869
FXUS62 KMFL 101106
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 705 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    - Elevated risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches
      through at least mid-week.

    - Patchy fog possible across inland and SW Florida early this
      morning.

    - Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the
      upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Surface high pressure currently centered over the eastern Gulf will
advect over the Florida Peninsula through mid-week while a stronger
mid-level and upper-level ridge builds simultaneously. This will
create a highly stable environment, and additionally some of the
modestly deeper moisture across the area will get filtered out with
PWATs falling to 1.0-1.1" versus the 1.3-1.5" the last couple of
days. Therefore, even though we remain in an easterly surface flow
pattern under this high pressure regime, the afternoon Gulf breeze
is not expected to produce much shower activity given the drier air
column. Overall, PoPs will be at 10% or less across South Florida
through Wednesday and the highest of this will be towards the Gulf
coast.

With weak winds in the late night hours early this morning, patchy
fog will be possible across inland and Southwest Florida late
tonight up until a couple hours after daybreak that can reduce
visibilities on the roadways. High temperatures the next couple days
are expected in the mid to upper 80s for most locations, though some
spots in the interior might reach 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

As we approach the late week period and the first half of the
upcoming weekend, a fairly potent shortwave trough will advect
eastward from the Texas/Louisiana area underneath a larger scale
trough over the northern US. Given the strong ridge pattern over the
Florida Peninsula, this shortwave will weaken in its approach to
South Florida as well as its attendant cold front. Because of the
front and shortwave weakening in their approach, any rainfall we
get is not likely to be of the widespread heavy rain and
thunderstorm variety. Instead we are likely to see a more messy
coverage of showers and thunderstorms with lower amounts of
rainfall. QPF is still under an inch for a span of a few days
Thursday through Saturday. The bulk of this looks to occur on
Friday as this will be when the strongest energy and vorticity
advection occurs from the shortwave trough before it departs this
weekend. While there certainly can be some heavier pockets of
rain, the general consensus in long term guidance is that QPF will
be rather meager across the region.

For the very end of the forecast period, guidance is suggesting the
potential for another shortwave to form over the Gulf and cross into
South Florida on Sunday into Monday with more increased rain
chances. However, uncertainty is high with this given it is at the
tail end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will fall slightly for Friday as the cold front
washes out, but most areas will still be in the low to mid 80s or
even upper 80s for some interior locations. Overnight lows will be
in the 60s each night for most areas, although east coast locations
will continue to be around 70 each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the period. East-southeast winds
are forecast to develop by the late morning hours and persist into
the afternoon hours at all east coast terminals. Gulf breeze
development is forecast at APF by around 18Z. Winds will become
light and variable after sunset this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  72  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     86  67  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        85  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        84  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  82  71  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  82  71  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   85  71  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  83  70  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       83  71  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           87  67  87  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi