Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240225
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
925 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows cold front has moved well south of the coast, and
south of the 60nm coastal marine zone, with lingering showers and
a few thunderstorms over-running the cold front. Showers will
continue to decrease over the lower Acadiana parishes the next
couple of hours as the cooler and drier air filters southward. Not
often this sentence is used on July 23rd in SE TX/S LA! Anyrate,
skies are clearing along the I-10 corridor northward, with mid
60s expected by daybreak Wednesday. South of I-10, likely to make
it to the upper 60s/near 70, still pleasant for this time of year.
Ongoing forecast is on track, with no updates needed at this time.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/

AVIATION...MVFR ceilings will continue to depart the area behind
a rare July cold front through the next couple hours. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the period.
Winds will be north to northeast through the period and gusty
tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT has continued its slow and steady progress to the south and
has now cleared the inland forecast area and roughly bisects the
coastal zones from NE to SW. TSTM activity is confined mainly to
locations along and south of the boundary, with isolated/scattered
post frontal showers extending to its north, mostly over lower
Acadiana to the S/SE of LFT. Influx of drier air is underway as
noted by SFC dewpoints falling into the mid 60s along with an
erosion of significant cloud cover to the N of a Beaumont to
Marksville line.

This drier and relatively cooler airmass will continue to filter
into the region tonight amid deep and steady northerly flow
between a highly amplified upper ridge over the Rockies and trof
over the ERN CONUS. This general pattern is expected to remain in
place for the next couple of days, with the greatest impacts being
little to no cloud cover, lower humidity, and a larger diurnal
temperature range, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
or near record territory the next two to possibly 3 mornings.

All good things must come to an end, however. Pattern shifts a
bit toward the end of the week as the ridge flattens out and
recenters a little to the west while the trof to the east
weakens, with the sub-tropical ridge nosing farther to the west.
The frontal boundary is expected to begin retreating back to the
north, lifting through the coastal waters FRI night and the inland
forecast area on SAT. Meanwhile, a general weakness in the height
field is progged to remain over the NW Gulf coast region. With
the resurgence of deeper MSTR back into the area, rain chances
return to the forecast, along with warmer temperatures and
increasing humidity.

13

MARINE...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the coastal waters tonight in response to unseasonable
cold front pushing through Gulf waters. The front will usher in
a period of brisk and gusty offshore flow tonight into Wednesday
morning, with light to modest northernly winds prevailing into
Thursday. Winds will decrease and become somewhat variable from
the east Thursday night into Friday as the boundary meanders over
the Gulf waters, turning onshore again Friday night as the front
retreats back to the north, with an onshore flow prevailing into
the weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  85  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  68  87  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  67  86  67  88 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  69  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-
     470-472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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