Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 251723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

For 18Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 922 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Fog has dissipated over the Paint Rock and Flint River Valleys as
heating/mixing begins this morning. A few decks of low clouds (from
last night`s stratus) and debris cirrus from earlier convection
remain, but expect this to gradually thin out throughout the day.
Other than some scattered Cu fields, think a mostly to partly sunny
(and fairly benign) weather day will be in the cards. Thanks to a
drier, westerly flow aloft, we`ll get cut-off from the deeper
moisture to the south. Also, with no lifting mechanism, expect it to
be a dry day for us and have cautiously removed isolated thunder from
the forecast this afternoon. That`s not to say that a rogue
shower/storm could not form, but think that will be much more the
exception than the rule today (thanks to a capping inversion aloft).
All in all, a warm/seasonable, but pleasant late June day, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Any thunderstorm activity should dissipate around sunset. Lows
should remain rather muggy still tonight, as guidance forecasts the
front to just move into northern Alabama late tonight.On Wednesday,
most guidance stalls the front somewhere between central and northern
Alabama. As additional disturbances move east along it, an increase
in shower and thunderstorm coverage looks feasible. Bulk shear
luckily remains extremely weak. So not looking for an organized round
of stronger thunderstorm activity. Gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy downpours will be possible though. Mostly cloudy conditions
in the afternoon and more scattered thunderstorm activity should
keep highs a bit cooler in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This overall pattern changes little Wednesday night into Friday, but
the weakening boundary (that was the front) waffles around over the
Southeast and Tennessee Valley area. The end result is diurnally
driven convection that maximizes its scattered coverage in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Expect lows to remain in the mid
to upper 60s or a tad higher. Highs look to be warmer though, as
upper level ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. Could see some 92
to 95 degree temperatures during this period, depending on how much
shower and thunderstorm activity we actually realize.

Friday night into the weekend, it looks as though a slightly
stronger backdoor front rotates around the eastern side of the ridge
aloft and brings higher shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.
Not a washout by any means, but could see more widespread rainfall
during this period. There may be a bit more bulk shear with that
front, so a stronger storms may be possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period, with
just some scattered 4 kft Cu, passing high clouds, and light winds.




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