232
FXUS62 KMFL 170527
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Mid level ridging will continue to build and strengthen over the
region as the upcoming weekend progresses. At the surface, high
pressure over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic will remain
in place during this time frame as well. These two features will be
the main synoptic features in the weather pattern for the weekend
which will bring dry conditions along with warm temperatures. While
this set up will favor a rather light south to southeasterly wind
flow in general, winds each afternoon will be driven by the
development of the sea breezes. High temperatures this weekend will
remain above normal as they will range from the upper 80s along the
immediate east coast to the mid to upper 90s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida. With the humidity factored in, heat
indices will rise into the upper 90s along the east coast and will
range between 100 and 105 across interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Deep-layer ridging and and dry weather will prevail across South
Florida through the end of the weekend and into much of the upcoming
work-week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this
period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge
axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA`s/GMAO Dust
Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a
saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to
middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout
ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow
aloft and above average temperatures. Given the lack of cloud cover
and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with
values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland
areas, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s
each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal
locations. The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot by
the middle of the work week, switching from southwest florida to
southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary
during the mid to late week period. There won`t be much respite
overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the
warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east
coast of South Florida.

With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent
temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees
each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory
thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable
individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without
climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and
pets. Always look before you lock!

By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River
Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and
boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United
States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region
mid-to-late week, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary
moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to
spark up higher rain chances on Thursday and Friday. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well
as if any upper level synoptic support will arrive in tandem with
this feature as the upper level low appears to be displaced well to
the north at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds through the overnight hours will increase out
of the SSE after 15z to around 10 kts. At KAPF, winds will
increase out of the SW after 17z and become more westerly as the
afternoon progresses due to the Gulf breeze pushing inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

A gentle to occasionally moderate south southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place through the upcoming weekend and into early next
week across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be
over the Gulf waters where winds will shift and become west
southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the
weekend and into the early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  90  76 /  10   0  10   0
West Kendall     93  74  92  73 /  10   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        93  76  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
Homestead        90  76  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  89  76  89  75 /  10   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  90  75  90  75 /  10   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   95  78  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  92  74  91  75 /  10   0  10   0
Boca Raton       93  75  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
Naples           89  74  90  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC