morning. Low
confidence on just how much visibility could drop but some dense
fog cannot be ruled out later this morning. Please drive slow and
with your low-beam headlights on for your commute to school and
work. Also, if you encounter any lingering flooding from yesterday,
turn around, don`t drown! Fog will improve with sunrise.

A subtropical ridge lingering over FL will expand westward into
the eastern Gulf today. Disturbances riding up the ridge along
with a weak trough axis hanging on for one more day could spark
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Low to medium chances
(30-50%) of storms that could produce lightning, heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding concerns (PWATS are just
under 2") and gusty winds. Highest coverage of storms looks to be
in our southeastern counties. In response, temps will also warm
with highs reaching the lower 90s and heat index values up to 105
degrees. Not enough coverage to warrant a heat product at this
time, but there`s better chance of that later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The upper ridge only slightly strengthens over northern Alabama
on Tuesday. Not much change in the forecast on Tuesday, so a low
chance 20-40 percent of showers and thunderstorms will continue.
Flash flooding will continue to remain possible with high PWATS
remaining in place, but potential will not be as high as over the
past weekend. Highs should be a tad warmer with a lower coverage
of precipitation expected again, climbing into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Heat index values will get close to advisory level
again, but values of 105 degrees are not expected to be widespread
enough to warrant any products at this time.

The upper ridge continues to build further north into the area on
Wednesday. This should raise high temperatures a bit higher into
the 90 to 95 degree range west of the I-65 corridor. NBM gives up
medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms. This seems a
bit high based on the average of most other model guidance, so
this may need to be revised down in future forecast updates.
Depending on the actual coverage flash flooding may remain a
threat. A Heat Advisory may be needed by Wednesday for a good
portion of northern Alabama.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The ridge continues to build over the southeast Wednesday night
into Friday. This should really lower shower/storm chances to
between 10 and 30 percent in the afternoon. Highs will likely
rise into the mid 90s at least by Friday (maybe Thursday). Based
on forecast 925 mb temperatures, conditions could be hotter,
maybe some upper 90s in a few locations. This will likely amplify
a heat wave that will continue into the weekend. Highs in guidance
look a bit low based on forecast 925 mb temperatures.

On Friday, most models build the center of the upper ridge over
Arkansas and Mississippi. This further strengthens the upper ridge
over the area. This should push highs into the 95 to 100 degree
range. The heat wave will likely peak over the upcoming weekend.
With some 925 mb temperatures forecast, we could climb over the
century mark during that period. Extreme heat products may be
needed over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Clearing has occurred in NW AL thus MVFR VIS reductions have
already been observed at KMSL. Expecting KHSV to follow in the
next hour or so. The question is how low will VIS fall overnight.
Right now, keeping it MVFR, but will monitor for amendments. Low
chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms at KHSV, thus
included a PROB30 for this issuance. Chances are even lower at
KMSL, so will keep TSRA out at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS