Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 200442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1142 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Ridging set up overhead combined with very dry air advecting into
the region (per today`s 12 and 00Z RAOBs) resulted in a very warm
and clear day for southeast Texas and much of Louisiana. High`s
topped out in the low 90s, but with sfc Tds only in the mid to
upper 60s, it only felt like the mid 90s outside rather than the
low 100s. It`s still hot, especially for those outside working in
the heat, but it`s not a humid heat and we`ll take it.

Clear conditions to continue into tonight and tomorrow with only
a few clouds streaming overhead. Patchy fog can be expected once
again overnight with very low expectation of dense fog conditions.
Tomorrow, expect another day with temps around 90F. Winds return
to the south, and with them, moist advection, so humidity is on
its way.



(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge across the Gulf
States northeast through the Great Lakes. Winds are light from the
east or variable around 6 mph or less across the area. Visible
satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across our region.
Afternoon temperatures have reached the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies expected with nearly calm
winds. Patchy fog likely by daybreak, but not expecting dense
fog at this time.

For Monday through Tuesday night, a dry northwest flow aloft
expected between the mid to upper level trough over the East Coast
and a mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico/South
Texas/Western Gulf of Mexico. Not expecting any precipitation, but
continued above normal temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Maximum heat index values in the lower to mid 90s expected each



(Wednesday through next Saturday)

The long range continues with mainly dry, warm weather at the
surface across SETX and SWLA. Large region of upper level
convergence and subsidence shifts off the Carolina coast while
maintaining broad ridging SW across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile upstream, the subtropical jet extends along Baja curving
NE over the Ohio to merge with the upstream pattern near the Great
Lakes region. A deep surface low will occlude over the Midwest
toward the western Great Lakes while extending across the central /
southern Plains into North Texas. The Low pressure center then fills
over Eastern Canada leaving partially detached frontal boundary,
becoming stationary over the southern Plains and TN Valley. This
frontal boundary, which guidance continues to indicate resting above
the ARKLATEX region, will serve as a focal area for any organized
showers and thunderstorms through Friday morning.

Locally, chances of POPs remain too low to keep in the forecast,
however, as this period comes into the short range outlook, the
potential for isolated, more airmass based, thunderstorms cannot be
completely ruled out. That said, low level subsidence will keep a
cap in place that would take a robust perturbation or sea breeze to
kick off any activity beyond cumulus. By Saturday, the upper
level pattern becomes a little more unsettled with regards to
little perturbations aloft, however, the overall zonal flow does
not add much room for major changes unless guidance brings about a
more organized shortwave south. Worth noting the lower
troposphere begins to show more variability on the pressure
pattern which may support Isolated activity, but there are no
signals strong enough to put that potential in the forecast right
now with confidence.



(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Little change from previous TAF thinking, with just some patchy
fog possible mainly at the southern sites late tonight resulting
in brief MVFR vsby reductions. Otherwise, VFR is expected to
prevail with light to near calm winds tonight becoming S-SE
5-10 KT during the day.




Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with
no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday
due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure
to the east and low pressure across the Plains.



AEX  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  70  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  91  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  72  89  74  89 /   0   0   0   0