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000
FXUS64 KMEG 231206
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
706 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Welcome to Fall. Early morning temperatures range from the low 60s
to the low 70s across the Midsouth with light rain falling across
most of the region. A stalled front stretches from middle
Tennessee into central Mississippi. Rain is expected to continue
across the Midsouth for the next several days. The front stalled
to our South should lift back to the North this afternoon into
tomorrow enhancing showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Temperatures today will remain below normal, but should rebound a
bit tomorrow, and will likely be a bit above normal again
Tuesday.

A weak trough will deepen West of the Mississippi over the next 24
to 48 hours resulting in weak Southwesterly flow across the
Midsouth. By midweek, the entire Western two thirds of the US will
be under the influence of a broad positively tilted trough
centered along a line from the Dakotas into the Desert Southwest.
The trough will deamplify while shifting East during the later
half of the work week. It should become centered over the
Mississippi River valley early Friday and along the East Coast
Friday night into Early Saturday. Under this progressive Fall like
pattern we will see a couple of cold fronts move across the
Midsouth, one early Wednesday and another Friday. As a result, an
enhanced chance of rain will remain in the forecast through the
work week. It looks like most of the Midsouth will see 2-4 inches
of rain over the next several days. Three-hour Flash flood
guidance is in the 2-4 inch range across most of the area.
Expected rain rates are only one quarter to one half on an inch
per hour so the potential for flooding is low. Additionally, both
dynamic and thermodynamic energy look minimal so the potential for
any strong or severe storms looks low.

Next weekend looks drier with near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Expect morning lows generally in the low to middle
60s with highs in the low to middle 80s.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

A stalled cold front will remain strewn across the area through
the period. North of the front, IFR and LIFR conds will persist
at MEM..MKL...and JBR through much of the period due to the
combination of low ceilings, -SHRA, and fog.

TUP will remain just south of the front in the warm sector, so
VFR will be the rule through the period. Winds at all sites will
be from the east 6 to 8 kts today...shifting to the southeast near
the end of the period. Most sites are expected to return to VFR
by Monday afternoon as the front finally lifts north of the area.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$