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000
FXUS62 KMFL 071732
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1232 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Not much to discuss in terms of local weather impacts through the
short term forecast period. An extremely dry parcel of air remains
over the Southern Florida peninsula this afternoon with 850mb RHs
reading less than 10% on the most recent MFL sounding. This
significant dry air coupled with a lack of synoptic and even
mesoscale forcing will lead to a dry remainder of today and a dry
Friday to close out the week. With a return to easterly flow
expected tomorrow, a few weak isolated showers will be possible for
easternmost areas, but these will be extremely short-lived and weak
in nature. The vast majority of the area will remain dry on Friday
with only a trace of rainfall expected for areas that may experience
a shower.


As high pressure propagates eastward through the day today, surface
flow will veer more easterly by the evening hours today which should
act to moderate the low temperatures this evening and subsequently,
high temperatures for Friday as well as we lose the northerly
component to the wind. Lows will generally range from the mid to
upper 60s along the coasts with mid 50s for interior areas. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

As the high-pressure system advances into the western Atlantic, a
gradual shift in wind direction to a southeasterly orientation is
anticipated in the early weekend. This shift will facilitate a
progressive increase in moisture advection, accompanied by a
moderation of temperatures during this period. While the majority
of the region is expected to remain dry on Friday and Saturday,
sufficient lower-level moisture will be present to support a
marginal chance of showers, primarily over the east coast areas
each day. Saturdays highs are forecast to reach the lower 80s in
most areas.

The meteorological pattern is set to undergo a transition on
Sunday, as an intensifying mid-level trough emerges from the
Plains and extends into the southeastern United States.
Concurrently, a cold front will advance through the Southeast,
extending into Northern and Central Florida as well as the Gulf of
Mexico. Recent ensemble guidance is converging on a scenario
where the mid-level trough digs further south, coupled with the
development of a secondary surface low over the Ohio River Valley,
subsequently tracking towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
states. While specifics remain uncertain, the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms for South Florida appears to be
increasing ahead of the frontal boundary, particularly into Sunday
afternoon and evening. Although the most potent dynamics and
instability are currently forecast to stay north of the region,
the potential for a few strong thunderstorms cannot be entirely
dismissed, given the latest model trends indicating a more
pronounced mid-level trough and further southward development of
the surface low. However, considerable uncertainty persists
regarding the exact trajectory of the surface low, which could
significantly influence the potential for strong thunderstorm
development. This aspect of the forecast will continue to be
closely monitored.

Post frontal passage, the front is expected to move through South
Florida Sunday night into early Monday, stalling just south of
the region over the Florida Straits. Current guidance suggests the
front will remain sufficiently proximate to maintain increased
cloud cover and a chance of showers, along with a breezy
northeasterly flow. Forecast uncertainty remains elevated for this
segment, given its position at the edge of the forecasting
period. Mondays high temperatures are anticipated to range from
the lower 70s in the Lake region to the upper 70s in the east
coast metropolitan areas. With a northeasterly wind shift,
Tuesdays temperatures are expected to moderate, with mid-70s west
of the Lake and around 80 degrees in the southern regions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR prevails at all terminals through the period. Surface flow
will slowly turn more Northeast over the next couple of hours.
Dry conditions and winds 10-15kts are expected through the
remainder of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds
reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this
decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger
over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging
from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by
Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the
end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend
as winds retain their onshore component.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            67  78  70  81 /   0   0  10  10
West Kendall     62  79  67  82 /   0   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        65  79  70  82 /   0   0  10  10
Homestead        66  79  70  81 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  78  70  81 /   0  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  66  78  70  81 /   0  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   64  79  69  81 /   0   0  10  10
West Palm Beach  64  77  68  81 /   0  10  10  10
Boca Raton       66  79  70  81 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           59  79  64  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto