Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240444
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018


.AVIATION...Patchy low ceilings and isolated showers are expected
to expand in coverage through early morning. Prevailing lower
ceilings are expected by sunrise along with scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated storm. Ceilings will gradually improve after
sunrise and shower coverage will decrease as sunset approaches.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows very little pressure gradient over the region, with
light east to southeast winds. Aloft, a broad low at 700mb, with
a trough reflection at 500mb over E TX yielding enough lift in
this juicy tropical atmosphere (00z LCH sounding PW at 2.33") to
continue scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms this
evening.throughPer latest HRRR & 00z NAM12 guidance, this will
likely increase over LA after midnight, especially along and south
of I-10 into the coastal waters. Forecast update included
tweaking QPF and chances of SHRA/TSRA this evening and the
overnight and early morning hours Monday. Remainder of forecast on
track.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

AVIATION...A weak front has worked to around the Sabine River
this afternoon with a few showers noted along the boundary. With
the boundary in the region tonight, and moisture remaining high,
low ceilings are expected to develop late tonight. Ceilings will
gradually improve during Monday morning, however showers will
increase in coverage as well. Winds will light and generally vrb
tonight and become sw Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Weak SFC front remains over E TX, stretching N-S very near a
Beaumont to Lufkin line and on to low pressure centered west of
Tyler. Aloft, upper trof remains over east TX.

Ongoing isolated to scattered shower activity will continue into
early evening before largely dissipating inland, and in a familiar
pattern, continue over the Gulf waters and increase in coverage
during the overnight hours across coastal LA. This activity will
subsequently expand northward through Monday into East Central LA,
with E TX seeing a reprieve thanks to some relatively drier air
pushing in from the west as the upper trof and associated SFC
features weaken and begin to lift out to the NE.

As the trof continues to pull away on TUE, MSTR will return to E
TX around a WWD expanding sub-tropical ridge over the Gulf, with
areawide scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are tap WED and
THU as global models continue to depict an upper trof digging into
the Central CONUS, sending a weak frontal boundary into the
region. Rain chances decrease a bit FRI and SAT as the front
washes out and a deep layer ridge builds over the SE CONUS, with
even lower chances SUN as this feature builds WWD.

Temperatures through the period will continue to average well
above seasonal normals.

13

MARINE...
High pressure extending into the northwest Gulf will maintain a
light south to southeast flow to start the coming week. A weak
front sagging into the area Wednesday will result in variable and
at times northerly winds through Thursday, with a more prevailing
east to southeast flow developing on Friday as the front
dissipates and high pressure strengthens over the Mid Atlantic.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  88  72  90 /  40  60  20  40
LCH  74  88  74  88 /  70  60  30  50
LFT  74  89  74  89 /  40  60  40  60
BPT  74  87  75  88 /  60  40  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05


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