Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 300100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
900 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023


Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Widely scattered showers were observed in the Straits of Florida,
Hawk Channel, and the nearshore waters of the Florida Keys. Late
this afternoon, a shower that had drifted over Stock Island
intensified into a thunderstorm and remained stationary for
approximately 30 minutes or longer. A new round of showers has
impacted the Middle and Upper Keys, resulting in moderate to heavy
rainfall. The most intense activity was over the western Straits
of Florida and the outer Gulf Waters. These showers and
thunderstorms originated from the Cuban land breeze.

The high resolution models have not accurately predicted the
shower activity in the Upper and Middle Keys, and surrounding
waters. Based on my current analysis, the weak boundaries from
convection firing to the west and east of the Florida Keys will
persist and gradually move toward the island chain. These
boundaries will interact with the limited moisture and instability
in the atmosphere, resulting in scattered showers and potentially
thunderstorms. Also, bouts of moderate to heavy rain in the
Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys could result in localized flooding.


Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the island chain.
Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially
during the times of high tide. A weak pressure gradient will
promote light southeast breezes through the weekend. A weak front
will advance through the Florida Peninsula early next week ahead
of a high pressure system over the southeastern United States. The
extended forecast features freshening northeast breezes, as the
front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys coastal waters.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon
terminals through the overnight hours. However, a few showers
moving over the island chain could cause brief MVFR. There is high
uncertainty in the location and timing of the potential
convection. Surface winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 8




Data Acquisition.....AJP

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