Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 260527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION...Showers and a few storms continue to grow in coverage
across the region. This trend will continue into the early morning
with ceilings lowering as well. MVFR to IFR conditions will
prevail well before sunrise and linger through the day. Winds
will remain southeast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 920 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

Wx map shows 1022 mb sfc high over MS/AL this evening, with sfc
low pressure over W TX/OK. Southeast winds continue to pick up
across the western coastal waters, increasing across the remainder
of the eastern waters as a secondary sfc low forms off the TX
coast overnight and moves eastward Sunday. Small Craft Exercise
Caution already in place, with no changes this evening.

Areas of rain/showers with a few thunderstorms continue to
increase in areal coverage this evening along the coast into the
coastal waters. This will spread inland, expected to become a
widespread light rain shield, with intermittent periods of
moderate rainfall with the showers and possible thunderstorms.
Overall, forecast on track in showing this progression, and no
changes needed for this as well.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 508 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

AVIATION...Showers will move in through the evening, and ceilings
will lower into late tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail
from early morning through tomorrow along with occasional
reductions in vis from rain. Winds will be generally southeast
during the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

Cloud cover continues to gradually increase across the area this
afternoon underneath an active SW jet downstream of a positively
tilted trof axis stretching from the Southern Plains through the
Baja. Shallow ridge traversing the area this afternoon into this
evening will leave behind increasing SW low level flow, resulting
in a steady influx of MSTR through the night. Temperatures are
expected to fall off after sunset, but otherwise hold steady or
perhaps even climb a bit overnight. Cyclogenesis is expected to
occur late tonight along the lower to middle TX coast, with the
sfc low heading quickly east through the day SUN. Large scale
ascent from the approaching upper trof will yield widespread
rains spreading/developing across the area tonight, with
increasing albeit limited instability given rise to the prospect
of at least isolated thunderstorms. Heaviest rain and
stronger/more numerous thunderstorm activity should remain
offshore in closer proximity to the SFC low where more focused
forcing will reside. Rain will taper off gradually from west to
east through the day and into the evening as W/NW flow behind the
trof axis ushers drier air into the region.

Brief break in rainfall is expected MON with weak ridging
traversing the area, but rain chances increase again on TUE as yet
another upper trof nears and eventually pushes through the region.
There is better agreement between the ECMWF and GFS with this
feature and its associated SFC low, as they depict a shearing out
trof and weakening SFC low diving SE from near DFW TUE afternoon
to off the SRN LA coast WED morning. Bulk of the rain will occur
TUE and TUE night, though some light activity may linger into WED.

End of the week continues to look murky with some significant
differences among the global models regarding the evolution/timing
of the next (possibly more amplified) upper trof. Low end PoPs
were carried both THU and FRI, but confidence is quite low.


Light to modest east to southeast winds will prevail tonight as
high pressure departs to the east. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop across the coastal waters overnight as an area of
low pressure forms in the NW Gulf. The low will traverse the Gulf
waters moving east of the area late Sunday, with a light offshore
flow developing in its wake. Another surface low is forecast to
move across the northern Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday accompanied
by widespread showers.



AEX  45  58  46  64 /  80  80  20   0
LCH  53  65  51  67 /  90  90  20   0
LFT  51  61  51  66 /  80  90  30   0
BPT  56  68  52  67 /  80  80  10   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from 6 AM CST Sunday through Sunday
     afternoon for GMZ452-455-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday afternoon for GMZ472.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 6 AM CST Sunday through Sunday
     morning for GMZ450.



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