Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
845 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

The storms moving across parts of the Mid-South have weakened and
mostly have disappeared. With the exception of some showers along
the Kentucky/Tennessee border. These will likely bring some light
rain to some areas--well north of I-40. So have added some
showers and thunder into the grids. The showers that were in
Mississippi have dissipated, so have removed the showers and
thunderstorms from the forecast overnight. Also, the current
convective allowing models don`t indicate anything over night in
most of the Mid- South. The GFS still brings in some rain before
12Z in the southwest. Thus reduced most of the PoPs have midnight,
however, left the area of showers and thunderstorms in the
southwest part of the forecast area.

Everything else looks about on track. Update will be out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/


Currently weak cold/dry front was lined up just south of the
TN/MS border dotted with showers and thunderstorms from Iuka to
Holly Springs. Temperatures to the north were mainly in the low
and mid 80s with breezy west winds and drier dewpoints in the
60`s. To the south temperatures were the roughly the same but
dewpoints were still in the low 70`s.

For tonight through Sunday...scattered convection along the
boundary will push south and east of the CWA by 6pm...with a stray
strong or severe storm possible. Then eyes will focus on a
shortwave and associated MCS crossing the Central Plains tonight.
Short term models are hinting this activity decaying as it
streams over Ozarks after midnight. Have increased cloud cover
through the late night...with a threat for a few subsevere storms
potentially reaching the Mississippi river by 9am tomorrow
morning. The continued northwest flow in the upper levels coupled
with a return of deeper moisture just to our south will yield
isolated afternoon...and more numerous overnight
convection with a continued threat for a strong or severe storm.
By Sunday upper heights will start building northeast out of
Texas...pushing rain chances farther north and east as well.
Temperatures this weekend will start off below normal warming to
near normal by Sunday. A few triple digit heat indices are
anticipated for an hour our two in the west Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge will flex over the
region this period as a shortwave crosses the Midwest. Models
differ on it`s influence on precipitation chances...with the GFS
bolder and the Euro drier. It appears that the east will be more
favored for a diurnal shower or storm where 700mb temperatures
drop to around 9C. So most the Midsouth will be dry this period
with highs increasing to the low and mid 90s. Heat indices this
period will flirt with heat advisory criteria in the Delta.

End of next week...have leaned more with the warmer and drier
Euro in the extended forecast. More widespread mid 90s will be
felt with better 105F+ afternoon heat index coverage. By this
time an isolated shower or storm will be a welcome site.



00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions begin the period. Winds have been gusty this
afternoon in the vicinity of a surface boundary stretched across
north Mississippi, but have begun to subside. Lower ceilings will
build in overnight, with MVFR possible at KMKL with some light
fog, and IFR conditions possible for low stratus at KTUP in
association with the boundary.

Winds will be more westerly on early Saturday. An MCS will move
through the region from west to east during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Included VCTS for now until confidence is gained
on timing, the exception being KMKL which may be just on the
northern edge of the system based on current model trends.
Regardless, MVFR ceilings will likely prevail as the system
passes. Late in the period conditions improve back to VFR with
winds becoming southerly again.




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