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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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416 FXUS64 KHUN 270228 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 928 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The area remains situated between a mid-level trough to the northwest over the AR/OK border and ridge centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moist, southwesterly flow is the result across the TN Valley which will only increase going into the weekend as trough begins to lift northward late tonight. Current radar shows a large area of showers progressing northward from central MS and AL and will continue to trek northward into our area over the next few hours. No lightning is present at this time in this activity and there is no expectation for it to develop into the overnight hours as inhibition increases. Have adjusted the precip chances to reflect this thinking tonight with no other major changes to the forecast expected in the near term. Light winds and low temps in the upper 60s to low 70s can be expected with overcast skies. Patchy fog remains a possibility into tomorrow morning especially in areas that receive rainfall overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 On Saturday, the upr low will move northward, with most of the favorable associated dynamics moving away from the area. Nevertheless, a convergence axis on the SE flank of the upr low will offer some forcing for ascent and convection especially in SW portions of the area. Thus, higher POPs (~40-60%) can be found on Saturday in those areas, with values gradually trailing off to 20-30 POPs in the northeast. On Sunday, the upr low will become absorbed into the Polar Westerlies and begin an eastward movement, dragging a weak front in tow. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the front, with PW values largely expected around 2" and wet-bulb freezing heights climbing to ~14 kft in the deep moist/warm advection regime. This will create conditions favorable for efficient warm rain processed and the potential for locally heavy rainfall capable of producing some instances of flash flooding. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the 12Z Sun to 12Z Monday period as a result. Flash flooding would be most prone to occur in urban locations and also areas with poor drainage. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The current wet pattern will continue for the start of the long term forecast. LREF model guidance indicates the continually presence of tropical moisture through at least Tuesday. This is seen in PWATs remaining near 2" supporting additional rounds of afternoon rain and storms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Rain and storm chances greatly fall off for the remainder of the long term as surface high pressure is established in the Gulf of Mexico. The change to high pressure will suppress rain chances to below 40% for the remainder of the period while simultaneously ushering in mid 70 dew points from the SSW flow. The drier pattern will allow temps to steadily rise though the long term forecast to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. This, coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s will reintroduce heat indices nearing or potentially exceeding heat advisory criteria on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast trends will be monitored as we enter the next work week to assess the need for any heat products. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Lingering shower activity will dissipate early in the period and is not expected to impact the terminals this evening. Patchy fog and another round of shower activity will be possible after 27/05z but confidence remains low in any impacts to the terminal so have left out of the current TAF package for now but will amend if necessary as confidence increases. Shower activity could continue into the late morning/afternoon on Saturday with increasing chances of embedded TSRA after 27/18z. These chances remain higher to the south across central Alabama and have also not been included in current package. BKN- OVC mid clouds at 10k-18k feet will prevail throughout the period with FEW-SCT low clouds between 4k-6k feet increasing after 27/12z. Winds will remain light at 8 knots or less throughout the period, favoring the south southeast on Saturday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KG SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...KG