Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 260228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1028 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

A cold front will arrive from the north late Tuesday afternoon. No
rain is expected with the front. Increasing northwest breezes will
follow the front on Tue night and will bring a cooler and much
drier air mass by Wed morning.

The portion of the front over the far northern Bahamas will
experience low pressure development on Wednesday. Meanwhile,
strong surface high pressure will nose down the east side of the
Appalachians, tightening the pressure gradient to the north and
northwest of the developing low. By Wednesday night, this will
bring windy and cooler weather all the way south to the Keys.
During the strongest winds on Wed evening, land-based northerly
wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible.

Overnight lows will dip into the 60s for many locations on Tue
night, Wed night and Thu night.


Slight rain chances return around Friday or Friday night for much
of the island chain as low level winds turn to the east and
moisten. Over the weekend, Precipitable Water values will run
around 1", which is enough to get little more than isolated weak
showers. Prevailing weather will be dry.


A cold front will drop south through the Keys on Tuesday
afternoon and will be followed by freshening northwest to north
breezes on Tue evening. Along the portion of the front over the
far north Bahamas, low pressure development will occur over the
far northern Bahamas on Wed and Wed night. Here on the back side
of this developing low center, a period of strong north to
northeast breezes are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected for all coastal waters.
Breezes will diminish and turn to the east Thursday night through
Friday night.


VFR conditions are currently forecast in the TAFs at EYW and MTH
for the next 24 hours. Through early Tuesday afternoon, confidence
in this outcome is high. Then a decaying cold front will arrive
from the north around 21z-22z Tue afternoon. The NAM shows
shallow moisture filling in behind the front. Plus, it`s common
to get strato-cumulus behind cold fronts. Have reflected this
possibility in the TAFS with the introduction of SCT012 in the EYW
TAF following the front-related increase in northwest wind.




Data Collection......DR

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