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895
FXUS64 KMEG 151735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1135 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 847 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated to lower morning rain chances and cloud cover in the far
east.

DISCUSSION...
Clear slot wrapping around upper level low was bringing mostly
sunny skies and dry weather to areas along the Tennessee River
this morning. Eventually clouds and a chance of rain will increase
over the area by midday. So in the meantime have lowered rain
chances in that zone. Have also adjusted afternoon rain chances
along the Mississippi river...where short term models indicate
isolated activity lingering between noon and 3pm.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

GOES water vapor imagery showed a deep closed upper low centered
east of Tupelo, along the MS/AL border early this morning. This
feature was moving slowly to the east. Surface analysis showed low
pressure centered near Camden, TN in Benton County. This system
was highly-occluded, with the detached low level warm sector along
the North Carolina coast.

For today, wrap-around light showers and drizzle will prevail,
eventually tapering off west to east through early evening. Clouds
may persist into early Sunday, especially east of the MS River.

Northwest flow aloft will deamplify with the approach of a short
wavelength ridging on Monday. Daytime temps through midweek will
average 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

The latter half of the workweek appears more unsettled, with this
morning`s model consensus significantly deeper in the depiction of
a southern branch trof. The operational GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
models close off this system as it reaches the Midsouth Thursday
morning. A slower-moving and more baroclinic system now appears
likely, with some initial thunder, more persistent and widespread
rain and even possible light snow mixture near the KY border
Friday morning.

Looking beyond the extended forecast, low amplitude northwest
flow will prevail, with seasonally mild temperatures. Models
showed significant timing differences with embedded shortwaves and
associated precip chances beyond next weekend. As such, it`s too
early to speculate on precip chances heading into the Christmas
holiday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

LIFR/IFR conditions expected to impact TAF sites this afternoon
with rain or drizzle possible. A gradual improvement is expected
to begin first at JBR by this evening, then at MEM towards
daybreak Sunday, then at remaining sites towards the end of the
period. Winds will gradually become NW between 6-10 kts.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$