Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 210247
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1047 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Mean layer ridging persists across the eastern United States,
which supports the deep northeast to east winds sampled by the
00Z KKEY RAOB. The profile is moist and very unstable, with
minimal inhibition. The mainland observed severe hail this
afternoon, testament to the unstable profile and steep lapse
rates. A mid- upper level feature is sliding west- southwest
along the southern periphery of the ridge, pushing into the
northern Bahamas and South Florida. The afternoon cloud line waxed
and waned all afternoon and failed to produce showers and
thunderstorms during the daylight hours. Just after sunset, the
lingering cloud line fired just north of the Lower Keys. Since
then, convective activity is isolated at best.

Developing easterly winds within the lower troposphere should
induce moisture convergence overnight. We advertise 30% rain
chances which is near the model statistical consensus. Higher than
normal rain chances are advertised through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge axis will extend west-southwest into the southeastern
United States tonight through Tuesday. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will rotate clockwise around Bermuda, lifting northeast
adjacent to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida
Keys through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals.
Vicinity showers are possible through the entire forecast period,
though coverage will likely decrease through the early morning hours
before picking up again by midday. Amendments may be necessary if a
stray shower or storm approaches the terminals. Winds will not vary
much outside of convection, prevailing from the east at 5 to 10
kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature today at Key West International Airport reached
95F, breaking the daily record high temperature of 93F last recorded
on this date in 1987. Temperature records at Key West date back to
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC
Data Collection......DR

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