Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 030518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 622 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

Sea fog is developing over the coastal waters and beginning to
move inland. Currently in SE TX visibilities are falling, but not
yet in south central LA. Fog may not cover the entire advisory
area, or it may dissipate earlier at some locations than what is
forecast, however the prudent decision was to go ahead and issue
the adv through mid morning for the I-10 corridor to the coast.


(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

After a mild start to the day, a warm and muggy afternoon has
unfolded across the region with temperatures currently some 10-15
degrees warmer than climo norms. Cloud cover has filled in rather
quickly through the last few hours, and should continue to do so
as we head towards the overnight hours. Cloudy skies in
combination with the warm/humid airmass overhead will hinder any
real cooling overnight, with lows only expected to fall into the
mid 60s. The moist airmass overhead will also aid in the
development of fog overnight, with areas of dense fog likely
especially along and south of I-10. Some patchy fog is already
ongoing offshore, and this should begin to spread north after
sunset, with a Dense Fog Advisory potentially being needed. With
overcast skies expected to persist through much of tomorrow, fog
will likely linger well past sunrise. Visibilities should begin to
improve through the mid-morning but will likely not become
unlimited until the late morning to early afternoon hours.

Apart from the fog, tomorrow looks to be another warm and muggy
day, with the added bonus of isolated to scattered showers. This
convection will likely begin through the mid morning hours, ahead
of a weak cold front that is expected to push through the region
during the afternoon. Conditions should improve a bit behind the
front, but the actual drier/cooler airmass will be slower to
advect into the area. By tomorrow night dewpoints should begin to
fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s, with this somewhat drier
airmass lingering through Sunday. This will keep marine fog at bay
tomorrow night and may allow for some pockets of sunshine through
the day Sunday. Sunday afternoon highs will top out in the mid 60s
to low 70s, which is still around 10 degrees above seasonal
norms. This "repreive" from the warm and muggy weather will be
brief, as post-frontal surface high pressure begins to slide off
to the east by late Sunday/early Monday, allowing winds to turn
back to an onshore flow for the start of the work week.



(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

The period will start with a high pressure system off the east coast
ridging into the forecast area with lower pressure and a frontal
system over the Plains. This will allow southerly winds off the Gulf
helping to provide unseasonably warm and muggy conditions.

As next week progresses, an upper level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico will hold steady and try to build up to the north. This will
keep the cold front over the Plains from working its way into the
forecast area and stalling to the north. Therefore, unseasonably
warm and muggy conditions will prevail through much of the week.
High temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees above climo norms
while low temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees above climo

By mid week as the front and an upper level trough try to move into
the region, a few showers may be triggered due to increase lift with
the Gulf moisture, along with some streamer showers below the cap
coming in off the Gulf. Also, depending on wind speeds, fog/low
clouds will be possible during the night and early morning hours.



(06Z TAFS)

LIFR visibilities/ceilings at BPT/LCH, and LFT/ARA by 07-08z,
expected to prevail due to the dense marine fog. Not expecting the
marine fog to reach as far inland as AEX but remain LIFR ceilings
until the cool front moves through after 15z. For BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA,
the cool front expected to lift visibilities to VFR by 16z but MVFR
ceilings likely to remain through 06z Sunday.



Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

Light onshore flow will continue this evening into tonight before
gradually shifting westerly through the morning hours and
northerly by tomorrow afternoon. Areas of marine fog will continue
through the evening hours, likely becoming dense during the
overnight hours. This fog will persist through at least midday
tomorrow and should begin to clear out as winds turn to the north
around midday. A weak cold front will move across the coastal
waters tomorrow night accompanied by scattered showers. The front
is expected to dissipate Sunday afternoon with onshore flow
resuming through early Monday resulting in the redevelopment of
marine fog.


AEX  66  78  50  66 /  10  20  10  10
LCH  66  77  58  68 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  66  80  59  69 /  10  30  10  10
BPT  65  78  59  70 /  10  10  10  10


LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for LAZ041>045-

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ215-216.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-



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