Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 251935
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
335 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday...

A low pressure area -- currently being monitored by NHC for further
development -- will continue moving away to our northeast tonight.
Residual low-level troughing should remain in place across south
Florida with only some weak mid-level height rises noted towards
Monday evening as 500 mb ridging nudges in a bit from the
Bahamas. Southwesterly flow will prevail for most of the area from
this evening into Monday, with plentiful lower to mid
tropospheric moisture in place. The synoptic flow does appear weak
enough to allow an Atlantic sea breeze to initiate, although it
may occur rather late in the afternoon and remain pinned along the
immediate coastline. As such, the greatest shower and
thunderstorm coverage should focus along the east/northeast
portions of our area including coastal Broward and Palm Beach
Counties during the afternoon and evening. Localized flooding
remains the greatest weather related hazard given the anticipated
slow storm motions. Temperatures should remain seasonal.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The low-level flow will become more west to northwest with south
Florida located between building Gulf ridging and residual low-
level troughing to our east. There are some differences in how the
Global models are handling moisture during this time, with some
drying possible in the mid-levels given the nearby ridge and some
associated subsidence. However, projected precipitable water
values remain on the high side, so it still appears there could be
some enhancement to the daily (sea breeze driven) diurnal cycle.
Regardless, expect at least scattered shower and storm coverage
each day during the afternoon and evening. Seasonal temperatures
should continue.

Thursday through Sunday...

Atlantic ridging will remain prominent to our north allowing the low-
level flow to become more southeasterly through the period. Moisture
should again be on the increase given this flow regime with no real
reprieve expected from our generally wet pattern. Things become a
bit more murky towards the later portion of the weekend as deep
moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Dorian (or its
remnants) approaches the region, possibly leading to an uptick in
shower and storm coverage.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally benign boating conditions are expected early this week,
with the greatest hazard being scattered to at times numerous shower
and thunderstorms. Winds and waves should remain below advisory
conditions, with building waves possible in the Gulf stream towards
mid week due to a weak swell.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

Two bands of TSRA/SHRA ongoing, one from KAPF-KPBI and the other
from KFLL-KTMB. First one will become dominant with more limited
activity elsewhere through remainder of afternoon. Atlc seabreeze
meandering around, uncertain how many sites it may hit before
disrupted by convection. VCTS for all sites next few hours with
tempo for KPBI-KFLL. Activity winds down towards sunset, though
TSRA/SHRA vcnty KAPF late tonight. Monday looks similar to today
under prevailing light WSW winds.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  92  77  91 /  30  80  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  91  78  92 /  30  60  30  60
Miami            78  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  60
Naples           78  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...34/SPM
MARINE...34/SPM
AVIATION...88/ALM






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