Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 071710
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Shower chances will remain minimal and winds will be generally
light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Storms in the coastal waters moving westward at this time. This
overall movement will continue through the day with a few storms
expected to form down along the beaches. Otherwise... it looks a
bit warmer for aftn temps while precip chances to remain limited.
Just another typical sw La/ se Tx summer day. Current zones look
fine no updates are planned at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
For the 08/07/20 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday 12Z. Isolated
afternoon storms may develop as successive HRRR and SREF models
show very low coverage of convection along I10 corridor. At this
time, will keep mention of TS out of TAFs. Overall, winds should
remain light and variable.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Radar was noticeably quiet across the inland areas early
this morning with just isolated showers in the northern gulf
south of Atchafalaya Bay. Looking outside...thin to patchy
high clouds could be seen above with temperatures around the
area mostly in the mid to upper 70s. The coolest spot was across
our northeast areas where lower 70s prevailed. Winds were light to
calm.

LCH sounding from last night was a bit drier with precipitable was
around 1.71 compared with yesterday`s 2.18. Most of the drying
occurred aloft but also just above the surface.

GFS model today showed upper level high pressure dome to our west
with some ridging extending east into our area. Therefore...we
should see more subsidence today which bodes well for less
rainfall today across the area. That ties in nicely with the
sounding which also confirms column moisture is lower today.
Daytime heating today will be offset by said subsidence aloft so
we will likely see just a few showers and thunderstorms today
mainly either side of the Sabine Pass and into southeast Texas.
The HRRR model did show best pops for the area mentioned just
above and likely has some seabreeze component being hinted at.
Isolated storms can be expected elsewhere toward the latter half
of the afternoon.

The upper level pattern will be somewhat similar over the weekend
with perhaps a bit of an uptick in southerly flow at the surface.
Pops will tick a just a tad bit higher over the weekend mainly
over the southern half of the area.

Looking into next week...Monday and Tuesday...starts out fairly
normal for this time of year. However...Wednesday through the
rest of the week looks wet and a bit cooler with falling heights
aloft as the Dome of high pressure aloft shifts west as troughing
in the middle part of the country develops.

MARINE...
Light and variable winds this morning will shift southerly this
afternoon and continue into next week as surface high pressure
ridges westward into the northwest gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  73  95 /   0  10   0  20
LCH  76  92  76  92 /   0  30   0  30
LFT  75  93  75  93 /   0  20   0  40
BPT  76  91  77  91 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05



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