Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 161348
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
848 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

.UPDATE...

Quiet conditions will continue with high pressure in control.
Adjusted cloud cover upwards just a bit in response to mid/high
clouds streaming into northern portions of our area. Also added
some low end PoPs for the offshore Atlantic waters where a weak
convergence axis was producing some light showers. Otherwise the
forecast is in great shape, and no additional meaningful changes
are anticipated.

A high rip current risk remains for Palm Beach and northern
Broward County beaches through this evening, with a moderate risk
extending into Miami-Dade County.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Scattered
low cloud layer 3,500-4,000 ft may become briefly BKN at east
coast sites through 15z, with gradually increasing mid/high clouds
above 12,000 ft as the day progresses. Wind N-NW 7-10 knots
through 15z, then increasing to 10-12 knots after 15z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: Another cool morning across South Florida.
Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s. High pressure locked in
place with northerly wind flow today. A dry and sunny day across
South Florida with high temps in the upper 60s around the Lake to
low 70s.

Temperatures tonight will be warmer then the past few nights with
lows around Lake Okeechobee region in the mid 40s, upper 40s
around 50 for Gulf coast, mid to upper 50s for the east coast
metro.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Not much changes to end the week and for
the start of the weekend with high pressure in place wind will
gradually veer to northeast then easterly. Temperatures will
continue to slowly moderate to the mid and upper 70s by Saturday
until a cold front approaches the region Sunday.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: Models continue to agree in the extended
forecast with a mid to upper level trough sweeping across the CONUS
late this week. A surface low associated with the trough will have a
cold front to the south. The front will be moving across the Gulf
and into our region late this weekend. Timing really has not
changed too much with latest model runs still showing the frontal
passage Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Still a few days away
we will continue to monitor the timing but models have been fairly
consistent the past few runs. With the front an increase in rain
chances across the region, most of the upper level dynamics to
support thunder will remain north of the region, but can`t rule
out a slight chance of thunder and will leave it in the forecast
for now Sunday afternoon.

Colder temperatures and a dry air mass behind the front on Monday
with lows Monday morning ranging from the low 40s around the Lake
to low 50s over the east coast metro. As high pressure builds and
moves eastward into the Atlantic by Tuesday. The northerly wind
and cold air advection will be short-lived as the location of the
high moving east will veer our winds to easterly and
southeasterly, moderating temperatures by mid next week.

MARINE...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern across the local
South Florida waters. Northerly winds will become more northeasterly
to easterly as we move throughout the remainder of the week. Seas in
the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf stream will continue to build
to 4 to 6 feet. Seas in the Gulf will be 2 to 3 feet. Seas will
gradually subside beginning Thursday through the end of the week.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period. BKN
ceilings in the 3,500-4,000 ft range over east coast sites will
prevail through about 15z, with gradual scattering of this layer
as high clouds increase from the west. At KAPF, only mid/high
clouds expected. Wind N-NW 7-10 knots through 14z, then increasing
to 10-12 knots from 14z through 00z.

BEACH FORECAST...
There is a high risk of rip currents at Palm Beach and
Broward county beaches today with a northerly swell of 2 to 3 feet
moving down the Atlantic coast. There is also a moderate risk of rip
currents at the Miami Dade county beaches.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure in place across the region with a cool and dry
airmass in place. Northerly winds around 10 mph today. Relative
humidities over interior southwest Florida will be in the mid 30s
today.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  57  74  60 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  59  75  63 /   0  10  10  10
Miami            72  59  75  62 /   0  10  10  10
Naples           69  51  74  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...34/SPM
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...59/RM
BEACH FORECAST...33/Kelly





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