724
FXUS62 KKEY 160733
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A large, expansive surface high stretches across the central North
Atlantic southwestward across Florida and the Gulf. This is
maintaining east to southeast winds across the Florida Keys. At
the same time, an upper level ridge is moving in from the west.
The combination of which are providing substantial deep dry air
and subsidence. As a result, there are hardly any clouds present
and the KBYX radar is void of any meteorological echoes.
Temperatures are stubbornly holding near 80 degrees this hour with
dew points in the lower 70s.

.FORECAST...

The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly trek
eastward across the Gulf. Meanwhile, the expansive surface high
across the Atlantic will hold fast through the weekend and into
early next week. The combination of these features will keep a
tight lid on the atmosphere and maintain near nil rain chances. It
will also mean that we will see a gradual warming trend with
slightly above normal temperatures. For reference, Key West
International Airport normals are 86 for a high and 76 for a low.
Daytime highs over the next several days will be slowly creeping
into the upper 80s, while overnight lows may struggle to fall
below 80 degrees. Likewise, dew points will be edging upward with
values approaching the mid 70s.

Over the weekend and into early next week, a series of strong
surface lows will trek across the northern tier of the U.S. and
eastern Canada. This will eventually wear on the surface high and
shift it further east. By Tuesday night it will shift just enough
eastward, that winds will begin clocking around to the south and
southwest. As this occurs, moisture will be steadily increasing in
the boundary layer. That being said, A) it will take time to
overcome the numerous days of deep dry air and B) initially the
southerly winds will act against us during the daytime on
Wednesday. Therefore, rain chances will remain near nil through
Wednesday.

Slight rain chances and even the threat for isolated thunderstorms
return Wednesday night. By Thursday, we will have to begin keeping
an eye on the southwesterlies as this will promote cloud lines
with the added potential hazards of waterspouts. For now, keeping
rain chances at slight, but there is room to go up as we get
closer to the event. However, being nearly a week out, felt at
least confident to at least nudge up PoPs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A large, expansive high pressure parked in the
central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the
next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result
in minor peaks and lulls through the next several days along with
near- nil shower chances. The high will begin gradually shifting
eastward by Tuesday, allowing for an increase in moisture and a
threat for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period
with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances influenced by quite
dry air above the near-surface layer. Winds will persist from the
east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was
recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm
low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon
back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  86  79  87  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  87  80  87  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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