Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 161437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1035 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

The Near Term and AVIATION sections have been updated below.


Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

A frontal zone will move through the area later today, with
scattered thunderstorms possible, particularly this afternoon into
early evening. High pressure in the wake of the front will provide
a less humid and pleasant period mid week, before a large low
pressure system moves into the Great Lakes, returning daily
thunderstorm chances to the area late week into the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Another warm and humid day expected across central Indiana ahead of
an approaching cold frontal zone. A few showers are occurring across
western and northern counties. Models continue to depict these
dropping off for a few hours and then firing back up this afternoon.
Thus expect more coverage of convective activity this afternoon into
early evening. Will limit pops to less than likely owing to coverage
uncertainties, but have changed to coverage wording given confidence
on occurrence just not widespread coverage.

Temps should be in the mid to upper 80s, which will combine with
humid airmass to push peak heat index values well into the 90s in
some spots today.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

After a lingering chance this evening as the front passes, the
remainder of the short term will be dry as high pressure dominates
the area. Dewpoints will fall significantly, and the mid week
period will be quite pleasant weather wise, with highs near to
slightly below normal and relatively low humidity.

Consensus numbers were in the ballpark and generally acceptable.


.LONG TERM (Thursday Through Sunday)...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper level low will dominate the long term, bringing chances for
rain each day during the period. At the surface, a cold front will
move through the area in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

Models are similar early in the period, then begin to vary more with
the placement of the upper system. This leads to a lower confidence
forecast for the weekend.

Although confidence is high that scattered convection will move in
with the upper and surface systems, feel that confidence isn`t high
enough to go higher than chance PoPs any one period. Thus removed
any likely PoPs that the initialization tried to put in.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 161500Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Low clouds continue to impact all the sites at 1430Z, with low MVFR
to IFR at all the sites. Looking at satellite loop expect to see
ceilings rising over the next couple of hours and possibly
scattering thereafter, with VFR possible at the sites starting
around 18z.

Isolated convection will continue around this morning, but more
coverage is expected this afternoon with a cold front. Will use VCTS
as needed.





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