


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
724 FXUS62 KKEY 160733 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive surface high stretches across the central North Atlantic southwestward across Florida and the Gulf. This is maintaining east to southeast winds across the Florida Keys. At the same time, an upper level ridge is moving in from the west. The combination of which are providing substantial deep dry air and subsidence. As a result, there are hardly any clouds present and the KBYX radar is void of any meteorological echoes. Temperatures are stubbornly holding near 80 degrees this hour with dew points in the lower 70s. .FORECAST... The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly trek eastward across the Gulf. Meanwhile, the expansive surface high across the Atlantic will hold fast through the weekend and into early next week. The combination of these features will keep a tight lid on the atmosphere and maintain near nil rain chances. It will also mean that we will see a gradual warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures. For reference, Key West International Airport normals are 86 for a high and 76 for a low. Daytime highs over the next several days will be slowly creeping into the upper 80s, while overnight lows may struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Likewise, dew points will be edging upward with values approaching the mid 70s. Over the weekend and into early next week, a series of strong surface lows will trek across the northern tier of the U.S. and eastern Canada. This will eventually wear on the surface high and shift it further east. By Tuesday night it will shift just enough eastward, that winds will begin clocking around to the south and southwest. As this occurs, moisture will be steadily increasing in the boundary layer. That being said, A) it will take time to overcome the numerous days of deep dry air and B) initially the southerly winds will act against us during the daytime on Wednesday. Therefore, rain chances will remain near nil through Wednesday. Slight rain chances and even the threat for isolated thunderstorms return Wednesday night. By Thursday, we will have to begin keeping an eye on the southwesterlies as this will promote cloud lines with the added potential hazards of waterspouts. For now, keeping rain chances at slight, but there is room to go up as we get closer to the event. However, being nearly a week out, felt at least confident to at least nudge up PoPs. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive high pressure parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result in minor peaks and lulls through the next several days along with near- nil shower chances. The high will begin gradually shifting eastward by Tuesday, allowing for an increase in moisture and a threat for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances influenced by quite dry air above the near-surface layer. Winds will persist from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest