Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290658
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday)…
The mid to upper level low continues to drift westward over the
southern portion of the region early this morning. As noted on the
latest water vapor satellite loops, there is a trend that some of
the drier air continues to wrap around the low and over South
Florida. The latest hi res model guidance is also picking up on
this which in turn would help to keep coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening reduced a little bit
across the area. Lower level moisture will still support
diurnally driven convection along the sea breezes as they develop
and push inland. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be across the interior and portions of the east coast due to
the position of the upper low and a generally light southerly
steering flow. That said storm motion today will be driven by
c-brz and outflow interactions. With the drier air remaining
somewhat intact, combined with 500mb temperatures remaining around
–7C and with rather poor lapse rates around 5.5 to 5.7 C/km,
this would limit the chances of strong thunderstorm development
this afternoon. PWAT values today are forecasted to increase to
1.6 to 1.8 inches across the region later in the day which would
be supportive of heavy downpours in the strongest thunderstorms
which combined with light steering flow could lead to localized
flooding. High temperatures today will generally range from the
upper 80s to around 90 across the east coast metro areas to the
lower 90s across the interior sections.

On Thursday, the latest consensus and ensemble models show what is
left of the mid to upper level low continuing to drift off the west
coast of South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A surge of deep
tropical moisture will advect back into the region on the east side
of the low increasing the PWAT values to  1.8 to 2.0 inches across
most of the area.  With the deeper moisture in place, this will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide.
Convection will still be diurnally driven and focused along sea
breeze boundary interactions. The highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior and west coast in the
afternoon and evening hours as low level ridge builds and steering
flow turns back more from the southeast. The potential for
flooding will remain in place especially over the urbanized and
low lying areas. With the increased amount of moisture, a strong
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds,
however, the main hazard will be the repeated rounds of potential
heavy downpours with the strongest thunderstorms. High temperatures
on Thursday will continue to remain on the warm side as they will
rise to around 90 across the east coast metro areas and into the
lower 90s across the interior and west coast.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)…

For the end of the week and into the upcoming holiday weekend, the mid
to upper level low will have dissolved, and a ridge of high pressure
will build in across the region at low to mid levels. This will
allow a return to a more typical summertime pattern. With a
moderate east to southeasterly flow, scattered to locally numerous
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible each day along
the sea breezes as they push inland and moisture levels remain
hovering around normal. The highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will remain over the interior and west coast due to
the east to southeasterly wind flow in place. High temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week will generally range
from the upper 80s to around 90 across the east coast metro areas
to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

The latest consensus among the ensembles of the global models
show typical summertime pattern continuing into the middle of
next week.


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions should prevail outside brief periods of MVFR conditions
along Atlantic terminals late morning and afternoon in association
with any storms around the area. Same at APF but the concerns
there are later in the afternoon/evening. Given confidence of
storms impacting terminals is low/moderate at best, and that
should their do should be brief, will handle that with amendments.
For now included VCTS. Light winds will give way to SE wind 5-10
kts by late morning all sites with c-brz at APF around mid
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across
the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the rest of the week and into the
upcoming holiday weekend. There could be some easterly wind surges
during this time frame which will allow for SCEC conditions at times
especially over the Atlantic waters. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and thunderstorms will continue each day across the local
waters through the rest of the week. Winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
With the moderate east to southeasterly wind flow remaining in place as
the week progresses, this will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
across the east coast beaches during this time frame. This risk
will increase over the east coast beaches by late this week and
into the upcoming holiday weekend as surges of stronger east to
southeasterly winds may happen from time to time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  90  79 /  60  40  60  20
West Kendall     91  76  91  78 /  60  30  60  20
Opa-Locka        91  77  90  79 /  60  40  60  20
Homestead        89  77  89  78 /  50  30  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  79 /  60  40  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  88  79 /  60  30  60  20
Pembroke Pines   90  77  90  79 /  60  40  60  20
West Palm Beach  89  78  88  79 /  60  30  60  20
Boca Raton       91  77  90  79 /  60  30  60  20
Naples           90  76  90  76 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Today through Thursday and Aviation/Marine...CWC
Thursday Night through Tuesday...CWC

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