Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
955 FXUS62 KKEY 161810 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 210 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to gentle northeast to east breezes will prevail over the next few days, and will tend to peak overnight before lulling during the day. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with occasional CIGs observed near FL040, especially after 17/04. Easterly surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will back to the northeast and decrease to near 10 knots after sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026For today, a broad surface high centered near Bermuda, remains stretched out towards the west-southwest across Florida and the Gulf Basin. This feature will slowly begin sliding east in response to a potent shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic and New England States. This will weaken the pressure gradient and allow for a thermal trough to develop across the Mainland during the afternoons over the next several days. This will result in winds, especially across the areas immediately downwind of the Mainland, to lull during the morning and afternoon, then peak in the evening and early overnight. We continue to monitor a backdoor front that is slated to push through sometime on Sunday. This front is not expected to bring an air mass change with it. However, a ribbon of enhanced moisture will filter in behind this feature. This moisture then looks to remain trapped across the Keys as a strong high quickly slides in and settles across the Carolinas through Tuesday. This will result in a sharp uptick in winds Monday night with windy conditions returning and lasting through at least Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through the next several forecast periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. A back door front will slide through sometime Sunday with a strong high pressure quickly filling in the wake. This will allow for breezes to freshen with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes possible early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through the next several forecast periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. A back door front will slide through sometime Sunday with a strong high pressure quickly filling in the wake. This will allow for breezes to freshen with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes possible early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 83 74 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 74 82 75 83 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest