Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 032316
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
616 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will gradually lower through the
evening as moisture increases. Rain chances will also increase
during the period and peak out during Saturday afternoon. Light
east to southeast winds will gradually become more north to
northeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Cloudy and warm afternoon across the area, with temperatures
generally in the upper 70s to near 80. Radar has been fairly
inactive through the day, and generally expect that will remain
the case this evening, though rain chances will begin to increase
tonight across SE TX with the approach and entrance of a CDFNT
currently near a Tyler to Austin TX line. Boundary is expected to
stall out across SE TX by SAT morning, and become increasingly
diffuse through the day. Nonetheless, a plume of very deep MSTR
characterized by progged PWATs of around 1.5 inches, which is
climatologically just above the 90th percentile for this time of
year, is anticipated to spread east into the region. Coupled with
lift provided by a shortwave trof embedded within an active sub-
tropical jet aloft, scattered to numerous showers are expected by
the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Limited
instability should keep thunderstorm activity isolated. Greatest
risk of localized HVY rain will reside over coastal SE TX in
vicinity of the SFC front, where WPC has indicated there is a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be
moderated a bit across SE TX by the front and expected rainfall,
though the rest of the area will continue to see upper 70s to near
80.

Rains will taper off from W to E during the evening and into the
overnight as the shortwave trof and deepest MSTR depart to the
east. Bit of a warming trend begins on SUN as flat ridging builds
overhead, though elevated MSTR levels and the active jet aloft
will continue to result small rain chances. Another plume of
deeper MSTR surges into the area on MON, once again enhancing rain
chances, with slightly stronger ridging nudging them back down TUE
and WED. Temperatures, meanwhile, will continue to steadily warm,
with lows for the mid-week period in the lower 70s and highs
reaching a peak on WED with upper 80s to near 90 expected.

Differences in global models begin to widen a bit by the end of
the week, but there is general consensus on the ridge flattening
out as a WRN CONUS upper low heads east while a northern stream
trof digs into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A decreasing trend
in temperatures and increasing rain chances are the result.

13

MARINE...
Winds will remain light to moderate from the southeast through
tonight between a ridge of high pressure over the eastern states
and low pressure and an accompanying cold front advancing across
the Plains. Winds will trend more easterly on Saturday ahead of
the cold front which is expected to move near the Texas coast or
just offshore where it will stall. A chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms will begin tonight along and ahead of the front.
Increasing rain chances can be expected Saturday as disturbances
aloft move across the region.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  76  59  78 /  10  50  30  20
LCH  65  77  61  78 /  20  70  60  20
LFT  63  80  62  78 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  66  76  63  77 /  30  80  80  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05



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