Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
850 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Wx map shows center of the sfc high over northern Gulf of Mexico
just off the LA coast this evening. Light southwest winds
continue over SE TX and SW LA with calm winds elsewhere. Most
areas should be either calm to light and variable overnight. With
the clear skies and continued dry airmass in place, Easter Sunday
lows expected in the mid/upper 40s across C LA north of I-10,
lower to mid 50s elsewhere, except for lower 60s along the coast.
Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

AVIATION...VFR through the period. Winds will be light and vrb
tonight and become south and gusty at times Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

Quite a nice afternoon across the forecast area, with nary a cloud
in the sky, light winds, and temperatures generally in the mid
70s. Region remains in deep NW flow aloft on the back side of a
highly amplified ERN CONUS trof, with an axis of high over E TX
imparting a light westerly flow at the SFC.

Benign weather is on tap for the next couple of days as the SFC
high traverses the area tonight and continues eastward into the SE
CONUS by MON. Aloft, ridging currently over the Central/Southern
Plains will slide overhead tomorrow, and into the Central Gulf
coast states by MON. Combination of warming thermal profiles and
return southerly flow will yield a moderating/warming temperature
trend, with high temperatures by MON reaching around 80. As for
lows, one last relatively cool morning is on tap SUN, with near
and then above normal readings expected MON and TUE respectively.

Clouds will start to impinge into the western parts of the area
by late SUN into MON, with an increase in areawide cloud cover on
TUE as boundary layer MSTR increases and SW flow aloft ushers in
increasing mid/upper level MSTR.

Still some uncertainty with the weather mid week, as global models
continue to differ on some important details. Overall, the timing
remains generally unchanged from yesterday, with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected late WED into THU as an upper
level trof and associated SFC low trek across the region. Current
progs indicate that there could be some risk of strong/severe
TSTMS, in addition to a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Activity
is currently expected to end from W to E by FRI, but this timing
is one of the points of uncertainty.


Winds will continue to transition to a southerly direction
tonight as surface high pressure pushes east of the region. An
onshore flow, modest at times, will remain in place through mid
week, with a storm system bringing a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.



AEX  46  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  54  77  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  51  78  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  56  77  63  79 /   0   0   0  10




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